Leafs Sign Shawn Matthias

[Frank E]

I'm in the "liquidate" camp, but a guy like Lupul is obviously not movable...Bozak less so, but let's just say that they haven't found any takers.  Given this, maybe they've convinced themselves to roll the dice on a contender having injury issues mid-season to the extent that they need to make a deal for a top-6 forward, and the Leafs could move them for basically nothing.

I mean, at this point I can see other teams taking on Lupul only if a guy like Brown was thrown in the deal, and I don't think the Leafs are prepared to go down that road yet.

But that was kind of my point. The way I read what herman was saying, he was contending that hanging on to guys like Lupul and Bozak was a strategic choice to both drive up their value and to insulate younger players from the NHL.

The way I see it is that it's not a strategic choice, they're just stuck with some bad contracts. So it doesn't so much matter what they've "convinced" themselves or what sort of scenarios might pop up where a team might trade for Lupul, their hands are just tied there.

Right.  And my point is that their hands aren't really that tied, they just don't want to expend the young assets it would take to make Lupul go away now.  If they go into the season with Lupul on the roster, they'll have convinced themselves that Lupul on the roster is less costly than sending whatever prospect it would take to take Lupul in a deal.

My problem with this is that I think I'd rather have a Leivo in Lupul's spot this year, or one of the other 23 year olds.  If they're sending legitimate prospects to the ECHL because of a log jam, I have a problem with Lupul being part of the logjam. 

If they go into the season with Lupul on the roster, management seems to disagree with me on this. 

 

[Kin]

Right.  And my point is that their hands aren't really that tied, they just don't want to expend the young assets it would take to make Lupul go away now.

Ah. Good point. When I said their hands are tied with regards to these players I should have also included the caveat that if they were willing to trade away Mitch Marner so a team would take Bozak, then it was not an absolute.

Way to keep me honest.

 

[Frank E]

Right.  And my point is that their hands aren't really that tied, they just don't want to expend the young assets it would take to make Lupul go away now.

Ah. Good point. When I said their hands are tied with regards to these players I should have also included the caveat that if they were willing to trade away Mitch Marner so a team would take Bozak, then it was not an absolute.

Way to keep me honest.

I don't really understand the sarcasm here.  Their hands aren't tied, it's just going to cost them more than nothing.   

As of today, they've likely got 8 of 12 as returnees to their forward ranks of daily players (I included Winnik), and 5 of 6 defensemen.

I was told that there would be tough decisions made, and that they were serious about a rebuild.  So, get on with it.  Ya, you're going to have to throw in some sweeteners to get someone to take Lupul, and it's not going to cost you Mitch Marner.  There aren't any hands tied here, just not enough resolve to pay the price yet.

Trading an asset like Kessel or JvR or Reilly isn't very difficult.  Getting rid of the liabilities like Lupul or Phaneuf is where it gets tough.

 

[Kin]

I don't really understand the sarcasm here.  Their hands aren't tied, it's just going to cost them more than nothing.   

I would say that if the choice is between giving away good assets for the rebuild and keeping these guys around then, yes, their hands are effectively tied.

But I concede that it isn't true in a literal or absolute sense.

 

[hobarth]

It appears TO is now sort of becoming the farm team to the rest of the NHL. TO used to sign players that succeeded with other teams, Mogilny, so in essence was using the rest of the NHL as it's farm team, how times have changed. Draft schmaft, said Fletcher.

 

[bustaheims]

It appears TO is now sort of becoming the farm team to the rest of the NHL. TO used to sign players that succeeded with other teams, Mogilny, so in essence was using the rest of the NHL as it's farm team, how times have changed. Draft schmaft, said Fletcher.

And, in large part, it's that sort of way of doing business that has left the Leafs in the position they are now. Under a cap system, you can't look at free agency as an area where your team will acquire significant pieces. For one, they're just not out there very often anymore, but, most importantly, open market free agent contracts on highly sought after players just don't offer good price performance. To be successful in this league, you need to have a number of player contributing well above what is expected from their pay scale. It's also become increasingly important to be aware of when those players have reached the point where they're about to cost more than the value of what they provide, and to then turn those players into cheaper assets for the future (like draft picks and prospects) through trades. That's the only way teams have the opportunity to remain successful long-term.

 

[TML fan]

Right.  And my point is that their hands aren't really that tied, they just don't want to expend the young assets it would take to make Lupul go away now.

Ah. Good point. When I said their hands are tied with regards to these players I should have also included the caveat that if they were willing to trade away Mitch Marner so a team would take Bozak, then it was not an absolute.

Way to keep me honest.

I don't really understand the sarcasm here.  Their hands aren't tied, it's just going to cost them more than nothing.   

As of today, they've likely got 8 of 12 as returnees to their forward ranks of daily players (I included Winnik), and 5 of 6 defensemen.

I was told that there would be tough decisions made, and that they were serious about a rebuild.  So, get on with it.  Ya, you're going to have to throw in some sweeteners to get someone to take Lupul, and it's not going to cost you Mitch Marner.  There aren't any hands tied here, just not enough resolve to pay the price yet.

Trading an asset like Kessel or JvR or Reilly isn't very difficult.  Getting rid of the liabilities like Lupul or Phaneuf is where it gets tough.

And they said Toronto fans couldn't handle a rebuild...

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I'm in the "liquidate" camp, but a guy like Lupul is obviously not movable...Bozak less so, but let's just say that they haven't found any takers.  Given this, maybe they've convinced themselves to roll the dice on a contender having injury issues mid-season to the extent that they need to make a deal for a top-6 forward, and the Leafs could move them for basically nothing.

I mean, at this point I can see other teams taking on Lupul only if a guy like Brown was thrown in the deal, and I don't think the Leafs are prepared to go down that road yet.

But that was kind of my point. The way I read what herman was saying, he was contending that hanging on to guys like Lupul and Bozak was a strategic choice to both drive up their value and to insulate younger players from the NHL.

The way I see it is that it's not a strategic choice, they're just stuck with some bad contracts. So it doesn't so much matter what they've "convinced" themselves or what sort of scenarios might pop up where a team might trade for Lupul, their hands are just tied there.

Right.  And my point is that their hands aren't really that tied, they just don't want to expend the young assets it would take to make Lupul go away now.  If they go into the season with Lupul on the roster, they'll have convinced themselves that Lupul on the roster is less costly than sending whatever prospect it would take to take Lupul in a deal.

My problem with this is that I think I'd rather have a Leivo in Lupul's spot this year, or one of the other 23 year olds.  If they're sending legitimate prospects to the ECHL because of a log jam, I have a problem with Lupul being part of the logjam. 

If they go into the season with Lupul on the roster, management seems to disagree with me on this.

I think you're overestimating how many teams would be willing to take on an injury-prone winger with a $5.25M cap hit for 3 more seasons.  Even if the Leafs said they would take a 3rd rounder back, teams have to factor that hit into their roster and to be honest, as good as Lupul can be, I don't see him having a ton of value right now.  If you can only really count on getting a player 50-60% of the games?  Tough sell.

But really, it's July 7.

 

[L K]

It appears TO is now sort of becoming the farm team to the rest of the NHL. TO used to sign players that succeeded with other teams, Mogilny, so in essence was using the rest of the NHL as it's farm team, how times have changed. Draft schmaft, said Fletcher.

And, in large part, it's that sort of way of doing business that has left the Leafs in the position they are now. Under a cap system, you can't look at free agency as an area where your team will acquire significant pieces. For one, they're just not out there very often anymore, but, most importantly, open market free agent contracts on highly sought after players just don't offer good price performance. To be successful in this league, you need to have a number of player contributing well above what is expected from their pay scale. It's also become increasingly important to be aware of when those players have reached the point where they're about to cost more than the value of what they provide, and to then turn those players into cheaper assets for the future (like draft picks and prospects) through trades. That's the only way teams have the opportunity to remain successful long-term.

Yeah, I mean let's pretend for a second that Carlyle doesn't get fired, the Leafs don't collapse and they finish 4th in the East (3rd in their division) and play Tampa.  We lose in the 1st round but maybe the series is close enough that they push forward with this team.  The top free agent was arguably Matt Belesky this offseason.  A team lacking a #1 center is paying close to 4 million for Matt Belesky and still doesn't have a #1 center. 

Last year was a little deeper with a guy like Paul Stastny out there who is really more of a #2 center.  Not really a guaranteed top line guy out there aside from Vanek (who has his own collection of flaws). 

You just can't get a top player in free agency anymore.  It's a trade or drafting that gets you those true top line players because those guys are legitimately worth a top salary and get signed by their team to long-term deals.

 

[rdowdall]

It appears TO is now sort of becoming the farm team to the rest of the NHL. TO used to sign players that succeeded with other teams, Mogilny, so in essence was using the rest of the NHL as it's farm team, how times have changed. Draft schmaft, said Fletcher.

And, in large part, it's that sort of way of doing business that has left the Leafs in the position they are now. Under a cap system, you can't look at free agency as an area where your team will acquire significant pieces. For one, they're just not out there very often anymore, but, most importantly, open market free agent contracts on highly sought after players just don't offer good price performance. To be successful in this league, you need to have a number of player contributing well above what is expected from their pay scale. It's also become increasingly important to be aware of when those players have reached the point where they're about to cost more than the value of what they provide, and to then turn those players into cheaper assets for the future (like draft picks and prospects) through trades. That's the only way teams have the opportunity to remain successful long-term.

Yeah, I mean let's pretend for a second that Carlyle doesn't get fired, the Leafs don't collapse and they finish 4th in the East (3rd in their division) and play Tampa.  We lose in the 1st round but maybe the series is close enough that they push forward with this team.  The top free agent was arguably Matt Belesky this offseason.  A team lacking a #1 center is paying close to 4 million for Matt Belesky and still doesn't have a #1 center. 

Last year was a little deeper with a guy like Paul Stastny out there who is really more of a #2 center.  Not really a guaranteed top line guy out there aside from Vanek (who has his own collection of flaws). 

You just can't get a top player in free agency anymore.  It's a trade or drafting that gets you those true top line players because those guys are legitimately worth a top salary and get signed by their team to long-term deals.

I would even say trades are few and far between as well.  For the most part you are stuck rebuilding your team through drafting.  There just currently isn't another way.

 

[hobarth]

Trades are going on all the time look what Buffalo has done, look at how LA made themselves a Cup winner.

UFAs work as well, Richards with Chicago, Gaborik with the Kings, Dekeyser with Detroit.

There is no only one true way to shape a roster, the draft is useful but Edmonton, Columbus in the past, Florida has proven that the draft is far from a sure way to become truly successful, actually none of these teams made the playoffs.

I would say the best way to build a team in the cap era is watch your $s, the NYI became better very quickly because cap strapped teams had to trade players for far less than their value and the Islanders had the $s to take advantage.

The greatest limiting factor in a team's success beyond $s is the abilities of those running the team.

 

[herman]

Trades are going on all the time look what Buffalo has done, look at how LA made themselves a Cup winner.

UFAs work as well, Richards with Chicago, Gaborik with the Kings, Dekeyser with Detroit.

There is no only one true way to shape a roster, the draft is useful but Edmonton, Columbus in the past, Florida has proven that the draft is far from a sure way to become truly successful, actually none of these teams made the playoffs.

I would say the best way to build a team in the cap era is watch your $s, the NYI became better very quickly because cap strapped teams had to trade players for far less than their value and the Islanders had the $s to take advantage.

The greatest limiting factor in a team's success beyond $s is the abilities of those running the team.

And the best way to watch your $s is to focus on drafting and developing your homegrown players because you'll have better cost control of them in the ELC/RFA years. You can't control who becomes available via Trade or Free Agency, nor can you control the market value those pieces come in at, so building a roster by those routes is not a long-term solution. Of course you should be opportunistic when a piece that can complement your core arises, but the required cap flexibility comes from managing your 'free' assets.

 

[hobarth]

Trades are going on all the time look what Buffalo has done, look at how LA made themselves a Cup winner.

UFAs work as well, Richards with Chicago, Gaborik with the Kings, Dekeyser with Detroit.

There is no only one true way to shape a roster, the draft is useful but Edmonton, Columbus in the past, Florida has proven that the draft is far from a sure way to become truly successful, actually none of these teams made the playoffs.

I would say the best way to build a team in the cap era is watch your $s, the NYI became better very quickly because cap strapped teams had to trade players for far less than their value and the Islanders had the $s to take advantage.

The greatest limiting factor in a team's success beyond $s is the abilities of those running the team.

And the best way to watch your $s is to focus on drafting and developing your homegrown players because you'll have better cost control of them in the ELC/RFA years. You can't control who becomes available via Trade or Free Agency, nor can you control the market value those pieces come in at, so building a roster by those routes is not a long-term solution. Of course you should be opportunistic when a piece that can complement your core arises, but the required cap flexibility comes from managing your 'free' assets.

I expect next year and many after to be very difficult for Leaf fans so I wouldn't call high end draft choices "free" assets. Buffalo has accumulated many draft choices and they appear tired of the extremely slow draft and develop method so they've used some of their assets to improve their team now with an eye to the future and I say good for them, Edmonton appears content to draft and develop so they are apparently making some progress but at their present pace I expect Eberle and maybe more will be 30 before they have a truly competitive team.

With the benefit of hindsight I've seen it argued that Edmonton drafted wrong, they simply took the BPA, Hall instead of Seguin, Yakupov instead of Murray and they're probably right so we can see extreme patience is an extremely long process that doesn't guarantee success. The #1 overall choices aren't an automatic formula for success, it's the proper utilization of all means in the building process, FAs, trades, are as important as drafting.

Money is a team's greatest asset and getting your best young players locked into realistic contracts while using RFAdom as the leverage is possibly the best way to maximize both. Philly locking up JVR on a long term contract looks like a bargain now and he is but stringing along say Kadri, continuously offering him short term contracts is simply a waste of $s, either he's good enough to pay 4 mil. maybe 3 years ago or make a decision, move him if he isn't.

Matthias is a good signing because he'll probably will be an asset at the right price point, I figure normally UFAs should be approached with caution, better players are locked up, players with warts become UFAs but in the cap world that might not be totally true any more.   
     

 

[Al14]

Another asset that you can flip at the deadline.

So, I have to think that one of Bozak or Holland is out?

Why does every signing always have to end up as trade fodder?

 

[Bullfrog]

R    E    B    U    I    L    D

 

[Andy007]

Why does every rebuild have to be fraught with so much trade fodder?

 

[Bullfrog]

M    O    R    E        P    I    C    K    S        &        P    R    O    S    P    E    C    T    S

 

[dappleganger]

I just want to say I like this signing. Matthias has good size and he has the skill to put up points if given the opportunity. He's entering his prime years.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

M    O    R    E        P    I    C    K    S        &        P    R    O    S    P    E    C    T    S

I        L    I    K    E        W    H    A    T        Y    O    U  '  V    E        D    O    N    E        H    E    R    E

 

[moon111]

This was the one move the Leafs made that had me wonder what exactly are the Leafs putting on the ice.  And to see line-ups being made earlier, don't think I'm the only one in that regard.