Opening Forward Lines

[slapshot]

Could we see a new look in our top two lines opening day?
Is Kadri ready for a top line shot duty?
Could Leivo be a top six player?
Can Carrick make the team?

How about a group of forwards that looks like this?

JVR  Kadri. Kessel
Lupul Bozak Leivo
Booth Holland Frattin
Winnick Carrick Komarov

Santorelli / Clarkson

Clarkson obviously moves back in when healthy, which bumps someone out, but who. If Santorelli is in, where does he fit and who comes out

There are 8 pretty much guaranteed spots: Kessel, Lupul, JVR, Kadri, Bozak, Clarkson, Komarov, Winnick.

The leaves 6 fighting for 4 regular spots: Booth, Frattin, Santorelli, Holland, Leivo, Carrick.

This assuming any other forwards such Orr are out...

Some tough choices. Nice to see some of the Marlies creating real competition. What would you do?

 

[Bullfrog]

If Kadri goes up to the top line (and I think he should) I might consider dropping JvR to the second to spread out the scoring. Maybe:

Lupul-Kadri-Kessel
JvR-Bozak-Leivo/Clarkson

On the other hand, JvR and Kessel worked so well together, I'd be a bit hesitant to try it.

 

[TML fan]

its nice to see the dream of Bozak not being on the first line is still alive.

 

[freer]

If Kadri goes up to the top line (and I think he should) I might consider dropping JvR to the second to spread out the scoring. Maybe:

Lupul-Kadri-Kessel
JvR-Bozak-Leivo/Clarkson

On the other hand, JvR and Kessel worked so well together, I'd be a bit hesitant to try it.

How did Kadri, win the 1st line center job? Bozak had just as many points in the pre season in the first period of the game as Kadri has. He also was defensively awful in the OTT game. Just saying

 

[slapshot]

If Kadri goes up to the top line (and I think he should) I might consider dropping JvR to the second to spread out the scoring. Maybe:

Lupul-Kadri-Kessel
JvR-Bozak-Leivo/Clarkson

On the other hand, JvR and Kessel worked so well together, I'd be a bit hesitant to try it.

My thinking was it would keep JVR and Kessel together.
Lupul might have better chemistry with Bozak, as he had played with him and Kessel successfully in the past. Leivo might be a good fit on opposite wing. Would create a more natural 1-2 punch down the middle if Kadri is ready to take the next step.

 

[slapshot]

If Kadri goes up to the top line (and I think he should) I might consider dropping JvR to the second to spread out the scoring. Maybe:

Lupul-Kadri-Kessel
JvR-Bozak-Leivo/Clarkson

On the other hand, JvR and Kessel worked so well together, I'd be a bit hesitant to try it.

How did Kadri, win the 1st line center job? Bozak had just as many points in the pre season in the first period of the game as Kadri has. He also was defensively awful in the OTT game. Just saying

Didn't say he "won it", just saying what do they think of that possibility to try it. How is it any different than Carlyle moving JVR down and Lupul up. Just creating a different mix.

 

[Bender]

Carrick wouldn't be there over Santorelli

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Carrick wouldn't be there over Santorelli

Yeah, I'd add Santorelli to the locks list. It's just unknown if he'll be on the wing or down the middle.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't see Carrick or Leivo making the team if everyone is healthy enough to go by opening night. They'll be near the top of the list in terms of call ups, but, they should be starting the season with the Marlies. My guess is they go with Santorelli down the middle and Kontiola as the 13th forward.

 

[moon111]

If Kadri goes up to the top line (and I think he should) I might consider dropping JvR to the second to spread out the scoring. Maybe:

Lupul-Kadri-Kessel
JvR-Bozak-Leivo/Clarkson

On the other hand, JvR and Kessel worked so well together, I'd be a bit hesitant to try it.

As an opposing coach, I'd gladly throw my top line against Lupul, Kadri, and Kessel.

 

[Bullfrog]

Because your top line is good defensively?

 

[Kin]

If Kadri goes up to the top line (and I think he should) I might consider dropping JvR to the second to spread out the scoring. Maybe:

This may be something other people feel strongly about but do you really think that JVR brings more scoring, on his own, to a line than Lupul? I think they're more or less even. During JVR's time with the Leafs he's got 48 goals in 128 games or a .375 GPG rate. Lupul, in the same stretch, has 33 goals in 85 games or a .388 GPG rate.

That's not the fairest comparison but given that JVR's had the edge in terms of linemates and ice time in that stretch I'd maybe think that JVR's real value is in being a responsible defensive presence to match with Kessel and Kadri while Lupul is a comparable scorer who would be helped by Bozak in that same respect.

 

[Stickytape]

It's a minor consideration, but JVR also screens-in a lot of goals. Those don't show up on his stats, but they're essentially phantom assists.

 

[Kin]

It's a minor consideration, but JVR also screens-in a lot of goals. Those don't show up on his stats, but they're essentially phantom assists.

I think all players do things while they're on the ice that contribute to goals that they don't get points on. The extent to which JVR does that to a significantly greater degree I wouldn't be able to say but I think all players, at times, screen the net.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

If Kadri goes up to the top line (and I think he should) I might consider dropping JvR to the second to spread out the scoring. Maybe:

Lupul-Kadri-Kessel
JvR-Bozak-Leivo/Clarkson

On the other hand, JvR and Kessel worked so well together, I'd be a bit hesitant to try it.

How did Kadri, win the 1st line center job? Bozak had just as many points in the pre season in the first period of the game as Kadri has. He also was defensively awful in the OTT game. Just saying

Preseason points are worth about as much as Schrute-bucks.

 

[Bullfrog]

If Kadri goes up to the top line (and I think he should) I might consider dropping JvR to the second to spread out the scoring. Maybe:

This may be something other people feel strongly about but do you really think that JVR brings more scoring, on his own, to a line than Lupul? I think they're more or less even. During JVR's time with the Leafs he's got 48 goals in 128 games or a .375 GPG rate. Lupul, in the same stretch, has 33 goals in 85 games or a .388 GPG rate.

That's not the fairest comparison but given that JVR's had the edge in terms of linemates and ice time in that stretch I'd maybe think that JVR's real value is in being a responsible defensive presence to match with Kessel and Kadri while Lupul is a comparable scorer who would be helped by Bozak in that same respect.

I'm not sure. My opinion isn't based on anything tangible, but I get the hunch that Lupul will be trending down in terms of offensive production and JvR is trending up.

As you've noted, it's difficult to determine if that's a result of JvR's increased time with Kessel both in even strength and PP. JvR also doesn't a large enough body of work to make any strong predictions.

In the end, they're probably close enough it doesn't make a difference.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm not sure. My opinion isn't based on anything tangible, but I get the hunch that Lupul will be trending down in terms of offensive production and JvR is trending up.

As you've noted, it's difficult to determine if that's a result of JvR's increased time with Kessel both in even strength and PP. JvR also doesn't a large enough body of work to make any strong predictions.

In the end, they're probably close enough it doesn't make a difference.

Last season JVR scored 61 points playing basically exclusively with Kessel both at EV and on the PP. Lupul was on pace to score 52 points last season. Kadri was his centre for just over 50% of his EV ice-time and his opposite winger rotated between Clarkson, Raymond, and Kulemin. He also primarily played on the 2nd powerplay unit, again without Kessel.

Now, I think JVR is a fantastic player in his own right. I don't think he's being carried by Kessel like I would say Bozak is. But I think JVR clearly had a huge offensive advantage playing with Kessel last season, and Lupul was able to keep that points gap pretty darn close. I think that gap would have been larger in Lupul's favour if they swapped spots last season. And this is all just from an offensive standpoint. JVR is clearly the much better defensive player, it's not even close there.

 

[Kin]

I think that gap would have been larger in Lupul's favour if they swapped spots last season. And this is all just from an offensive standpoint. JVR is clearly the much better defensive player, it's not even close there.

Just to be clear I'm not saying otherwise. I agree JVR is the better overall player. I just was saying that if you're trying not to bunch all of your best scoring together JVR and Lupul are neck and neck.

 

[freer]

I think that gap would have been larger in Lupul's favour if they swapped spots last season. And this is all just from an offensive standpoint. JVR is clearly the much better defensive player, it's not even close there.

Just to be clear I'm not saying otherwise. I agree JVR is the better overall player. I just was saying that if you're trying not to bunch all of your best scoring together JVR and Lupul are neck and neck.

IMO if Lupul stays health the whole season, he can give JVR a run for his money pts wise. Just pts. I think that JVR has other qualities that Lupul does not have, like playing defensive.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

As you've noted, it's difficult to determine if that's a result of JvR's increased time with Kessel both in even strength and PP.

Was kind of surprised by this, but at ES last season JVR only played :28 more per game than Lupul.  At PP it was :42 more, which isn't surprising.  Thought there would have been a bigger gap at ES without looking at it.