Official Ottawa Senators Thread

[Coco-puffs]

The sens have done a lot of dumb things lately but keeping this pick might top all of them.

I'm not so sure. True, the Senators don't look like they're going to be very good next year but the league is so volatile that even before you get into lottery stuff I don't think anyone could say with any kind of certainty that they'll be bottom five next year.

Unless they're legitimately tanking then all it would really take is a bounce back year from Karlsson and Anderson for them to be no worse off than they were last year.

I'm not saying it's a sure thing but I'd honestly peg it as an even money bet.

And I'd just add to this and say that with all the bad press lately, picking a nice prospect might be something they need right now.

During the season, depending on how things are going, they may be able to pick up a high pick with some creative trades.

I think their fanbase would go bananas right now if they gave this year's pick to Colorado, when combined with the uncertainty around Karlsson.

I really think they should give this year's pick to Colorado and keep the 2019 pick.  If the Sens are a disaster again next season (which it looks like they will be especially if Karlsson is gone), they'll have another shot at #1 overall next year which is #1 center Jack Hughes (the next Auston Matthews)

At best, they have an 18.5% chance at getting the #1 pick next year.  That assumes they finish dead last.  They would still have a better chance of picking 4th next year than picking in the lottery if they finished last next year, which is no guarantee itself (although most would probably bet that's where they'd finish).

 

[Bates]

How does next year's top 5 or 6 compare to this years number 4 prospect?  I think it's favorable to keep next year's as there is a possibility to picking 1st.

The sens have done a lot of dumb things lately but keeping this pick might top all of them.

I'm not so sure. True, the Senators don't look like they're going to be very good next year but the league is so volatile that even before you get into lottery stuff I don't think anyone could say with any kind of certainty that they'll be bottom five next year.

Unless they're legitimately tanking then all it would really take is a bounce back year from Karlsson and Anderson for them to be no worse off than they were last year.

I'm not saying it's a sure thing but I'd honestly peg it as an even money bet.

And I'd just add to this and say that with all the bad press lately, picking a nice prospect might be something they need right now.

During the season, depending on how things are going, they may be able to pick up a high pick with some creative trades.

I think their fanbase would go bananas right now if they gave this year's pick to Colorado, when combined with the uncertainty around Karlsson.

I really think they should give this year's pick to Colorado and keep the 2019 pick.  If the Sens are a disaster again next season (which it looks like they will be especially if Karlsson is gone), they'll have another shot at #1 overall next year which is #1 center Jack Hughes (the next Auston Matthews)

At best, they have an 18.5% chance at getting the #1 pick next year.  That assumes they finish dead last.  They would still have a better chance of picking 4th next year than picking in the lottery if they finished last next year, which is no guarantee itself (although most would probably bet that's where they'd finish).

 

[bustaheims]

I'm not so sure. True, the Senators don't look like they're going to be very good next year but the league is so volatile that even before you get into lottery stuff I don't think anyone could say with any kind of certainty that they'll be bottom five next year.

Unless they're legitimately tanking then all it would really take is a bounce back year from Karlsson and Anderson for them to be no worse off than they were last year.

I'm not saying it's a sure thing but I'd honestly peg it as an even money bet.

I think their intentions with Karlsson combined with Karlsson's openness to sign a long-term deal are the ultimate driver of their decision here. If they don't expect him to be on the team next season or feel they're in a situation where they have to move him before he leaves as a free agent, I think the move is to give up this year's pick. Without Karlsson and Hoffman, even with a strong performance from an aging Anderson (he's 37, so, a bounce back year shouldn't be expected), they're likely a bottom 5 team. If Anderson doesn't rebound significantly, without those two key pieces, they're almost certainly one. They'd basically be giving up the #4 pick this year for will likely be a similar or better pick next year.

However, if Karlsson stays, the move is to hold on to this year's pick with the hope the team is at least somewhat better next season.

 

[Coco-puffs]

The sens have done a lot of dumb things lately but keeping this pick might top all of them.

I'm not so sure. True, the Senators don't look like they're going to be very good next year but the league is so volatile that even before you get into lottery stuff I don't think anyone could say with any kind of certainty that they'll be bottom five next year.

Unless they're legitimately tanking then all it would really take is a bounce back year from Karlsson and Anderson for them to be no worse off than they were last year.

I'm not saying it's a sure thing but I'd honestly peg it as an even money bet.

And I'd just add to this and say that with all the bad press lately, picking a nice prospect might be something they need right now.

During the season, depending on how things are going, they may be able to pick up a high pick with some creative trades.

I think their fanbase would go bananas right now if they gave this year's pick to Colorado, when combined with the uncertainty around Karlsson.

I really think they should give this year's pick to Colorado and keep the 2019 pick.  If the Sens are a disaster again next season (which it looks like they will be especially if Karlsson is gone), they'll have another shot at #1 overall next year which is #1 center Jack Hughes (the next Auston Matthews)

At best, they have an 18.5% chance at getting the #1 pick next year.  That assumes they finish dead last.  They would still have a better chance of picking 4th next year than picking in the lottery if they finished last next year, which is no guarantee itself (although most would probably bet that's where they'd finish).

Note, I was just mentioning the odds.  If their plan is to tank, its royally stupid to not give up this years pick.  Even if they were to finish 3rd last, they'd still have a 33.9% chance of improving their draft position from this year (ie Top 3 pick).  If the two teams worse than them win lottery spots, they maintain their 4th pick slot.  They'd drop to 5th overall if only one team wins a lottery spot (it happened this year).  They'd drop to 6th overall only if lottery ended up with 3 better teams winning the three spots, which I'd think is pretty unlikely.

Now, can they finish better than 3rd last?  Yes, but its probably unlikely- especially if they trade EK65.

 

[Kin]

I think their intentions with Karlsson combined with Karlsson's openness to sign a long-term deal are the ultimate driver of their decision here. If they don't expect him to be on the team next season or feel they're in a situation where they have to move him before he leaves as a free agent, I think the move is to give up this year's pick. Without Karlsson and Hoffman, even with a strong performance from an aging Anderson (he's 37, so, a bounce back year shouldn't be expected), they're likely a bottom 5 team. If Anderson doesn't rebound significantly, without those two key pieces, they're almost certainly one. They'd basically be giving up the #4 pick this year for will likely be a similar or better pick next year.

However, if Karlsson stays, the move is to hold on to this year's pick with the hope the team is at least somewhat better next season.

Point taken re: Anderson but the shorthand there could just be "if they get better goaltending" which honestly seems likely no matter who is in net.

With regards to Karlsson I think people are being quick to assume that if they trade Karlsson it'll be to focus on the future and stack prospects and picks. While that would probably be the smart thing to do, we have to remember we're dealing with Melnyk still. If they do decide to trade Karlsson(which may come at the deadline) I would be shocked if they did and didn't get immediate help or another shot at that top pick. 

Anyways, I think that regardless of their intentions the difference between finishing 3rd worst and finishing 7th worst can be so small(this year it was 6 points) that purely random chance can be the swing.

 

[Bates]

Wonder if the Sens could trade Karlsson to the Avs and recoup their 1st rounder plus more??  Avs need D and have plenty of young talent.

 

[louisstamos]

I thought about that, but do the Avs really need D, though?

They have Johnson and Barrie on the right (although he's been the source of trade rumours forever), and Zadorov and Girard on the left.  So, to me, their top-4 seems fine.

If Barrie goes the other way as part of the deal, then maybe that works.

 

[Bates]

I would upgrade that D if given the chance.  Their forwards are better than their D.

I thought about that, but do the Avs really need D, though?

They have Johnson and Barrie on the right (although he's been the source of trade rumours forever), and Zadorov and Girard on the left.  So, to me, their top-4 seems fine.

If Barrie goes the other way as part of the deal, then maybe that works.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/Prospects_Watch/status/1010162733562679297

Sounds like a well run organization.

 

[Kin]

I wonder what he means by hands-on in that sense? How hands on are Rogers and Bell? Or the Ilitchs? Or James Dolan?

 

[Bates]

It seems a little over the top for an Owner to be part of ordering pencils as suggested.  You hire people, give them the tools to be successful, and let them do it in any good organization.

I wonder what he means by hands-on in that sense? How hands on are Rogers and Bell? Or the Ilitchs? Or James Dolan?

 

[Kin]

It seems a little over the top for an Owner to be part of ordering pencils as suggested.  You hire people, give them the tools to be successful, and let them do it in any good organization.

Well, that certainly answers none of the questions I asked.

 

[Bates]

Your question, wonder what he means by hands on, was answered by ordering of pencils.  That's very hands on and I highly doubt the Head's of Bell, Roger's, The Illich's, or Dolan are involved in that.  Carolina might though??

It seems a little over the top for an Owner to be part of ordering pencils as suggested.  You hire people, give them the tools to be successful, and let them do it in any good organization.

Well, that certainly answers none of the questions I asked.

 

[Kin]

Your question, wonder what he means by hands on, was answered by ordering of pencils.  That's very hands on and I highly doubt the Head's of Bell, Roger's, The Illich's, or Dolan are involved in that.  Carolina might though??

No, I'm asking what he means by "hands on" to the degree that he says most owners are. Not Melnyk who he singles out as being overly so.

 

[Bates]

Somewhere above ordering of pencils.

Your question, wonder what he means by hands on, was answered by ordering of pencils.  That's very hands on and I highly doubt the Head's of Bell, Roger's, The Illich's, or Dolan are involved in that.  Carolina might though??

No, I'm asking what he means by "hands on" to the degree that he says most owners are. Not Melnyk who he singles out as being overly so.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The tweet pretty clearly says the pencil thing is a joke.

 

[Kin]

Somewhere above ordering of pencils.

Yes thank you.

So, once again, when Dreger says most owners are hands on...what does he mean by that? How hands on are most owners?

 

[Bates]

I highly doubt anyone posting here has the ability to actually answer that.

Somewhere above ordering of pencils.

Yes thank you.

So, once again, when Dreger says most owners are hands on...what does he mean by that? How hands on are most owners?

 

[Kin]

I highly doubt anyone posting here has the ability to actually answer that.

Yes. I suppose I'm inviting opinions on the matter. Crazy thing to do on a discussion board I know but, well, I've played by the rules for too long here. Time to get results.

 

[Bates]

IMO a weekly meeting with the President would be meddling under normal conditions.  An update on all major decisions is fine. Anything more involved than updating and a regular scheduled meeting to keep them abreast of results and updating expectations is meddling.  Getting into coaches decisions and office supplies would be too far for me if I was a President/GM. 

I highly doubt anyone posting here has the ability to actually answer that.

Yes. I suppose I'm inviting opinions on the matter. Crazy thing to do on a discussion board I know but, well, I've played by the rules for too long here. Time to get results.