Nylander signs 6-year contract

[L K]

Who's higher in value, Kapanen or Nylander?  ???

Kapenan by a long shot

No. This is incorrect.

Almost exact same age and size. Play the same position for the same team. Nylander has twice as many games played and 3.5 times as many points.

Have to consider contract when deciding value.

True, but whole body of work and future value should also be considered. Looking at the contract in a vacuum doesn't tell you anything.

Never suggested in vacuum, but above I suggested you need to know Kapanen next contract before being able to even think about comparing their value. Kapanen at $2 million might present greater value than Nylander. Kapanen at $5 million changes it completely for me.

Kapanen scoring 50+ points isn't going to get a 2 million dollar contract though.  Hyman off a 28 point season got 4 years-9 million.  Kapanen already has more goals and points than that season.
Brown got 2.1 for scoring 20G 16A.

It's optimistic to think that Kapanen gets anywhere less than 3.5 I think.

 

[Bates]

Who's higher in value, Kapanen or Nylander?  ???

Kapenan by a long shot

No. This is incorrect.

Almost exact same age and size. Play the same position for the same team. Nylander has twice as many games played and 3.5 times as many points.

Have to consider contract when deciding value.

True, but whole body of work and future value should also be considered. Looking at the contract in a vacuum doesn't tell you anything.

Never suggested in vacuum, but above I suggested you need to know Kapanen next contract before being able to even think about comparing their value. Kapanen at $2 million might present greater value than Nylander. Kapanen at $5 million changes it completely for me.

Kapanen scoring 50+ points isn't going to get a 2 million dollar contract though.  Hyman off a 28 point season got 4 years-9 million.  Kapanen already has more goals and points than that season.
Brown got 2.1 for scoring 20G 16A.

It's optimistic to think that Kapanen gets anywhere less than 3.5 I think.

I agree and that contract would make for a good debate on value comparison to Nylander. Nylander drives play and is a better player but I'm not sure he's better than twice the price of Kapanen??? Especially for top heavy Leafs with better options at center.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/_nickrichard/status/1088601922125348864

Nylander heating up as Marner inevitably cools down will keep the Leafs going.

 

[dappleganger]

https://twitter.com/_nickrichard/status/1088601922125348864

Nylander heating up as Marner inevitably cools down will keep the Leafs going.

You can use subjective stats to find positives but at the end of the day, until the NHL starts deciding games on scoring chances instead of goals scored the Leafs it ain't gonna mean much except, he should be doing better.

Question, who gets to decide what a scoring chance is? Is it the same guy who decides what a hit is?

 

[Kin]

You can use subjective stats to find positives but at the end of the day, until the NHL starts deciding games on scoring chances instead of goals scored the Leafs it ain't gonna mean much except, he should be doing better.

It's not about "finding positives" but about trying to put a scoring slump into context of bad luck vs. actually bad play.

Teams lose games because of bad luck all the time, it doesn't mean they lose an emphasis on playing well.

 

[dappleganger]

You can use subjective stats to find positives but at the end of the day, until the NHL starts deciding games on scoring chances instead of goals scored the Leafs it ain't gonna mean much except, he should be doing better.

It's not about "finding positives" but about trying to put a scoring slump into context of bad luck vs. actually bad play.

Teams lose games because of bad luck all the time, it doesn't mean they lose an emphasis on playing well.

Yes, but to say Willy hasn't been scoring because of "bad luck" is disingenuous. His play has been bad, until very recently. I would say hasn't been "sharp" enough to capitalize on those opportunities.

Tbh, I'm skeptical on what these "scoring chances" are because until recently, Nylander wasn't generating much in the offensive zone. He has a total of 38 shots on goal so far this year.

 

[Kin]

Yes, but to say Willy hasn't been scoring because of "bad luck" is disingenuous.

No, it emphatically isn't. You're free to agree or disagree all you want based on how people are defining good vs. bad play but the people who are putting forth the argument that Nylander's play has been mostly good even though he hasn't hit the score sheet are doing so genuinely(I can't see into everyone's hearts but you'd at least have to come up with a reason as to why anyone would be motivated to say Nylander's play has been good despite thinking it hasn't before saying that's what they're doing).

 

[herman]

Question, who gets to decide what a scoring chance is? Is it the same guy who decides what a hit is?

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/glossary.php?lines

Scoring Chances - a scoring chance, as originally defined by War-on-Ice.
Each shot attempt (Corsi) taken in the offensive zone is assigned a value based on the area of the zone in which it was recorded. Attempts made from the attacking team's neutral or defensive zones are excluded.

Attempts from the yellow areas are assigned a value of 1, attempts from the red areas are assigned a value of 2, and attempts in the green area are assigned a value of 3.

Add 1 to this value if the attempt is considered a rush shot or a rebound. A rebound is any attempt made within 3 seconds of another blocked, missed or saved attempt without a stoppage in play in between. A rush shot is any attempt within 4 seconds of any event in the neutral or defensive zone without a stoppage in play in between (originally defined by David Johnson on the now-offline Hockey Analysis, and modified to 4 seconds by War-on-Ice).

Decrease this value by 1 if it was a blocked shot.

Any attempt with a score of 2 or higher is considered a scoring chance.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Nylander has a 56% CF this season. If that's time playing like crap then the rest of the league should be very worried once he's playing at his best.

 

[cabber24]

Nylander has a 56% CF this season. If that's time playing like crap then the rest of the league should be very worried once he's playing at his best.

Not terrible but not at Marner's level either.

 

[bustaheims]

Nylander has a 56% CF this season. If that's time playing like crap then the rest of the league should be very worried once he's playing at his best.

Not terrible but not at Marner's level either.

NHL.com has Nylander at 54.9% and Marner at 50.7%. So, yeah, not at Marner's level...

 

[dappleganger]

Question, who gets to decide what a scoring chance is? Is it the same guy who decides what a hit is?

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/glossary.php?lines

Scoring Chances - a scoring chance, as originally defined by War-on-Ice.
Each shot attempt (Corsi) taken in the offensive zone is assigned a value based on the area of the zone in which it was recorded. Attempts made from the attacking team's neutral or defensive zones are excluded.

Attempts from the yellow areas are assigned a value of 1, attempts from the red areas are assigned a value of 2, and attempts in the green area are assigned a value of 3.

Add 1 to this value if the attempt is considered a rush shot or a rebound. A rebound is any attempt made within 3 seconds of another blocked, missed or saved attempt without a stoppage in play in between. A rush shot is any attempt within 4 seconds of any event in the neutral or defensive zone without a stoppage in play in between (originally defined by David Johnson on the now-offline Hockey Analysis, and modified to 4 seconds by War-on-Ice).

Decrease this value by 1 if it was a blocked shot.

Any attempt with a score of 2 or higher is considered a scoring chance.

Ok, thanks for this.


What does this mean:

Mitch Marner has 14 individual high danger scoring chances (which is a scoring chance with a point value of 3 or higher)  and 11 goals since Willy has been back.

Willy Nylander has 20 iHDSC and 1 goal.


At what point is it bad luck and when is it the player not  being good enough to capitalize on his opportunities?

 

[herman]

Marner's quality of competition is higher, but his quality of teammate is also much higher.

Nylander rolling over 3rd and 4th lines is only natural, and using him and Kadri like a more effective/responsible Bozak-JvR is what makes the Leafs depth so scary since Tavares + Matthews can usually saw off, or go a bit over their top-6 match ups.

If Nylander were in the top six, they might get a slight edge once he fully gets going alongside Matthews, but I don't think Kadri-Kapanen is going to light up bottom-6s as well. Either way, the team has options with its plug and play wingers, at least on the right. The left wing is in tough with Johnsson out.

 

[cabber24]

Nylander has a 56% CF this season. If that's time playing like crap then the rest of the league should be very worried once he's playing at his best.

Not terrible but not at Marner's level either.

NHL.com has Nylander at 54.9% and Marner at 50.7%. So, yeah, not at Marner's level...

Yup, Nylander's been as good as Marner since his return... in fact better. Totally disagree.

 

[herman]

What does this mean:

Mitch Marner has 14 individual high danger scoring chances (which is a scoring chance with a point value of 3 or higher)  and 11 goals since Willy has been back.

Willy Nylander has 20 iHDSC and 1 goal.

At what point is it bad luck and when is it the player not  being good enough to capitalize on his opportunities?

Both Marner and Nylander's current 'luck' (good and bad) are unsustainable. Marner isn't a 20+% SH% player; Matthews is around 18% for reference (and even he has been stuck around 3% since Dec) and I think it's pretty easy to agree that Marner is not as good a shooter as Matthews. Both Nylander and Marner are historically (in their short NHL track of results) around 10% shooters. So one being at 20+ and the other being at 2ish are obviously outliers.

High danger numbers are also notoriously spiky, in that there are only a handful of high danger plays per game, and so luck has an inordinate influence on those focused numbers even over the course of a season.

The point of looking at these underlying numbers is to paint a larger picture of what's happening on the ice when these players are interacting with the play, as a way to describe past play (with the luck semi-filtered out) and to estimate future performance. If we only look at the point production for any subset of time that is one season or less, you might get a skewed result affecting a serious decision (see David Clarkson).

 

[dappleganger]

Marner's quality of competition is higher, but his quality of teammate is also much higher.

Nylander rolling over 3rd and 4th lines is only natural, and using him and Kadri like a more effective/responsible Bozak-JvR is what makes the Leafs depth so scary since Tavares + Matthews can usually saw off, or go a bit over their top-6 match ups.

If Nylander were in the top six, they might get a slight edge once he fully gets going alongside Matthews, but I don't think Kadri-Kapanen is going to light up bottom-6s as well. Either way, the team has options with its plug and play wingers, at least on the right. The left wing is in tough with Johnsson out.

Ok, what do you make of this:

Freddie Gauthier is creating scoring chances at about the same rate per minute as Willy. (FG 0.16/minute - WN - 0.17/minute)

Freddie is scoring at a much higher rate than Willy per minute (FG 0.017 - WN 0.004)

Does that put any of this into perspective?

 

[herman]

Ok, what do you make of this:

Freddie Gauthier is creating scoring chances at about the same rate per minute as Willy. (FG 0.16/minute - WN - 0.17/minute)

Freddie is scoring at a much higher rate than Willy per minute (FG 0.017 - WN 0.004)

Does that put any of this into perspective?

Where are these numbers coming from?

This is NaturalStatTrick's 5v5 individual rates for Leaf forwards sorted in Descending order of individual scoring chances for per 60 minutes (iSCF/60):

Player	GP	SH%	iCF/60	iFF/60	iSCF/60	iHDCF/60
Auston Matthews	35	15.07	17.66	13.31	11.82	4.6
John Tavares	49	19.49	16.5	13.05	11.54	5.89
William Nylander	21	3.45	15.95	11.96	10.47	4.74
Mitchell Marner	49	14.12	14.64	10.19	9.51	2.57
Kasperi Kapanen	49	12.79	15.05	11.61	9.48	4.55
Nazem Kadri	49	6.74	16.66	12.95	9.14	3.52
Zach Hyman	39	4.76	11.36	9.62	8.69	5.68
Andreas Johnsson	43	16.07	11.96	9.82	7.43	3.53
Patrick Marleau	49	11.59	10.46	8.76	7.06	3.31
Frederik Gauthier	40	7.69	9.55	6.82	7.02	3.31
Tyler Ennis	33	20	11.91	10.18	6.93	3.9
Connor Brown	49	4.65	9.73	8.42	6.23	3.61
Par Lindholm	49	2.22	12.78	10.28	5.51	2.76
Trevor Moore	7	50	9.49	6.78	5.42	1.36

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Freddie Gauthier is creating scoring chances at about the same rate per minute as Willy. (FG 0.16/minute - WN - 0.17/minute)

What are these stats from? Since Nylander's signing he's 6th among forwards in shots/60 at 5-on-5, Gauthier is 12th. In individual shot attempts Nylander's 5th, Gauthier's 12th. In scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances Nylander's 4th, Gauthier's 10th.

edit: mr. fancy pants herman had to break this down more thoroughly than I did

 

[Kin]

At what point is it bad luck and when is it the player not  being good enough to capitalize on his opportunities?

Are you seriously suggesting that the issue right now is that despite what we saw from Nylander over his first two seasons he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity?

 

[dappleganger]

Ok, what do you make of this:

Freddie Gauthier is creating scoring chances at about the same rate per minute as Willy. (FG 0.16/minute - WN - 0.17/minute)

Freddie is scoring at a much higher rate than Willy per minute (FG 0.017 - WN 0.004)

Does that put any of this into perspective?

Where are these numbers coming from?

This is NaturalStatTrick's 5v5 individual rates for Leaf forwards sorted in Descending order of individual scoring chances for per 60 minutes (iSCF/60):

Player	GP	SH%	iCF/60	iFF/60	iSCF/60	iHDCF/60
Auston Matthews	35	15.07	17.66	13.31	11.82	4.6
John Tavares	49	19.49	16.5	13.05	11.54	5.89
William Nylander	21	3.45	15.95	11.96	10.47	4.74
Mitchell Marner	49	14.12	14.64	10.19	9.51	2.57
Kasperi Kapanen	49	12.79	15.05	11.61	9.48	4.55
Nazem Kadri	49	6.74	16.66	12.95	9.14	3.52
Zach Hyman	39	4.76	11.36	9.62	8.69	5.68
Andreas Johnsson	43	16.07	11.96	9.82	7.43	3.53
Patrick Marleau	49	11.59	10.46	8.76	7.06	3.31
Frederik Gauthier	40	7.69	9.55	6.82	7.02	3.31
Tyler Ennis	33	20	11.91	10.18	6.93	3.9
Connor Brown	49	4.65	9.73	8.42	6.23	3.61
Par Lindholm	49	2.22	12.78	10.28	5.51	2.76
Trevor Moore	7	50	9.49	6.78	5.42	1.36

Sorry, I was using last 21 games, since Willy's been back.

Edit: Also I miscalculated. FG is at 0.12 not 0.16 iSC/minute.  ;D