Mitch Marner: what now?

[Coco-puffs]

Certainly, but the only way they can fit him in under the cap on November 30th is likely on a 1 year deal.  Maybe a 2 year one.  And then we have to deal with this all again in 4 months.

Sure but next time Dubas will have established that he's willing to go to the wire if Marner doesn't get into "let's make a deal" mode before the season. Marner could look for and actively solicit offer sheets next year but that would probably be better for the Leafs than another negotiation. Marner would establish his market value and Dubas then can decide if Marner's worth it or the team would rather have the space/RFA compensation.

If people think that Marner is going to sign a team friendly deal because he's a local kid then the team might have to really threaten to take that away from him. If he wants to go elsewhere, make him either prove he's worth elite money to another team or match the deal he does get. The right to match RFA offers is only a round in the chamber if you're occasionally willing to fire.

Agreed.  As CtB point out, I'd hold firm if I was Dubas.  I know Dubas has said he doesn't want to go down that road again after what went down with Nylander- but at least Nylander was being reasonable.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Certainly, but the only way they can fit him in under the cap on November 30th is likely on a 1 year deal.  Maybe a 2 year one.  And then we have to deal with this all again in 4 months.

Would kicking this just to next year even be a terrible idea at that point? Especially after Matthews win the Rocket and Mitch struggles to score at a 60 point pace after missing 3 months?

Then it comes down to "how much for one year Mitch?"

"12 million"

"oh"

He'd have ZERO leverage for that.  If he doesnt' sign, he's not earning more than a couple of million in the KHL or a couple hundred thousand in the NLA.  Anything above 4M is the Leafs hoping to gain favour with their camp by not squeezing him extremely hard in that situation.

 

[Stebro]

How many teams in the league do you guys think could and would offer Marner a long term deal at more than 11 million/season.

 

[Zee]

Certainly, but the only way they can fit him in under the cap on November 30th is likely on a 1 year deal.  Maybe a 2 year one.  And then we have to deal with this all again in 4 months.

Would kicking this just to next year even be a terrible idea at that point? Especially after Matthews win the Rocket and Mitch struggles to score at a 60 point pace after missing 3 months?

Then it comes down to "how much for one year Mitch?"

"12 million"

"oh"

He'd have ZERO leverage for that.  If he doesnt' sign, he's not earning more than a couple of million in the KHL or a couple hundred thousand in the NLA.  Anything above 4M is the Leafs hoping to gain favour with their camp by not squeezing him extremely hard in that situation.

That may be true, but if you can't get them to agree to a deal it's not happening.  If he ends up sitting out the entire year this relationship is all but done. 

 

[Kin]

How many teams in the league do you guys think could and would offer Marner a long term deal at more than 11 million/season.

With or without RFA compensation?

 

[Stebro]

How many teams in the league do you guys think could and would offer Marner a long term deal at more than 11 million/season.

With or without RFA compensation?

Without, so after a trade with the leafs.

 

[Kin]

Without, so after a trade with the leafs.

Honestly at that point it seems like a bigger issue would be what they'd have to give the Leafs.

Because if the question is just "What would Mitch Marner be worth on a somewhat open market" like as a UFA, I feel pretty confident that a lot of teams would offer him 11 million per.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Because if the question is just "What would Mitch Marner be worth on a somewhat open market" like as a UFA, I feel pretty confident that a lot of teams would offer him 11 million per.

After Panarin got $11mil+ that seems likely.

 

[Bender]

Agent: "If I?m representing the player, my ideal contract is three years, $12 million AAV."

Lebrun article on The Athletic. lol Jesus Christ.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Agent: "If I?m representing the player, my ideal contract is three years, $12 million AAV."

Lebrun article on The Athletic. lol Jesus Christ.

My ideal girlfriend is Taylor Swift.

 

[Kin]

Agent: "If I?m representing the player, my ideal contract is three years, $12 million AAV."

Lebrun article on The Athletic. lol Jesus Christ.

My ideal girlfriend is Taylor Swift.

Heck, figure a way to make that work and you wouldn't need 3 years and 12 million AAV.

 

[ZBBM]

Y'all read this yet?

http://faceoffcircle.ca/2019/09/11/the-mitch-marner-situation-is-rapidly-approaching-the-point-of-no-return/

This is the correct take.

I think the guy is being alarmist.

 

[Frank E]

Y'all read this yet?

http://faceoffcircle.ca/2019/09/11/the-mitch-marner-situation-is-rapidly-approaching-the-point-of-no-return/

This is the correct take.

I think the guy is being alarmist.

Me too...there really isn't much fact in there, it's mostly speculation, save the Marner's dad quote....everything else is speculation and unconfirmed stuff.

I really can't believe that Marner would turn down $11m x 7.

 

[Kin]

I really can't believe that Marner would turn down $11m x 7.

I can. These guys don't want to lock in for 7 or 8 years. Remember how a few years ago everyone was giving the Oilers crap for the Draisaitl deal? Now GMs would slit their mothers' throats to get something similar.

Signing 7 or 8 year deals will probably cost most free agents 10 million or more.

 

[mr grieves]

He'd have ZERO leverage for that.  If he doesnt' sign, he's not earning more than a couple of million in the KHL or a couple hundred thousand in the NLA.  Anything above 4M is the Leafs hoping to gain favour with their camp by not squeezing him extremely hard in that situation.

That may be true, but if you can't get them to agree to a deal it's not happening.  If he ends up sitting out the entire year this relationship is all but done.

If Marner sits the year, their relationship isn't done until Marner turns 27 -- or thereabouts.

 

[Kin]

If Marner sits the year, their relationship isn't done until Marner turns 27 -- or thereabouts.

I believe he means in a functional sense, not contractual.

 

[mr grieves]

If Marner sits the year, their relationship isn't done until Marner turns 27 -- or thereabouts.

I believe he means in a functional sense, not contractual.

Yes, and I meant leveraging the latter to force a desired outcome in the former.

For all the talk of leverage, pressure points, and relationships, there's the brute fact that if Marner wants to play professional hockey in North America, he does so either for the Maple Leafs or where the Leafs think it worth their while for him to play.

 

[Kin]

If Marner sits the year, their relationship isn't done until Marner turns 27 -- or thereabouts.

I believe he means in a functional sense, not contractual.

Yes, and I meant leveraging the latter to force a desired outcome in the former.

Leveraging the latter seems like it would only make the former worse.

 

[mr grieves]

If Marner sits the year, their relationship isn't done until Marner turns 27 -- or thereabouts.

I believe he means in a functional sense, not contractual.

Yes, and I meant leveraging the latter to force a desired outcome in the former.

Leveraging the latter seems like it would only make the former worse.

If the man wants a Matthews contract, which would disrupt their roster blueprint by forcing them to cut fat they no longer have, then I'm not so sure.

The premise of the negotiations thus far seems to be that the Leafs need Marner more than he needs them. This is not true. That's the nature of being a restricted free agent.

 

[Bates]

I really can't believe that Marner would turn down $11m x 7.

I can. These guys don't want to lock in for 7 or 8 years. Remember how a few years ago everyone was giving the Oilers crap for the Draisaitl deal? Now GMs would slit their mothers' throats to get something similar.

Signing 7 or 8 year deals will probably cost most free agents 10 million or more.

 

The Bridege deal would likely cost them approaching the $6 million mark in next 3 years so with the benefit of compound growth on your money the difference would be negligible.