Nylander signs 6-year contract

[ZBBM]

It's nonsense because it's arbitrary. It's a line drawn in the sand purely out of ego.

Going down to the wire isn't really a risk like it was in the stone ages of fax machines. Probably it was a simple phone call to the league office to say "we have a deal in place." More likely, the deal was already at the office and they just had to say "done."

Not out of ego -- to give yourself options.  Far from arbitrary.  And you missed it, the phones went down in the hypothetical.

 

[TML fan]

This is may ultimately be a minor point but I still think letting it play out like it did is a failure (of process, not results) on the part of Dubas.  If the reported timeline is correct, they got the signed contract at 4:52p EST ... and still had to do some back and forths before submitting to the league.  That is insane.

Sure, it came out all right at literally the last minute but the process is important.  There was no need for that.  All Dubas/Leafs had to do is tell Gross/Nylander that our drop-dead, not-going-to-be-extended internal deadline is X, where X is some date/time well in advance of the official deadline (and we can debate endlessly what an ideal X would have been). 

There is no way a manager should have let that become a high-wire act.

I don't understand this line of thinking. If they had an internal deadline, the deal might not have been done at all. How is that a better outcome?

Why wouldn't it have gotten done?  The dynamics are exactly the same ... so long as Dubas (or whomever) makes it clear to the agent/player that it is a hard deadline.  Of course if the manager isn't committed to that, it doesn't make sense.

Because it's pretty obvious that Nylander's camp wasn't ready to deal until it came down to the wire, if what Dubas said about Nylander calling him is to be believed.

Any kind of internal deadline is just nonsense from the other side of the table. If Nylander's camp called back at the exact same time they did yesterday and said "Let's make a deal" and Dubas was like "nope sorry deadline is passed" then that would be the real failure because the only deadline that passed was the made up one that doesn't mean anything.

It's not nonsense if it's enforced.  That's what makes any deadline mean something.  If he'd set an earlier deadline and stuck to it, what's the difference?  The difference is that he would have had time to trade Nylander, if he he wanted. 

Think of it like this.  What if the metaphorical fax machine had gone down at 4:50p?  Say, a fire alarm goes off in the hotel, the power goes out, the cell connection or web or whatever goes down.  Today we'd be reading stories about how Dubas blew it, and he would have.  He, not Nylander's camp, controls the contract process.

Setting a deadline like that is a negotiating tactic and puts undue pressure on the player's camp to get a deal done before it needs to be. If a deal can get done under the wire, then all you're doing is moving the wire.

It seems like a great idea for the team but it would suck for the player. It seems to me that Dubas' process was to not be unnecessarily antagonistic, which is what this idea is.

 

[ZBBM]

This is may ultimately be a minor point but I still think letting it play out like it did is a failure (of process, not results) on the part of Dubas.  If the reported timeline is correct, they got the signed contract at 4:52p EST ... and still had to do some back and forths before submitting to the league.  That is insane.

Sure, it came out all right at literally the last minute but the process is important.  There was no need for that.  All Dubas/Leafs had to do is tell Gross/Nylander that our drop-dead, not-going-to-be-extended internal deadline is X, where X is some date/time well in advance of the official deadline (and we can debate endlessly what an ideal X would have been). 

There is no way a manager should have let that become a high-wire act.

I don't understand this line of thinking. If they had an internal deadline, the deal might not have been done at all. How is that a better outcome?

Why wouldn't it have gotten done?  The dynamics are exactly the same ... so long as Dubas (or whomever) makes it clear to the agent/player that it is a hard deadline.  Of course if the manager isn't committed to that, it doesn't make sense.

Because it's pretty obvious that Nylander's camp wasn't ready to deal until it came down to the wire, if what Dubas said about Nylander calling him is to be believed.

Any kind of internal deadline is just nonsense from the other side of the table. If Nylander's camp called back at the exact same time they did yesterday and said "Let's make a deal" and Dubas was like "nope sorry deadline is passed" then that would be the real failure because the only deadline that passed was the made up one that doesn't mean anything.

It's not nonsense if it's enforced.  That's what makes any deadline mean something.  If he'd set an earlier deadline and stuck to it, what's the difference?  The difference is that he would have had time to trade Nylander, if he he wanted. 

Think of it like this.  What if the metaphorical fax machine had gone down at 4:50p?  Say, a fire alarm goes off in the hotel, the power goes out, the cell connection or web or whatever goes down.  Today we'd be reading stories about how Dubas blew it, and he would have.  He, not Nylander's camp, controls the contract process.

Setting a deadline like that is a negotiating tactic and puts undue pressure on the player's camp to get a deal done before it needs to be. If a deal can get done under the wire, then all you're doing is moving the wire.

It seems like a great idea for the team but it would suck for the player. It seems to me that Dubas' process was to not be unnecessarily antagonistic, which is what this idea is.

I suppose if you set the deadline at July 15 or whatever it would be undue pressure.  I can't see how one anytime in recent days could be construed that way.

 

[TML fan]

Because you're forcing their hand before it needs to be forced.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

It looks like the average game day thread is about 8 pages.  If that?s true, we?ve spent ~200 pages writing about games.  I can?t find the other Nylander thread but it was up to 150 pages perhaps?  So with 10 more here we are ~160?  ~200 vs ~160 is kind of ridiculous. Thank god it is over.

Over? HA! We're just getting started.  Marner, Matthews, Kapanen. 

 

[princedpw]

It looks like the average game day thread is about 8 pages.  If that?s true, we?ve spent ~200 pages writing about games.  I can?t find the other Nylander thread but it was up to 150 pages perhaps?  So with 10 more here we are ~160?  ~200 vs ~160 is kind of ridiculous. Thank god it is over.

150 pages?? Gameday threads are only 2 or 3 pages. You do know you can adjust the number of responses per page right? Default is 15, max is 50. Makes for a lot less clicking....just saying.
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I did not know this!

 

[princedpw]

A win-win deal pulled out of a lose-lose situation.

Sounds like a good succinct summary to me.

 

[Bullfrog]

It's nonsense because it's arbitrary. It's a line drawn in the sand purely out of ego.

Going down to the wire isn't really a risk like it was in the stone ages of fax machines. Probably it was a simple phone call to the league office to say "we have a deal in place." More likely, the deal was already at the office and they just had to say "done."

Not out of ego -- to give yourself options.  Far from arbitrary.  And you missed it, the phones went down in the hypothetical.

It's arbitrary if they say "sign by this time or we move on". These lines are simply not drawn. They may have an internal line where they decide to pursue other options, but continuing to negotiate with the player will always be one of those options.

 

[dappleganger]

Oh and forgot this, once you see what Marner will get (even with the home discount), this deal will look like a steal.  Matthews will be in for 12-13 for sure.

Put the cap at $84m next year.
Marleau's 6.25 = 7.4%
Willy N's 6.69 =    8%
Tavares's 11m = 13.1%
Marner's 9.5m* = 11.3%
Auston's 12.5m = 14.9%

That's almost 55% of the cap tied up in 5 forwards, one of whom isn't really a good top 6 option anymore...

While I agree Willy might not be top 6 on this Leafs team, I think we should actually let him play a game this season before making such bold proclamations.

 

[herman]

https://theathletic.com/688914/2018/12/02/lebrun-which-side-won-the-nylander-deal-nhl-executives-and-agents-on-the-impact-on-the-market/

?Short term it was good for both, but the (July 2, 2019) bonus makes me think we may see a trade after that is paid,? said an Eastern Conference team executive on Sunday.

I'm guessing Dorion or Tallon here.

Yes, this means Nylander's front-loaded deal means a lower actual payout in the back half relative to the cap hit, which is highly attractive to budget teams, but I see this as a concession to Nylander signing to an average dollar amount barely under 7M. Money today is worth more than tomorrow and all that. Similar to the Tavares deal, the heavy signing bonus has more earning potential to offset the lowered cap hit.

I suspect Matthews will get something signing bonus heavy as well to entice a mid-season signing, well inadvance of the new CBA which will most assuredly want to curtail this advantage.

I like the 6 year term as well -- not so much for how much the Leafs have to spend on the follow-up, but because when they extend Willy again, he'll just be 28. Another six year deal would still be south of 35 years old, and Nylander doesn't play a style conducive to the kind of wear and tear that would shorten a career. Michael Nylander played NHL hockey until 35ish and played another decade+ of European league hockey.

 

[Kin]

The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

 

[ZBBM]

https://theathletic.com/688914/2018/12/02/lebrun-which-side-won-the-nylander-deal-nhl-executives-and-agents-on-the-impact-on-the-market/

?Short term it was good for both, but the (July 2, 2019) bonus makes me think we may see a trade after that is paid,? said an Eastern Conference team executive on Sunday.

I'm guessing Dorion or Tallon here.

Maybe there will be a 29 trade once the Matthews/Marner numbers come in, but not until.  If at all.

And why would they trade him, in strictly hockey terms?  The only thing I would think could trigger that is if the D gets shredded in the playoffs and they conclude that there won't be a Cup w/o an upgrade there.

 

[herman]

Maybe there will be a 29 trade once the Matthews/Marner numbers come in, but not until.  If at all.

And why would they trade him, in strictly hockey terms?  The only thing I would think could trigger that is if the D gets shredded in the playoffs and they conclude that there won't be a Cup w/o an upgrade there.

Trading Nylander is the stupidest idea for the Leafs because Kadri's deal is up in 4 years at age 32, and Naz is not getting anything else from us at that point. Nylander is the built-in replacement.

 

[herman]

The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

Nylander's deal is basically the new Kadri deal. He's going to outperform this valuation immediately.

 

[sickbeast]

The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

Nylander's deal is basically the new Kadri deal. He's going to outperform this valuation immediately.

That has yet to be seen.  He has missed all of training camp and 25% of the season at this point.  It's going to take him some time to get up and running and even then things will never be the same.  He has missed all that time playing with his linemates.  All that time when he should have been learning Babcock's systems and strategies.  Remember he did only score 20 goals last season and he has missed 1/4 of the season now.  What does that extrapolate to, 15 goals this season?  Kapanen already had 10 the last time I checked.

I think over the long haul this contract will be fine but this season Nylander made off like a bandit.  Some kind of crazy insane signing bonus that made the contract work out to a $7.5 million AAV with only a ~$7 million cap hit after this season.  This was financial wizardry from Dubas and the Leafs.  Nylander got most of what he wanted and the Leafs flexed their financial muscle and kept the deal reasonable cap wise.

What I am wondering is, what happens if Matthews pulls a Nylander next season?  Or Marner?

 

[Kaberle15]

What I am wondering is, what happens if Matthews pulls a Nylander next season?  Or Marner?

The real problem is the 1st year cap hit if they hold out. Those extensions should be the top priority, a hell of front loaded contract like Tavares and Nylander in the 88 x 8 for Matthews and 80 x 8 for Marner. I would also give Matthews the C to sweet it up.

In no scenario the Leafs can afford a hold out next season.

 

[Bender]

The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

Nylander's deal is basically the new Kadri deal. He's going to outperform this valuation immediately.

That has yet to be seen.  He has missed all of training camp and 25% of the season at this point.  It's going to take him some time to get up and running and even then things will never be the same.  He has missed all that time playing with his linemates.  All that time when he should have been learning Babcock's systems and strategies.  Remember he did only score 20 goals last season and he has missed 1/4 of the season now.  What does that extrapolate to, 15 goals this season?  Kapanen already had 10 the last time I checked.

I think over the long haul this contract will be fine but this season Nylander made off like a bandit.  Some kind of crazy insane signing bonus that made the contract work out to a $7.5 million AAV with only a ~$7 million cap hit after this season.  This was financial wizardry from Dubas and the Leafs.  Nylander got most of what he wanted and the Leafs flexed their financial muscle and kept the deal reasonable cap wise.

What I am wondering is, what happens if Matthews pulls a Nylander next season?  Or Marner?

Matthews is willing to sign a deal now. I don't see why the team doesn't consider him their McDavid and give him what he's looking for. I don't see this being a contentious negotiation.

Marner on the other hand.... Who knows. Technically any young talent can do what Nylander did now that the precedent has been set. But some players seem to be more flexible and would rather bet on themselves and take a 2-3yr bridge deal a la Subban/Kucherov and then take a longer deal afterward for more than what Nylander got AAV. We shall see....

 

[Peter D.]

Glad this was resolved and finally over with.  But seeing in the end how it played out, can't help but think this could have been resolved three months ago with no need for this b.s.  And Nylander is no worse for wear finally from this dispute.  He did well and his agent deserves a little extra something as a result.

Really happy to have Nylander back in the fold.

 

[princedpw]

The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

Nylander's deal is basically the new Kadri deal. He's going to outperform this valuation immediately.

That has yet to be seen.  He has missed all of training camp and 25% of the season at this point.  It's going to take him some time to get up and running and even then things will never be the same.  He has missed all that time playing with his linemates.  All that time when he should have been learning Babcock's systems and strategies.  Remember he did only score 20 goals last season and he has missed 1/4 of the season now.  What does that extrapolate to, 15 goals this season?  Kapanen already had 10 the last time I checked.

I?m just not that worried.  Guys miss chunks of games all the time and come back ? most frequently due to injuries.  Eg, Matthews missed 14 games? Nylander will miss 30?

Sure, it may take a month before he is back in complete synch with his line mates. That doesn?t seem like the end of the world given the way the team is playing.  There is plenty of time for him to ramp up for the playoffs.

 

[cabber24]

I am happy with the deal. We're 19-8 and got him signed for 6 years under $7M. Life is good.

I blame the Oilers for the delay, stupid Draisaitl deal.