Mitch Marner: what now?

[Kin]

I mean I don't think it's happening at all, but since it's mid-August why not talk about it. Something around Marner for Boeser+ could potentially make some sense if the Leafs decided they weren't paying Marner what he wanted but the Canucks would.

Boeser + Quinn Hughes for Marner, you saying no?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I mean I don't think it's happening at all, but since it's mid-August why not talk about it. Something around Marner for Boeser+ could potentially make some sense if the Leafs decided they weren't paying Marner what he wanted but the Canucks would.

Boeser + Quinn Hughes for Marner, you saying no?

I take that and run.

 

[herman]

I think I?ll run down a list of packages I?d conceive of trading Marner for from the teams that have the space and resources.

 

[Frank E]

I think I?ll run down a list of packages I?d conceive of trading Marner for from the teams that have the space and resources.

This is an excellent use of your time...I can't wait to tear it apart.

 

[Zee]

Anyone NOT offering Marner a contract at this point?

Yes, the Leafs

 

[Phileas Fogg]

At the risk of a far more boring take, I'd wager it's far more likely that the leafs and marner are pretty much aligned on a framework, and see no point in rushing to close off the details until more RFAs finalize or we get closer to the start of the season.

 

[ZBBM]

Brainstorm: Dubas should preemptively offer sheet him at 12.5 x 5.

It's a lot of money but we get 4 first round picks. That's how it works, right?

 

[Bender]

At the risk of a far more boring take, I'd wager it's far more likely that the leafs and marner are pretty much aligned on a framework, and see no point in rushing to close off the details until more RFAs finalize or we get closer to the start of the season.

We're obviously stuck in a holding pattern. Everyone wants to ignore Aho and have someone else who knocks it out of the park dollar wise to set the market.

 

[Frank E]

At the risk of a far more boring take, I'd wager it's far more likely that the leafs and marner are pretty much aligned on a framework, and see no point in rushing to close off the details until more RFAs finalize or we get closer to the start of the season.

We're obviously stuck in a holding pattern. Everyone wants to ignore Aho and have someone else who knocks it out of the park dollar wise to set the market.

Withholding services is the only leverage the RFA players have, other than all those offer sheets, and this leverage is zero during the off-season.  So I figure that this runs into camp, at the least, if Marner wants to use some of this leverage.  Dubas may not want to wear this like he did with Nylander.

 

[herman]

Kind of hoping for Zach Hyman's brother to dish on the contract situation again.

 

[Frank E]

Aren't TSN and Sportsnet owners MLSE owners?  I'd argue it's beneficial to their media properties to have this stuff continue on through the summer even just for content.

 

[Kin]

I get that the thinking on Marner being vulnerable to an offer sheet is that the Leafs are nearer the cap than other teams with big RFA's but it seems to me like that misses the fact that the reason the Leafs are there is because they've already signed their big RFA's and don't have another contract like that on the horizon.

Conversely, a team like Columbus has a lot of cap space but also has to sign Werenski, Josh Anderson and PL Dubois in the two years. Tampa has to sign Point and Sergechev. Even teams like the Avs and Flyers have deals a few years out that are probably going to be big ones.

So when you hear a lot of Marner offer sheet chatter but nothing regarding the rest of these guys it seems pretty likely that it's off-season click trolling more than anything.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm surprised that there hasn't been more chatter about Laine potentially signing an offer sheet. That's the one RFA that I think makes the most sense there.

 

[herman]

Tkachuk is reportedly not even talking to the Flames and will likely miss the season opener.

 

[Kin]

Incidentally, this is why they should do away with RFA compensation in the next CBA. The offer sheet market is dead so as Frank pointed out there's basically nothing pushing RFA's and their teams together besides the threat of missing parts of the season. That's not good for anyone.

Do away with compensation but let teams match offers and top tier young players get paid market value but teams can retain them at that price if they want. I genuinely don't see who the current RFA market helps.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Incidentally, this is why they should do away with RFA compensation in the next CBA. The offer sheet market is dead so as Frank pointed out there's basically nothing pushing RFA's and their teams together besides the threat of missing parts of the season. That's not good for anyone.

Do away with compensation but let teams match offers and top tier young players get paid market value but teams can retain them at that price if they want. I genuinely don't see who the current RFA market helps.

Do you think that would really change much? To me it feels like the offer sheet market is dead mostly because GMs don't want to step on each others toes. It's just a dumb culture thing that I don't see really changing. I can't imagine it's the fear of the compensation that's preventing guys like Laine and Tkachuk from getting offer sheets under $8.5mil (the 1st, 2nd, 3rd tier).

 

[Kin]

Do you think that would really change much? To me it feels like the offer sheet market is dead mostly because GMs don't want to step on each others toes. It's just a dumb culture thing that I don't see really changing. I can't imagine it's the fear of the compensation that's preventing guys like Laine and Tkachuk from getting offer sheets under $8.5mil (the 1st, 2nd, 3rd tier).

I really do.

Take Marner for example. A lot of people here have said that Marner may not be as valuable as 4 1st round picks and his cap space. I don't think that's true but that's something that every GM in the league has to consider. Remove those 4 1sts from the equation and it becomes a lot more difficult for a GM of a bad team with a lot of cap space to explain to his fans/owner why they're not out there seriously pursuing top tier free agents. If signing Marner has no such asset swap I think he'd be seen more as a regular free agent and none of us see signing UFA's as stepping on other team's toes.

Then, once your top tier RFA guys sign then players like Tkachuk and Laine have a market and they're more likely to sign too. Or to go out and get the deal they want from someone else.

 

[Bates]

Arbitration might help end these stalemates if it was available for all RFA's. But then again Marner might not like the comparables in the real world??? Hint: it might not end up being Matthews. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I really do.

Take Marner for example. A lot of people here have said that Marner may not be as valuable as 4 1st round picks and his cap space. I don't think that's true but that's something that every GM in the league has to consider. Remove those 4 1sts from the equation and it becomes a lot more difficult for a GM of a bad team with a lot of cap space to explain to his fans/owner why they're not out there seriously pursuing top tier free agents. If signing Marner has no such asset swap I think he'd be seen more as a regular free agent and none of us see signing UFA's as stepping on other team's toes.

Then, once your top tier RFA guys sign then players like Tkachuk and Laine have a market and they're more likely to sign too. Or to go out and get the deal they want from someone else.

Point taken. I definitely think that the only RFA compensation tier that's overkill is the very top one. I don't see them getting rid of compensation entirely but if the top tier is brought more into line and an offer sheet or two is accepted in that range then it could have a trickle effect.

 

[Kin]

Point taken. I definitely think that the only RFA compensation tier that's overkill is the very top one. I don't see them getting rid of compensation entirely but if the top tier is brought more into line and an offer sheet or two is accepted in that range then it could have a trickle effect.

You're probably right, NHL owners being the sort of modern day "Capitalist" who want rewards but are terrified of any sort of risk or infringement of their power, but I do think that maybe some smarter owners would see that if the current trend holds and the dead RFA market doesn't actually mean they're saving any money on top tier young players then the compensation doesn't actually do anything for them other than lead to these long negotiations/holdouts.