Official Armchair GM Thread 2015-2016

[herman]

There must be more to this because it doesn't make any sense that the Avs wouldn't invest here.

They need this guy, or someone just like him.

Patrick Roy is, well, kind of an idiot.

Was just about to say that.

 

[Kin]

There must be more to this because it doesn't make any sense that the Avs wouldn't invest here.

They need this guy, or someone just like him.

Maybe but if they have to sign him and Nathan Mackinnon to big deals this off-season then the Avs could find themselves in a situation with very little in the way of cap space and a not very good team.

 

[TBLeafer]

Sadly, there's nothing that really makes sense for the Leafs to acquire another smallish, scoring, offensive RHD. 

 

[Joe S.]

Would you trade Pittsburgh's pick back to them for fleury?

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Would you trade Pittsburgh's pick back to them for fleury?

No, they're going to lose either him or Murray, there is no way I pay that price.

There are a lot of goaltending options on the horizon due to the expansion draft.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

No, they're going to lose either him or Murray, there is no way I pay that price.

There are a lot of goaltending options on the horizon due to the expansion draft.

It's very, very unlikely that they actually go into the expansion draft with both on their roster.

 

[bustaheims]

Would you trade Pittsburgh's pick back to them for fleury?

No. I'd rather take the gamble that the player the Leafs take with the pick could be a quality contributor for longer than Fleury will be. He'll be 32 early next season. Realistically, that means he has 3-5 years left as a quality starter. He'd be a longer-term stop gap for the Leafs, and that's not worth sacrificing a 1st round pick for.

 

[bustaheims]

There are a lot of goaltending options on the horizon due to the expansion draft.

People have been saying that, but, I took a look into it not that long ago, and there are a going to be a lot more teams looking for improvements in net than there will be quality goalies available. Really, it's one of the goalies in Anaheim, Grubauer, and maybe Murray or Vasilevsky, depending on what Pittsburgh does with Fleury, and whether the Lightning sign an extension with Bishop. Everyone else who could shake loose is either older, or a prospect of questionable value.

Meanwhile, I counted at 8-10 teams who could very well be looking for an upgrade in net by the time the expansion draft rolls around.

 

[TBLeafer]

I also think the expansion draft is a good reason why the Leafs keep the contracts of Lupul and Bozak around that have 2 years left on their term.

 

[bustaheims]

I also think the expansion draft is a good reason why the Leafs keep the contracts of Lupul and Bozak around that have 2 years left on their term.

At this point, if there's an expansion draft, it's only going to be for one team, so the Leafs will only be at risk to lose one player. Also, keeping those guys around doesn't help the team in terms of who they can protect, so, really, there's not a ton of benefit to it. That being said, Lupul has little to no trade value at the moment, so, other than to free up some cap space, there's no benefit to moving him. Bozak, on the other hand, could return a quality asset - and with Kadri, Matthews, Nylander, Laich, etc., under contract for next season, he's also largely superfluous.

 

[TBLeafer]

I also think the expansion draft is a good reason why the Leafs keep the contracts of Lupul and Bozak around that have 2 years left on their term.

At this point, if there's an expansion draft, it's only going to be for one team, so the Leafs will only be at risk to lose one player. Also, keeping those guys around doesn't help the team in terms of who they can protect, so, really, there's not a ton of benefit to it. That being said, Lupul has little to no trade value at the moment, so, other than to free up some cap space, there's no benefit to moving him. Bozak, on the other hand, could return a quality asset - and with Kadri, Matthews, Nylander, Laich, etc., under contract for next season, he's also largely superfluous.

Oh I'm not saying I wouldn't like to see a good future asset or two for Bozak who is under contract at a good value.

But presently, There aren't many signed by the Leafs at this time beyond next season.  Players under ELC are exempt I believe.  Players with NMC's (Horton) are mandatory to protect. How many players again is each team required to shake loose?

Presently of the players the Leafs could shake loose, aren't the options currently limited to:

Rielly
Kadri
Gardiner
JVR
Komarov
Bozak
Lupul

And if he comes... Stamkos.

Those would be all the players we would have beyond next season, not signed or playing under ELC or NMC.

 

[bustaheims]

But presently, There aren't many signed by the Leafs at this time beyond next season.  Players under ELC are exempt I believe.  Players with NMC's (Horton) are mandatory to protect. How many players again is each team required to shake loose?

According to the details we have right now, players on ELC are not necessarily exempt - players with 2 or fewer seasons of professional experience are exempt (though, the league's definition of professional experience needs to be clarified). Players with NMCs must be protected, but there's been some talk about players with NMCs who are sidelined by career threatening/ending injuries are exempt from that provision - so, Horton may not need to be protect. There's also no stated minimum on players teams are required to expose (though, there has been in the past, and this could be something that hasn't been released/leaked). As things stand right now, if a team can protect every player it has under contract within the limits set by the league (7 forwards, 3 D, 1 goalie or 8 skaters and 1 goalie), then they're within their rights to do so. So, in theory, depending on how the league defines professional experience, the Leafs could protect every player they have under contract past the 16/17 season (assuming expansion is approved for the 17/18 season, of course). Unless, when the league announces it's plans on expansion, the include a minimum amount of players or cap that must be exposed, there's no reason to hold on to any player - and, realistically, even if they do, the Leafs could easily sign a couple depth UFAs to 2 year deals in order to leave them exposed.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

If a team is exceptionally young and most of their players meet the exemption of being first or second year pro, they might not be exposing much.

Of the guys who don't get an exemption, you must protect a player who has an NMC on a contract that goes past next season. (Per Bill Daly clarification yesterday)

Some of the guys the Leafs could expose, Bozak, Michalek, Greening, Lupul, Laich, Marincin, Bernier.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

JVR Kadri Komarov
Nylander Matthews Marner
Michalek Bozak Brown
Hyman Laich Soshnikov

Extra Fwds: Greening, Holland(RFA), Lupul, Leivo(RFA), Carrick(RFA),

Reilly - Marincin(RFA)
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Hunwick - Carrick(RFA)

Extra Dmen: Corrado(RFA), Percy(RFA), Loov, Harrington(RFA)

Bernier
Sparks(RFA)

I imagine when healthy Lupul will rotate into the lineup in favor of whichever rookie needs a rest. You can also protect the rookie line and feed them a diet of the other teams bottom six if you want, you have to imagine they?d devour the opposition.

What would be really crazy to me is if they send Matthews and Marner to the AHL and OHL respectively and just decide this season is going to be another tire fire so they can work on the D and G situation in the 2017 draft.

Looking at that team I think you have to be working really hard to trade veteran guys to clear room for what is coming. We also might see them walk away from one or two RFA?s who we might think still have value, just because of the waiver situation and the 50 contract limit.

I?d be very shocked if this isn?t the busiest summer in terms of player movement in at least a decade.

 

[bustaheims]

If a team is exceptionally young and most of their players meet the exemption of being first or second year pro, they might not be exposing much.

Of the guys who don't get an exemption, you must protect a player who has an NMC on a contract that goes past next season. (Per Bill Daly clarification yesterday)

Some of the guys the Leafs could expose, Bozak, Michalek, Greening, Lupul, Laich, Marincin, Bernier.

I suppose these players would technically have to be exposed, but, as they'll be pending UFAs who are unlikely to be re-signed, I'm not sure they're necessarily worth mentioning.

 

[Al14]

JVR Kadri Komarov
Nylander Matthews Marner
Michalek Bozak Brown
Hyman Laich Soshnikov

Extra Fwds: Greening, Holland(RFA), Lupul, Leivo(RFA), Carrick(RFA),

Reilly - Marincin(RFA)
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Hunwick - Carrick(RFA)

Extra Dmen: Corrado(RFA), Percy(RFA), Loov, Harrington(RFA)

Bernier
Sparks(RFA)

I imagine when healthy Lupul will rotate into the lineup in favor of whichever rookie needs a rest. You can also protect the rookie line and feed them a diet of the other teams bottom six if you want, you have to imagine they?d devour the opposition.

What would be really crazy to me is if they send Matthews and Marner to the AHL and OHL respectively and just decide this season is going to be another tire fire so they can work on the D and G situation in the 2017 draft.

Looking at that team I think you have to be working really hard to trade veteran guys to clear room for what is coming. We also might see them walk away from one or two RFA?s who we might think still have value, just because of the waiver situation and the 50 contract limit.

I?d be very shocked if this isn?t the busiest summer in terms of player movement in at least a decade.

Likely, if true, it'll all start at the draft.  The availability of Stamkos could generate a lot of the player movement alone.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

If a team is exceptionally young and most of their players meet the exemption of being first or second year pro, they might not be exposing much.

Of the guys who don't get an exemption, you must protect a player who has an NMC on a contract that goes past next season. (Per Bill Daly clarification yesterday)

Some of the guys the Leafs could expose, Bozak, Michalek, Greening, Lupul, Laich, Marincin, Bernier.

I suppose these players would technically have to be exposed, but, as they'll be pending UFAs who are unlikely to be re-signed, I'm not sure they're necessarily worth mentioning.

Of course, my point kinda being that a team is under no obligation to make players of a certain "value" available.

I imagine 75%+ of the people available in the expansion draft will be guys with middling value, young guys that are borderline prospects but have pro experience and then a bunch of pretty poor contracts.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

One other note, I read from a fairly reliable source on twitter that Colin Smith, who the Leafs received in the Shawn Matthias deal was drafted in the KHL. Dynamo Moscow then traded for his rights from the drafting team and paid a decent price to do so.  You have to imagine they'll be offering him a contract that will pay significantly more than he'd be offered as an RFA in Toronto. He will probably play in Russia I'd imagine given the logjam of forwards the Leafs have in their system.

It's a shame because he looked pretty good from the little I saw of him on the Marlies, small guy but has great offensive instincts. He could have been a guy who was one of the first handful of injury callups and he could have surprised a few people.

 

[bustaheims]

I?d be very shocked if this isn?t the busiest summer in terms of player movement in at least a decade.

I think there's potential for a busy summer, but I also think the impact of the expansion draft is being overstated. Teams can only lose one player, and with the ability to protect 7 F, 3D, and a G in addition to the 1st and 2nd year pro exemptions, there are a number of teams who are likely already pretty set there. There's also maybe a dozen or so potential UFAs that teams may feel compelled to protect.

However, the weak UFA market and the cap not increasing significantly could very well spur some more movement.

 

[TBLeafer]

If a team is exceptionally young and most of their players meet the exemption of being first or second year pro, they might not be exposing much.

Of the guys who don't get an exemption, you must protect a player who has an NMC on a contract that goes past next season. (Per Bill Daly clarification yesterday)

Some of the guys the Leafs could expose, Bozak, Michalek, Greening, Lupul, Laich, Marincin, Bernier.

I suppose these players would technically have to be exposed, but, as they'll be pending UFAs who are unlikely to be re-signed, I'm not sure they're necessarily worth mentioning.

I was about to say the same, unless, say Bernier can restore a seasonal performance like 2013/14.