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Maple Leafs in the market for a new Goalie

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cabber24 said:
I am always amazed how goalies around the NHL seem to come out of no where? Hammond last year and Condon this year. I suggest the Leafs be patient, you never know. It's not something I think they should be moving assets for yet.
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I agree with this.  I haven't seen anyone who is able to predict how goaltenders will turn out.  And how much of a goaltender's apparent abilities are team defense vs luck vs true skill seem really hard to know.  Burning low round picks on goalie drafting or trades seems reasonable, as does waiting around until there is lots of supply on the market. 
 
I think a good enough % of the best goalies in the league are high draft picks, or at least top 3 rounds draft picks, that I'd be pretty hesitant to abandon traditional methods of looking for a top flight goaltender.

Even if you want to argue that looking for goalies elsewhere presents potential for good value, I think you'd be particularly hard pressed to find goalies drafted low in the draft who then made their marks early in their careers. If the Leafs plan is to be good 6-8 years from now, that'd be one thing but I think most people are game planning around a return to respectability in half that time.
 
I had hoped Toronto would pick Ilya Samsonov with the 24th pick, prior to them trading it. Ultimately, he got picked 22nd by Washington. Because they had the 4th overall pick, I thought this would be the year to take a chance on a goalie at the draft.
 
I guess we may end up with a couple of extra picks if some of our rental vets can turn on the heat for the rest of the season. Looks like Pittsburg should make the playoffs so we should get their 1st round pick for Kessel. So out of these picks perhaps we get a goalie perhaps not. Bergman may be spotting a few potential candidates in the Nordic lands as well.
 
If we tighten up our structure play in front, we can make an average goaltender look good (a la Jimmy Howard). I'd say run with whoever wins the Bernier/Reimer contest this season and back him up with Bibeau/whatever backup goalie is thrown our way at the deadline. No need to sink assets beyond a 3rd/4th rd pick.
 
I love this quote by Bernier today "Bernier, hurt in a game in Pittsburgh, did not disclose his injury.
"Obviously, I'm going to feel it for a while," he said. "I don't think you ever feel 100 per cent. But I feel good enough to play.

I think most NHL players are playing hurt at some point during the season and very few gripe about it.  I am not a fan of this guy, may go back to admitting he is not mentally tough at 26.
Can't wait to see him go.
 
Highlander said:
I love this quote by Bernier today "Bernier, hurt in a game in Pittsburgh, did not disclose his injury.
"Obviously, I'm going to feel it for a while," he said. "I don't think you ever feel 100 per cent. But I feel good enough to play.

I think most NHL players are playing hurt at some point during the season and very few gripe about it.  I am not a fan of this guy, may go back to admitting he is not mentally tough at 26.
Can't wait to see him go.
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him admitting that he's playing banged up is a gripe?
 
An interesting look at rebound control via a few different metrics.

The myth that James Reimer has poor rebound control.

For James Reimer, however, the story is a bit different ? Reimer?s puck freezing ability hasn?t been nearly as bad as many Leafs fans and analysts would have you believe, and he?s been above average in most of his seasons to date. Even including his forgettable 2011-2012 season, where he struggled with injuries including missing 19 games with what many have speculated was a concussion, Reimer places in the top 5 amongst all goalies since 2009, with an overall Frozen Shot Percentage of 34.0%.

Even better news for Reimer is that this remains a very persistent skill for goalies ? the year to year correlation for goalies who saves at least 500 shots at 5v5 is 0.58, which is extremely high for a goaltending metric. Put more simply, the percent of shots that a goalie freezes may be the most repeatable talent that a goalie possesses which we can measure. A goalie?s Frozen Shot Percentage in one year is a fairly strong predictor of their Frozen Shot Percentage in the next year, meaning that when we see a goalie?s numbers in a given season, we can trust that they won?t likely too far off that mark in the future.
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No matter which method we use to measure rebound control, it?s pretty clear that James Reimer?s struggles in this regard are greatly overstated. While he may not have the elite glove-hand of Pekka Rinne, the Leafs? 1A netminder still remains one of the better players in the game at freezing the puck or deflecting it out of harm?s way. Although there?s no ?one-number? statistic to measure rebound control, it?s clear that each of these components forms an important piece of a goalie?s skillset, and that each metric that we?ve proposed here is at least partially talent. These metrics give us a more granular view of a goalie?s performance, and can help identify the differing ways in which certain goaltenders approach rebound control, and ultimately, how they try to keep the puck out of their net.
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Just an update.

Reimer 4-2-3  .920 SV%  .941 5v5 SV% (10th amongst NHL goalies playing at least 300 minutes)
Bernier 0-6-1  .899 SV%.  .915 5v5 SV% (31st amongst NHL goalies playing at least 300 minutes)
 
Patrick said:
LuncheonMeat said:
Patrick said:
Just an update.

Reimer 4-2-3  .920 SV%
Bernier 0-6-1  .899 SV%.
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And as soon as Bernier is ready he'll be back in the starter position.
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You hope.  ;)

I edited the post and added in the 5v5 numbers too, which is a much more reliable metric.
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Reimer has been great in the past few games, but he's also done what you would expect from your backup. Hold down the fort until your starter returns. And I really think that's how the Leafs/Babcock will treat this season. Bernier is the starter and will be given every opportunity to earn a long-term deal. Reimer is a NHL backup, it just remains to be seen if he is the Leafs' backup going forward. If he continues to play the way he has, they may keep him around in that role. Of course, that assumes he would want to stay.
 
Heroic Shrimp said:
I feel so conflicted in my desire to see James Reimer enjoy personal success while also wanting to see the team as a whole fail.
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Same here. I really like Reimer, he's such an easy guy to get behind. And unlike other players that I really like like Kadri, Rielly, and Gardiner, Reimer's success is so closely linked to the team's success.

With that said, I'm pretty confident that he won't be given the starters job because of this. Reimer will have one stumble and then Bernier will be given the reigns again. Then Reimer will have to go back to playing once every week and a half and he seems to struggle with that type of playing schedule.
 
Heroic Shrimp said:
I feel so conflicted in my desire to see James Reimer enjoy personal success while also wanting to see the team as a whole fail.
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If we trade him, then he can still have personal success while the Leafs lose. Everybody (else) wins!
 
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