Maple Leafs are better, but are they a playoff team?

[cw]

Like the article said about the Devils who were the best 2nd half team: it depends on which team shows up. I wouldn't be shocked if they made the playoffs.

 

[Kin]

Tough to make that sort of comment about the Devils and then not mention Parise at all.

 

[cw]

Tough to make that sort of comment about the Devils and then not mention Parise at all.

.. offset some/maybe a lot by the retirement of Lemaire in my opinion

 

[Kin]

.. offset some/maybe a lot by the retirement of Lemaire in my opinion

Possibly. Still, I doubt there are many teams who'd have a lot of success after losing their best player.

 

[Fanatic]

Like the article said about the Devils who were the best 2nd half team: it depends on which team shows up. I wouldn't be shocked if they made the playoffs.

I see this type of thing a lot where you read such and such a team was the best in the final 20 games or since the all-star break etc. Where do you actually go to see that? How can someone look up to see how the Leafs were compared to all other teams, say since Reimer started?

 

[Corn Flake]

Tough to make that sort of comment about the Devils and then not mention Parise at all.

.. offset some/maybe a lot by the retirement of Lemaire in my opinion

And which Brodeur shows up. He was pretty bad, plus the injuries. 

 

[Bender]

Like the article said about the Devils who were the best 2nd half team: it depends on which team shows up. I wouldn't be shocked if they made the playoffs.

I see this type of thing a lot where you read such and such a team was the best in the final 20 games or since the all-star break etc. Where do you actually go to see that? How can someone look up to see how the Leafs were compared to all other teams, say since Reimer started?

It's also a strange thing when the Leafs had a equally good streak but they're discounted. I understand they didn't have Parise and went on a tear, but our players overall I think were markedly worse. Tim Brent? Joey Crabb? Darryl Boyce?

I think this year all bets are off unless you're talking about the likely top four in the East and maybe the bottom three or four.

 

[cw]

Like the article said about the Devils who were the best 2nd half team: it depends on which team shows up. I wouldn't be shocked if they made the playoffs.

I see this type of thing a lot where you read such and such a team was the best in the final 20 games or since the all-star break etc. Where do you actually go to see that? How can someone look up to see how the Leafs were compared to all other teams, say since Reimer started?

It was documented as the season went along. I'd refer you to the old thread but ...  For quite a stretch, the Devils were playing .800 hockey.

For Reimer, I'd just look up when he started playing and the look at the game by game stats on NHL.com since then to get a win% (which was well over .600 hockey)

 

[Fanatic]

For Reimer, I'd just look up when he started playing and the look at the game by game stats on NHL.com since then to get a win% (which was well over .600 hockey)

I get how to look up the Leafs record since Reimer started. I was just wondering, for example, if there was a site that allowed you to look up the Leafs against every other team in the NHL during that same time period.

 

[cw]

Like the article said about the Devils who were the best 2nd half team: it depends on which team shows up. I wouldn't be shocked if they made the playoffs.

I see this type of thing a lot where you read such and such a team was the best in the final 20 games or since the all-star break etc. Where do you actually go to see that? How can someone look up to see how the Leafs were compared to all other teams, say since Reimer started?

It's also a strange thing when the Leafs had a equally good streak but they're discounted.

The Leafs were very roughly 100 to 150 win% pts behind the Devils streak until the Devils got eliminated. The Leafs had a good streak but not one I would describe as an "equally good streak" as the Devils. The Sabres had a better streak as well in my opinion.

 

[cw]

For Reimer, I'd just look up when he started playing and the look at the game by game stats on NHL.com since then to get a win% (which was well over .600 hockey)

I get how to look up the Leafs record since Reimer started. I was just wondering, for example, if there was a site that allowed you to look up the Leafs against every other team in the NHL during that same time period.

There used to be a site that tracked "after the all star break win% records" but they went off line. That's what to search for for a quick peak though the Devils, Leafs and Sabres all began their improved play/streaks well before the all star break.

 

[bustaheims]

It was documented as the season went along. I'd refer you to the old thread but ...  For quite a stretch, the Devils were playing .800 hockey.

For Reimer, I'd just look up when he started playing and the look at the game by game stats on NHL.com since then to get a win% (which was well over .600 hockey)

From Reimer's 1st start, the Leafs played at a 98 point pace - and that's including a 2 week stretch where Reimer was back in the minors and the team clearly wasn't as confident, as well as the last week of the season, where the team had given up. Overall, they played roughly .600 hockey from January 1st on.

The Devils turned their season around at roughly same point and played at a 107 point pace, or roughly .656 winning percentage from January 1st on (Lemaire took over on the 22nd of December). They had a fantastic February, but slowed down significantly in March. They weren't eliminated until about a week before the Leafs.

Both teams turned it around after a significant change - the Leafs with their starting goalie, the Devils with their coach - and both teams have question marks around those positions going into this season. The big difference is that the Leafs still have the guy responsible for turning their season around, while the Devils have another new coach. Being that the Devils' turn around was so directly related to Lemaire and his system, I'm inclined to say the Leafs have a better chance at repeating their success. I'm just not confident DeBoer will be as capable of keeping the team so committed to a defensive minded system as Lemaire was, or if his attempt to do so will be as successful.

 

[Kin]

It's also a strange thing when the Leafs had a equally good streak but they're discounted. I understand they didn't have Parise and went on a tear, but our players overall I think were markedly worse. Tim Brent? Joey Crabb? Darryl Boyce?

Like cw says, it wasn't equally good. Likewise the Devils had some AHL journeymen on their roster as well. Tim Sestito, Rod Pelley and so on.

 

[cw]

It was documented as the season went along. I'd refer you to the old thread but ...  For quite a stretch, the Devils were playing .800 hockey.

For Reimer, I'd just look up when he started playing and the look at the game by game stats on NHL.com since then to get a win% (which was well over .600 hockey)

From Reimer's 1st start, the Leafs played at a 98 point pace - and that's including a 2 week stretch where Reimer was back in the minors and the team clearly wasn't as confident, as well as the last week of the season, where the team had given up. Overall, they played roughly .600 hockey from January 1st on.

The Devils turned their season around at roughly same point and played at a 107 point pace, or roughly .656 winning percentage from January 1st on (Lemaire took over on the 22nd of December). They had a fantastic February, but slowed down significantly in March. They weren't eliminated until about a week before the Leafs.

Both teams turned it around after a significant change - the Leafs with their starting goalie, the Devils with their coach - and both teams have question marks around those positions going into this season. The big difference is that the Leafs still have the guy responsible for turning their season around, while the Devils have another new coach. Being that the Devils' turn around was so directly related to Lemaire and his system, I'm inclined to say the Leafs have a better chance at repeating their success. I'm just not confident DeBoer will be as capable of keeping the team so committed to a defensive minded system as Lemaire was, or if his attempt to do so will be as successful.

Last 41 games of the season
Leafs  .573
Devils .707
- Reimer had already been called up before the second half started
- the Devils were knocked out of playoff contention before the Leafs because they were in a deeper hole when Lemaire took over.

And there's a difference between the timing of when a goalie can have impact vs a coach. A goalie can start making an impact game one of his arrival. A coach coming in often needs some games to adjust systems, personnel, etc - as Lemaire did - a couple of weeks to get Kovalchuk to buy in, etc.

I don't regard the record of what the two teams did in the second half as "equally good streaks". The Devils reportedly had the best record in hockey in the second half while the Leafs were decent but not that close.

 

[Bender]

I didnt say it was better. I just get the sense that the Devils are thought of as better contenders than the Leafs based on their previous record. I dont think that record is very relevant on its own, let alone with Lemaire gone. I think were going to see Philly Washington, Pittsburgh, Boston and maybe NYR as a top 5 with the last 3 spots being fought tooth and nail by five or six other teams in ehich it would be hard to make a prediction for. I wouldnt have predicted Miller/Sabres bombing early on last year or the devils falling flat only to have the best win percentage. I think the final three spots will be up to the season to play itself out, rather than a player A is better than player B extrapolation

 

[maplesyrup]

Next update...

Eastern

15. Ottawa
14. Florida
13. Winnipeg
12. New York Islanders
11. New Jersey
10. Toronto

Western

15. Edmonton
14. Phoenix
13. Dallas
12. Columbus
11. Minnesota
10. Calgary

I think 10th is a pretty fair forcast for Toronto in the East by The Hockey News. 10th for Calgary in the West? Personally, I don't like their outlook any more than any of the teams forcasted behind them. 

 

[Bender]

Next update...

Eastern

15. Ottawa
14. Florida
13. Winnipeg
12. New York Islanders
11. New Jersey
10. Toronto

Western

15. Edmonton
14. Phoenix
13. Dallas
12. Columbus
11. Minnesota
10. Calgary

I think 10th is a pretty fair forcast for Toronto in the East by The Hockey News. 10th for Calgary in the West? Personally, I don't like their outlook any more than any of the teams forcasted behind them.

I suppose it's fair. At the same time, I think this year is going to be an absolute dogfight for the last three spots. Those will be very unpredictable and probably very fluid. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Habs fall out of playoff contention.

 

[maplesyrup]

I suppose it's fair. At the same time, I think this year is going to be an absolute dogfight for the last three spots. Those will be very unpredictable and probably very fluid. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Habs fall out of playoff contention.

I think Montreal is in the same boat Toronto is in who, quite honestly, is in the same boat as a lot of teams are. Goaltending, goaltending, goaltending. If Price plays as well as he did last year, they're in... the year before? They're probably out as you suggest.

 

[bustaheims]

I think 10th is a pretty fair forcast for Toronto in the East by The Hockey News. 10th for Calgary in the West? Personally, I don't like their outlook any more than any of the teams forcasted behind them.

It's tough to handicap, because there isn't a lot of difference in the talent levels for the teams that will be in the 6th-12th range in the East. In fact, I'd go as far as saying there are only 2 real playoff locks in the East (Washington and Boston - depending on health, of course), maybe 3, depending on what the deal is with Crosby. Every other team has some pretty big questions surrounding them or some obvious areas of deficiency that could potentially cost them a playoff spot.

 

[maplesyrup]

I think 10th is a pretty fair forcast for Toronto in the East by The Hockey News. 10th for Calgary in the West? Personally, I don't like their outlook any more than any of the teams forcasted behind them.

It's tough to handicap, because there isn't a lot of difference in the talent levels for the teams that will be in the 6th-12th range in the East. In fact, I'd go as far as saying there are only 2 real playoff locks in the East (Washington and Boston - depending on health, of course), maybe 3, depending on what the deal is with Crosby. Every other team has some pretty big questions surrounding them or some obvious areas of deficiency that could potentially cost them a playoff spot.

Pittsburgh is a lock too I think... With or without the kid. I'm also very close to calling TB a lock but will refrain for the moment.

Edit: It's also very hard for me to imagine Philly or the Rags out of the dance with a healthy Bryzgalov and Lundqvist, respectfully.