Mitch Marner: what now?

[Average Joes]

Kane was also more interesting than Marner due to those criminal charges he had with the cab driver.

I actually think there are some pretty interesting parallels between Kane and Marner. Kane was negotiating his extension the year after his team had signed a big deal free agent and negotiating it alongside the team's other top young player, a C who was arguably more valuable and who, while not producing as many points, had scored significantly more goals in fewer games.

Thing is, Kane's deal had a higher AAV than Hossa's(admittedly due to those dodgy backdiving deals) and was exactly equal to the deal they gave Toews. So from strictly an ego stroking point of view, as opposed to just dollars and cents or cap %, Chicago's offer maybe had more appeal.

I do think that players may be more influenced or concerned by what the players in the same dressing room are getting paid rather than the player 500 miles away.  Similar to how I would feel with someone at work compared to someone in the same position at a different business.  Which makes the Mathews contract problematic in negotiations even when it probably is not a good comparable for Marner.  The Kane/Toews is a great example you brought up. 

 

[Joe S.]

For me, the annoying part is the trend of kids demanding an ever-increasing portion of the cap before free agency. This wasn't really a thing even a few years ago.

Mitch is well within his rights to demand whatever he wants but I wouldn't be surprised if GMs start to push back a little more forcefully, even if that means a good player or two have to sit out a year. The numbers simply don't add up in a salary cap system, especially when kids not only want to get paid like superstar free agents but also want short-term deals.

I hope Dubas has a reasonable final offer on the table (with term) well in advance of the season and then doesn't budge.

But Marner IS a superstar free agent; why wouldn't he get paid as one?

He scored 94 points last season. Let's assume he regresses to be an 80 point player. Why should he get any less than other 80 point players because he's young?

To the superstar point, I guess I don't see Marner being on the level of the players cited by Nik. In what universe are Marner's comparables Crosby, Malkin or McDavid, rather than (say) Sebastian Aho?

To your second point, at least historically, there has been a material difference between the contracts of RFAs and UFAs. The former are not allowed to openly tender their services on the NHL free agent market, so they don't get paid as much as they otherwise could if they were free agents. Again, Marner can demand whatever he wants, but I don't think Dubas should be feel obligated to pay him more because he and other RFAs have decided that they want more.

As an aside, is 11 million dollars on a short-term deal really the going rate for 80 point wingers (with limited physical and defensive upside) these days?

For me, Patrick Kane is a comparable to Marner, in Kane's 2nd contract he took 11.09% of the cap which in Marner's case would be $9.03M against today's cap.  That was also for 5 years.

Thats a nice comparable. I wonder if Dubas has tried that one out in negotiations yet.

Paul said there is only one acceptable comparable  and no others will be entertained.

Is this a real quote?

 

[Bates]

For me, the annoying part is the trend of kids demanding an ever-increasing portion of the cap before free agency. This wasn't really a thing even a few years ago.

Mitch is well within his rights to demand whatever he wants but I wouldn't be surprised if GMs start to push back a little more forcefully, even if that means a good player or two have to sit out a year. The numbers simply don't add up in a salary cap system, especially when kids not only want to get paid like superstar free agents but also want short-term deals.

I hope Dubas has a reasonable final offer on the table (with term) well in advance of the season and then doesn't budge.

But Marner IS a superstar free agent; why wouldn't he get paid as one?

He scored 94 points last season. Let's assume he regresses to be an 80 point player. Why should he get any less than other 80 point players because he's young?

To the superstar point, I guess I don't see Marner being on the level of the players cited by Nik. In what universe are Marner's comparables Crosby, Malkin or McDavid, rather than (say) Sebastian Aho?

To your second point, at least historically, there has been a material difference between the contracts of RFAs and UFAs. The former are not allowed to openly tender their services on the NHL free agent market, so they don't get paid as much as they otherwise could if they were free agents. Again, Marner can demand whatever he wants, but I don't think Dubas should be feel obligated to pay him more because he and other RFAs have decided that they want more.

As an aside, is 11 million dollars on a short-term deal really the going rate for 80 point wingers (with limited physical and defensive upside) these days?

For me, Patrick Kane is a comparable to Marner, in Kane's 2nd contract he took 11.09% of the cap which in Marner's case would be $9.03M against today's cap.  That was also for 5 years.

Thats a nice comparable. I wonder if Dubas has tried that one out in negotiations yet.

Paul said there is only one acceptable comparable  and no others will be entertained.

Is this a real quote?

No, sarcasm.

 

[Zee]

For me, the annoying part is the trend of kids demanding an ever-increasing portion of the cap before free agency. This wasn't really a thing even a few years ago.

Mitch is well within his rights to demand whatever he wants but I wouldn't be surprised if GMs start to push back a little more forcefully, even if that means a good player or two have to sit out a year. The numbers simply don't add up in a salary cap system, especially when kids not only want to get paid like superstar free agents but also want short-term deals.

I hope Dubas has a reasonable final offer on the table (with term) well in advance of the season and then doesn't budge.

But Marner IS a superstar free agent; why wouldn't he get paid as one?

He scored 94 points last season. Let's assume he regresses to be an 80 point player. Why should he get any less than other 80 point players because he's young?

To the superstar point, I guess I don't see Marner being on the level of the players cited by Nik. In what universe are Marner's comparables Crosby, Malkin or McDavid, rather than (say) Sebastian Aho?

To your second point, at least historically, there has been a material difference between the contracts of RFAs and UFAs. The former are not allowed to openly tender their services on the NHL free agent market, so they don't get paid as much as they otherwise could if they were free agents. Again, Marner can demand whatever he wants, but I don't think Dubas should be feel obligated to pay him more because he and other RFAs have decided that they want more.

As an aside, is 11 million dollars on a short-term deal really the going rate for 80 point wingers (with limited physical and defensive upside) these days?

For me, Patrick Kane is a comparable to Marner, in Kane's 2nd contract he took 11.09% of the cap which in Marner's case would be $9.03M against today's cap.  That was also for 5 years.

Thats a nice comparable. I wonder if Dubas has tried that one out in negotiations yet.

Paul said there is only one acceptable comparable  and no others will be entertained.

Is this a real quote?

Other quotes attributed to Paul Marner but not verified:

"For me, ranking the greatest players of all time you have Gretzky, Orr, Lemieux, Howe and Marner, not necessarily in that order *wink* "

 

[Kin]

The thing to keep in mind is that the difference between Kane and Marner, negotiating after your 2nd year vs. your 3rd, does have some real potential drawbacks for players. Look at the Mackinnon deal, or what will probably happen with Laine, to see the affect it would have on a deal if a guy doesn't have a big third season.

Marner essentially took a bet that his third year would see a big year for him and it paid off.

 

[Frank E]

The thing to keep in mind is that the difference between Kane and Marner, negotiating after your 2nd year vs. your 3rd, does have some real potential drawbacks for players. Look at the Mackinnon deal, or what will probably happen with Laine, to see the affect it would have on a deal if a guy doesn't have a big third season.

Marner essentially took a bet that his third year would see a big year for him and it paid off.

Not a bad bet, given he was going to play with either Matthews or Tavares. 

 

[Kin]

Not a bad bet, given he was going to play with either Matthews or Tavares.

No, but an injury to Tavares would have drastically altered things for him. And beyond that Laine played on a team surrounded by good offensive players and it didn't stop him from having a down year.

 

[slapshot]

Laine, so far, seems like a pretty one dimensional player, though not a bad dimension. Still, other than PP, he does not look all that impressive stats wise.

 

[Zee]

Renaud Lavoie on SN590: Marner will likely miss training camp but my understanding is that Marner will be a Maple Leaf for a long time.

I wonder if they have some sort of a gentleman's agreement on a big number and long term but because of the cap/LTIR situation they can't officially sign or place him on the cap until Oct 1?  Who knows, sounds promising though

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/account4hockey/status/1154019373574762496

Why does Renaud Lavoie (who soft-broke the Clarkson move) have insight into the Marner situation?

 

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/account4hockey/status/1154019373574762496

Why does Renaud Lavoie (who soft-broke the Clarkson move) have insight into the Marner situation?

Talking to the agent perhaps?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Lavoie posted the Clarkson news directly on his twitter account because he knew it was legit... he's just shooting from the hip about Marner on the radio.

*taps nose*

 

[Zee]

Lavoie posted the Clarkson news directly on his twitter account because he knew it was legit... he's just shooting from the hip about Marner on the radio.

*taps nose*

I choose to be Positive Petey today, you can be Negative Nino if you want.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Lavoie posted the Clarkson news directly on his twitter account because he knew it was legit... he's just shooting from the hip about Marner on the radio.

*taps nose*

I choose to be Positive Petey today, you can be Negative Nino if you want.

I'm not really sure how my comment could be seen as positive or negative. It just says don't take the words of someone rambling on the radio as gospel.

 

[Zee]

Lavoie posted the Clarkson news directly on his twitter account because he knew it was legit... he's just shooting from the hip about Marner on the radio.

*taps nose*

I choose to be Positive Petey today, you can be Negative Nino if you want.

I'm not really sure how my comment could be seen as positive or negative. It just says don't take the words of someone rambling on the radio as gospel.

Ok Nino!

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Ok Nino!

 

[herman]

I think it's just a reading of the Clarkson trade cap ramifications. The Leafs have opened up a 10.5M block of space that is used to best effect on Opening Day. Earlier is doable but finicky.

 

[Bates]

https://twitter.com/account4hockey/status/1154019373574762496

Why does Renaud Lavoie (who soft-broke the Clarkson move) have insight into the Marner situation?

Dreger is on holidays. 

 

[Guilt Trip]

https://twitter.com/account4hockey/status/1154019373574762496

Why does Renaud Lavoie (who soft-broke the Clarkson move) have insight into the Marner situation?

Dreger is on holidays. 

I lol when reading some of Dreger's tweets and the responses with almost everyone calling him Paul!

 

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/account4hockey/status/1154019373574762496

Why does Renaud Lavoie (who soft-broke the Clarkson move) have insight into the Marner situation?

Dreger is on holidays. 

I lol when reading some of Dreger's tweets and the responses with almost everyone calling him Paul!

They were getting pretty creative too.  People started posting pictures of famous "Pauls" like Paul McCartney etc