Komarov: Sell or Keep?

[bustaheims]

This. Chicago remained viable for as long as they did by ruthlessly moving their outer core players to replenish their ranks with better value propositions. It helps that other GMs are suckers for 'playoff heroes' or heart and soul types from championship dressing rooms and will overpay.

Yup. And, if the Leafs can get similar value for Komarov as the Hawks did for Shaw, for instance, while being able to insert someone like Soshnikov who can provide similar - if not better - on-ice value, they're golden.

 

[Andy007]

In a cap world, you cannot fall in love with middle six players making more than they are worth, that's a one-way road towards mediocrity. See Montreal, Boston and the Leafs before they properly stripped the junk and committed to a rebuild.

This. Chicago remained viable for as long as they did by ruthlessly moving their outer core players to replenish their ranks with better value propositions. It helps that other GMs are suckers for 'playoff heroes' or heart and soul types from championship dressing rooms and will overpay.

True and then they got Bryan Bickell'd and lost a great young player in Teravainen (sp?). Let's hope the Leafs can avoid that fate.

 

[bustaheims]

True and then they got Bryan Bickell'd and lost a great young player in Teravainen (sp?). Let's hope the Leafs can avoid that fate.

Yup. Bickell is a great example of what not to do with guys like Komarov.

 

[Frank E]

My understanding was that we were talking about the difference between trading Komarov, or keeping him for the playoffs this year and letting him walk/trading his negotiation rights, as opposed to re-signing him.

 

[Kin]

Pretty much any player is "replaceable".

I think fundamentally this is the point here. Most guys are replaceable so when you can flip them for assets you probably should. Especially in a situation where you are dealing with a lot of depth at a particular position and the guy you have no is arguably already overpaid for what he brings to the table.

Like other people are saying, thriving in a cap world requires a little bit of ruthlessness. This is going to be a hard adjustment for a fanbase that, in the past, has fallen in love with their 3rd and 4th line grinders.

 

[herman]

By that token, the Leafs really have to start making room to play their cusp players so we can really see what they've got (and start building their credit score on the market). A churn of skilled, cheap depth players hitting the team at their peak output years (21-25) is what'll ensure we get the best value out of our more expensive high-end talent.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I don't believe, for one second, that Komarov would net the return that Shaw got:

1.  Shaw was an RFA.  Komarov will be a UFA at the end of the deal.  So you are trading for 20 games plus playoffs for Komarov vs. years from Shaw 

2.  Shaw was 24 at the time of the trade.  Komarov will be 30. 

The only thing swinging things back towards a better return is non-1st round draft picks seem to fly out the door near the deadline.  That said, he's not going to get you a 39th and 45th overall pick.  At best, he gets you a late 2nd round pick (because the team getting him is a playoff team) and maybe a 4th round pick.  Anything beyond that, and I'm game for him getting traded.  Anything less than that, and I'd rather have him on our roster for the playoffs.

Note, I say the above with two other things in mind that have been stated here that I don't agree with:

1.  We are in LTIR.  We don't save a lick of "cap space" by trading Komarov this year.  Now, if moving Komarov opens up the door to pick up a player with a much bigger salary at the deadline (ie, we need the room under LTIR)- then it makes sense from a cap space perspective.  If we weren't in LTIR, then trading him now would be ideal- we could make room under the cap for our inevitable bonuses that are going to have to be tacked on to next years cap at this point. 

2.  While Soshnikov or Andreas Johnsson may provide a bit more offense, I don't think they outweigh Komarov's defensive ability surplus over them.  Furthermore, while I agree outscoring the opposition is the goal- we have plenty of players who can put the puck in the net, but not quite as many who do a good job preventing it from happening.  If we were flush with good defensive forwards and needed more offense, I'd be game to trade Komarov to make room for a player with more offense in his arsenal.  This is just my opinion and you are welcome to disagree.

 

[rdowdall]

I don't believe, for one second, that Komarov would net the return that Shaw got:

1.  Shaw was an RFA.  Komarov will be a UFA at the end of the deal.  So you are trading for 20 games plus playoffs for Komarov vs. years from Shaw 

2.  Shaw was 24 at the time of the trade.  Komarov will be 30. 

The only thing swinging things back towards a better return is non-1st round draft picks seem to fly out the door near the deadline.  That said, he's not going to get you a 39th and 45th overall pick.  At best, he gets you a late 2nd round pick (because the team getting him is a playoff team) and maybe a 4th round pick.  Anything beyond that, and I'm game for him getting traded.  Anything less than that, and I'd rather have him on our roster for the playoffs.

Note, I say the above with two other things in mind that have been stated here that I don't agree with:

1.  We are in LTIR.  We don't save a lick of "cap space" by trading Komarov this year.  Now, if moving Komarov opens up the door to pick up a player with a much bigger salary at the deadline (ie, we need the room under LTIR)- then it makes sense from a cap space perspective.  If we weren't in LTIR, then trading him now would be ideal- we could make room under the cap for our inevitable bonuses that are going to have to be tacked on to next years cap at this point. 

2.  While Soshnikov or Andreas Johnsson may provide a bit more offense, I don't think they outweigh Komarov's defensive ability surplus over them.  Furthermore, while I agree outscoring the opposition is the goal- we have plenty of players who can put the puck in the net, but not quite as many who do a good job preventing it from happening.  If we were flush with good defensive forwards and needed more offense, I'd be game to trade Komarov to make room for a player with more offense in his arsenal.  This is just my opinion and you are welcome to disagree.

Is Komarov the difference between winning a cup, and not winning a cup?  If he is, then yeah, I guess you keep him.  If not, you have to look at his upcoming UFA status and recoup what you can for him because you are unlikely to sign him for less than 3 million. As such, the team would be better off going with his replacement sooner rather than later, and getting picks in return for him, rather than letting him walk in the summer.  Seems like better asset management. 

 

[Coco-puffs]

I don't believe, for one second, that Komarov would net the return that Shaw got:

1.  Shaw was an RFA.  Komarov will be a UFA at the end of the deal.  So you are trading for 20 games plus playoffs for Komarov vs. years from Shaw 

2.  Shaw was 24 at the time of the trade.  Komarov will be 30. 

The only thing swinging things back towards a better return is non-1st round draft picks seem to fly out the door near the deadline.  That said, he's not going to get you a 39th and 45th overall pick.  At best, he gets you a late 2nd round pick (because the team getting him is a playoff team) and maybe a 4th round pick.  Anything beyond that, and I'm game for him getting traded.  Anything less than that, and I'd rather have him on our roster for the playoffs.

Note, I say the above with two other things in mind that have been stated here that I don't agree with:

1.  We are in LTIR.  We don't save a lick of "cap space" by trading Komarov this year.  Now, if moving Komarov opens up the door to pick up a player with a much bigger salary at the deadline (ie, we need the room under LTIR)- then it makes sense from a cap space perspective.  If we weren't in LTIR, then trading him now would be ideal- we could make room under the cap for our inevitable bonuses that are going to have to be tacked on to next years cap at this point. 

2.  While Soshnikov or Andreas Johnsson may provide a bit more offense, I don't think they outweigh Komarov's defensive ability surplus over them.  Furthermore, while I agree outscoring the opposition is the goal- we have plenty of players who can put the puck in the net, but not quite as many who do a good job preventing it from happening.  If we were flush with good defensive forwards and needed more offense, I'd be game to trade Komarov to make room for a player with more offense in his arsenal.  This is just my opinion and you are welcome to disagree.

Is Komarov the difference between winning a cup, and not winning a cup?  If he is, then yeah, I guess you keep him.  If not, you have to look at his upcoming UFA status and recoup what you can for him because you are unlikely to sign him for less than 3 million. As such, the team would be better off going with his replacement sooner rather than later, and getting picks in return for him, rather than letting him walk in the summer.  Seems like better asset management.

I agree with your premise.  If taking Komarov off the roster and replacing him with one of Kapenen/Sosh/Johnsson/Leivo does not hurt your chances, then yes, from an asset management perspective might as well recoup something before losing him for nothing.  However, if there IS a drop off from him to any of those guys (which is what I believe), then the assets you'd have to get back would have to be well worth the risk of running with a worse lineup.  I don't see us getting enough assets to outweigh that risk.

Sadly, this may very well be our best shot at winning a cup.  I have too much hope for this team in the future to believe that, but there is the pessimistic Leaf fan in me that looks at the fact we are going to face a cap crunch soon.  Hence, JvR, Bozak, and Komarov will probably not be back next year.  Gardiner has only 2 years left on his current contract- who knows if we'll be able to fit him in beyond that.  I hope we have the players in the system to replace those guys, but we aren't sure yet.  I'm not game to reduce my chances of winning now for a late 2nd round pick.

 

[Kin]

The only thing swinging things back towards a better return is non-1st round draft picks seem to fly out the door near the deadline.

Well, that and the whole selling point of Komarov is that he's a really good defensive player who helps out on the penalty kill(neither of which is true of Shaw) along with him being a valuable intangibles sort.

Otherwise it seems like this seems pretty contradictory. On the one hand Komarov will be a significant factor in determining where the Leafs get in the playoffs, on the other he's worth pretty meagre picks. I don't think both can be definitively true. Conversely, I'm not making any statements about his worth but I think his relatively minimal impact on where they finish is probably outweighed by what he could fetch.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Do you think St. Louis thought keeping Shattenkirk would give them the best shot at winning that season?

You can't just burn assets, you have to keep recycling or you'll reach the point of having an empty/mediocre pipeline.

All things considered, Soshnikov is probably already better than Komarov and that's not to mention the other guys in the system that can play that role too.

 

[bustaheims]

You can't just burn assets, you have to keep recycling or you'll reach the point of having an empty/mediocre pipeline.

Especially when you're talking about a tertiary asset like Komarov. If you have pieces in place that can replace 80% or more of what they bring and can get another team to overpay for them (which, for guys like Komarov, seems like a fairly common occurence), you make the trade and take the potential minor hit to roster.

When you have guys in the system who seems likely to be able to provide more . . . well, that's a no-brainer. You take the assets another team is willing to part with, and laugh all the way to the bank.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Hypothetically speaking, let's say that we trade Komarov at the deadline this year. That leaves us with:

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Kadri-Brown
JVR-Bozak-Marner
Martin-Moore-Soshnikov

I mean, that's still a pretty deep forward group. I've said this about JVR in the past but as long as we have somebody like Connor Brown lining up on the 4th line you can trade a winger and really not notice a huge drop-off (or quite frankly any drop-off) in your top-9. At least at even-strength.

That also still leaves you with Hyman/Brown/Moore/Soshnikov to kill penalties plus Marleau/Marner/Kadri also capable of doing so.

I think it'd be a pretty big mistake to not trade at least one of Komarov/JVR/Bozak at the deadline.

 

[Highlander]

In a cap world, you cannot fall in love with middle six players making more than they are worth, that's a one-way road towards mediocrity. See Montreal, Boston and the Leafs before they properly stripped the junk and committed to a rebuild.

This. Chicago remained viable for as long as they did by ruthlessly moving their outer core players to replenish their ranks with better value propositions. It helps that other GMs are suckers for 'playoff heroes' or heart and soul types from championship dressing rooms and will overpay.

True and then they got Bryan Bickell'd and lost a great young player in Teravainen (sp?). Let's hope the Leafs can avoid that fate.

 

[Highlander]

In a cap world, you cannot fall in love with middle six players making more than they are worth, that's a one-way road towards mediocrity. See Montreal, Boston and the Leafs before they properly stripped the junk and committed to a rebuild.

This. Chicago remained viable for as long as they did by ruthlessly moving their outer core players to replenish their ranks with better value propositions. It helps that other GMs are suckers for 'playoff heroes' or heart and soul types from championship dressing rooms and will overpay.

True and then they got Bryan Bickell'd and lost a great young player in Teravainen (sp?). Let's hope the Leafs can avoid that fate.

It strikes me that hockey players are like stocks. Don't fall in love with either and understand that I love Komarov, he reminds me so much of Kenny the Rat, but like stocks I fell in love with... they can kill you if you hold on to long, I think its time to trade Komarov while he still has grit and perhaps part of a package for some more picks.  I would like to see Soshnikov, Kapanen and Leivo as part of a full time core.  And I don't buy stocks any more.

 

[Frank E]

Obviously from a future pipeline perspective, you turn the asset.

But as it stands today, the Leafs' record is 3rd in the league.  If they're in and around 3rd in the league at the trade deadline, do you really mess with your shot at a Cup this year?  I don't think I do.

If I was flirting with being the 10th-12th best team in the league, I think I turn JVR, Bozak, and Komarov...but I don't think I do that if I'm in a position where I'm amongst the very best teams in the league. 

You still have to pick your spots to take a run.

 

[ZBBM]

Obviously from a future pipeline perspective, you turn the asset.

But as it stands today, the Leafs' record is 3rd in the league.  If they're in and around 3rd in the league at the trade deadline, do you really mess with your shot at a Cup this year?  I don't think I do.

If I was flirting with being the 10th-12th best team in the league, I think I turn JVR, Bozak, and Komarov...but I don't think I do that if I'm in a position where I'm amongst the very best teams in the league. 

You still have to pick your spots to take a run.

I just don't think the defense corps is good enough for them to really make a run this year, so even if they sit high in the league approaching the deadline, I move Komarov.  And I like him FWIW.  But Soshnikov can replace him, with potentially more offense to boot.  To me it's a no-brainer.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Obviously from a future pipeline perspective, you turn the asset.

But as it stands today, the Leafs' record is 3rd in the league.  If they're in and around 3rd in the league at the trade deadline, do you really mess with your shot at a Cup this year?  I don't think I do.

If I was flirting with being the 10th-12th best team in the league, I think I turn JVR, Bozak, and Komarov...but I don't think I do that if I'm in a position where I'm amongst the very best teams in the league. 

You still have to pick your spots to take a run.

Yes, I'd trade all three, being passive is for losers.

Hyman - God - Marner
Marleau - Kadri - Soshnikov
Kapanen - Nylander - Brown
Martin - Gauthier - Leivo
Moore

Let the kids play and drive up their value while we wait for Liljegren and other extra help on defense.

The three UFA's will fetch a significant return, one or more of which could help sooner rather than later.

If we are going to shelter the third line, I'd rather they shelter young offensive monsters and allow Nylander to take the reigns of his own line.

 

[Kin]

Obviously from a future pipeline perspective, you turn the asset.

But as it stands today, the Leafs' record is 3rd in the league.  If they're in and around 3rd in the league at the trade deadline, do you really mess with your shot at a Cup this year?  I don't think I do.

If I was flirting with being the 10th-12th best team in the league, I think I turn JVR, Bozak, and Komarov...but I don't think I do that if I'm in a position where I'm amongst the very best teams in the league. 

You still have to pick your spots to take a run.

I don't necessarily disagree with that in theory but I think we have to be realistic about how good the team really is and acknowledge that records can be a little misleading. Right now the Leafs are only 3rd if you ignore measuring them in terms of points per game. They're actually 8th when games played are taken into account, behind teams like Jersey and Vegas. There's been a lot of good from this team this year but it's been pretty rare that I've watched them play a full 60 minutes and thought "this team might really have it this year".

And I really do not for the life of me get the urgency some of you are seeing. There's another season before the big extensions will kick in and even then the team is pretty free of bad contracts. They can't be careless with extension but the idea that their chances are fleeting seems pretty out there to me. They're at the start of their window, not the end.

 

[bustaheims]

They're at the start of their window, not the end.

That's just it - their window is maybe opening this season. Maybe. Like you, I'm not really convinced they're there yet. They still have a fair amount to learn before I'll believe they're actually Cup contenders.