Phil Kessel and trade value

[Kin]

When was the last time someone ended the year 1st in the NHL in goals and 3rd last in +/-?

When was the last time a player led the league in goals playing with two linemates who combined to score only 26 goals?

I think what you're missing here is that you seem primarily focused on the raw number of Ovechkin's +/-(despite saying it should only be seen in a team context) and what people are trying to steer you towards is that the team effect on Ovechkin's +/- was great enough to make up the difference between -35, which is unusual, and a more normal year for a good offensive player on a bad team getting very little help. Like, say, Phil Kessel at -20(2nd worst on the team) in 2010-2011.

 

[2badknees]

Even if you take the stat with a gigantic grain of salt... something is fishy there. And I don't want it near my team.

Agreed. One can argue a phone book's worth of stats to the contrary, but I've watched hundreds of Caps games, and just like Kessel, Ovechkin is nowhere near a complete player, and shouldn't be considered a tier 1.

 

[pmrules]

I wouldn't do a 1 for 1 trade for any winger - Ovechkin, Perry, and Kane are the only 3 I would consider and none make this team any better or any different (some could argue it could make it worse from a cap perspective).

I don't get the turning on Ovechkin. He's scored 83 goals the last two years compared to 57 for Kessel. That's not a small difference.

Yes...agreed...I'm not arguing that.  I made my arguments without looking at a single stat, but looking at the Leafs in general. 

My argument is yes, Ovechkin is a better player...but does flipping PK for OV or Kane or Perry take this currently constructed Leafs team to next level?  More than a First line center would or a 1st pairing dman?  My personal opinion is I don't think so - I would rather Kessel go for one of those key pieces (if anything).

And just for fun, using goals as the factor, does anyone think Ovechkin scores at the same rate in Toronto if he has Bozak as his First Line Centre as opposed to Backstrom, and that Kessel's goal numbers wouldn't increase with Backstrom?  My personal thought is that both Ovechkin and Kessel  would probably both end up in the ~40-45 goal range (down for OV and up for Kessel).

 

[Kin]

And just for fun, using goals as the factor, does anyone think Ovechkin scores at the same rate in Toronto if he has Bozak as his First Line Centre as opposed to Backstrom, and that Kessel's goal numbers wouldn't increase with Backstrom?  My personal thought is that both Ovechkin and Kessel  would probably both end up in the ~40-45 goal range (down for OV and up for Kessel).

Ovechkin scored at a better rate than that as a 19 year old before Backstrom was on the team and likewise playing with some fairly nondescript centers so it seems pretty hard to imagine that he would drop to that level anywhere while in his prime. At this point you could just as easily say that playing with JVR over Johanssen would increase Ovechkin's numbers as anything.

 

[pmrules]

And just for fun, using goals as the factor, does anyone think Ovechkin scores at the same rate in Toronto if he has Bozak as his First Line Centre as opposed to Backstrom, and that Kessel's goal numbers wouldn't increase with Backstrom?  My personal thought is that both Ovechkin and Kessel  would probably both end up in the ~40-45 goal range (down for OV and up for Kessel).

Ovechkin scored at a better rate than that as a 19 year old before Backstrom was on the team and likewise playing with some fairly nondescript centers so it seems pretty hard to imagine that he would drop to that level anywhere while in his prime. At this point you could just as easily say that playing with JVR over Johanssen would increase Ovechkin's numbers as anything.

Now you are making me look up stats...

OV does have a more recent history of 32 and 38 goal seasons (one drop primarily due to Backstrom being hurt) so saying 40-45 isn't doing him a great disservice.

Let's talk about the Leafs -  does adding OV for PK significantly change the dynamic of this team?  I don't think the PP or first line goal scoring was a problem for this team until the last 20% of the season.  It was preventing goals/shots which was a problem all season.  OV, in my opinion, doesn't help with that...so yeah...go ahead and make that trade and we will likely score a few more goals, but I don't think it changes our teams fortunes a whole lot.

Just to be clear - OV is the better player with the better history and the better resume.  No arguments.  I just don't think our team is significantly different as opposed to trading Kessel for Weber/Pietrangelo etc etc.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

When was the last time someone ended the year 1st in the NHL in goals and 3rd last in +/-?

Even if you take the stat with a gigantic grain of salt... something is fishy there. And I don't want it near my team.

You must see that something is strange there though right? You can blame away some or even a lot of it. But think about this...
Since the N.H.L. started tracking players? plus/minus figures in 1967-68, Ovechkin is the only player to lead the league in goals with such a poor plus/minus rating.

So I guess all I can say is that for 1.5mil more per year. I wouldn't trade Kessel 1 - 1 for Ovi. Just my opinion of course.

But you're just dismissing those contextual factors like the ones mentioned in that post by Scott Cullen that I linked to.  He shows how the team's 5 on 5 SH% with him on the ice fell by 40% year-to-year, despite Ovechkin shooting 10% (again, this is in mid-February when Ovechkin was -17).  So Cullen says if the team had an average SH% with him on the ice of 8%, it's 7 more goals for at that time.  Suddenly, -17 might be -10.  For the 5 seasons previous the on-ice SH% with Ovechkin on has never been less than 8% until the time the article was published.

So Ovechkin's linemates were not doing much when he was on the ice, getting a poor SH%.  Then he looks at 5 on 5 SV%, which was .909 when Ovechkin was on the ice at the time of the article.  He says over the past 5 seasons the average SV% when Ovechkin has been on the ice was .922.  How do you explain the difference between those numbers?  Rather than he started doing something this past season to be that much worse defensively, a better thought would be that he was receiving some bad luck in that department and it is something you would expect to rebound to their typical levels.  Again, Cullen says that if Ovechkin was receiving the typical SV% over the past 5 years that would have resulted in 5-6 less goals against.  So his +/-, following on from above, would then look something like -5 or -4.  In other words, right around Phil Kessel's.

And that's ignoring the fact that Ovechkin is a +47 for his career, even with the -35 last season.

It's not about "blaming away" and it's what most people scream when +/- is relied on heavily like this - the context is extremely important.  Invariably the top +/- guys are almost solely from the best teams in the league/the best players in the league/play with the best players in the league - and all of those are contextual factors which don't even touch on the ones mentioned above by Scott Cullen.

In short, it's not fair to Ovechkin to simply cite his +/- and then when the context is presented say "well there's something fishy anyways."  To me, that's fishy player evaluation.

 

[losveratos]

When was the last time someone ended the year 1st in the NHL in goals and 3rd last in +/-?

Even if you take the stat with a gigantic grain of salt... something is fishy there. And I don't want it near my team.

You must see that something is strange there though right? You can blame away some or even a lot of it. But think about this...
Since the N.H.L. started tracking players? plus/minus figures in 1967-68, Ovechkin is the only player to lead the league in goals with such a poor plus/minus rating.

So I guess all I can say is that for 1.5mil more per year. I wouldn't trade Kessel 1 - 1 for Ovi. Just my opinion of course.

But you're just dismissing those contextual factors like the ones mentioned in that post by Scott Cullen that I linked to.  He shows how the team's 5 on 5 SH% with him on the ice fell by 40% year-to-year, despite Ovechkin shooting 10% (again, this is in mid-February when Ovechkin was -17).  So Cullen says if the team had an average SH% with him on the ice of 8%, it's 7 more goals for at that time.  Suddenly, -17 might be -10.  For the 5 seasons previous the on-ice SH% with Ovechkin on has never been less than 8% until the time the article was published.

So Ovechkin's linemates were not doing much when he was on the ice, getting a poor SH%.  Then he looks at 5 on 5 SV%, which was .909 when Ovechkin was on the ice at the time of the article.  He says over the past 5 seasons the average SV% when Ovechkin has been on the ice was .922.  How do you explain the difference between those numbers?  Rather than he started doing something this past season to be that much worse defensively, a better thought would be that he was receiving some bad luck in that department and it is something you would expect to rebound to their typical levels.  Again, Cullen says that if Ovechkin was receiving the typical SV% over the past 5 years that would have resulted in 5-6 less goals against.  So his +/-, following on from above, would then look something like -5 or -4.  In other words, right around Phil Kessel's.

And that's ignoring the fact that Ovechkin is a +47 for his career, even with the -35 last season.

It's not about "blaming away" and it's what most people scream when +/- is relied on heavily like this - the context is extremely important.  Invariably the top +/- guys are almost solely from the best teams in the league/the best players in the league/play with the best players in the league - and all of those are contextual factors which don't even touch on the ones mentioned above by Scott Cullen.

In short, it's not fair to Ovechkin to simply cite his +/- and then when the context is presented say "well there's something fishy anyways."  To me, that's fishy player evaluation.

If the people at the top of the +/- are from the best team, then why is the player on the team that came in 17th 3rd last in the league in +/-. Shouldn't it be the players from Buffalo, Florida or Edmonton? Those teams had a goal differential of -91, -72, and -67. Washington's was only a -5. Hell... Toronto was a -25 and none of our players are near his level of crazy.

Now I realize that how it shakes out across the team matters. There are 20ish other players responsible for the team goal differential. But even looking at his own team his line mates who were almost always on the ice with him were still 14 better in that stat. They're on the same line, playing mostly the same minutes... and he still somehow managed to get more than an extra dozen even strength goals against while he was on the ice.

Just to stress the point a little bit more. Buffalo as a team scored 157 goals. They allowed 248 goals. Their highest +/- on the team was a -29 and he got that while scoring a grand total of 1 goal and 8 assists. Ovechkin scored 51 goals and beat him to the bottom of the league!

Make whatever excuses you want. Work the numbers how you want. But there was obviously something wrong with Ovechkin last year.

Reading his teams forums for the people who watch him every day. They had a plethora of reasons, ranging from playing his off wing to the coaching system. Whatever it was, I hope the same mistakes aren't repeated next year because he'll find himself there again.

Coming back around a bit to the topics main idea. This team with Ovechkin instead of Kessel is not better in my opinion. At absolute best it's completely lateral due to losing 1.5mil in cap space in the exchange. He's also 2 years older and you're losing more of the prime years of the player comparatively.

*edit* I'd like to add that I would trade this years Kessel for Ovi from 2007 before you could finish asking me the question. Hell... all the way to 2009/2010 would be an easy trade. Just not the Ovi of today. Maybe this coming year he changes my mind. Just not this second.

 

[Kin]

Just to be clear - OV is the better player with the better history and the better resume.  No arguments.  I just don't think our team is significantly different as opposed to trading Kessel for Weber/Pietrangelo etc etc.

But that's all the question was. It's not about assuming any particular player is available, it's just whether or not you'd make the trade. The Leafs are indisputably a better team with Ovechkin just because he's a better player than Kessel. You could argue about whether or not he's better enough to justify the higher cap hit but, well, the guy has won 3 MVP's. I don't know if Kessel's ever received an MVP vote.

So, again, think of it as a descending list of trade value. Ovechkin might be higher than Kessel but that doesn't mean Ovechkin is higher than Weber or whoever else. Saying you'd trade Kessel for Ovechkin doesn't preclude that being true of a lot of other players.

 

[Rebel_1812]

Ov pretty much admitted this year he played different.  In one of the post season interviews they were asking him about defensive play.  He responded that he got hound by the press when Dale Hunter was there and he played defense yet only got 30 goals.  He further went on to say that he is paid to score goals and that is what he did.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Ov pretty much admitted this year he played different.  In one of the post season interviews they were asking him about defensive play.  He responded that he got hound by the press when Dale Hunter was there and he played defense yet only got 30 goals.  He further went on to say that he is paid to score goals and that is what he did.

I much preferred the flashy Ovechkin of the early years where every goal he scored was pretty much a celebration.

His style changed somewhat (with attention more on being defensive) but Ovechkin, like Kessel, is primarily a goal-scorer first and foremostly.  When a player's style is changed according to what the coaching staff would like him to improve upon, sometimes the improvement can actually be a detriment.  Ovechkin didn't win those MVPs on defensive merit.

Kessel for Ovechkin (regardless of age differences)?  No, thank you.

The way I see it, we already have our Ovechkin albeit a much quiet one (in terms of personality).  His name is Kessel.

 

[Highlander]

Well said HockeyFan1. How the hell did this thread get started?  Must be a real boring summer.

 

[Kin]

His style changed somewhat (with attention more on being defensive) but Ovechkin, like Kessel, is primarily a goal-scorer first and foremostly.

Yeah, the difference being Ovechkin is a significantly better goal scorer. Like I said, Ovechkin scored 83 goals to Kessels 57 the last two years. So the difference between Ovechkin and Kessel in terms of goal scoring is the equivalent to the difference between Kessel and someone who would have scored 31 goals over the last two years. You know who scored 31 goals the last two years? Tyler Bozak.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Sorry guys, but not trading Kessel for Ovechkin is pretty much the homer-ist thing you can do. He's a top-5 player in the NHL and one of the games all-time best goal scorers.

 

[Bullfrog]

Sorry guys, but not trading Kessel for Ovechkin is pretty much the homer-ist thing you can do. He's a top-5 player in the NHL and one of the games all-time best goal scorers.

No kidding. Kessel's an excellent goal-scorer, but his career high is 37, which he's hit twice. There is only one season where Ovechkin didn't beat that number. He's beat that number by more than 10 goals five times.

I'm really hoping Kessel turns into a perennial 40 goal scorer, but Ovechkin is pretty much a perennial Richard trophy winner. 40 goals (which most of us HOPE Kessel hits and which most NHLers can only dream of) is an off year for Ovi.

To phrase it another way: Kessel's best season is essentially Ovechkin's worst season. And in Ovechkin's "worst" season, he still put up 50+ assists.

 

[bustaheims]

Kessel's best season would represent Ovechkin's 2nd lowest goal total and 3rd lowest point total for a non-lockout season. Kessel is an excellent goal scoring winger. Ovechkin is the 2nd best pure goal scorer in the league right now, surpassed only by Stamkos - and, even then, I'd concede that's a matter of opinion and it's awfully close between them.

 

[losveratos]

Kessel's best season would represent Ovechkin's 2nd lowest goal total and 3rd lowest point total for a non-lockout season. Kessel is an excellent goal scoring winger. Ovechkin is the 2nd best pure goal scorer in the league right now, surpassed only by Stamkos - and, even then, I'd concede that's a matter of opinion and it's awfully close between them.

I disagree. Stamkos is objectively the better of the two. Even if you narrow it down to just goal scoring.

In the last 4 years, Stamkos has played 34 less games and scored 6 more goals.
Or you can look at their shooting % for sniping ability. Stamkos' best and worst years are 20.2% and 12.7 (as a rookie) with a career average of 17.5%. Ovechkin's on the other hand are 14.6% (which he's done twice) and 8.7%. Stamkos' average is higher than Ovi's best year.
To illustrate how big of a difference that is. They've both had a 51g season. Ovi accomplished that in 386 shots on net, Stamkos did it in 297.

As much as I think the difference between Kessel and Ovi when considering everything about them presently isn't that great. The difference between Stamkos and Ovi is pretty wide considering the same things, age/contract/positional importance.

 

[losveratos]

Oh... and my own list. I keep forgetting to add it.

I'd trade Kessel for a top 4 Dman. Weber, Doughty, Pieterangelo, and Kieth.

I can't think of a winger I'd trade him for atm. Likewise goalies. Maybe... maybe Price. I'd certainly think about it anyway.

Center's are easy pickings. Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, Tavares, and Mackinnon.

Oh... and the 1st overall pick in next years draft ^_^

 

[bustaheims]

I disagree. Stamkos is objectively the better of the two. Even if you narrow it down to just goal scoring.

In the last 4 years, Stamkos has played 34 less games and scored 6 more goals.
Or you can look at their shooting % for sniping ability. Stamkos' best and worst years are 20.2% and 12.7 (as a rookie) with a career average of 17.5%. Ovechkin's on the other hand are 14.6% (which he's done twice) and 8.7%. Stamkos' average is higher than Ovi's best year.
To illustrate how big of a difference that is. They've both had a 51g season. Ovi accomplished that in 386 shots on net, Stamkos did it in 297.

As much as I think the difference between Kessel and Ovi when considering everything about them presently isn't that great. The difference between Stamkos and Ovi is pretty wide considering the same things, age/contract/positional importance.

Until Stamkos can actually outscore Ovechkin on a regular, it's close. As for shooting percentage . . . it's great that Stamkos' is higher, but, it's not like Ovechkin's shot totals are an aberration. He's never taken less than 300 shots in a non-lockout season, and only been less than 367 once. As long as he's healthy, that's a trend that's going to continue.I don't care how many shots it takes for him to score, as long as he continues to do so - and there's nothing that indicates Ovechkin will stop shooting or scoring at prolific rates. Stamkos picks his spots better, whereas Ovechkin focus is on putting the puck on net. There's no guarantee that more shots from Stamkos would lead to anything more than a similar shooting percentage as Ovechkin.

 

[Kin]

In the last 4 years, Stamkos has played 34 less games and scored 6 more goals.

That's a pretty transparent attempt to shoehorn in the worst goal-scoring year of Ovechkin's career though. The last two years Stamkos has been at .72 gpg and Ovechkin has been at .66 gpg or the difference between a 59 goal season and a 54 goal season. Ovechkin scored at a better rate than Stamkos last year, Stamkos this year.

Stamkos probably has the edge but it's closer than you're making it out to be.

The difference between Stamkos and Ovi is pretty wide considering the same things, age/contract/positional importance.

I don't think you'd get a lot of disagreement saying that Stamkos would be higher on a trade value list than Ovechkin but what separates the two are the things you mention above, not really goal scoring.

 

[losveratos]

In the last 4 years, Stamkos has played 34 less games and scored 6 more goals.

That's a pretty transparent attempt to shoehorn in the worst goal-scoring year of Ovechkin's career though. The last two years Stamkos has been at .72 gpg and Ovechkin has been at .66 gpg or the difference between a 59 goal season and a 54 goal season. Ovechkin scored at a better rate than Stamkos last year, Stamkos this year.

Stamkos probably has the edge but it's closer than you're making it out to be.

The difference between Stamkos and Ovi is pretty wide considering the same things, age/contract/positional importance.

I don't think you'd get a lot of disagreement saying that Stamkos would be higher on a trade value list than Ovechkin but what separates the two are the things you mention above, not really goal scoring.

I didn't actually realize that >_<

4 years was selected because that's what auto came up when I used my history auto populate in chrome to navigate to quant hockey.

Basically, I started typing the address and it auto completed to this
http://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/seasons/last-4-nhl-seasons-players-stats.html