Leafs 2017 Entry Draft
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Kin
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Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
I don't put a ton of stock in the wisdom of combine interviews regardless but I would point out that there may be a slight difference between how he responded in a combine interview, which may well have the atmosphere of a job interview, and getting lobbed softballs by Henny which has the atmosphere of a job interview for a company your dad owns.
mr grieves
New member
herman said:
At some point, there'll be a proper Liljegren thread somewhere, but, in the meantime, here are the final Liljegren rankings from various sources (most gathered at MyNHLDraft), as well which defensemen were ranked ahead of him:
Marek = 7th (behind Heiskanen)
ISS = 8th (behind Heiskanen)
Dobber Prospects = 9th (behind Heiskanen, Makar)
The Draft Analyst = 10th (behind Makar)
Craig Button = 10th (behind Makar, Heiskanen)
NACS = 10th (behind Heiskanen)
Hockey Prospect = 10th (behind Heiskanen, Makar)
Pronman = 13th (behind Heiskanen, Brannstrom)
Ryan Kenndy/ THN = 14th (behind Heiskanen, Makar)
McKenzie = 16th (behind Heiskanen, Makar, Valimaki)
McKeen?s = 20th (behind Heiskanen, Makar, Vaakanainen, Valimaki, Brannstrom)
Future Considerations = 22nd (behind Heiskanen, Maker, Valimaki, Brannstrom, Haugue)
Just went through TLN's profiles on the guys we picked. Meh. But we got Liljegren so whatever.
KadriFan said:
Why? They made two slam-dunk easy picks with Matthews and Marner (heck, even Liljegren seems like a no-brainer) but aside from that haven't actually produced a NHL player. Yes, obviously it's incredibly early to judge them on that so far but that's another reason it's pretty bizarre to start calling them the best in the league at something.
disco
New member
For sure, Willie was available at 8th because of perceived flakiness. After one year he's come a long way. Draft skill. Defensive responsibility and work ethic you can teach / drive home with solid coaching, which we have.
https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/878667519959203840
https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/878667519959203840
Great draft this year by the Leafs. They didn't have the extremely high picks that they have had for the last couple of seasons, however I think they did amazingly considering the picks they had. In at least a couple of cases they got guys that were projected to draft much higher than they wound up going. I like how they loaded up on defense. It will be interesting to see if they make any trades or roster moves over the summer. They say Vegas has a lot of defense that they need to unload.
Heroic Shrimp
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So I'm going to need the Leafs rookie camp up and running by tomorrow, or Monday at the latest.
Highlander
Active member
What is the measuring stick of a good draft? Is it two that will play in the NHL, one very good the other a third or fourth liner or pairing? Or do you hope that 3 make it to the bigs? Sometimes they do find gems in the rough in the later rounds.
hockeyfan1
New member
As Highlander pointed out, there definitely are hidden gems found in later rounds. The article below (from 2016) showcases this perfectly.
Note:. Article is from 2016 -- before the Leafs drafted Matthews, plus the successes of the 2017 playoffs.
...teams going deep in the playoffs are consistently stocked with hidden gems taken in the second round or lower on draft day.
In a salary-cap era with limited free agency and minimal player movement, the importance of the draft-and-develop model can?t be overstate ed.
Postmedia examined every draft since the 2004-05 lockout, starting with the one in which Sidney Crosby was taken first overall by the Pittsburgh Penguins (2005).
The results show perennial contenders such as the Los Angeles Kings, St. Louis Blues, San Jose Sharks and Detroit Red Wings are among the best at getting the most out of their draft picks ? despite not often having the best draft position ? while the Edmonton Oilers, with an abundance of top-10 picks (including picking No. 1 overall four times), have had middling results.
Three of the Pittsburgh Penguins? most important contributors ? defenceman Kris Letang, forward Bryan Rust and goaltender Matt Murray ? were third-rounders.
The Kings, Blues and Ottawa Senators earned top grades in Postmedia?s ranking of draft performance since 2005. Their low average draft position was weighted against productivity from their draft picks and the results are impressive:
? The Kings had the 19th-best draft position and only three top-10 draft picks in 11 years, but ranked second in games played by their draft picks and in points generated.
? The Blues were 23rd in draft position but were third in games played and fourth in points generated.
? The Senators were 22nd in draft position and ranked fifth in games played, 11th in points generated.
Take the Columbus Blue Jackets, for example. The Jackets have done well at the draft table, selecting players who have combined to play more games than those in any other organization since 2005.
Despite that record, the Jackets have missed the playoffs in nine of 11 years since the 2004-05 lockout.
...same goes for the Colorado Avalanche, who have missed the playoffs in seven of 11 years, but have drafted the most offensively prolific group of players over that time period.
Colorado ranks first with 2,628 points generated by draft...despite the fact they are just 10th in terms of games played by draft.
http://nationalpost.com/sports/hockey/nhl/its-not-about-first-round-picks-successful-teams-find-gems-in-later-rounds-of-nhl-draft/wcm/8b1bc155-0e9f-4e92-b8c6-288807de216f
Note:. Article is from 2016 -- before the Leafs drafted Matthews, plus the successes of the 2017 playoffs.
...teams going deep in the playoffs are consistently stocked with hidden gems taken in the second round or lower on draft day.
In a salary-cap era with limited free agency and minimal player movement, the importance of the draft-and-develop model can?t be overstate ed.
Postmedia examined every draft since the 2004-05 lockout, starting with the one in which Sidney Crosby was taken first overall by the Pittsburgh Penguins (2005).
The results show perennial contenders such as the Los Angeles Kings, St. Louis Blues, San Jose Sharks and Detroit Red Wings are among the best at getting the most out of their draft picks ? despite not often having the best draft position ? while the Edmonton Oilers, with an abundance of top-10 picks (including picking No. 1 overall four times), have had middling results.
Three of the Pittsburgh Penguins? most important contributors ? defenceman Kris Letang, forward Bryan Rust and goaltender Matt Murray ? were third-rounders.
The Kings, Blues and Ottawa Senators earned top grades in Postmedia?s ranking of draft performance since 2005. Their low average draft position was weighted against productivity from their draft picks and the results are impressive:
? The Kings had the 19th-best draft position and only three top-10 draft picks in 11 years, but ranked second in games played by their draft picks and in points generated.
? The Blues were 23rd in draft position but were third in games played and fourth in points generated.
? The Senators were 22nd in draft position and ranked fifth in games played, 11th in points generated.
Take the Columbus Blue Jackets, for example. The Jackets have done well at the draft table, selecting players who have combined to play more games than those in any other organization since 2005.
Despite that record, the Jackets have missed the playoffs in nine of 11 years since the 2004-05 lockout.
...same goes for the Colorado Avalanche, who have missed the playoffs in seven of 11 years, but have drafted the most offensively prolific group of players over that time period.
Colorado ranks first with 2,628 points generated by draft...despite the fact they are just 10th in terms of games played by draft.
http://nationalpost.com/sports/hockey/nhl/its-not-about-first-round-picks-successful-teams-find-gems-in-later-rounds-of-nhl-draft/wcm/8b1bc155-0e9f-4e92-b8c6-288807de216f
mr grieves
New member
CarltonTheBear said:
Yeah, way too soon to say whether Hunter's any good at drafting NHL players, especially outside of the top 10 or so, where good teams find quality players. We're about 2 years out from seeing whether Hunter's large Russian sons can contribute much. Having good NHLers on cheap contracts will, of course, mean a lot for the team's longterm success, as they'll want to replace the likes of Brown in a few years...
As for their first round picks, they have done well. And interesting article on TLN points out something we should maybe more fully appreciate:
To emphasize the point, they did a redraft of the core, seeing how things might've turned out if players hadn't "fallen" to the Leafs. They look back only to 2014, and entertain the crazy idea that they mightn't've picked Matthews.
Another way things could've gone:
2009 -- LA Kings opt for Kadri over Schenn, PHX still takes OEL, and the Leafs are left with the other Schenn brother (Burke really wanted this to happen, IIRC)
2012 -- NYI takes Morgan Rielly at 4, and Leafs select Griffin Reinhart.
2014 -- Vancouver ignores the silly stuff and takes Nylander at #6, and we're left with Jake Virtanen or Hayden Fleury.
2015 -- ARI goes for skill and grabs Marner. Leafs take Strome or, maybe doubting him, listen to Babcock and go with the defenseman, Hanifin.
2016 -- despite the media speculation, Leafs stick with the consensus #1 and take Matthews.
2017 -- Liljegren doesn't fall quite as far and is taken by Calgary, so Leafs take Valimaki.
Instead of a core of:
Matthews,
Nylander,
Marner,
Kadri,
Rielly,
Gardiner,
with a high-ceilinged Liljegren in the pipeline...
they could be trying to build around:
Matthews,
Virtanen,
Schenn,
Reinhart,
Hanifin,
Gardiner,
with Valimaki on the horizon.
Even if Hunter turns out to be as good as whoever identified Letang, Rust, and Murray in the 3rd round for PIT, back luck at the top of the draft could've left us with a pretty middling core.
So, I'm quite happy with how the Leafs drafts have gone, but not because I think Hunter has any special insight into prospects (no evidence of that yet). Instead, we've had a bit of luck and the team's been smart about ignoring some of the common sense wisdom that causes teams to pass over high-end talent, so we seem to have the pieces we need.
Nik the Trik said:
I mean...the bar was set pretty darn low over the last decade+ that this seems like a pretty logical starting point for fans. The honeymoon will end at some point, but I can't imagine that you're surprised that fans are basing their observations off of past experience and not just data, per se. It isn't your jam, but it makes sense why folks are excited that the team isn't pulling worst case scenarios for each and every move they make (circa Burke, Fletcher 2.0, and JFJ years).