Mitch Marner: what now?

[pmrules]

The idea that Marner was ever going to sign for less than 10 was never tenable.  Now it looks like 11 is the floor, except for all that cap implication stuff that I don't understand.

I'm probably going to get this wrong somewhere in the details (Deebo, help!)

Similar to what Nylander went through last year, signing after the season starts for an RFA means the annual value of the cap hit for the first year is pro-rated up to match the annual value for the remaining years, e.g. 6.9 AAV is prorated to 10+M annually for the 2 months missed; total actual cap hit from the daily aggregate totaled for that first season was still 6.9M.

This year, it is different because of LTIR. The Leafs will be using LTIR, and thus there is no cap space, and therefore, their cap calculations aren't considered done with daily cap hit aggregation; they're only looking at the annual values (i.e. the easy way).

If Marner wants a 10.5M AAV for the duration of his next contract but tries to take the Leafs into Dec 1 the way Nylander did, then the 10.5 has to be pro-rated to 13M (or whatever, I'm not doing the math). Then when you look at the annual cap for the Leafs, even with the 10.55M LTIR space, they're not going to be able to fit it unless they shed like 3M in cap off the roster. If Marner wants to push to December, the amount the Leafs can sign him for goes down to about 7M, which is counter productive in every possible way. Basically every day beyond Oct 2 the Marner camp pushes this, the Leafs can only sign him for less and less.

Thanks for taking the trouble to explain this, herman.  I now understand that there is a lot of incentive for Marner to sign with the Leafs before the season starts.   

If this is correct, then this should get resolved before game 1.  Neither side actually can afford it to go beyond that.

 

[pmrules]

I don?t think we can ever really trust all the media commentary as Dubas has been pretty good about not talking big numbers in the media but I have to say that I?m really struggling with backing Marner here.

McKenzie, Mirtle, and Friedman have all said that Marner's turned down $11mil x 7. That's good enough for me to accept it as true.

Also it makes sense for Dubas to leak this information out since he knows what (most of) the fan reaction will be.

If this is true and he has turned down "Tavares money", that would be extremely disappointing.  If he believes he is worth Matthews Money or better, than all the power to him...it just sucks as a Leaf fan.

Does anyone have any credible sources of negotiations between the Leafs and Marner from last summer? 

 

[Frank E]

I still can't believe he turned down $11m X 7...no way.

 

[Highlander]

I still can't believe he turned down $11m X 7...no way.

so what am I talking about?

 

[L K]

The idea that Marner was ever going to sign for less than 10 was never tenable.  Now it looks like 11 is the floor, except for all that cap implication stuff that I don't understand.

I'm probably going to get this wrong somewhere in the details (Deebo, help!)

Similar to what Nylander went through last year, signing after the season starts for an RFA means the annual value of the cap hit for the first year is pro-rated up to match the annual value for the remaining years, e.g. 6.9 AAV is prorated to 10+M annually for the 2 months missed; total actual cap hit from the daily aggregate totaled for that first season was still 6.9M.

This year, it is different because of LTIR. The Leafs will be using LTIR, and thus there is no cap space, and therefore, their cap calculations aren't considered done with daily cap hit aggregation; they're only looking at the annual values (i.e. the easy way).

If Marner wants a 10.5M AAV for the duration of his next contract but tries to take the Leafs into Dec 1 the way Nylander did, then the 10.5 has to be pro-rated to 13M (or whatever, I'm not doing the math). Then when you look at the annual cap for the Leafs, even with the 10.55M LTIR space, they're not going to be able to fit it unless they shed like 3M in cap off the roster. If Marner wants to push to December, the amount the Leafs can sign him for goes down to about 7M, which is counter productive in every possible way. Basically every day beyond Oct 2 the Marner camp pushes this, the Leafs can only sign him for less and less.

Thanks for taking the trouble to explain this, herman.  I now understand that there is a lot of incentive for Marner to sign with the Leafs before the season starts.    Understanding all the math that leads to *that* understanding would, in my case, require my hiring Pridham as a Replacement Me.

It boggles my mind that the NHL & NHLPA have created a system so byzantine that it takes an armor of green-visored accounting freaks to understand it, and that that system is now talked about at least as much as the games themselves.  Brilliant stuff.

With the Ottawa/Arizona calibre teams using fake contracts to reach the cap floor it really is baffling why a luxury tax system wasn't explored more that would have put actual dollars into the coffers of the have not teams so they could put players who could actually contribute to their lineup in those spots.

 

[L K]

The idea that Marner was ever going to sign for less than 10 was never tenable.  Now it looks like 11 is the floor, except for all that cap implication stuff that I don't understand.

I'm probably going to get this wrong somewhere in the details (Deebo, help!)

Similar to what Nylander went through last year, signing after the season starts for an RFA means the annual value of the cap hit for the first year is pro-rated up to match the annual value for the remaining years, e.g. 6.9 AAV is prorated to 10+M annually for the 2 months missed; total actual cap hit from the daily aggregate totaled for that first season was still 6.9M.

This year, it is different because of LTIR. The Leafs will be using LTIR, and thus there is no cap space, and therefore, their cap calculations aren't considered done with daily cap hit aggregation; they're only looking at the annual values (i.e. the easy way).

If Marner wants a 10.5M AAV for the duration of his next contract but tries to take the Leafs into Dec 1 the way Nylander did, then the 10.5 has to be pro-rated to 13M (or whatever, I'm not doing the math). Then when you look at the annual cap for the Leafs, even with the 10.55M LTIR space, they're not going to be able to fit it unless they shed like 3M in cap off the roster. If Marner wants to push to December, the amount the Leafs can sign him for goes down to about 7M, which is counter productive in every possible way. Basically every day beyond Oct 2 the Marner camp pushes this, the Leafs can only sign him for less and less.

Thanks for taking the trouble to explain this, herman.  I now understand that there is a lot of incentive for Marner to sign with the Leafs before the season starts.   

If this is correct, then this should get resolved before game 1.  Neither side actually can afford it to go beyond that.

Neither side can afford it if Marner/Dubas view the only solution as staying in Toronto.  If Marner's camp says we won't consider anything unless it is >11M eventually there is a point where trades to a team that can afford that have to come into play.  I can't think of a trade scenario where we get 4 1st round picks in a trade for him so I doubt we see an offer sheet ever truly come into play but a team taking on 11+ million and giving up the equivalent of 2 1sts + a prospect(s) deal absolutely could be viable. 

 

[mr grieves]

So, with the leaked contract, Dubas has started playing the Ferris/Paul game.

Six (?) months late, or so.

Using exactly as much leverage as the RFA player has is not, imo, really wielding all of the power that the CBA gives managers over their RFAs. But it's a start, I guess.

[tweet]1171124995478573056[/tweet]

 

[Coco-puffs]

I still can't believe he turned down $11m X 7...no way.

I can.  If he's steadfast that he wants a shorter term I can see why he'd turn that down. 

 

[Bender]

I still can't believe he turned down $11m X 7...no way.

I can.  If he's steadfast that he wants a shorter term I can see why he'd turn that down.

I can see why he would want everything and compromise nothing in a negotiation, sure. But I don't agree with it at all. I was such a Marner fan for the last three years and now I'm ready to let him walk or get traded.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1171828751673516032

I support Justin Holl

 

[Highlander]

The idea that Marner was ever going to sign for less than 10 was never tenable.  Now it looks like 11 is the floor, except for all that cap implication stuff that I don't understand.

I'm probably going to get this wrong somewhere in the details (Deebo, help!)

Similar to what Nylander went through last year, signing after the season starts for an RFA means the annual value of the cap hit for the first year is pro-rated up to match the annual value for the remaining years, e.g. 6.9 AAV is prorated to 10+M annually for the 2 months missed; total actual cap hit from the daily aggregate totaled for that first season was still 6.9M.

This year, it is different because of LTIR. The Leafs will be using LTIR, and thus there is no cap space, and therefore, their cap calculations aren't considered done with daily cap hit aggregation; they're only looking at the annual values (i.e. the easy way).

If Marner wants a 10.5M AAV for the duration of his next contract but tries to take the Leafs into Dec 1 the way Nylander did, then the 10.5 has to be pro-rated to 13M (or whatever, I'm not doing the math). Then when you look at the annual cap for the Leafs, even with the 10.55M LTIR space, they're not going to be able to fit it unless they shed like 3M in cap off the roster. If Marner wants to push to December, the amount the Leafs can sign him for goes down to about 7M, which is counter productive in every possible way. Basically every day beyond Oct 2 the Marner camp pushes this, the Leafs can only sign him for less and less.

Thanks for taking the trouble to explain this, herman.  I now understand that there is a lot of incentive for Marner to sign with the Leafs before the season starts.    Understanding all the math that leads to *that* understanding would, in my case, require my hiring Pridham as a Replacement Me.

It boggles my mind that the NHL & NHLPA have created a system so byzantine that it takes an armor of green-visored accounting freaks to understand it, and that that system is now talked about at least as much as the games themselves.  Brilliant stuff.

With the Ottawa/Arizona calibre teams using fake contracts to reach the cap floor it really is baffling why a luxury tax system wasn't explored more that would have put actual dollars into the coffers of the have not teams so they could put players who could actually contribute to their lineup in those spots.

Ya like TAM in the MLS.  Why not?

 

[Highlander]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1171828751673516032

I support Justin Holl

I supported the Kids in the Holl and where did that get me?

 

[4EVRLEAFAN]

I've said it before I'll say again, Mitch Marner is a spoiled selfish little brat, trade him!!!

 

[Highlander]

even more:

https://puckprose.com/2019/09/11/toronto-maple-leafs-mitch-marner-isnt-coming-around-reason/

 

[Bullfrog]

My view is very similar to what you've stated here. The major difference between my view on Marner and Nylander is that I just don't think Marner is good enough. I'm not saying he's not an elite player - he is - but he's nowhere near Matthews value in my books. I think Sebastian Aho's contract is the perfect contract for Marner, but I'm positive he'll get more.

Um excuse me: 94 pts vs 73 pts. 17 playoff pts vs 13. Clark vs Sundin.
The only reason he is nowhere near Matthews' value is because he has exceeded it! - Paul Marner

Damn it. Foiled by math!

 

[Kin]

even more:

https://puckprose.com/2019/09/11/toronto-maple-leafs-mitch-marner-isnt-coming-around-reason/

A $9 million AAV over three years for any player is unprecedented in the salary cap era. The most expensive three-year deal given to a player with Marner?s status (first-time RFA) belongs to Marian Gaborik, who signed a three-year deal worth $6,333,333 annually.

Gaborik's deal, as a % of thecap, works out to 13.3 million now.

 

[herman]

My view is very similar to what you've stated here. The major difference between my view on Marner and Nylander is that I just don't think Marner is good enough. I'm not saying he's not an elite player - he is - but he's nowhere near Matthews value in my books. I think Sebastian Aho's contract is the perfect contract for Marner, but I'm positive he'll get more.

Um excuse me: 94 pts vs 73 pts. 17 playoff pts vs 13. Clark vs Sundin.
The only reason he is nowhere near Matthews' value is because he has exceeded it! - Paul Marner

Damn it. Foiled by math!

I?m convinced that is the crux of their argument.

 

[Bullfrog]

What now?

Trade his ass.

$11M a year for 7 or 8 years is not enough for a 22 year old RFA (what does "Restricted" mean any more?). At $11M it is obvious that cap space is not the issue.

If Marner believes his market value is greater than that, he should be allowed to seek it out wherever it may prove to be available.

And NO, I don't care how talented he is. His talent level is a given. 

This should have been done last year with ME-lander. It was not and now it has contributed to this situation. It is becoming a trend.

Flame away if you must but this is my opinion and I am unanimous in that.

Definition of unanimous
1: formed with or indicating unanimity : having the agreement and consent of all
2: being of one mind : AGREEING

 

[Kin]

I still can't figure out what the thinking is for people who think this contract issue is the result of Marner and his reps being uniquely unreasonable or unwilling to negotiate. If that's the case, how do they explain every other prominent RFA still being unsigned?

 

[Strangelove]

Mitch is a talented, largely one dimensional RFA with a good season (followed by a bad playoffs) under his belt.

$11 million should never have been on the table. The fact that he rejected it is mind-boggling.