dappleganger
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
No, what I'm saying is so far this season he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity.
Nylander signs 6-year contract
- Thread starter louisstamos
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No, what I'm saying is so far this season he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity.
herman
Well-known member
Dappleganger said:
Not sure what else to tell you because I don't fully understand what you mean 'not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity' because he's clearly good enough to be getting the puck into those aforementioned positions to generate really good opportunities better than Leafs not named Tavares and Matthews, while trying to catch up to mid-season form from having 2 months off.
Kin
New member
Dappleganger said:
Ok, and that's where the numbers suggest a different story. Provided we all agree he's got a certain baseline of talent where he should be able to convert on chances and the numbers show he's generating chances(which should answer any charges of, say, a lack of effort) then what would explain the lack of scoring other than bad luck?
If the effort and talent is there then what can anyone, him or the coaching staff, do differently to get a different outcome? How does he "play better"?
Dappleganger said:
Hockey stats typically aren't measured on a per minute basis. It just narrows everything down to too small of a number. Sites like NST give you the option of looking at rate stats per 60 minutes, which has generally becoming the standard for that sort of thing. And using that it shows a pretty wide margin between Nylander and Gauthier in pretty much all shot/scoring chances categories.
Highlander
Active member
Yes, on his next contract he will become the highest paid GOAT in the world.Dappleganger said:
herman
Well-known member
Nik the Trik said:
I think what a lot of people have hang ups about Nylander is that he ?looks? casual in his general play.
If you iso-watch him though, some of that casualness is because of how easy the basic fundamentals of the game are for him, and some of it is, yes, because he chose the easier route, and other times it?s because he already got the job done easily and is off to offense and never had to do any apparent spade work (Hyman).
Kin
New member
herman said:
Maybe. But not especially physical players with offensive talent always get dogged as lazy, right up to and including Mario Lemieux.
I think the bigger issue here is people who thought Nylander would get less than he did trying to retroactively confirm their beliefs that he wasn't as good a player as his salary demands indicated.
dappleganger
Active member
herman said:
I'd think the timing, accuracy, decision making of where to place his shot isn't up to snuff yet. Maybe it's physical, maybe it's mental. I just think it's too much of a disparity between opportunity and results to just say bad luck.
herman
Well-known member
It's taking awhile but fluency in these contextual stats is starting to creep into broadcasts and interview responses from the coach and (especially our) GM.
When Babcock talks about Scoring Chances, I don't think he is referring to the traditional scoring chance defined by Roger Neilson or even the one defined by War-on-Ice as linked in NaturalStatTrick's glossary upthread, but it is a similar concept of contextualizing shot quality (like Expected Goals).
There are many ingredients and variations that go into generating a goal, and each method is just trying to find a uniform way of quantifying it. The NHL started with just counting goals alone, and then added assists, second assists, and then plus/minus (which while flawed, had the right intentions). Analytics is just the recognition that there are many repeatable situations in which hockey goals are scored and wants to dive into which cuts of data will consistently lead to winning.
When Babcock talks about Scoring Chances, I don't think he is referring to the traditional scoring chance defined by Roger Neilson or even the one defined by War-on-Ice as linked in NaturalStatTrick's glossary upthread, but it is a similar concept of contextualizing shot quality (like Expected Goals).
There are many ingredients and variations that go into generating a goal, and each method is just trying to find a uniform way of quantifying it. The NHL started with just counting goals alone, and then added assists, second assists, and then plus/minus (which while flawed, had the right intentions). Analytics is just the recognition that there are many repeatable situations in which hockey goals are scored and wants to dive into which cuts of data will consistently lead to winning.
herman
Well-known member
Nik the Trik said:
That's very likely an aspect of the situation too. A lot of hockey fans grew up in the era of the 'blue collar' hockey player laying his own personal wellbeing on the line for the success of the team, which leads to some interesting moralizations of the sport as well.
dappleganger
Active member
Nik the Trik said:
I really wish I could see video of the scoring chances. Maybe it'd make sense why he's not finishing. I can't say anything other than he's had the opportunity but can't finish.
herman
Well-known member
Dappleganger said:
There's probably something to all that in the first two months of a player's return to the ice after months of inactivity. Matthews' shooting is way down since his shoulder injury.
At the same time, it's hard to see his (and Matthews') previous performance and truly believe that Nylander has completely lost his hockey abilities for the rest of his career. I'm exaggerating a bit, but that's how a lot of Nylander-complaints sound to me.
What these deeper numbers have shown repeatedly over the years and on teams other than the Leafs is that the performance numbers will generally rebound back to a player's (and team's) true performance level given enough time. It took Kadri 2/3rds of the 2015-16 season to bounce out of shooting ~2%. We reaped a nice team-friendly deal out of it. It took half a season for Mitch Marner to come out of his scoring funk, and look at him now.
herman
Well-known member
An additional thing to add re: Nylander's production
It's about more than just his own shot. Nylander is a playmaker and elite finesse cycle player, and his linemates put up diddly squat on the chances he set up for them, until the Capitals game.
Take a look at where most of our shots come from when Nylander is on the ice:
His line is getting some good chances in the slot and left circle, and generally those passes are coming from the RW.
Everyone who plays with him gets more chances on offense than they have to play defense (except for Kadri, early on).
It's about more than just his own shot. Nylander is a playmaker and elite finesse cycle player, and his linemates put up diddly squat on the chances he set up for them, until the Capitals game.
Take a look at where most of our shots come from when Nylander is on the ice:
His line is getting some good chances in the slot and left circle, and generally those passes are coming from the RW.
Everyone who plays with him gets more chances on offense than they have to play defense (except for Kadri, early on).
Kin
New member
Yeah, I don't think anyone would object to the idea that in addition to bad luck(or whatever) that there's maybe a bit of rust that's compounding the problem. I think the real difference here though is that a lot of people are looking at the chance generating numbers not so much as signs that Nylander is "playing well" as evidence that whatever is going wrong right now, whatever you want to attribute it to, should resolve itself. If Nylander's underlying numbers were bad, there'd be more concern but absent that I don't think there's anything particularly productive about arguing the difference between "good" and "bad" in relation to his play.
dappleganger
Active member
herman said:
Oh no, I'm not suggesting that. I think Willy is out of it. His second half should be back to career norms.
19 of Willy's 45 iSCF came during a 5 game stretch between December 28th - January 7th. 26 iSCF in his other 16 games so consistency seems to be an issue. Doesn't help that Babs keeps throwing him up and down the lineup.
Guru Tugginmypuddah
Active member
Remember when Sundin was criticised for his skating and work ethic?
Guilt Trip
Active member
Yup and how sad was that? He was skating slow because he was carrying the opposition on his back most nights. Remember the good ole days of clutching and grabbing? Could you imagine Sundin with this group and playing in this era where the clutching and grabbing are all but gone?Guru Tugginmypuddah said: