Jets @ Leafs - Mar. 9th, 7:00pm - TSN4, Fan 590

[Bender]

Now Keefe knows what it's like to lose 3 in a row.

If the Leafs forwards couldn't score 4 or more goals every game, there'll be more coming with Andersen in net.

Last goal was on him.  We all know you only show up to bash Andersen, but please explain how the middle 2 were his fault.  Especially the second goal, which really turned the tide for WPG.

Save percentage .826 says it all.

Yet somehow 12-5-2?

Andersen only won maybe 2 of those because of his play

Nah.  That?s not true.

He's got a .903% on the season. He's actually an issue. Leafs aren't going to get over the top with this guy. Probably held onto him 1 year too long like Babcock. Should have done everything to move him this past summer but couldn't get a deal I guess

I dunno all Canadian teams goalie stats are trash this year.  How many wins should he have in 19 starts if he was playing ?well??

There's only a small group of bad goalies who are bad in the Canadian division playing worse than Andersen. Koskinen, Holtby & Murray. Like come on already. Smith, Allen, Demko, Hellebuyck and Markstrom are all better right now and that's most of the starters in the division.

As usual people overreact.  He's been average all year, but the idea that he's been lousy and still has a 12-5-2 record is just absurd.

That doesn't mean he should be gifted the starter's job.  If Campbell comes back and plays lights out, by all means run with him to see how he does in a string of starts.  Until he shows he can carry the load better the Fred ? and so far we just dont know ? then I  think you go with Andersen.

But as I said in another thread, this is his last chance to show he can win a playoff series with this team.

So beyond his record, what is your argument?

 

[BrownRolo]

Now Keefe knows what it's like to lose 3 in a row.

If the Leafs forwards couldn't score 4 or more goals every game, there'll be more coming with Andersen in net.

Last goal was on him.  We all know you only show up to bash Andersen, but please explain how the middle 2 were his fault.  Especially the second goal, which really turned the tide for WPG.

Save percentage .826 says it all.

Yet somehow 12-5-2?

Andersen only won maybe 2 of those because of his play

Nah.  That?s not true.

He's got a .903% on the season. He's actually an issue. Leafs aren't going to get over the top with this guy. Probably held onto him 1 year too long like Babcock. Should have done everything to move him this past summer but couldn't get a deal I guess

I dunno all Canadian teams goalie stats are trash this year.  How many wins should he have in 19 starts if he was playing ?well??

There's only a small group of bad goalies who are bad in the Canadian division playing worse than Andersen. Koskinen, Holtby & Murray. Like come on already. Smith, Allen, Demko, Hellebuyck and Markstrom are all better right now and that's most of the starters in the division.

As usual people overreact.  He's been average all year, but the idea that he's been lousy and still has a 12-5-2 record is just absurd.

That doesn't mean he should be gifted the starter's job.  If Campbell comes back and plays lights out, by all means run with him to see how he does in a string of starts.  Until he shows he can carry the load better the Fred ? and so far we just dont know ? then I  think you go with Andersen.

But as I said in another thread, this is his last chance to show he can win a playoff series with this team.

So behind his record, what is your argument?

(Looks at ALL of Fred's other stats.....)

Ummm,....I'm just gonna stick with he has a really good record, mkay?

 

[bustaheims]

It was a 1 on 1 against a guy named Mason Appleton on a bad angle. Was it an egregious goal that should get him kicked out of the league? No. But at that point of the game a $5mil+ goalie needs to make that save for his team.

It wasn't a bad angle. He was cutting across the front of the net with speed. That's a high percentage play which often leads to the puck ending up in the net, regardless of who has the puck on their stick for it. Would it have been nice if he stopped it? Sure, but it's not like he let a low percentage shot through him. He got beat on a play where he needed his defence to close off the lane across the crease, and he didn't get that.

 

[L K]

It was a 1 on 1 against a guy named Mason Appleton on a bad angle. Was it an egregious goal that should get him kicked out of the league? No. But at that point of the game a $5mil+ goalie needs to make that save for his team.

It wasn't a bad angle. He was cutting across the front of the net with speed. That's a high percentage play which often leads to the puck ending up in the net, regardless of who has the puck on their stick for it. Would it have been nice if he stopped it? Sure, but it's not like he let a low percentage shot through him. He got beat on a play where he needed his defence to close off the lane across the crease, and he didn't get that.

It certainly wasn't an unreasonable goal to give up individual, but in the context of the game, that was just a play where you needed Freddy to make a save.  Hellebyuck stood on his head the second half of the game and Freddy wasn't able to give the Leafs the same performance. 

The Leafs are always going to be a flawed defensive team.  They are miles better than they were in previous years and Freddy's performance seems to be continuing on the trend of being decisively mediocre.

Since Sheldon Keefe took over the Leafs in November last year Freddy has a .906 SV%.  I used 25 games played as a soft marker of starter/backup over that stretch and that puts him 36th in the league in save percentage over that time.  It's just not good enough.

His goals saved above average is sitting at .43 right now that puts him 43rd in the league.  39th if you take out goalies who have played less than 4 complete games.  So right now we are basically getting a goaltender who stops the shots that they should but isn't doing that extra bit to put the team over and that is something that is trending out over more than just a handful of games now.

Are there other things that need to be improved upon with the team, absolutely.  Do we have the internal solution with Campbell, certainly not based on a limited body of work but I really just don't have faith that Andersen can be the goalie to take this team on a deep run.

 

[bustaheims]

It certainly wasn't an unreasonable goal to give up individual, but in the context of the game, that was just a play where you needed Freddy to make a save.  Hellebyuck stood on his head the second half of the game and Freddy wasn't able to give the Leafs the same performance. 

That's a more fair argument, but not the one it feels like most people are making. Would it have been nice if Andersen could have made the save there? Obviously, but it's also not the type of play where we should expect an NHL goalie to make the save every time.

The Leafs are always going to be a flawed defensive team.  They are miles better than they were in previous years and Freddy's performance seems to be continuing on the trend of being decisively mediocre.

Yeah, I'm not sure about that. The eye test says the Leafs have improved defensively, yes, but the underlying numbers? Other than goals against, there's not much improvement there, really. They still give up roughly the same rate of scoring chances and high danger chances, their possession numbers are not great, etc. Some of that is score effect, but, really, what they've done is mostly improved around the edges of their defensive game, not the core of it. They're less prone to the big mistakes and the major breakdowns, but they still struggle a similar amount when the puck in their end.

 

[wnc096]

It was a 1 on 1 against a guy named Mason Appleton on a bad angle. Was it an egregious goal that should get him kicked out of the league? No. But at that point of the game a $5mil+ goalie needs to make that save for his team.

It wasn't a bad angle. He was cutting across the front of the net with speed. That's a high percentage play which often leads to the puck ending up in the net, regardless of who has the puck on their stick for it. Would it have been nice if he stopped it? Sure, but it's not like he let a low percentage shot through him. He got beat on a play where he needed his defence to close off the lane across the crease, and he didn't get that.

Was that goal anymore egregious than Hyman's goal...pretty similar one on one situation.

 

[herman]

The Leafs are always going to be a flawed defensive team.  They are miles better than they were in previous years and Freddy's performance seems to be continuing on the trend of being decisively mediocre.

Yeah, I'm not sure about that. The eye test says the Leafs have improved defensively, yes, but the underlying numbers? Other than goals against, there's not much improvement there, really. They still give up roughly the same rate of scoring chances and high danger chances, their possession numbers are not great, etc. Some of that is score effect, but, really, what they've done is mostly improved around the edges of their defensive game, not the core of it. They're less prone to the big mistakes and the major breakdowns, but they still struggle a similar amount when the puck in their end.

Their volumes/shares for CA/FA/SA/xGA might not look too different; it's down a bit, as is overall pace -- number of shot events in total -- in the league. Where they've made really good strides is hard to find in the boxstat data: odd-man-rushes against, backdoor plays, etc. Having Brodie clean up the 2-on-1s that do come through (hi Rielly) really helps keep that from sitting sour; we certainly wouldn't hear about the 2-on-1s against if Rielly's pinches yielded goals regularly (they haven't).

 

[herman]

I wasn't able to watch the whole game, but I did catch like 3-4* scoring chances that easily could have gone in and changed the narrative of this game. It's a bit tough when the Leafs control the OZ, make like 5 good plays** to get into scoring position but the thing breaks down at play #6 because the puck is on the stick of the 3rd fiddle.

* Nylander to Kerfoot (let's aim for the pad!), Nylander to Hyman (6 on 5), Matthews to Marner (pucks are hard to lift!), Mikheyev getting stickchecked in front of the open net

Of course once the Leafs lose the puck after a flurry of chances, the Jets always seemed to squeak something through on the other end. It's deflating to see your efforts come up empty and even worse to see it go in on your net right away. Feels like a 2019-Hutchinson performance.

** Don't get me started on Marner's shot selection

 

[herman]

If the Leafs are going to insist on running a sub-100% Matthews (who, to be fair, is still better than most of the NHL), then it's time to flip Nylander and Marner.

Thornton/Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Kerfoot - Tavares - Marner

The current top line has no real (outside) shot threat; Marner has clearly tried to adjust to that new reality by taking on that responsibility and he is not really designed for it. Mix in Nylander and you've got someone with existing Matthews chemistry, can transport through the NZ and hand off to Thornton, can dish tap-ins but also rip'em home.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

When do we get a #1 goalie?

Yeah it's Freddie's fault for everything.

Yeah. I?m not sure what people expect from him on that. If he bites on the move and makes the move across, he opens up the short side. If he doesn?t...well, we saw what happened. After Rielly gave it away and couldn?t recover, it was a lose-lose situation for Andersen.

Anyone who puts that loss on the goalie should really turn in their hockey knowledge card. You can continue cheering them on, but please just pick the team with the jerseys you like the mostest.

Can I keep watching hockey oh mighty hockey knowledge man?

Geez buddy. Get off your high horse. People can have opinions. Where do you get off telling them what to think.

Sure people can have their opinions. I have no problem with opinions. I certainly said you can continue watching hockey.

I'm not telling you what to think. My opinion is that people that always point the finger at the goalie are looking for easy excuses for what is a bigger problem.

I'll fully admit that I am bias to goalies. I was a goalie for 30 years. I played at fairly high levels and left the competitive part of the game due to bad knees and a pregnant girlfriend. When I left I went into coaching. I've been coaching goalies for the past 20 years. I've been coaching teams for the past 15 years. I'm not stating that to prove how great I am. Perhaps I'm jaded in my opinion. Since I've started coaching, I've sat through many assistant coaches saying "man, if we only had better goaltending". Well, that is the dream right? If we only had better goalies. Better wingers. Better defensemen. 

I've always felt that Andersen has some real flaws in his game. There's no doubt about it. Even when he was putting up the good numbers, I always felt there were some big holes. In fact, earlier this week, I said that I'd have no problem giving Campbell some chances to see if he can take over. I fully agree with playing whomever is performing better in net. But, the last two losses are not on Andersen. I see a team making really poor decisions with the puck. Both in their own zone, and in the offensive zone.

Saying "Sometimes you just need your goalie to make a save" is a correct statement. What isn't correct is "Sometimes you need your goalie to make all the saves possible regardless what happens before the goal goes in". That's an unrealistic expectation that will always leave fans feeling that the tender is letting them down. I agree that goalies need to steal games once and a while. But, when they don't, that doesn't mean the loss was their fault.

 

[Zee]

I don't get why it's so controversial to suggest Andersen has to be better.  I went to NHL.com and looked at goalies who've played at least 12 games, he ranks 25th in save% on that list.  I'm not saying he has to be top 5, but how about top 15?  Jonathan Bernier sits 15th on that list with a .910, is that too much to ask of Andersen?

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I wasn't able to watch the whole game, but I did catch like 3-4* scoring chances that easily could have gone in and changed the narrative of this game. It's a bit tough when the Leafs control the OZ, make like 5 good plays** to get into scoring position but the thing breaks down at play #6 because the puck is on the stick of the 3rd fiddle.

* Nylander to Kerfoot (let's aim for the pad!), Nylander to Hyman (6 on 5), Matthews to Marner (pucks are hard to lift!), Mikheyev getting stickchecked in front of the open net

Of course once the Leafs lose the puck after a flurry of chances, the Jets always seemed to squeak something through on the other end. It's deflating to see your efforts come up empty and even worse to see it go in on your net right away. Feels like a 2019-Hutchinson performance.

** Don't get me started on Marner's shot selection

When I first turned on the game, Kerfoot was just buzzing. I thought, wow, look at him go. So much energy. Then he put the puck in a real stupid spot trying to force a pass and it completely halted the momentum. I thought, oh well that was just one shift. it then happened again on the next shift. Brain dead. Marner is guilty of the same thing when he's off.

Giving away the puck between the top of the circles and the blueline in the offensive zone is almost as dangerous as doing the same in your own zone. I realize that this team is playing a possession game. I've even defended some of the giveaways. But, please for the love of god, put the puck into smart places when you do decide to move it.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I don't get why it's so controversial to suggest Andersen has to be better.  I went to NHL.com and looked at goalies who've played at least 12 games, he ranks 25th in save% on that list.  I'm not saying he has to be top 5, but how about top 15?  Jonathan Bernier sits 15th on that list with a .910, is that too much to ask of Andersen?

I don't think anyone is saying it's "controversial" to suggest he has to be better. But to suggest he was to blame for the last two games is an exaggeration.

 

[cabber24]

I feel like if we keep playing like that we will win a lot more than we lose. They scored on very few chances and had a hot goalie. Hyman did a bunch of hard solo drives to the net that created chaos every time. I continue to be surprised by how much he brings every night.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't get why it's so controversial to suggest Andersen has to be better.  I went to NHL.com and looked at goalies who've played at least 12 games, he ranks 25th in save% on that list.  I'm not saying he has to be top 5, but how about top 15?  Jonathan Bernier sits 15th on that list with a .910, is that too much to ask of Andersen?

On aggregate, I agree. He's mostly been average. His numbers are somewhat skewed from his first 2 starts - he hasn't been as bad as they look, and those 2 games still have a outlying influence on them. He, in fact, has a .910 sv% since - so, not, that's not too much to ask of Andersen. It's what he's provided over his last 17 starts. My issue is more with the blame he gets for individual goals that, frankly, he shouldn't shoulder the majority (or, in a few cases, any meaningful amount) of the blame for.

 

[L K]

Yeah, lost in all of the complaining that is a game the Leafs win most nights.  Unfortunately the last three games they have faced some really standout goaltending. 

Hellebuyck is always able to do things like he did last night.
Thatcher Demko is in the middle of a 5 game stretch where he has put up:
1.20 GAA .963 SV%

Its hard to win when the goalie on the other end stands on their head.  The Leafs weren't at their best in the Vancouver games although I would say that again, even in the first Vancouver game their legs fell off part way through the game and Demko stood tall before that bizarre positioning goal from Hutchinson really killed them and Vancouver took momentum moving forward off that.

They had a lot of great scoring chances, many of them from in close in the dirty areas so it wasn't like they were just being cute with the puck all game and struggled because of it.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I don't get why it's so controversial to suggest Andersen has to be better.  I went to NHL.com and looked at goalies who've played at least 12 games, he ranks 25th in save% on that list.  I'm not saying he has to be top 5, but how about top 15?  Jonathan Bernier sits 15th on that list with a .910, is that too much to ask of Andersen?

On aggregate, I agree. He's mostly been average. His numbers are somewhat skewed from his first 2 starts - he hasn't been as bad as they look, and those 2 games still have a outlying influence on them. He, in fact, has a .910 sv% since - so, not, that's not too much to ask of Andersen. It's what he's provided over his last 17 starts. My issue is more with the blame he gets for individual goals that, frankly, he shouldn't shoulder the majority (or, in a few cases, any meaningful amount) of the blame for.

Well said.

 

[L K]

I wasn't able to watch the whole game, but I did catch like 3-4* scoring chances that easily could have gone in and changed the narrative of this game. It's a bit tough when the Leafs control the OZ, make like 5 good plays** to get into scoring position but the thing breaks down at play #6 because the puck is on the stick of the 3rd fiddle.

* Nylander to Kerfoot (let's aim for the pad!), Nylander to Hyman (6 on 5), Matthews to Marner (pucks are hard to lift!), Mikheyev getting stickchecked in front of the open net

Of course once the Leafs lose the puck after a flurry of chances, the Jets always seemed to squeak something through on the other end. It's deflating to see your efforts come up empty and even worse to see it go in on your net right away. Feels like a 2019-Hutchinson performance.

** Don't get me started on Marner's shot selection

When I first turned on the game, Kerfoot was just buzzing. I thought, wow, look at him go. So much energy. Then he put the puck in a real stupid spot trying to force a pass and it completely halted the momentum. I thought, oh well that was just one shift. it then happened again on the next shift. Brain dead. Marner is guilty of the same thing when he's off.

Giving away the puck between the top of the circles and the blueline in the offensive zone is almost as dangerous as doing the same in your own zone. I realize that this team is playing a possession game. I've even defended some of the giveaways. But, please for the love of god, put the puck into smart places when you do decide to move it.

That seems to be Kerfoot's limitation, and its probably a really reasonable reminder that he really is a 3rd line player.  He does so many good things but then just isn't able to finish plays.  Playing a decent chunk of the season with Nylander and Tavares hes on pace for around 35 points over 82 games this year.

 

[herman]

When I first turned on the game, Kerfoot was just buzzing. I thought, wow, look at him go. So much energy. Then he put the puck in a real stupid spot trying to force a pass and it completely halted the momentum. I thought, oh well that was just one shift. it then happened again on the next shift. Brain dead. Marner is guilty of the same thing when he's off.

Giving away the puck between the top of the circles and the blueline in the offensive zone is almost as dangerous as doing the same in your own zone. I realize that this team is playing a possession game. I've even defended some of the giveaways. But, please for the love of god, put the puck into smart places when you do decide to move it.

That seems to be Kerfoot's limitation, and its probably a really reasonable reminder that he really is a 3rd line player.  He does so many good things but then just isn't able to finish plays.  Playing a decent chunk of the season with Nylander and Tavares hes on pace for around 35 points over 82 games this year.

Different players are good at different phases of the offense chain; some are better as solo-operators: high skill and physical gifts, but like no brain for team play (hi Kapanen).

Phase 0: Forecheck, 1: Gain zone, 2: Chain attack, 3: Finish

Tavares: he's been quite limited this season on the first phase of offence: breaking through the first layer. Throughout his stellar career, Tavares has loved to breakdown defenders 1-on-1-3. He has frankly sucked at it these past two seasons (hence the giveaway numbers) probably due to a diminishing footspeed. He is still awesome in the middle and finish phases as he can cycle like few others on this team, and has a lot of pretty and ugly scoring tools at his disposal.

Kerfoot: great at phase 1: such a good transition skater and uses it well to set up shop. His game breaks down if there are too many passes and he doesn't really have finishing instincts.  He's a rush player/facilitator and works well with Mikheyev and Nylander when playing fast breaks, but gets bogged down when there are too many decisions to make.

Nylander: say what you will about how he looks on the defensive side of the puck (haha it's how he looks doing everything), the guy gets offence. Everything you need a hockey player to do to score, he can do: transition, grinding cycles, rush give-and-goes, long slapper/wristers, net-front tips and dangles, cross-ice slot feeds for easy goals. He is only second to Matthews on this team in offensive completeness (Willy gives ground on Auston's additional size, next-level release, and hands/handling).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

On aggregate, I agree. He's mostly been average. His numbers are somewhat skewed from his first 2 starts - he hasn't been as bad as they look, and those 2 games still have a outlying influence on them. He, in fact, has a .910 sv% since - so, not, that's not too much to ask of Andersen. It's what he's provided over his last 17 starts. My issue is more with the blame he gets for individual goals that, frankly, he shouldn't shoulder the majority (or, in a few cases, any meaningful amount) of the blame for.

I mean everyone can play the select sample size game. If you take out Andersen's first 5 games his Sv% is .905. If you look at just his last 6 games he's at .890.

But even if we just stick to that .910 number, that's still just 23rd among goalies in that time frame. A $5mil starting goalie with those numbers, combined with his awful numbers in the 2nd half of last season, simply shouldn't be immune to criticism.