Mitch Marner: what now?

[Bender]

If they end up doing 3 years at a high number, that's just another massive headache in three years: giant third year qualifying offer, arbitration 4th and then pure UFA. In 3, 5, 7 years I really don't see the Marner camp line changing (we're the same as Auston) and it always being a headache. They might draw their line and risk losing Marner for a year, but Dubas is on record saying he cares about asset management and maximizing the window. He'll overpay just to get that done.

Yeah but plenty of people have said you can't win with such a top heavy forward group and the team requires more balance. If Marner needs be traded to have that happen then so be it.

 

[mr grieves]

The idea that Marner was ever going to sign for less than 10 was never tenable.  Now it looks like 11 is the floor, except for all that cap implication stuff that I don't understand.

But, at this point, how?

I just opened CapFriendly, put Horton and Clarkson on LTIR, sent every player after Hyman's 2.25m to the minors if they made over Kenny Agostino's $737k (goodbye Mikheyev, Moore, Shore, Petan), got the defense so no one after Dermott is making over $700k (welcome to the Marlies, Ben Harpur), swapped out Hutchinson for Kaskisuo to save $25k, went with only 2 scratches... and only then can I find over $10M in cap space (10.625). Have 3 extra players and it's, at most, about $9.925m.

If signing him for under 10 "was never tenable," they haven't been able to afford Mitch Marner for most of the summer.

And if 11 is the floor, they don't have much choice but to move him.

Or to ruin his career.

 

[L K]

I don?t think we can ever really trust all the media commentary as Dubas has been pretty good about not talking big numbers in the media but I have to say that I?m really struggling with backing Marner here.  I was in the defend Nylander train last year and I do find myself closer to Nik?s views on players vs owners discussions but for the good of the Leafs I think we might be at a point where this scenario necessitates a move.  Our defense is not good enough to win a cup and it doesn?t get easier next year without Barrie.  It doesn?t get easier when Rielly is due for a new contract either.  Unless the next CBA nerfs the cap the Leafs might be better in the long run making a move.  The short term is not good but eesh I?m really not liking how having good players has crunched the team this quick

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://theleafsnation.com/2019/09/11/mitch-marners-primary-assist-magic/

Very good article here looking at Marner's past season. It gives a very detailed explanation for why Marner's primary assists numbers will likely come down this season.

This is another reason why a 3 year deal makes more sense, especially in light of all this "Marner thinks he's as good as Matthews" stuff. If Marner thinks that he's as good as Matthews, I need more than 1 season to believe it.

 

[herman]

https://theleafsnation.com/2019/09/11/mitch-marners-primary-assist-magic/

Very good article here looking at Marner's past season. This is another reason why a 3 year deal makes more sense, especially in light of all this "Marner thinks he's as good as Matthews" stuff. You can make a very good argument that Marner's past season won't be repeated next season. If Marner thinks that he's as good as Matthews, I need more than 1 season to believe it.

I posted this previously as well:
https://twitter.com/TheFlopFish/status/1147254161819369477

 

[Bullfrog]

I still see a pre-Opening Night signing at whatever is the biggest pie left on the table because
a) he wants to play here
b) his best chance at living up to those numbers is playing alongside Tavares or Matthews
c) no one else is going to bother dealing with him
d) the Leafs ability to sign him diminishes as the season starts, so really the max available to him is 10.55M

If it passes that day, you'll know it was never about the money

This is what I think happens. It's all just negotiating bluster. He might sit out some of training camp and maybe even go to Switzerland, but I think he's here on game day one.

 

[Bullfrog]

I don?t think we can ever really trust all the media commentary as Dubas has been pretty good about not talking big numbers in the media but I have to say that I?m really struggling with backing Marner here.  I was in the defend Nylander train last year and I do find myself closer to Nik?s views on players vs owners discussions but for the good of the Leafs I think we might be at a point where this scenario necessitates a move.  Our defense is not good enough to win a cup and it doesn?t get easier next year without Barrie.  It doesn?t get easier when Rielly is due for a new contract either.  Unless the next CBA nerfs the cap the Leafs might be better in the long run making a move.  The short term is not good but eesh I?m really not liking how having good players has crunched the team this quick

My view is very similar to what you've stated here. The major difference between my view on Marner and Nylander is that I just don't think Marner is good enough. I'm not saying he's not an elite player - he is - but he's nowhere near Matthews value in my books. I think Sebastian Aho's contract is the perfect contract for Marner, but I'm positive he'll get more.

 

[herman]

My view is very similar to what you've stated here. The major difference between my view on Marner and Nylander is that I just don't think Marner is good enough. I'm not saying he's not an elite player - he is - but he's nowhere near Matthews value in my books. I think Sebastian Aho's contract is the perfect contract for Marner, but I'm positive he'll get more.

Um excuse me: 94 pts vs 73 pts. 17 playoff pts vs 13. Clark vs Sundin.
The only reason he is nowhere near Matthews' value is because he has exceeded it! - Paul Marner

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/DimFilipovic/status/1171807532500652033

 

[moon111]

https://theleafsnation.com/2019/09/11/mitch-marners-primary-assist-magic/

Very good article here looking at Marner's past season. It gives a very detailed explanation for why Marner's primary assists numbers will likely come down this season.

This is another reason why a 3 year deal makes more sense, especially in light of all this "Marner thinks he's as good as Matthews" stuff. If Marner thinks that he's as good as Matthews, I need more than 1 season to believe it.

You'd have to think NHL teams are also going to start focusing on a line's tenancies as well.  Marner's goal-scoring isn't much better then a 2015-16 Komarov.  Pretty sure Boston figured it out, as Marner's assist rate wasn't much better then Mat Martin's in the playoffs.  A Marner line is predictable. 

 

[Bender]

I still see a pre-Opening Night signing at whatever is the biggest pie left on the table because
a) he wants to play here
b) his best chance at living up to those numbers is playing alongside Tavares or Matthews
c) no one else is going to bother dealing with him
d) the Leafs ability to sign him diminishes as the season starts, so really the max available to him is 10.55M

If it passes that day, you'll know it was never about the money

This is what I think happens. It's all just negotiating bluster. He might sit out some of training camp and maybe even go to Switzerland, but I think he's here on game day one.

He burns a year of guaranteed money and all leverage or he gets traded to a team that can handle his cap hit. Both bad outcomes. He's going to get burned unless he takes, what is imo, an already extremely lucrative offer. But you know, comparables don't exist so he's worth whatever he thinks he's worth, which is Ted Danson money.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/ThePointHockey/status/1171746934425620481

 

[herman]

OOPS WRONG THREAD.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don?t think we can ever really trust all the media commentary as Dubas has been pretty good about not talking big numbers in the media but I have to say that I?m really struggling with backing Marner here.

McKenzie, Mirtle, and Friedman have all said that Marner's turned down $11mil x 7. That's good enough for me to accept it as true.

Also it makes sense for Dubas to leak this information out since he knows what (most of) the fan reaction will be.

 

[Bill_Berg]

OOPS WRONG THREAD.

Slick.

 

[KW Sluggo]

What now?

Trade his ass.

$11M a year for 7 or 8 years is not enough for a 22 year old RFA (what does "Restricted" mean any more?). At $11M it is obvious that cap space is not the issue.

If Marner believes his market value is greater than that, he should be allowed to seek it out wherever it may prove to be available.

And NO, I don't care how talented he is. His talent level is a given. 

This should have been done last year with ME-lander. It was not and now it has contributed to this situation. It is becoming a trend.

Flame away if you must but this is my opinion and I am unanimous in that.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't get how you can even compare the Nylander and Marner situations. From what we can understand, Dubas pushed and pushed Nylander to take a below market deal for months and finally only offered him a contract where he was maybe slightly overpaid like an hour before the RFA deadline.

With Marner Dubas offered to make him the highest paid winger in the NHL in June after finishing 6th among wingers in points (8th if you want to go by P/GP) this past season. In June!

 

[dappleganger]

What now?

Trade his ass.

$11M a year for 7 or 8 years is not enough for a 22 year old RFA (what does "Restricted" mean any more?). At $11M it is obvious that cap space is not the issue.

If Marner believes his market value is greater than that, he should be allowed to seek it out wherever it may prove to be available.

And NO, I don't care how talented he is. His talent level is a given. 

This should have been done last year with ME-lander. It was not and now it has contributed to this situation. It is becoming a trend.

Flame away if you must but this is my opinion and I am unanimous in that.

Make room in the boat. While I'm not at all "mad" at Marner I'm fine with trading him if that offer is unsatisfactory to his camp. I firmly believe that the assets Marner returns plus the additional cap space to address the D will make the Leafs better than Marner at $11m.

 

[ZBBM]

The idea that Marner was ever going to sign for less than 10 was never tenable.  Now it looks like 11 is the floor, except for all that cap implication stuff that I don't understand.

I'm probably going to get this wrong somewhere in the details (Deebo, help!)

Similar to what Nylander went through last year, signing after the season starts for an RFA means the annual value of the cap hit for the first year is pro-rated up to match the annual value for the remaining years, e.g. 6.9 AAV is prorated to 10+M annually for the 2 months missed; total actual cap hit from the daily aggregate totaled for that first season was still 6.9M.

This year, it is different because of LTIR. The Leafs will be using LTIR, and thus there is no cap space, and therefore, their cap calculations aren't considered done with daily cap hit aggregation; they're only looking at the annual values (i.e. the easy way).

If Marner wants a 10.5M AAV for the duration of his next contract but tries to take the Leafs into Dec 1 the way Nylander did, then the 10.5 has to be pro-rated to 13M (or whatever, I'm not doing the math). Then when you look at the annual cap for the Leafs, even with the 10.55M LTIR space, they're not going to be able to fit it unless they shed like 3M in cap off the roster. If Marner wants to push to December, the amount the Leafs can sign him for goes down to about 7M, which is counter productive in every possible way. Basically every day beyond Oct 2 the Marner camp pushes this, the Leafs can only sign him for less and less.

Thanks for taking the trouble to explain this, herman.  I now understand that there is a lot of incentive for Marner to sign with the Leafs before the season starts.    Understanding all the math that leads to *that* understanding would, in my case, require my hiring Pridham as a Replacement Me.

It boggles my mind that the NHL & NHLPA have created a system so byzantine that it takes an armor of green-visored accounting freaks to understand it, and that that system is now talked about at least as much as the games themselves.  Brilliant stuff.

 

[ZBBM]

What now?

Trade his ass.

$11M a year for 7 or 8 years is not enough for a 22 year old RFA (what does "Restricted" mean any more?). At $11M it is obvious that cap space is not the issue.

If Marner believes his market value is greater than that, he should be allowed to seek it out wherever it may prove to be available.

And NO, I don't care how talented he is. His talent level is a given. 

This should have been done last year with ME-lander. It was not and now it has contributed to this situation. It is becoming a trend.

Flame away if you must but this is my opinion and I am unanimous in that.

Nothing substantive to add but just wanted to say thanks for that last line, I'm going to steal it.