Mitch Marner: what now?

[Bill_Berg]

Admittedly I'm not the consumer of advertising I used to be but is Marner really in a ton of ad campaigns? Is Tavares?

He's been in a ton this season, more than I've seen a Leaf in a long time. He's also been doing a bunch of social media ads as well.

Marner has his face on cans of red bull and life size,almost, cutouts of him in my local grocery store

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Marner has his face on cans of red bull and life size,almost, cutouts of him in my local grocery store

Even just looking at his last few instragram posts he's done ads for: Visa, Azzaro Parfums, Good Food, Intact, Red Bull, Beats by Dre, Call of Duty/PS4, Chevrolet, True Hockey.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

 

[Zee]

That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

Maybe they can sneak that one by Ferris.  "OK guys, here's your $12M contract"*.  They sign.

* - contract stipulates Canadian dollars.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

This coupled with endorsements is why I?d hold firm at 9.5. That?s 12.8 Canadian, probably close to 14 when you factor in endorsements.

That?s life changing money, grandkids life changing money and at a certain point, if he wants to be here he has a decision to make.

I would be 100% okay if we come out of this summer with 4 first round picks and a guy like Panarin as a UFA.

 

[Deebo]

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

Because it doesn't matter, It's still the same amount of money.

 

[Zee]

That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

This coupled with endorsements is why I?d hold firm at 9.5. That?s 12.8 Canadian, probably close to 14 when you factor in endorsements.

That?s life changing money, grandkids life changing money and at a certain point, if he wants to be here he has a decision to make.

I would be 100% okay if we come out of this summer with 4 first round picks and a guy like Panarin as a UFA.

That's not how it works though.  The players association will always look to boost salary for all members so they wouldn't want guys taking less because they can make up the difference in endorsements.  While 9.5 may seem reasonable to you or me, Paul doesn't think so.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I joined in on the jokes at first too, but constantly bringing up Marner's dad is getting about as tiresome as all the stuff about Nylander's dad. Neither was/will be the one driving this bus.

 

[Guilt Trip]

I would be 100% okay if we come out of this summer with 4 first round picks and a guy like Panarin as a UFA.

Another view from Gino Reda who was just on Tsn radio. This is the bases of what he said...
Leafs offer Marner say 10 mill max, or whatever the reasonable number is and not budge. If Marner presents the Leafs with an offer sheet of 11.5 or whatever, the Leafs say we want you back but we can only sign you for 10mill per. They would then tell him that we simply can't match it even though you're absolutely our plan A.  They go on to say if that's what it's going to take, we wish you nothing but the best and suggest you sign it because it is a great offer. He figures the Marner camp will be in shock because they think they have the Leafs over the barrel but the fact is, they don't. Key thing is Marner wants to play here and play with JT. Who wouldn't. If Marner signs it, take the 4 1sts and sign a UFA like Panarin or a D man or whoever. The key here is the Leafs doing their due diligence to have a plan in place that they can go to as soon as the Marner camp decides to move on. That's the coles notes version and I have to say listening to him talk, it's def an option. It may cost you a very good player but you should be able to get a very good player through the free agent way and it would also give you a lot of flexibility moving forward as the guy coming in will in all likelihood cost significantly less then the Marner ask.
Option A...sign Marner for 11.5 mill
Option B...sign Panarin/Skinner(whoever) or a couple for D men for 9.5 or less and get 4 1st round picks

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

This coupled with endorsements is why I?d hold firm at 9.5. That?s 12.8 Canadian, probably close to 14 when you factor in endorsements.

That?s life changing money, grandkids life changing money and at a certain point, if he wants to be here he has a decision to make.

I would be 100% okay if we come out of this summer with 4 first round picks and a guy like Panarin as a UFA.

That's not how it works though.  The players association will always look to boost salary for all members so they wouldn't want guys taking less because they can make up the difference in endorsements.  While 9.5 may seem reasonable to you or me, Paul doesn't think so.

Of course, I'm talking from a team perspective.

I love Marner and want him to get paid handsomely, but it's the team I support.

 

[mr grieves]

Option A...sign Marner for 11.5 mill
Option B...sign Panarin/Skinner(whoever) or a couple for D men for 9.5 or less and get 4 1st round picks

Option B's the better path, clearly. It's a legit option, affording management lots of ways to improve the team, and I hope it's on the table should Marner's contract demands exceed a $9.5m AAV.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This issue with option B that's been brought up before is that it requires the timing of everything to go exactly Toronto's way. Marner needs to get offer-sheeted pretty much right away and the Leafs need to hope a Karlsson or Panarin don't already have agreements from the interview period already lined up. Granted, even if those guys are off the table you can still do a lot of good with $10mil of cap space and four 1st round draft picks.

I really hope it doesn't come to that, but if Marner is dead set on $11-11.5mil, then like others have said it's at least something that needs to be considered.

 

[Zee]

This issue with option B that's been brought up before is that it requires the timing of everything to go exactly Toronto's way. Marner needs to get offer-sheeted pretty much right away and the Leafs need to hope a Karlsson or Panarin don't already have agreements from the interview period already lined up. Granted, even if those guys are off the table you can still do a lot of good with $10mil of cap space and four 1st round draft picks.

I really hope it doesn't come to that, but if Marner is dead set on $11-11.5mil, then like others have said it's at least something that needs to be considered.

Leafs need to give a firm deadline. June 1st or we start making contingency plans including trading you at the draft.

 

[mr grieves]

This issue with option B that's been brought up before is that it requires the timing of everything to go exactly Toronto's way. Marner needs to get offer-sheeted pretty much right away and the Leafs need to hope a Karlsson or Panarin don't already have agreements from the interview period already lined up. Granted, even if those guys are off the table you can still do a lot of good with $10mil of cap space and four 1st round draft picks.

I really hope it doesn't come to that, but if Marner is dead set on $11-11.5mil, then like others have said it's at least something that needs to be considered.

I would think Option B would require the Leafs being willing to set and hold to an internal deadline. If Marner's camp doesn't agree on something around the draft, Dubas would have to start filling up their dance card for the interview period in order to find another place to spend $10m and with the expectation of later trading Marner's rights or declining to match an offer.

 

[Andy007]

This issue with option B that's been brought up before is that it requires the timing of everything to go exactly Toronto's way. Marner needs to get offer-sheeted pretty much right away and the Leafs need to hope a Karlsson or Panarin don't already have agreements from the interview period already lined up. Granted, even if those guys are off the table you can still do a lot of good with $10mil of cap space and four 1st round draft picks.

I really hope it doesn't come to that, but if Marner is dead set on $11-11.5mil, then like others have said it's at least something that needs to be considered.

I wonder, then, in that scenario if the Leafs wouldn't just approach Columbus and try to work out a deal involving Marner and the acquisition of Panarin's rights. They could offer him an 8-year max deal and pry out some other assets (Anderson + a young D or 1st, etc). That way at least they'd have the luxury of getting Panarin on board before trading Marner and Columbus, who'd probably lose Panarin for nothing otherwise, essentially gets Marner for the remaining pieces.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't see the Leafs trading Marner. If he's leaving it's through an offer sheet only. That way they can at least frame it as Marner wanted to leave and he choose money over the team. Imagine the uproar if the Leafs dealt him and he signed a $9.5mil contract his new team?

 

[Andy007]

I don't see the Leafs trading Marner. If he's leaving it's through an offer sheet only. That way they can at least frame it as Marner wanted to leave and he choose money over the team. Imagine the uproar if the Leafs dealt him and he signed a $9.5mil contract his new team?

Oh, absolutely. But if he's not signing for anything less than 11.5 then I'm not sure what other avenue they're going to take.

 

[Kin]

I don't see the Leafs trading Marner. If he's leaving it's through an offer sheet only. That way they can at least frame it as Marner wanted to leave and he choose money over the team. Imagine the uproar if the Leafs dealt him and he signed a $9.5mil contract his new team?

It seems unlikely that he'd do that though if money is such a sticking point here.

Honestly, I don't think they can let him go in anyway other than a trade. Putting on hold the Panarin/Karlsson fantasy for a moment, you'd be losing an incredibly valuable part of the team for not a single defined asset and pieces that probably wouldn't help the club for 5-6 years. Heading into a year where it's supposedly make or break to advance in the playoffs I just don't see a chance where that's a net positive.

 

[Guilt Trip]

This issue with option B that's been brought up before is that it requires the timing of everything to go exactly Toronto's way. Marner needs to get offer-sheeted pretty much right away and the Leafs need to hope a Karlsson or Panarin don't already have agreements from the interview period already lined up. Granted, even if those guys are off the table you can still do a lot of good with $10mil of cap space and four 1st round draft picks.

I really hope it doesn't come to that, but if Marner is dead set on $11-11.5mil, then like others have said it's at least something that needs to be considered.

Leafs need to give a firm deadline. June 1st or we start making contingency plans including trading you at the draft.

That's what I think is the best route. Whenever that internal deadline will be. Dubas can't afford to wait like he did with Nylander. Not that we know for sure but it appears that they had no backup plan with him. Leafs need to be totally prepared for any scenario and that would include trading him if need be.

 

[Kin]

It's not really a firm deadline if it's "If you don't sign by a particular date, we start considering our options". The Leafs should always be considering their options and an artificial deadline only hurts the Leafs' ability to come to a mutually beneficially agreement here.

For all the comparing the situation to Nylander, the Nylander deal ended up being fine.