Mitch Marner: what now?

[Zee]

Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

Matthews scores more goals and is a center which has more responsibility on ice as opposed to winger.  You can make a case that Marner also kills penalties while Matthews doesn't, however traditionally scoring centers are more valued in the league and are more difficult to replace.

The main reason it's unfair to compare the 2 players comes down to a few things. While their numbers are virtually identical regarding pts, Marner played exclusively with John freaking Tavares who has done nothing in his career but made his wingers a lot better. Marner does not get 94 points without him. Matthews played with 3rd liners. Centre is also the harder position to play and goal scoring is the hardest thing to do in hockey. The fact that the media keeps saying he should ask for Matthews' money is ridiculous and very misleading really.

To add to that, Matthews turned into a point a game player in his 2nd season, Marner wasn't that while playing with Bozak and JVR and only took off this year as you said playing with Tavares. Matthews is slightly better than point per game this year, and again he was playing with guys who are best suited as 2nd liners I think in Johnsson and Kapanen.  Pair an elite winger with Auston (hello Nylander) and you'll see Matthews surpass 90+ points (if he stays healthy of course).  Also, a goal every second game for Auston is hard to ignore, he's a legit 40 goal man and could get 50.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

From Chris Johnson on Steve Dangle's podcast that herman linked to in the offseason thread:

Adam: Now we're hearing that it's gotta be north of $11mil otherwise they won't accept it

CJ: You're going to hear a lot of things. Agents say a lot of things. Trust me it's my job to call them. There's a lot of things, it's sorta like you leak the odd thing to a certain guy who just tweets what you say but it doesn't mean that's what you do when push comes to shove.

 

[herman]

July 1: "Mitch Marner is such a hometown hero who bleeds blue for taking that discount on his contract at 9.6916M instead of the 12.67M he could've easily commanded"

And now for 4 straight Mitch Marner ads

 

[Zee]

From Chris Johnson on Steve Dangle's podcast that herman linked to in the offseason thread:

Adam: Now we're hearing that it's gotta be north of $11mil otherwise they won't accept it

CJ: You're going to hear a lot of things. Agents say a lot of things. Trust me it's my job to call them. There's a lot of things, it's sorta like you leak the odd thing to a certain guy who just tweets what you say but it doesn't mean that's what you do when push comes to shove.

I heard that too.  I also heard Dangle's theory that Mitch takes something like $9.95 to keep it under that magic 10 number and he's seen as a hero in Toronto for "taking less".  I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

As I'm listening to this Chris Johnson podcast, I feel like he pretty much summed it up best by saying: "Matthews and Tavares both play centre and they both score more goals... the truth of the matter is if you look at the way money is doled out in the NHL, centres who score get the most money. And it's because its the hardest position to play, it's the hardest to find to replace, and it's the hardest thing to do in this whole game, is score goals. And Mitch Marner does all kinds of amazing stuff but he doesn't tick those two boxes."

 

[Guilt Trip]

Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

As I'm listening to this Chris Johnson podcast, I feel like he pretty much summed it up best by saying: "Matthews and Tavares both play centre and they both score more goals... the truth of the matter is if you look at the way money is doled out in the NHL, centres who score get the most money. And it's because its the hardest position to play, it's the hardest to find to replace, and it's the hardest thing to do in this whole game, is score goals. And Mitch Marner does all kinds of amazing stuff but he doesn't tick those two boxes."

He's right. Wing is the easiest position to play. No one is going to offer sheet Marner 12 mill. It's not happening. When all this crap is over I'll be looking forward to watching this core play for the next 5 or so years. Good times are ahead.

 

[TML fan]

The player market makes no sense to me. I also hate the salary cap. Good day.

 

[L K]

Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

As I'm listening to this Chris Johnson podcast, I feel like he pretty much summed it up best by saying: "Matthews and Tavares both play centre and they both score more goals... the truth of the matter is if you look at the way money is doled out in the NHL, centres who score get the most money. And it's because its the hardest position to play, it's the hardest to find to replace, and it's the hardest thing to do in this whole game, is score goals. And Mitch Marner does all kinds of amazing stuff but he doesn't tick those two boxes."

Matthews wasn't on the ice for 13 goals this postseason.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

As I'm listening to this Chris Johnson podcast, I feel like he pretty much summed it up best by saying: "Matthews and Tavares both play centre and they both score more goals... the truth of the matter is if you look at the way money is doled out in the NHL, centres who score get the most money. And it's because its the hardest position to play, it's the hardest to find to replace, and it's the hardest thing to do in this whole game, is score goals. And Mitch Marner does all kinds of amazing stuff but he doesn't tick those two boxes."

Matthews wasn't on the ice for 13 goals this postseason.

Very true. Mitch didn't have a good series and that's unfortunate for us. He'll be better as will all the other young guns, no doubt.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

Matthews wasn't on the ice for 13 goals this postseason.

Is that 5 on 5 only, or penalty kill, which Matthews doesn't play?

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

As I'm listening to this Chris Johnson podcast, I feel like he pretty much summed it up best by saying: "Matthews and Tavares both play centre and they both score more goals... the truth of the matter is if you look at the way money is doled out in the NHL, centres who score get the most money. And it's because its the hardest position to play, it's the hardest to find to replace, and it's the hardest thing to do in this whole game, is score goals. And Mitch Marner does all kinds of amazing stuff but he doesn't tick those two boxes."

I agree, I think goals top the list for what earns the big bucks, all else being equal. And in this case, it's not really close. Plus, center vs. winger turns the dial even more.

Goals/60:

Auston Matthews
2016/17:  1.7
2017/18:  1.8
2018/19:  1.8

Mitch Marner
2016/17:  0.9
2017/18:  1.0
2018/19:  1.0

Edit: And I think if Matthews plays with a winger like Marner, or even Nylander, that G/60 easily tops 2.0. If Marner plays with Matthews, I'm not sure his G/60 changes, or his assists for that matter.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Matthews wasn't on the ice for 13 goals this postseason.

Is that 5 on 5 only, or penalty kill, which Matthews doesn't play?

That was total. 9 at EV. The 6-4 loss was the really bad game for the JT line. JT was on for 4, Marner 5 and Hyman was on for all 6 against. It's unfortunate that the line struggled and that he an Hyman weren't good on the PK. Fact is the PK wasn't good since Nov so.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Kypreos spewing his crap about the offer needs to be on par with. Matthews or Marner's going to July 1 to see what's out there. I'm sure Paul told him that.

 

[disco]

I'm thinking it'll be less than Auston/JT, we'll see how much. Duration: probably a bridge, maybe a year of free-agency. Bottom line, going to July 1st/offer sheet territory, it won't happen. If it gets to the eleventh hour Mitchy will call, same as Willy and say let's do it. There's no way this guy is not playing for his Toronto Maple Leafs moving forward.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I'm thinking it'll be less than Auston/JT but not by much. Duration, probably a bridge, maybe a year of free-agency. Bottom line, going to July 1st/offer sheet territory, it won't happen. If it gets to the eleventh hour Mitchy will call, same as Willy and say let's do it. There's no way this guy is not playing for his Toronto Maple Leafs moving forward.

Offer sheet territory means absolutely nothing unless Mitch signs it. I don't see a bridge deal here. If Marner gets anywhere close to 11 mill it will be for the full 8 years.

 

[L K]

For all the talk about the Toronto tax, how many Toronto-centric ads does Steven Stamkos have.  Prior to this year, how many did John Tavares have?

As much as the tax comes into play I think for lesser players, Marner is making a killing in endorsements that he just wouldn't be getting if he was playing in Carolina or Florida or even places like Chicago/New York/etc.  That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.  Yes, Marner still has to go out and do work to get that income and not everyone takes advantage of it, but it really should be a factor in negotiations.

 

[Kin]

For all the talk about the Toronto tax, how many Toronto-centric ads does Steven Stamkos have.  Prior to this year, how many did John Tavares have?

As much as the tax comes into play I think for lesser players, Marner is making a killing in endorsements that he just wouldn't be getting if he was playing in Carolina or Florida or even places like Chicago/New York/etc.  That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.  Yes, Marner still has to go out and do work to get that income and not everyone takes advantage of it, but it really should be a factor in negotiations.

Admittedly I'm not the consumer of advertising I used to be but is Marner really in a ton of ad campaigns? Is Tavares?

Forbes' list of the highest paid hockey players really only has Ovechkin, Crosby and McDavid making huge amounts of money in endorsements:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/12/05/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2018-19-connor-mcdavid-on-top-at-19-million/#69849c1b5871

Basically, in order for a significant discount to be based on off-ice earnings Marner would have to establish himself as an MVP level player. Whether or not that's in the cards for him, McDavid's earnings suggest that it would be in the cards wherever Marner would play so I doubt a good agent would take it seriously as a factor in negotiations with the Leafs.

 

[louisstamos]

For all the talk about the Toronto tax, how many Toronto-centric ads does Steven Stamkos have.  Prior to this year, how many did John Tavares have?

As much as the tax comes into play I think for lesser players, Marner is making a killing in endorsements that he just wouldn't be getting if he was playing in Carolina or Florida or even places like Chicago/New York/etc.  That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.  Yes, Marner still has to go out and do work to get that income and not everyone takes advantage of it, but it really should be a factor in negotiations.

Admittedly I'm not the consumer of advertising I used to be but is Marner really in a ton of ad campaigns? Is Tavares?

Forbes' list of the highest paid hockey players really only has Ovechkin, Crosby and McDavid making huge amounts of money in endorsements:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/12/05/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2018-19-connor-mcdavid-on-top-at-19-million/#69849c1b5871

Basically, in order for a significant discount to be based on off-ice earnings Marner would have to establish himself as an MVP level player. Whether or not that's in the cards for him, McDavid's earnings suggest that it would be in the cards wherever Marner would play so I doubt a good agent would take it seriously as a factor in negotiations with the Leafs.

It may not be the same level of money on the other's endorsements, but I imagine Mitch Marner is definitely the leader on the Leafs.  He has Intact Insurance, Mastercard, and Apple (I guess via Auston Matthews).  He also has a deal with True Hockey to sell his signature stick.  He's certainly making a *bit* of coin from the outside, even if it's mostly from local advertising.

 

[Highlander]

It could be adding up to a million plus a year, he wouldn't make anything like that in a non Canadian marketplace.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Admittedly I'm not the consumer of advertising I used to be but is Marner really in a ton of ad campaigns? Is Tavares?

He's been in a ton this season, more than I've seen a Leaf in a long time. He's also been doing a bunch of social media ads as well.