Overpaid Leafs

[Britishbulldog]

I don't think Kessel is overpaid.

'87 Kessel 5-10 178lbs $5.4 MIL  13/14
82  32  32  64  -20  24pims

'86 Kulemin 6-1  225lbs  $2.35 MIL  11/12
82  30  27  57  +7  26pims

'84 Grabovski 5-10 180lbs $2.9 MIL 12/13
81  29  29  58  +14  60pims

How much is hard hitting, defensively responsible, high scoring Kulemin worth next summer?  Grabovski the following center?  I believe that both are more complete players than Kessel.

 

[nutman]

I don't think Kessel is overpaid.

'87 Kessel 5-10 178lbs $5.4 MIL  13/14
82  32  32  64  -20  24pims

'86 Kulemin 6-1  225lbs  $2.35 MIL  11/12
82  30  27  57  +7  26pims

'84 Grabovski 5-10 180lbs $2.9 MIL 12/13
81  29  29  58  +14  60pims

How much is hard hitting, defensively responsible, high scoring Kulemin worth next summer?  Grabovski the following center?  I believe that both are more complete players than Kessel.

I believe these two will set
Burke back a few coins. Kulemin more so.

 

[moon111]

Leaf's most overpaid contract?  Darcy Tucker.  JFJ lives on.

Komisarek's contract raises expectations too high.  If he was a 4th defenseman, getting
paid as such, he's gold.  Hope he continues to play under the radar with the occasional
destruction of opponents and not go all overboard.

Pretty much very happy with Brian Burke's contract negotiations. 

 

[Britishbulldog]

I don't think Kessel is overpaid.

'87 Kessel 5-10 178lbs $5.4 MIL  13/14
82  32  32  64  -20  24pims

'86 Kulemin 6-1  225lbs  $2.35 MIL  11/12
82  30  27  57  +7  26pims

'84 Grabovski 5-10 180lbs $2.9 MIL 11/12
81  29  29  58  +14  60pims

How much is hard hitting, defensively responsible, high scoring Kulemin worth next summer?  Grabovski the following summer?  I believe that both are more complete players than Kessel.

I actually messed up the dates on Grabovski.  He is also done this year.  Even if Kulemin and Grabovski only match last years numbers I can't see them getting less than Lupul's $4.3 MIL especially with what they bring as players compared to Kessel.

Next summer Toronto has $20 MIL in cap space and that is without Schenn's contract which I can't see being less than $3.5 MIL especially when rugged defensive defenceman Orpik makes $3.75 MIL.

So my estimation is with $20 MIL the Leafs need to account for:
Schenn $3.75
Kulemin $4.5 rfa
Grabovski $4.5 ufa
That is $12.75 MIL before any other free agents are re-signed that are decent

Liles $4.0 ufa (or is he traded to make room for Gardiner $1.1 MIL)
Gustavsson $1.8?? ufa (Reimer deal)
Franson $2.5??  rfa (Anton Babchuk deal)
Aulie $2.5??  rfa
Frattin $1.5?? rfa (Bozak deal?

Equals $21 MIL without Liles or Gardiner.

That means we could possibly be at the Cap ceiling which I would have expected to translate into Stanley Cup contender.  INSTEAD the Leafs are without an elite center (or even forward), no proven goalie and missing the playoffs for 6 years.

Having such a high payroll and no playoffs makes me assume that some players somewhere on the Leafs payroll HAVE TO BE overpaid.

 

[Bullfrog]

What is your point? 

Kessel was 36th in league scoring last season.
Kessel's contract doesn't even put him in the top 50 highest paid players in the league.

Maybe you're suggesting the entire Leafs roster is overpaid since we don't have any players in the top 20 in scoring?  So the Leafs should have a team at the cap floor since we haven't made the playoffs in 6 seasons.

I'd bet that many of the players higher than Kessel in contract value are more complete players.

 

[nutman]

I don't think Kessel is overpaid.

'87 Kessel 5-10 178lbs $5.4 MIL  13/14
82  32  32  64  -20  24pims

'86 Kulemin 6-1  225lbs  $2.35 MIL  11/12
82  30  27  57  +7  26pims

'84 Grabovski 5-10 180lbs $2.9 MIL 11/12
81  29  29  58  +14  60pims

How much is hard hitting, defensively responsible, high scoring Kulemin worth next summer?  Grabovski the following summer?  I believe that both are more complete players than Kessel.

I actually messed up the dates on Grabovski.  He is also done this year.  Even if Kulemin and Grabovski only match last years numbers I can't see them getting less than Lupul's $4.3 MIL especially with what they bring as players compared to Kessel.

Next summer Toronto has $20 MIL in cap space and that is without Schenn's contract which I can't see being less than $3.5 MIL especially when rugged defensive defenceman Orpik makes $3.75 MIL.

So my estimation is with $20 MIL the Leafs need to account for:
Schenn $3.75
Kulemin $4.5 rfa
Grabovski $4.5 ufa
That is $12.75 MIL before any other free agents are re-signed that are decent

Liles $4.0 ufa (or is he traded to make room for Gardiner $1.1 MIL)
Gustavsson $1.8?? ufa (Reimer deal)
Franson $2.5??  rfa (Anton Babchuk deal)
Aulie $2.5??  rfa
Frattin $1.5?? rfa (Bozak deal?

Equals $21 MIL without Liles or Gardiner.

That means we could possibly be at the Cap ceiling which I would have expected to translate into Stanley Cup contender.  INSTEAD the Leafs are without an elite center (or even forward), no proven goalie and missing the playoffs for 6 years.

Having such a high payroll and no playoffs makes me assume that some players somewhere on the Leafs payroll HAVE TO BE overpaid.

lololololol...

 

[hockeyfan1]

If none of them perform well this season, then they'll all be considered overpaid!  ;D

 

[slapshot]

I prefer to look at it more from a team/management perspective. A team's on-ice performance should be a reflection of payroll. In theory, a team spending $60-64 million in payroll should be at the upper end of the standings, while a team spending $48-$50 million should be near the bottom.  For example, you would think, again in theory, you should get better performance out of a line of forwards that make say $12 million between versus another lines that makes $9 million. A million more per forward should render better results.
Of course, in practice it never works out this way, $3 million guys end up with better years than $4 million guys.  Coaching, injuries, goaltending, all sorts of factors come into play.
So I  think the biggest thing is finding consistency. $4 million guys that perform like $4 million, $5 million like $5 million, $1 million like $1 million, so on.
If the team optimizes its value of out each asset consistently, has solid coaching and chemistry on and off the ice, it should perform according to its spending habits.

 

[slapshot]

Just a bit more on this. Look at this link

http://www.capgeek.com/charts_index.php

The best and worse managed from a spending perspective would include:

Best
Boston $58 million, 17th in spending, won cup Stanley Cup
Nashville $48 million, 27th in spending, made playoffs

Worst
Calgary, $62 million, 4th in spending, missed playoffs
Buffalo, $67 million 1st in spending, barely made playoffs (much of their spending has been recently added), so this may not be entirely fair. We will see what this year yields.

 

[Omallley]

Just a bit more on this. Look at this link

http://www.capgeek.com/charts_index.php

The best and worse managed from a spending perspective would include:

Best
Boston $58 million, 17th in spending, won cup Stanley Cup
Nashville $48 million, 27th in spending, made playoffs

Worst
Calgary, $62 million, 4th in spending, missed playoffs
Buffalo, $67 million 1st in spending, barely made playoffs (much of their spending has been recently added), so this may not be entirely fair. We will see what this year yields.

This is definitely flawed logic, because (as you sort of recognize), you are using last year's results and compare to next year's cap hits. FWIW, Boston had the 2nd highest cap hit in the league last season, and were 1.13M over the cap due to bonuses, which will get tacked onto their cap for this season.

 

[slapshot]

Fair enough. I hadn't realized the Bruins had shifted that much, but knew the Sabres had. Actually, the fact that the Bruins were second highest and won the Cup actually more supports my point that if you spend high, and manage well, you should have good success.

 

[slapshot]

I think almost all of the players have the potential to earn their salaries or at least come close...except Komisarek. Man what a dud.

Phaneuf is definitely in the 'come close' category.  We saw a guy who looked like a $5-5.5M guy for a few stretches when he was healthy but only glimpses of what you should be getting for $6.5M (for example that overtime play).

If Phaneuf, can stay on track with the way he played the final 20 games or so, $6.5 million would be about right for him. By comparison, others of $6 million, or more, in salary for this year.

$10 m Erhoff (heavily front loaded salary)
8.5 Chara
8 Keith
7.6 Pronger
7.5 Weber
7.1 Campbell
7 Bieksa
7 Seabrook
7 Wisnewski
6.6 Boumeister
6.6 Boyle
6.5 Phanuef
6.5 Redden (talk about overpayment)
6.2 Lidstrom (Red Wing discount)
6 Erat

Of that group only Chara, Weber and Keith I would say are for sure more valuable in terms of age, salary and potential. I think the rest is debatable. Of course, I am comparing the Phanuef that was rounding into form late season, not the one that took a while to get adjusted because of new environment, role and injuries.