Looking down the pipeline

[herman]

I really don't understand the criticism of Gardiner in his own end. He gives it away periodically (as all defenceman do) but his gap control and positioning are strong, which is probably why the Leafs get a lot more shots than the other team while he is on the ice.

The real defensive problems are the likes of Zaitsev and Polak, who are positionally wonky and often blindly fire it away when they do manage to get control.

I think our right side in general appears to be instructed to 'keep it safe/simple' and to try to get the puck to the left. Varying degrees of success thus far.

 

[bustaheims]

However, if you don't see that Gardiner is prone to the "big mistake" more than most other dman of his caliber/lineup slot, you are either lying, blind or not watching enough hockey aside from the Leafs.

Honestly, I'm not sure if that's true anymore. I think a lot of what gives that impression that people really harp on his mistakes, because he made a lot of them back when Carlyle was trying to make him something he's not. He definitely made more mistakes back then. I'm not convinced he does now. I strongly feel like there's some confirmation bias going on these days.

 

[Strangelove]

I really don't understand the criticism of Gardiner in his own end. He gives it away periodically (as all defenceman do) but his gap control and positioning are strong, which is probably why the Leafs get a lot more shots than the other team while he is on the ice.

The real defensive problems are the likes of Zaitsev and Polak, who are positionally wonky and often blindly fire it away when they do manage to get control.

You're right that Gardiner is a net positive and is of huge value to the team.

However, if you don't see that Gardiner is prone to the "big mistake" more than most other dman of his caliber/lineup slot, you are either lying, blind or not watching enough hockey aside from the Leafs.

I love Gardiner, but it's a love-hate relationship at times.

The "big mistake" phenomenon is mostly a matter of certain fans looking for it, it seems to me (i.e. confirmation bias). There's no real evidence to suggest that he's more prone to big mistakes than other defenceman. At the same time, there are plenty of analytic statistics to show that he's a strong defender.

 

[Highlander]

As long as we're "looking down the pipeline", this is not super encouraging...right?

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2018/2/20/17025978/toronto-maple-leafs-prospect-report-fedor-gordeev-dakota-joshua-injury-keaton-middleton

That's one perspective.

The other is that we've hit on some recent first rounders and they've largely bypassed the CHL and made the jump to pros.

Liljegren: AHL
Matthews: NHL
Marner: Junior --> NHL
Nylander: SHL --> AHL x2 --> NHL

Our key middle draft picks from the CHL have mostly graduated (Timashov, Dzierkals, Dermott, Bracco, Brooks), or are still slow developing big D-men (Middleton, Mattinen, Desrocher (bye), Gordeev, Rasanen).

Our other depth picks are NCAA or Euro-league players who are developing slightly out of sight/out of mind and have a good deal more run-way before we have to make any contractual decisions. So yeah, the pipeline isn't sexy right now, but that's mostly because a lot of that sex appeal is already in Toronto.

Some people see negativity in a report that to me was neutral and in the case of Gordeev  (1 goal as per report) with the comments the scouts are making about him, actually make him intriguing and someone on our radar screen.
We must remember that the Leafs/Marlies have developed the best training systems in our known universe for development.  Even a guy like Marchment is having making some really impressive strides under Keefe.  I guess what I am saying is that they are trying to max everyones potential.  Not many organizations do this.

 

[herman]

Good point Highlander. We are getting pretty good value on the players we?ve added outside the draft.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

The "big mistake" phenomenon is mostly a matter of certain fans looking for it, it seems to me (i.e. confirmation bias). There's no real evidence to suggest that he's more prone to big mistakes than other defenceman. At the same time, there are plenty of analytic statistics to show that he's a strong defender.

I'd say outside of the back half of last season and the stretch since Reilly got hurt this season, he still was really prone to launching grenades in his own end.

When he is on though, he is a legit top three offensive dman and even on his worst day he is no worse than a #4.

 

[Frank E]

I really don't understand the criticism of Gardiner in his own end. He gives it away periodically (as all defenceman do) but his gap control and positioning are strong, which is probably why the Leafs get a lot more shots than the other team while he is on the ice.

The real defensive problems are the likes of Zaitsev and Polak, who are positionally wonky and often blindly fire it away when they do manage to get control.

You're right that Gardiner is a net positive and is of huge value to the team.

However, if you don't see that Gardiner is prone to the "big mistake" more than most other dman of his caliber/lineup slot, you are either lying, blind or not watching enough hockey aside from the Leafs.

I love Gardiner, but it's a love-hate relationship at times.

The "big mistake" phenomenon is mostly a matter of certain fans looking for it, it seems to me (i.e. confirmation bias). There's no real evidence to suggest that he's more prone to big mistakes than other defenceman. At the same time, there are plenty of analytic statistics to show that he's a strong defender.

I'm with WIGWAL.

I think BustaStrange is nuts.  Gardiner has always had trouble in his own zone, maybe less so this season, and less last year than the year previous, but he still has more than his fair share of brain farts.  People jump all over Polak for every bumble in his zone, then forgive Gardiner because of what he does in the NZ and OZ. 

Rielly doesn't seem to make those brutal plays nearly as often, neither does Hainsey.

 

[Kin]

I really don't see how anyone could possibly be watching enough non-Leafs hockey to have a really good idea of how Gardiner rates in the league at a fairly subjective thing like a "big" mistake.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This conversation reminded me of this tweet that I enjoyed from last week:

https://twitter.com/JaredOfLondon/status/965225972210552835

 

[CarltonTheBear]

To me, Gardiner's biggest problem defensively problem isn't the giveaways when he's trying to execute high-risk plays that most players couldn't even dream of doing. It when he's actually trying to slow the game down that he makes the most mistakes. Especially along the boards in the defensive end. You often see him with the puck and he thinks he has a lot more time so he holds onto it a little longer than he should and a forechecker comes in and plays the body and takes the puck off him.

 

[Strangelove]

I really don't understand the criticism of Gardiner in his own end. He gives it away periodically (as all defenceman do) but his gap control and positioning are strong, which is probably why the Leafs get a lot more shots than the other team while he is on the ice.

The real defensive problems are the likes of Zaitsev and Polak, who are positionally wonky and often blindly fire it away when they do manage to get control.

You're right that Gardiner is a net positive and is of huge value to the team.

However, if you don't see that Gardiner is prone to the "big mistake" more than most other dman of his caliber/lineup slot, you are either lying, blind or not watching enough hockey aside from the Leafs.

I love Gardiner, but it's a love-hate relationship at times.

The "big mistake" phenomenon is mostly a matter of certain fans looking for it, it seems to me (i.e. confirmation bias). There's no real evidence to suggest that he's more prone to big mistakes than other defenceman. At the same time, there are plenty of analytic statistics to show that he's a strong defender.

I'm with WIGWAL.

I think BustaStrange is nuts.  Gardiner has always had trouble in his own zone, maybe less so this season, and less last year than the year previous, but he still has more than his fair share of brain farts.  People jump all over Polak for every bumble in his zone, then forgive Gardiner because of what he does in the NZ and OZ. 

Rielly doesn't seem to make those brutal plays nearly as often, neither does Hainsey.

Again, the "brutal play" perception is confirmation bias. Hainsey and Polak routinely blindly fire it up the boards and give it away but this kind of play doesn't register on anyone's radar because no one is expecting any more from these guys.

Gardiner routinely makes exceptional breakout plays but gets called out when the odd one goes wrong because certain fans anticipate things going wrong (even when they generally don't).

As I said before, there's a reason Gardiner's Corsi (and other possession stats) are always strong. it's because he's a good defender (and certainly no more prone to "brutal" giveaways than other good defenders). Gardiner's possession numbers are much stronger than Hainsey, Zaitsev and Polak, and are even stronger than Rielly's (though not by a whole lot).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Hainsey and Polak routinely blindly fire it up the boards and give it away but this kind of play doesn't register on anyone's radar because no one is expecting any more from these guys.

If the NHL historically tracked those sort of plays as "giveaways" like they should I guarantee you more fans would see those types of players in a different light.

 

[herman]

https://mapleleafsnation.com/2018/02/13/leafs-geeks-podcast-microstats-with-andrew-berkshire/

LGP had a god sit down with Andrew Berkshire of Sportslogiq/Sportsnet recently about how microstats are tracked by their code and how they are categorized (i.e. successful plays) and how the Leafs grade out relative to one another. They talk specifically about Gardiner's turnovers around the 14 min mark.

 

[Highlander]

How did a prospect thread get hijacked by a discussion on Jake G. Perhaps time to start his own thread somewhere else. 8)

 

[herman]

Here's a deeper dive into:

 

[L K]

Hainsey and Polak routinely blindly fire it up the boards and give it away but this kind of play doesn't register on anyone's radar because no one is expecting any more from these guys.

If the NHL historically tracked those sort of plays as "giveaways" like they should I guarantee you more fans would see those types of players in a different light.

I don't understand why they aren't.  Sometimes dumping it out of the zone might actually be the best play (no-one really open after getting hemmed in for a long time and you have the short change) but Giveaways and Takeaways are already poorly tracked so I'm not sure why they couldn't throw that in as a stat.  Especially those clearly unforced ones.