Jays Roster Discussion

[Kin]

Estrada was never an elite pitcher. He had two pretty good back to back years(3.5 and 3.6 bWAR's) but even still that was in significantly less than 200 innings and they were both with pretty high FIPs(because he's always had trouble keeping the ball in the park, as we've seen this year, if he's not effectively the best pitcher in the league at hit suppression he's going to have real problems).

I don't know how much you want to invest in the idea of what will be a 35 year old consistently delivering a career performance year-in and out. I think we saw enough from Dickey how that isn't a great investment.

 

[Captain Canuck]

I stand corrected on the options, but in any event the Jays will be the ones to decide what they want to do with Bautista. I still don't believe re-negotiating a contract with Jose is one of the possibilities. He was lucky to get his current deal with the team IMO. They didn't exactly rush out to sign him last off-season did they?

You are entitled to your opinions, I just don't see how bringing back older players who you can dump this season is particularly wise for the future. You aren't going to move the Martin and Tulo contracts and have a big decision to make on Donaldson in the next year.
I heard the Sparkman rumour and think that is dumb as well. If they wanted Sparkman that badly they could have kept him and gave up nothing. To give him back to KC and then trade for him a month later is poor asset management.
You saw what the 2017 team did and yet you want to bring back the same roster and expect a different result?
If this team doesn't start building with an eye to the future you will be left with an old expensive mediocre roster with no chance at the playoffs...been there, done that!

I say buy low on both players.  At worst we will get similar results to what they are doing now.  However both could turn out to be incredible bargains, particularly Estrada.  He was an elite pitcher not long ago.  The Jays need to fill out the rotation and they are extremely thin in the outfield.  Bautista has fielded extremely well this year and he has had ok production at the plate.

It's not time to rebuild yet.  I understand your frustration, but the Jays' window is open for one more season while they still have Stroman/Donaldson/Sanchez/Pillar/Martin/Tulo.  It's just not time yet IMO.  Actually they face weak teams for the next three series, who knows what can happen.  They can throw in the towel now and get three lousy prospects like Sparkman, or they can keep going with what they have and see what happens.  IMO they should do a full scorched earth rebuild after next season if they continue to play poorly.  I don't think the time is right currently.

I'm not advocating for a full out rebuild yet either, but definitely have to move some of the older guys out now. Liriano, Estrada, Joe Smith, Barney, and Bautista if you can.
You keep Stroman, Osuna, Sanchez, Pillar, maybe Travis and that becomes your core to build around. Tulo and Martin stay because you can't move those contracts and then Donaldson you have to make a big decision on next year.
The most pressing needs for next year are going to be finding 1-2 starting pitchers and 1-2 outfielders. I could live with another year of Bautista if there are no better options, but don't want to see Estrada back at all. Someone like Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb would be preferable.

I'm not frustrated in the least, could tell early on that it was a lost season. Like I said I don't want to see an old, expensive non-competitive team a few seasons from now and then we spend 20 years out in the wilderness...been there, done that! The next core is already in place, just a matter of adding a few more younger guys with cheaper, controllable contracts (Refsnyder is a start) and then bringing up the Bichettes, Guerreros and Biggios.

As for this season if you think the Jays have any chance you are lying to yourself. Do the math: 41-19, 42-18...that is what it would take at minimum to make the playoffs. Getting to .500 would be a lofty goal at this point.

 

[sickbeast]

Estrada was never an elite pitcher. He had two pretty good back to back years(3.5 and 3.6 bWAR's) but even still that was in significantly less than 200 innings and they were both with pretty high FIPs(because he's always had trouble keeping the ball in the park, as we've seen this year, if he's not effectively the best pitcher in the league at hit suppression he's going to have real problems).

I don't know how much you want to invest in the idea of what will be a 35 year old consistently delivering a career performance year-in and out. I think we saw enough from Dickey how that isn't a great investment.

Estrada's stats were at the top of the league for two seasons and he was lights out in the playoffs.  The way you constantly disagree with everyone here gets really boring really quickly.  Please go away and stick to hockey.  You don't know what you're talking about.  If you're going to disagree with someone at least get it right.

 

[Kin]

Estrada's stats were at the top of the league for two seasons and he was lights out in the playoffs.  The way you constantly disagree with everyone here gets really boring really quickly.  Please go away and stick to hockey.  You don't know what you're talking about.  If you're going to disagree with someone at least get it right.

You'll notice I listed actual stats in my post whereas you haven't. Estrada's "stats" range from good to bad in those years. He was top of the league in H/9 and was top 10 in WHIP and ERA+ for both years but he was never top 10 in IP, WAR, BB/9, HR/9, K/9, FIP or anything else.

So, again, two good years but nothing elite. And what largely drove his good WHIP and ERA numbers, hit suppression, isn't a stat you should put a ton of money on getting better with age.

Lastly, I don't make this personal and am using stats based arguments. You've got no standing to tell me where to post and if you don't like what I post you're free to either not respond or just generally get bent.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Jays GM Atkins and Shapiro both believe the Jays... "underperformed and underachieved both offensively and defensively this year"...

?We still feel like we have a great team for 2018 ? that we?ll need to add to,? said Atkins. ?That could mean subtraction from this team. It might not. We would hope to and like to for this team to remain relevant and a contending team, potentially. Now I think the odds of that have decreased dramatically, but we still feel confident we can put a quality team on the field.?

Source:  theathletic,com


While they sound like they've thrown in the towel on the season, so to speak, don't tell that to Josh Donaldson or Aaron Sanchez.  They believe the team has enough time to turn things around.  Striving for a sense of positivity in a season of negativity all around is not a bad thing.  Believing that they can actually mitigate a complete and total turnaround is something else.  The Blue Jays are gonna have to prove it on the field the rest of the way.

 

[Andy007]

I don't know how much you want to invest in the idea of what will be a 35 year old consistently delivering a career performance year-in and out. I think we saw enough from Dickey how that isn't a great investment.

Dickey was 38 when he got here. From ages 35 through 37 he was consistently great. And he was a knuckleballer with a fastball in the low-80's. So I'm not sure how that relates to Estrada and his hypothetical success as a 34-36 year old (If anything, really, this all supports your argument).

With Estrada, for me the question/concern is about fastball velocity and if/when it's going to drop. He's actually up from last year and his K rate has improved. He has been hurt by the homerun (more than usual and, imo, mostly as a result of the juiced ball/bat bull that is going on this year), porous outfield defense and some major command struggles. His FIP is actually a full run lower than his ERA. I'd be fine with a one-year deal and a team option for the 2nd and, with some fine tuning and an improved defense behind him, I can see a really strong bounce-back year (or two).

 

[cabber24]

I heard a rumor on TSN that the Jays are going to keep both Bautista and Estrada and sign them both to contract extensions.

I would be on board for resigning both.

 

[Kin]

Dickey was 38 when he got here. From ages 35 through 37 he was consistently great. And he was a knuckleballer with a fastball in the low-80's. So I'm not sure how that relates to Estrada and his hypothetical success as a 34-36 year old (If anything, really, this all supports your argument).

I may have written that paragraph poorly. Like you say, Dickey was a knuckleballer and as a result had a different trajectory with regards to his age. My point there was that the Jays paid such a high price for him based largely on a career year(he'd been good the previous two years, with WAR's of 3.6 both years, but in his Cy Young year he jumped to 5.8).

So I guess it's a little disjointed but all I mean is you shouldn't expect regular, non-knuckleball pitchers to match or improve on their career years at age 35 and you definitely shouldn't negotiate with them on that basis, the way the Jays sort of did with the Mets for Dickey.

With Estrada, for me the question/concern is about fastball velocity and if/when it's going to drop. He's actually up from last year and his K rate has improved. He has been hurt by the homerun (more than usual and, imo, mostly as a result of the juiced ball/bat bull that is going on this year), porous outfield defense and some major command struggles. His FIP is actually a full run lower than his ERA. I'd be fine with a one-year deal and a team option for the 2nd and, with some fine tuning and an improved defense behind him, I can see a really strong bounce-back year (or two).

I think you're getting at why FIP can be a valuable predictor. For the last 5 years Estrada's FIP has been fairly consistent, ranging from 3.86 to 4.88(and both of those are his last 2 Brewer years, with the Jays it's between 4.15 and 4.52) while his ERA has jumped around by 2 runs or so. He's not great in terms of walks allowed, he gives up too many HR and, before this season anyway, he hasn't struck many guys out. That makes his actual results largely dependent on things outside of his control like BABIP and the defense behind him.

I'm not as onboard as sum with the idea that pitcher's have very little input in how many hits they give up but I do think there's a lot of random chance in there so I think for Estrada to have the sorts of years he had in the two years prior, realistically, he's got to become one of the very best pitchers in the league at minimizing hits allowed. That strikes me as unlikely.

So I think he can be of some value going forward but I wouldn't be surprised if he hits a point where his FIP and his ERA sort of line up. A 4.00 ERA pitcher can be valuable but, you know, I don't know if it's valuable enough to not look to add assets instead.

 

[sickbeast]

Estrada's stats were at the top of the league for two seasons and he was lights out in the playoffs.  The way you constantly disagree with everyone here gets really boring really quickly.  Please go away and stick to hockey.  You don't know what you're talking about.  If you're going to disagree with someone at least get it right.

You'll notice I listed actual stats in my post whereas you haven't. Estrada's "stats" range from good to bad in those years. He was top of the league in H/9 and was top 10 in WHIP and ERA+ for both years but he was never top 10 in IP, WAR, BB/9, HR/9, K/9, FIP or anything else.

So, again, two good years but nothing elite. And what largely drove his good WHIP and ERA numbers, hit suppression, isn't a stat you should put a ton of money on getting better with age.

Lastly, I don't make this personal and am using stats based arguments. You've got no standing to tell me where to post and if you don't like what I post you're free to either not respond or just generally get bent.

You're full of shit.  Here are his stats:

2015 3.13era 181.0ip .203opp.avg. 1.04whip
2016 3.48era 176.0ip .203opp.avg. 1.12whip

Those are elite stats.  He has been at the top of the league for the past two seasons.  Up there with the very best.  As usual you add nothing to the forum but your own inflated ego.  It must be pretty sad to have to try to bring others down to your level.  Please spare me your bull#$#% and if you're going to disagree with me, at least base it on something factual, not some random stat that you pulled out of your ass.

 

[Kin]

Those are elite stats.

No, they're not. A 3.48 ERA is not a number that places him among baseball's best. Neither are sub-200 innings pitched(he ranked 25th in 2015, 30th in 2016). He had some good numbers, like I acknowledged, but nobody took him seriously as a Cy Young candidate in either year(a 10th place finish in 2015, no votes in '16) because, again, he did not pitch enough at a high enough level.

And all of the numbers I used are easy enough to look up on Baseball Reference. Whether you can wrap your head around them is up to you.

 

[herman]

 

[sickbeast]

Those are elite stats.

No, they're not. A 3.48 ERA is not a number that places him among baseball's best. Neither are sub-200 innings pitched(he ranked 25th in 2015, 30th in 2016). He had some good numbers, like I acknowledged, but nobody took him seriously as a Cy Young candidate in either year(a 10th place finish in 2015, no votes in '16) because, again, he did not pitch enough at a high enough level.

And all of the numbers I used are easy enough to look up on Baseball Reference. Whether you can wrap your head around them is up to you.

Ok so I guess all these people are idiots and don't know what they're talking about:

https://medium.com/the-unbalanced/how-is-marco-estrada-still-underrated-4dd5c1052c60

https://jaysjournal.com/2017/05/22/blue-jays-estradas-value-keeps-going/

http://nationalpost.com/g00/sports/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-pitcher-marco-estrada-has-travelled-a-long-road-from-the-tough-side-of-town-to-the-toast-of-toronto/wcm/2c7d86d0-ab26-4da0-bb95-1e722d6f9570?i10c.referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.ca%2F

http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/mlb/news/marco-estrada-playoffs-pitchers-changeup-home-run-fly-ballb/n2xzyia6hhue12zkym453v0z4

https://calltothepen.com/2016/06/06/toronto-blue-jays-marco-estrada-impressive-officially-ace-conversation/

Marco Estrada has come into 2017 healthy and with the same elite stuff he has showcased since arriving in Toronto

With the arsenal that Estrada relies on, it?s entirely possible that he could continue his elite production over the next several years.

Blue Jays pitching coach Pete Walker said Estrada has the respect of every guy in the clubhouse because of the way he carries himself and the work he?s done to become an elite pitcher.

Make a list of the best changeups in baseball. Cole Hamels comes to mind. Does Marco Estrada? He should. Estrada has an elite 21.63 percent whiff rate with the pitch, putting the offering among the league leading pitches for whiff rate.

Often you will find a converted starter find success as a reliever, but Estrada has become elite while staying in the starting rotation.

Pete Walker was one of those people quoted.  I guess you must just know more than him, right?

People like you truly are the scourge of the internet.  You're completely full of hot air.  Full of yourself.  Always talking down others baselessly, disagreeing for no reason other than to pretend that you're "right".  Get a life.

 

[Kin]

Ok so I guess all these people are idiots and don't know what they're talking about:

No, they're just exaggerating. Except for the one about the swing and miss rate on his change-up. I'm pretty sure the topic of conversation wasn't "Does Marco Estrada have a good swing and miss rate on one of his pitches" though.

Pete Walker was one of those people quoted.  I guess you must just know more than him, right?

No, but I think numbers like IP, WAR and FIP, are more objective than he is. Coaches talk up their players. It's not that tricky a concept.

 

[sickbeast]

:

I'm going to stick to another forum to talk about the Blue Jays.  Later guys.  Enjoy your time with Nik the Troll.

 

[herman]

 

[sickbeast]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

 

[CarltonTheBear]

People like you truly are the scourge of the internet.  You're completely full of hot air.  Full of yourself.  Always talking down others baselessly, disagreeing for no reason other than to pretend that you're "right".  Get a life.

But that's all you've do... ah forget about it you seem to have left anyway.

 

[Frank E]

I'm starting to think that Tulo just doesn't like playing baseball any more.

 

[sickbeast]

People like you truly are the scourge of the internet.  You're completely full of hot air.  Full of yourself.  Always talking down others baselessly, disagreeing for no reason other than to pretend that you're "right".  Get a life.

But that's all you've do... ah forget about it you seem to have left anyway.

Please show me one example.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Please show me one example.

Literally every single one of your posts in this discussion had at least one personal insult towards Nik:

Please go away and stick to hockey.  You don't know what you're talking about.  If you're going to disagree with someone at least get it right.

As usual you add nothing to the forum but your own inflated ego.

People like you truly are the scourge of the internet.  You're completely full of hot air.  Full of yourself.

All he did was disagree with an opinion you posted on an internet discussion forum in a completely reasonable manner and you reacted in a completely unreasonable manner. I don't care what kind of opinion you have of Nik or any other poster here, you can't launch into attacks like that simply because somebody thinks that you're wrong on the internet.

Seriously, if you can't handle people disagreeing with you then just leave. You've threatened to do it like half a dozen times anyway. Including like an hour ago.