Jake Gardiner signs with Carolina [4 years, $4.05mil AAV]

[Guilt Trip]

Gardiner has 30 giveaways in 19 playoff games. 

This isn't actually true. He has 36 in 26 playoff games or 1.38 per game. Which is a slightly lower rate than Drew Doughty with his 118 in 84 games or 1.40.

I wouldn't read into those stats. I Remeber watching a game and Gord Miller was talking about giveaways and Gardiner. Gardiner was credited for 1 gv and Miller and the crew pointed out at least 5. Miller went on to say something like I just can't count or something lol.

 

[mr grieves]

Slice and dice it however you?d like, but Gardiner and Ceci do not occupy the same niche.
Gardiner ?> Muzzin
Zaitsev ?> Ceci
Hainsey ?> Barrie

Niches? Why not look at this more holistically? Icetime and cap dollars are limiting factors, sure, but no need to overthink it: you need 4-5 good defensemen to be good.

Rielly + Barrie + Gardiner + Muzzin + Dermott > Rielly + Barrie + Muzzin + Dermott + Ceci

Gardiner for Ceci is especially a downgrade when they're starting the season without Dermott and ending it with the departures of at least one and probably both of Barrie and Muzzin. That means the 2020-21 offseason starts with a defense core of.... two.

 

[Bates]

Slice and dice it however you?d like, but Gardiner and Ceci do not occupy the same niche.
Gardiner ?> Muzzin
Zaitsev ?> Ceci
Hainsey ?> Barrie

Niches? Why not look at this more holistically? Icetime and cap dollars are limiting factors, sure, but no need to overthink it: you need 4-5 good defensemen to be good.

Rielly + Barrie + Gardiner + Muzzin + Dermott > Rielly + Barrie + Muzzin + Dermott + Ceci

Gardiner for Ceci is especially a downgrade when they're starting the season without Dermott and ending it with the departures of at least one and probably both of Barrie and Muzzin. That means the 2020-21 offseason starts with a defense core of.... two.

I've read here that Gardiner is better than Muzzin. If so why would we not be able to sign Muzzin for less than Gardiner??

 

[Kin]

I look at it a little differently...he's just been acquired by a much better team with more resources to help him become a better hockey player and earn himself a longer term deal, but that's up against the cap with a pretty important RFA to sign with hardly a smidgen of room for error.

So he can have his $4.3m, or he can elect for arbitration where there's never any guarantee on what the Leafs will want to do.

But the issue isn't how Ceci views the Leafs or how you look at Ceci, it's how the Leafs see Ceci and if 200k is the price of conveying that they really want him in the top 4 then it's a price they were clearly willing to pay.

Again, if the Leafs were perfectly happy to lose Ceci for nothing then there were all manner of ways they could have approached things. That doesn't appear to be the case though.

 

[Kin]

I wouldn't read into those stats. I Remeber watching a game and Gord Miller was talking about giveaways and Gardiner. Gardiner was credited for 1 gv and Miller and the crew pointed out at least 5. Miller went on to say something like I just can't count or something lol.

I think it's pretty clear from that post that I don't take the giveaway stat seriously. Of all of the post-lockout defensemen I looked at casually the one with the highest credited amount of giveaways per game was Scott Niedermayer. Regardless of how it's tallied, it's not a good measurement of a player's value.

 

[herman]

Slice and dice it however you?d like, but Gardiner and Ceci do not occupy the same niche.
Gardiner ?> Muzzin
Zaitsev ?> Ceci
Hainsey ?> Barrie

Niches? Why not look at this more holistically? Icetime and cap dollars are limiting factors, sure, but no need to overthink it: you need 4-5 good defensemen to be good.

Rielly + Barrie + Gardiner + Muzzin + Dermott > Rielly + Barrie + Muzzin + Dermott + Ceci

Gardiner for Ceci is especially a downgrade when they're starting the season without Dermott and ending it with the departures of at least one and probably both of Barrie and Muzzin. That means the 2020-21 offseason starts with a defense core of.... two.

Even more holistically: where?s Marner in this equation?

 

[Bullfrog]

I've read here that Gardiner is better than Muzzin. If so why would we not be able to sign Muzzin for less than Gardiner??

Gardiner is better than Muzzin at certain things, but on the whole, I think just about everyone would have Muzzin ranked higher. I can't really answer your question though, because it's based on a false or presumed premise. You're also not mentioning that everyone in this thread thinks this deal is excellent value.

I will say there's zero chance Muzzin comes in less than $4.05.

 

[Kin]

I can't really answer your question though, because it's based on a false or presumed premise. You're also not mentioning that everyone in this thread thinks this deal is excellent value.

Also, NHL free agency isn't a perfect market. Guys get overvalued and undervalued.

 

[ZBBM]

Did I read correctly that Gardiner's contract is the same AAV as his previous one?  If so, how many times does that happen to a UFA in his prime (or close to it)?

If this is correct, I'd say the market has Gardiner's valued pegged pretty accurately.  Carolina got a "steal" only in the sense that some people (I imagine including Gardiner's camp) thought he would get more, perhaps much more.

I think we would have, except for his back problems.

 

[Bates]

I've read here that Gardiner is better than Muzzin. If so why would we not be able to sign Muzzin for less than Gardiner??

Gardiner is better than Muzzin at certain things, but on the whole, I think just about everyone would have Muzzin ranked higher. I can't really answer your question though, because it's based on a false or presumed premise. You're also not mentioning that everyone in this thread thinks this deal is excellent value.

I will say there's zero chance Muzzin comes in less than $4.05.

That's what Team Gardiner thought as well so certainly not impossible.

 

[mr grieves]

Even more holistically: where?s Marner in this equation?

Probably on a 3-year bridge.

But why stop there?

Who are the Raptors starters this year?
What's the housing stock around the Scotiabank Center look like?
Are there enough condo-lobby eateries to serve an extra X number of millionaire athletes?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Did I read correctly that Gardiner's contract is the same AAV as his previous one?  If so, how many times does that happen to a UFA in his prime (or close to it)?

If this is correct, I'd say the market has Gardiner's valued pegged pretty accurately.  Carolina got a "steal" only in the sense that some people (I imagine including Gardiner's camp) thought he would get more, perhaps much more.

I think we would have, except for his back problems.

Probably not outrageous to say that waiting on the Leafs/Marner cost him some money too. There might have been a team or two who offered him more money on July 1st but ended up spending it elsewhere.

 

[Kin]

Would the Leafs D be better with a Gardiner instead of Ceci: yeah very much so.

Would the Leafs be able to sign Marner with Gardiner signed (assuming Ceci is traded further for a similar option) without losing another depth forward like Johnsson/Kapanen: maaaaybe? Certainly not at Gardiner?s initial ask.

See, right now, this to me is sort of the perfect issue with the Leafs. They didn't have the money to sign Gardiner and have a much better D because they decided to give 6.6 million dollars to two depth forwards because right now it looks like none of the team's second round or lower forward picks from the 2015-2017 drafts are going to be legitimate options. 

That's not a great statement.

 

[Kin]

Also, let's not mince words about it. If it comes down to Gardiner vs. Muzzin, I can see arguments either way. Personally, I might come down slightly in favour of Muzzin.

If it's a 1st round pick and Durzi and Grundstrom and Gardiner at 4 million per vs. Muzzin at whatever it'll take to get him signed? Then choosing Muzzin is right up there with the terrible GMing calls in Leafs history.

 

[herman]

Was Gardiner a 4M signing at the deadline?

I have a hard time saying with certainty that we could have netted Gardiner at a significant discount or that Marner will assuredly sign a 9M 3yr bridge

 

[herman]

Would the Leafs D be better with a Gardiner instead of Ceci: yeah very much so.

Would the Leafs be able to sign Marner with Gardiner signed (assuming Ceci is traded further for a similar option) without losing another depth forward like Johnsson/Kapanen: maaaaybe? Certainly not at Gardiner?s initial ask.

See, right now, this to me is sort of the perfect issue with the Leafs. They didn't have the money to sign Gardiner and have a much better D because they decided to give 6.6 million dollars to two depth forwards because right now it looks like none of the team's second round or lower forward picks from the 2015-2017 drafts are going to be legitimate options. 

That's not a great statement.

Yes to this. There is only Dermott to show for it, and 1.3 seasons of Muzzin so far.

 

[princedpw]

I continue to be amazed by this contract. Is it the back issues?

If you look at the advanced stats, Gardiner is amazing.  If you just look at points, he?s also pretty great.  Why is he earning 4mil vs Myers 6mil?  The only thing Myers has on him is handedness.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Ok everyone I'm at a point where I've emotionally accepted that Gardiner is no longer a Leaf.

*sees that the last player to wear #51 with the Hurricanes was Tomas Kaberle*

 

[Kin]

Was Gardiner a 4M signing at the deadline?

I have a hard time saying with certainty that we could have netted Gardiner at a significant discount or that Marner will assuredly sign a 9M 3yr bridge

All year long there were reports that despite the Leafs cap situation Gardiner was still interested in working something out with the Leafs. Did that necessarily mean 4 million per? No but it's a pretty good indication that a team friendly deal could have been worked out and in the scenario I'm talking about Gardiner at 5 or 5.5 million isn't much different from than Gardiner at 4.

Regardless though the graveyard of Leafs GMs is full of tombstones whose epitaphs read "But it seemed like a good idea at the time". If Dubas wants to keep himself in fancy check patterned dress shirts he'll have to get used to being judged on results and this looks like his first real stinker.

 

[Deebo]

I think that's where I disagree. Not so much that teams would be lining up to pay Ceci that much but that free agency wouldn't have held appeal to him even if it was after arbitration.

I tend to think that if a player isn't wanted, if it's made known he isn't wanted, and isn't likely to see a lot of playing time that they'd probably be alright with going elsewhere.

I think there is something to that idea, that a player would be alight with going elsewhere if he wasn't going to be given ice time or wasn't wanted.

However, I don't think that would have been the case with Ceci. He hasn't really earned a huge fortune yet and there would be a real chance that it would take him 3-4 years to earn that 4.3M QO should he have ended up a UFA. I think a player in his situation would find it very difficult to walk away from that kind of guaranteed money. It would be a massive financial risk on his part.

In free agency, I would guess he was looking at 1M maybe 1.5M maximum on a one year deal. If he had another sub-par year and he might be out of the league all together or going to camps on PTOs.