Nylander signs 6-year contract

[herman]

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/beyond-headlines-learned-dubas-nylander-saga/

There has never been a contract structured quite like it in NHL history.

The Leafs own tons of salary cap space this season and will start to feel the squeeze in 2019-20, so they came up with a way to pay Nylander heavy right away ? to the tune of more than $17 million by July 1, making him whole and then some for the days missed because of the impasse ? while gaming the cap system and keeping his AAV to $6.96 million for the final five years of the deal.

They also built in some lockout protection with annual signing bonuses of $3.5-million starting in 2020. They added a 10-team trade list in 2023-24, the only year he was eligible to receive such protection.

They basically guaranteed Nylander would walk away feeling good about the contract while keeping him within a range where they believe Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner can still be signed without breaking up the band.

The CBA's RFA deadline and cap hit calculation facilitated this particular salary structure that allowed both parties to feel like they won something. The picture Johnston paints is not one of animosity, though there were moments of frustration, but a group of people making some small concessions to solve a problem together.

 

[L K]

The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

Nylander's deal is basically the new Kadri deal. He's going to outperform this valuation immediately.

That has yet to be seen.  He has missed all of training camp and 25% of the season at this point.  It's going to take him some time to get up and running and even then things will never be the same.  He has missed all that time playing with his linemates.  All that time when he should have been learning Babcock's systems and strategies.  Remember he did only score 20 goals last season and he has missed 1/4 of the season now.  What does that extrapolate to, 15 goals this season?  Kapanen already had 10 the last time I checked.

I?m just not that worried.  Guys miss chunks of games all the time and come back ? most frequently due to injuries.  Eg, Matthews missed 14 games? Nylander will miss 30?

Sure, it may take a month before he is back in complete synch with his line mates. That doesn?t seem like the end of the world given the way the team is playing.  There is plenty of time for him to ramp up for the playoffs.

At the end of the day we don't need elite Nylander in Game 42, but in Game 83.  He has 50 games to get into prime shape.

 

[Bender]

Glad this was resolved and finally over with.  But seeing in the end how it played out, can't help but think this could have been resolved three months ago with no need for this b.s.  And Nylander is no worse for wear finally from this dispute.  He did well and his agent deserves a little extra something as a result.

Really happy to have Nylander back in the fold.

I kind of view this as a CBA problem more than anything else. Lack of arbitration means each side is incentivized to dig in.

 

[herman]

Also from the LeBrun round up of responses around the league:

Another agent said the $7.5 million comparable wouldn?t fly in his opinion.

?The 7.5 argument doesn?t really work ? only real dollar matters,? he said. ?You can, of course, argue that but it defies logic based on real dollars. Even an arbitrator would recognize it?s at 6.969.?

When I was first contemplating ideas for how the lost-time cap hit calculations could work in the Leafs and Nylander's favour (which ended up being the result), I wondered if the 'actual' AAV would come into play as the benchmark for comparison.

I like that Pridham and Gilman basically structured it to pay out Nylander this season as if it was a whole year's salary, using whatever flexibility they had on hand to make Willy comfortable with the number they were settling on.

 

[Frank E]

It looked a little uneventful when Nylander got in at Pearson.

Wearing a hoodie and stuff...who was the guy that picked him up?

 

[ZBBM]

It looked a little uneventful when Nylander got in at Pearson.

Wearing a hoodie and stuff...who was the guy that picked him up?

That was me.  I drive for Uber.  It was a nice gig, he's a really down-to-earth guy, gave me a $20 tip!  About covers the gas for the trip in that big honkin' SUV I run.

 

[Bill_Berg]

As far as the trade comment goes. The only way I see them trading Nylander is if because now that he's signed, his value is higher, so he'll return a defenceman of equal value. But that still depends on two things, one is that another team is willing to make a trade along those lines, and two is that the Leafs think they need to make a move along those lines.

I'll be surprised if he's traded anytime in the next 5 years.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/realkyper/status/1069623843029798913

 

[L K]

So probably Leivo for like a 7th or an AHL player who doesn't have to go on the NHL roster?

 

[digdug]

Leafs sent Dermott down temporarily  to give them time to make a trade

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/hockey/news/maple-leafs-travis-dermott-temporarily-sent-to-minors/

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/realkyper/status/1069623843029798913

I can't really see the return on Leivo being worth it to go that route as opposed to just waiving Gauthier or Holl.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So probably Leivo for like a 7th or an AHL player who doesn't have to go on the NHL roster?

Leivo for a upper quality AHL goalie who's already passed through waivers might interest me I guess. But if it's just for a 6th or 7th round pick then like I said just waive Gauthier or Holl, they'd both clear I'd imagine.

 

[Kin]

So probably Leivo for like a 7th or an AHL player who doesn't have to go on the NHL roster?

Leivo for a upper quality AHL goalie who's already passed through waivers might interest me I guess. But if it's just for a 6th or 7th round pick then like I said just waive Gauthier or Holl, they'd both clear I'd imagine.

I know this is probably just me being optimistic but at this point Leivo has basically played an entire season's worth of NHL games over his career. In those 84 games he's got 14 goals, 28 points with pretty decent possession numbers and only getting around 11 minutes a game.

I appreciate the ways in which the NHL doesn't tend to work like this but if that represented a single season for a player, what would that player be worth? Ok, still not much probably but the idea of getting a 3rd or a 4th for a guy who's sort of proven he can be an effective 4th liner with some scoring punch isn't the craziest thing in the world.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I know this is probably just me being optimistic but at this point Leivo has basically played an entire season's worth of NHL games over his career. In those 84 games he's got 14 goals, 28 points with pretty decent possession numbers and only getting around 11 minutes a game.

I appreciate the ways in which the NHL doesn't tend to work like this but if that represented a single season for a player, what would that player be worth? Ok, still not much probably but the idea of getting a 3rd or a 4th for a guy who's sort of proven he can be an effective 4th liner with some scoring punch isn't the craziest thing in the world.

Yeah I get where you're coming from, throwing a mid round pick away seems like a fair deal for a young player who should be a productive part of your 4th line. I just can't think of any comparables where a player like him got that much. But who knows. Maybe whoever loses out on the Brendan Leipsic waivers sweepstakes will be desperate.

 

[Kin]

Yeah I get where you're coming from, throwing a mid round pick away seems like a fair deal for a young player who should be a productive part of your 4th line. I just can't think of any comparables where a player like him got that much. But who knows. Maybe whoever loses out on the Brendan Leipsic waivers sweepstakes will be desperate.

It's not a perfect comparison but Frank Vatrano had somewhat similar numbers(31 points in 109 games spread over 3 seasons) with Boston when he was traded to Florida for a 3rd rounder.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/scottcwheeler/status/1069634821465538560

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/reporterchris/status/1069638724202496000

Babcock pretty convincingly said that Dermott will play tomorrow, so if no one went on waivers a trade needs to drop for that to happen.

 

[cabber24]

https://twitter.com/realkyper/status/1069623843029798913

I can't really see the return on Leivo being worth it to go that route as opposed to just waiving Gauthier or Holl.

We're spoiled... still important to manage assets as efficiently as possible. I would rather see Gauthier waived then receive a 6th or 7th round pick for Levio.

 

[Kin]

https://twitter.com/scottcwheeler/status/1069634821465538560

That seems to more or less jive with the notion that the contract dispute would mean that the room would resent Nylander and would reject his return.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/scottcwheeler/status/1069634821465538560

That seems to more or less jive with the notion that the contract dispute would mean that the room would resent Nylander and would reject his return.

It makes too much sense for Marner to do this even if there was a rift in the room:
- Nylander sets the table for Marner's negotiation
- Marner loves memes
- Marner loves dancing
- Marner loves hugs