Leafs acquire Matt Murray [25% retained]

[L K]

I think the development coach thing is great and I know we switched goaltending coaches this offseason but I'm a little concerned that we dealt with injury problems with Andersen and injury problems with Campbell and Mrazek.  That's not a great track record for suddenly getting a fully healthy season out of him. 

I think the impact of having to bail out the goaltenders can't be ignored either.  It makes the team have to work harder to stay in games.  It means they have to break out of their defensive schemes more to play catchup for bad performance.  We really can't keep having that happen.  We don't have the best defensive team in the league.  It's going to be slightly worse next year without Mikheyev and possibly even Kerfoot.  We can still probably expect developmental improvement from Matthews/Marner/Nylander in terms of fine details  and style of play but the team is definitely not as good on paper next year.

Right now we have:
12 F: Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Bunting, Tavares, Kerfoot, Kampf, Simmonds, Robertson, Clifford, Abruzzese, Anderson
6D: Rielly, Brodie, Muzzin, Giordano, Liljegren, H?ll
2G: Murray, Kallgren

RFA: Sandin, Engvall

We have 4M in cap space with that roster.  Sandin/Engvall are probably going to end up in the 3-3.5M range combined so our transactions are going to have to be all league minimum style salaries to bump a guy like Simmonds/Clifford to the AHL.

We could certainly trade Holl and Kerfoot to free up a bit more salary but a Kerfoot for Strome swap seems kind of eh? Maybe more valuable to have a guy who is a more natural centre but really takes a lot of speed out of the lineup.  Holl is fine to move but we still need to replace him with another 7th defensemen so that only frees up a million in cap space.

Things are definitely really tight.  I still just don't have a lot of confidence in this move.  The loss to Tampa felt different than previous years but we keep chipping away at the roster of a team that can't get out of the first round.  That's a problem.

 

[Omallley]

Late to the party, but I do not like this deal: that's a lot of cheddar on a maybe.

(I know, hot take).

I get it. But tell me which goalie isn?t a maybe? I think that?s the biggest issue. Unless somehow you get Hellebuyck or Vasilevskiy, which is impossible, who isnt a maybe?

Every single UFA option has the same risks and question marks.

It's a rough UFA class of goalies, that's for sure - but you can't tell me this is the best possible option that Dubas had for the last year. Going back to the trade deadline (hoping to sneak a goalie through the trade wire for example), this has been a sore spot for me. Hoping for a formerly good goalie to regain form is optimism that feels pretty...optmistic? And honestly...I'll be the first to say I'm wrong and cheer him along if he's able to string together a very good year, but I'm not liking the fact that the team is seemingly hanging their goaltending hopes on a return to form from Murray.

 

[bustaheims]

It's a rough UFA class of goalies, that's for sure - but you can't tell me this is the best possible option that Dubas had for the last year. Going back to the trade deadline (hoping to sneak a goalie through the trade wire for example), this has been a sore spot for me. Hoping for a formerly good goalie to regain form is optimism that feels pretty...optmistic? And honestly...I'll be the first to say I'm wrong and cheer him along if he's able to string together a very good year, but I'm not liking the fact that the team is seemingly hanging their goaltending hopes on a return to form from Murray.

The only goalies of note who changed teams in the last year or so are Fleury at the trade deadline, Ullmark as a UFA last summer, and Kuemper being traded to Colorado. Giving up what Chicago was rumoured to be asking for Fleury would have been a worse move than this one. Ullmark played in 40 games for the first time in 21/22, Kuemper did it for only the 2nd time. Goaltending upgrades, while definitely necessary for this group, haven't been super available for the last year or so - at least, not at a price teams were willing to pay. I'd say it's been a source of frustration for all of us, but Dubas can only work with what's available and has to balance the acquisition costs vs to value of the upgrade.

Really, the mistake here goes back to sticking with Andersen for the last year of his deal, but that also only opens up a couple other options.

 

[herman]

Should Topher Grace play Murray in the Kyle Dubas biopic?

100% it has to be Thomas Middleditch.

omg that's much better.

 

[Frank E]

It's a rough UFA class of goalies, that's for sure - but you can't tell me this is the best possible option that Dubas had for the last year. Going back to the trade deadline (hoping to sneak a goalie through the trade wire for example), this has been a sore spot for me. Hoping for a formerly good goalie to regain form is optimism that feels pretty...optmistic? And honestly...I'll be the first to say I'm wrong and cheer him along if he's able to string together a very good year, but I'm not liking the fact that the team is seemingly hanging their goaltending hopes on a return to form from Murray.

The only goalies of note who changed teams in the last year or so are Fleury at the trade deadline, Ullmark as a UFA last summer, and Kuemper being traded to Colorado. Giving up what Chicago was rumoured to be asking for Fleury would have been a worse move than this one. Ullmark played in 40 games for the first time in 21/22, Kuemper did it for only the 2nd time. Goaltending upgrades, while definitely necessary for this group, haven't been super available for the last year or so - at least, not at a price teams were willing to pay. I'd say it's been a source of frustration for all of us, but Dubas can only work with what's available and has to balance the acquisition costs vs to value of the upgrade.

Really, the mistake here goes back to sticking with Andersen for the last year of his deal, but that also only opens up a couple other options.

And I still go back to what Omallley was saying in that why are we here getting scraps again and having Cup hopes hanging on bounceback hopes?

As far as I'm concerned, this should have been managed better over the past 3 years...not just the past 2 weeks.

Goaltending is a big deal with this team that's so fragile because they have had zero success.  This should have been a priority.

I'll join the rest of you and say I'm hoping for the best here, but this is a gamble, and the Leafs shouldn't be gambling with goaltending at this point in the window.

 

[groundskeeper willie]

And I still go back to what Omallley was saying in that why are we here getting scraps again and having Cup hopes hanging on bounceback hopes?

As far as I'm concerned, this should have been managed better over the past 3 years...not just the past 2 weeks.

Goaltending is a big deal with this team that's so fragile because they have had zero success.  This should have been a priority.

I'll join the rest of you and say I'm hoping for the best here, but this is a gamble, and the Leafs shouldn't be gambling with goaltending at this point in the window.

What goalie in the past three years would you have liked them to pick up instead?

 

[Frank E]

And I still go back to what Omallley was saying in that why are we here getting scraps again and having Cup hopes hanging on bounceback hopes?

As far as I'm concerned, this should have been managed better over the past 3 years...not just the past 2 weeks.

Goaltending is a big deal with this team that's so fragile because they have had zero success.  This should have been a priority.

I'll join the rest of you and say I'm hoping for the best here, but this is a gamble, and the Leafs shouldn't be gambling with goaltending at this point in the window.

What goalie in the past three years would you have liked them to pick up instead?

Shesterkin. 

That one good enough?

 

[bustaheims]

What goalie in the past three years would you have liked them to pick up instead?

That is ultimately the question, and the only ones who actually moved that I can come up with is Markstrom and maybe Grubauer (though, that hasn't worked out for Seattle so far) or Lehner. There really hasn't been a ton of movement around real quality goalies. The goalies that have moved have otherwise all had question marks. If any others were available, no one was willing to pay the price, which should be somewhat telling about their actual availability.

 

[ZBBM]

L K's analysis is pretty sober, and pretty accurate.

This is going to be a watershed year for this team.  Either they break through and make a genuine run at a championship, or I can see the whole thing imploding, and not just in the front office.

Like Frank says, having your Cup hopes hang on a reclamation project in goal is not something they're going to teach in future Sports Management courses.  It can happen ? Tim Thomas was a prior example IMO ? but sheesh it's shaky.

 

[Frank E]

What goalie in the past three years would you have liked them to pick up instead?

That is ultimately the question, and the only ones who actually moved that I can come up with is Markstrom and maybe Grubauer (though, that hasn't worked out for Seattle so far) or Lehner. There really hasn't been a ton of movement around real quality goalies. The goalies that have moved have otherwise all had question marks. If any others were available, no one was willing to pay the price, which should be somewhat telling about their actual availability.

Honestly guys, you can't tell me there weren't deals to be made to get a good goalie.  Even lopsided ones.

Or how about making the cap space for Markstrom?

It just hasn't been a priority for Dubas, but I really really hope it works out.

 

[bustaheims]

What goalie in the past three years would you have liked them to pick up instead?

That is ultimately the question, and the only ones who actually moved that I can come up with is Markstrom and maybe Grubauer (though, that hasn't worked out for Seattle so far) or Lehner. There really hasn't been a ton of movement around real quality goalies. The goalies that have moved have otherwise all had question marks. If any others were available, no one was willing to pay the price, which should be somewhat telling about their actual availability.

Honestly guys, you can't tell me there weren't deals to be made to get a good goalie.  Even lopsided ones.

Or how about making the cap space for Markstrom?

It just hasn't been a priority for Dubas, but I really really hope it works out.

I?m not convinced there were deals. Teams with quality goalies are loathe to give them up - even for overpayments. That?s why you see so few good goalies get moved. There?s also a real balancing act with any trade to make sure you?re not taking away more than you?re gaining. It?s not as simple as ?overpay and get a deal done.? Never has been.

Other than maybe Markstrom - who may not have wanted to sign here even if the team had cap space - it really is highly likely the opportunities did not exist and could not be created without setting the team back more than it moved them forward.

 

[herman]

Lot of teams fan bases wondering why they didn?t pony up earlier for a 1C like Matthews. Or a top winger like Marner. Or a beautiful Swedish wizard like Nylander.

 

[rdowdall]

Everyone needs to calm down.  This is all by design.  The Leafs are incentivising Matthews to score 70......in the playoffs.

 

[groundskeeper willie]

And I still go back to what Omallley was saying in that why are we here getting scraps again and having Cup hopes hanging on bounceback hopes?

As far as I'm concerned, this should have been managed better over the past 3 years...not just the past 2 weeks.

Goaltending is a big deal with this team that's so fragile because they have had zero success.  This should have been a priority.

I'll join the rest of you and say I'm hoping for the best here, but this is a gamble, and the Leafs shouldn't be gambling with goaltending at this point in the window.

What goalie in the past three years would you have liked them to pick up instead?

Shesterkin. 

That one good enough?

Well he was drafted 8 years ago and didn't change teams since so I'm going to make an assumption that he wasn't an option.

Personally the only one I think they truly missed out on beyond the already mention Lehner and Markstrom was when Jarry was on waivers, but even he's questionable how good he really is.

 

[gunnar36]

Still not quite understanding this.  If a 5x5 offer by Oilers was enough to secure Cambell, do you think Leafs couldnt of also had him on a 5x5?  They are paying Murray 4.6875, a marginal cap savings vs Campbell for someone who needs to still find his game.  And recouping a 3rd and 7th pick shouldn't have been enough incentive to go with a downgrade in net.

 

[bustaheims]

Still not quite understanding this.  If a 5x5 offer by Oilers was enough to secure Cambell, do you think Leafs couldnt of also had him on a 5x5?  They are paying Murray 4.6875, a marginal cap savings vs Campbell for someone who needs to still find his game.  And recouping a 3rd and 7th pick shouldn't have been enough incentive to go with a downgrade in net.

5 years is way too long of a commitment for Campbell.

 

[Kin]

Still not quite understanding this.  If a 5x5 offer by Oilers was enough to secure Cambell, do you think Leafs couldnt of also had him on a 5x5?

I think the subtext there is the Leafs aren't particularly enthusiastic about locking their goaltending situation over the next 5 years to Campbell. Murray, whatever else about him, required a shorter commitment and a chance to re-evaluate next year with a potentially better market.

 

[Andy007]

Still not quite understanding this.  If a 5x5 offer by Oilers was enough to secure Cambell, do you think Leafs couldnt of also had him on a 5x5?  They are paying Murray 4.6875, a marginal cap savings vs Campbell for someone who needs to still find his game.  And recouping a 3rd and 7th pick shouldn't have been enough incentive to go with a downgrade in net.

Murray either equals or bests Campbell in every underlying metric last year. HDSV%, ESSV%, Quality starts, Really Bad Starts, XGSV/60, all while playing on an inferior team behind a much inferior defense. Injury risks abound for both players. I get worrying about the cap hit or health concerns for Murray but I don't get pining for Campbell at 5x5.

 

[Kin]

5 years is way too long of a commitment for Campbell.

Forget Campbell, how many goalies in the league would you really be enthused about making a 5 year commitment to? It may be the cost of doing business in some cases but I'd like to think that five year deals for goalies will become rarer and rarer unless they've got real solid credentials behind them.

 

[bustaheims]

Forget Campbell, how many goalies in the league would you really be enthused about making a 5 year commitment to? It may be the cost of doing business in some cases but I'd like to think that five year deals for goalies will become rarer and rarer unless they've got real solid credentials behind them.

True. I can probably count the guys I'd be comfortable with that term on one hand.