Phil Kessel

[Kin]

While that's adorable and all, you seem to be under the impression that I think there's some kind of cosmic force maligning Kessel.  I haven't suggested there's some kind of bad juju following Kessel.  He's simply had a significant number of "almost goals" that simply haven't gone in.  My only explanation (if there's even anything to be explained) is that slumps happen, and your explanation is... well, I'm sure you have an explanation that's something other than "your explanation's silly".

I don't really have an explanation because I'm not looking for a way to explain the obvious. When a player who derives a ton of his value from scoring goals isn't scoring goals, he's not contributing to the team as much as he should. That's all. Well, I suppose, additionally I'd say that "playing well" is related to what a player is actually contributing and so I see the "Sure, he's not contributing anything but he's playing just as well as when he is" as a bit of a contradiction.

I don't deny good players go through slumps. Albert Pujols can hit .200 for a month and Kobe Bryant can shoot 5-20, the difference is I wouldn't say that Albert Pujols or Kobe Bryant played as well as they always do during these slumps, they're just missing the ball or the net by the merest of inches and chalk it up to luck or the breaks. Hitting the ball, making shots, scoring goals...missing by inches is the same as missing by feet. They miss. Players playing well don't miss as much. That's how we separate good players from bad.

That's it. Kessel isn't playing to the standard he needs to. It would be the least controversial statement in the world if there weren't people still fighting Brian Burke's battles.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

My guess is, Phil signs in Toronto long term at a good price.

That's my feeling on this also. Nonis isn't an idiot, he knows that even if he was going to trade Kessel, right now is the dumbest time to do it. He's going to start scoring again this season, so I wonder who floated this to the media?

 

[Kin]

Why is everyone so high on O'Reilly?  He has fewer career points than Bozak.

I don't get it either. He's had one season where he's looked like more than a 3rd liner (while getting the most ice time per game out of all the forwards on his team), and now he's being touted as a potential 1st line centre?

To be fair, I think it's a little misleading to say that he's only had one season at that level when his other two seasons were as an 18 and 19 year old. When the Leafs traded for Kessel he'd only had one season where he'd scored a good of amount of goals for a goalscorer but because it was his most recent one and his previous years were his first two in the league there's a good reason to look at his most recent year as the one most indicative of his ability.

 

[Zee]

My guess is, Phil signs in Toronto long term at a good price.

That's my feeling on this also. Nonis isn't an idiot, he knows that even if he was going to trade Kessel, right now is the dumbest time to do it. He's going to start scoring again this season, so I wonder who floated this to the media?

Well, Nonis's brother in law Darren Dreger mentioned it during the Habs/Bruins telecast.  LOL

That's why I mentioned the trading deadline.  Teams are apt to throw in more pieces at the deadline when they know their team is making a push for playoff success.  I can see a team like San Jose potentially going for a Kessel to provide more scoring in the post season if they feel they need to try and "go for it" this year.  I use San Jose as an example, but any team that is set in a playoff position by the deadline might make a move for an elite winger.

 

[bustaheims]

To be fair, I think it's a little misleading to say that he's only had one season at that level when his other two seasons were as an 18 and 19 year old. When the Leafs traded for Kessel he'd only had one season where he'd scored a good of amount of goals for a goalscorer but because it was his most recent one and his previous years were his first two in the league there's a good reason to look at his most recent year as the one most indicative of his ability.

Even in that most recent year, he looks like more of a Stephen Weiss type than anything else, and I don't think anyone would be happy to have that as a 1st line centre. His junior numbers don't exactly scream 1st line potential either.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Why is everyone so high on O'Reilly?  He has fewer career points than Bozak.

I don't get it either. He's had one season where he's looked like more than a 3rd liner (while getting the most ice time per game out of all the forwards on his team), and now he's being touted as a potential 1st line centre? Sorry, but, I just don't see it. Good 2nd line centre? Sure, I can see that, but, realistically, I think he's a 2nd/3rd line tweener on a contending team.

His one good season in the NHL was also the one and only season he played while not being a teenager. I don't understand how you can hold his first two seasons against him when he was playing as an 18/19 year old, especially when his primary linamates were Cody McLeod, Darcy Tucker, Matt Hendricks, Daniel Winnik, and Brandon Yip. The Avs weren't expecting him to score goals during those first two years. They needed a solid checking centre who can kill penalties, and that's exactly what he provided.

When they needed him to step up offensively he did exactly that, at the age of 20 which is still a pretty early age for prospects to make the jump into the NHL. To think that season is a ceiling for him and not a jumping point is pretty questionable to me.

 

[bustaheims]

Well, Nonis's brother in law Darren Dreger mentioned it during the Habs/Bruins telecast.  LOL

Cousin-in-law.

 

[Zee]

Well, Nonis's brother in law Darren Dreger mentioned it during the Habs/Bruins telecast.  LOL

Cousin-in-law.

Cousin in law?  I had always heard brother in law.  Now I don't trust anything Dreger says.  I talk to my brothers in law, but cousins? Pffffffftttt

 

[Kin]

Even in that most recent year, he looks like more of a Stephen Weiss type than anything else, and I don't think anyone would be happy to have that as a 1st line centre. His junior numbers don't exactly scream 1st line potential either.

Don't get me wrong, I have very little in the way of opinion on O'Reilly and wouldn't make him the centrepiece of any big trade the team made. I'm just saying that a step forward as a 20 year old is a sign of development, not inconsistency.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

My guess is, Phil signs in Toronto long term at a good price.

That's my feeling on this also. Nonis isn't an idiot, he knows that even if he was going to trade Kessel, right now is the dumbest time to do it. He's going to start scoring again this season, so I wonder who floated this to the media?

The media!  Kessel hasn't scored in 10 games.  OK fine.  He has 6 assists in 10 games, is even in +- and the most encouraging thing is seems to be paying a little more attention to defence.

 

[bustaheims]

When they needed him to step up offensively he did exactly that, at the age of 20 which is still a pretty early age for prospects to make the jump into the NHL. To think that season is a ceiling for him and not a jumping point is pretty questionable to me.

And how easily people disregard those first two seasons is pretty questionable to me. I really don't care how old he was. It doesn't matter as much as people want it to and it's not always a good thing, either. Generally, players with 1st line potential that make the league at 18/19 start to show it at 18/19. They may not be there yet, but they're closer than O'Reilly was. I don't see him growing at leaps and bounds from where he was last season, as that would make him a very unusual case. Sure, there's some room for improvement there, but, how much is questionable and it's extremely unlikely that it'll be to the point that he'd be an acceptable 1st line centre on a team with hopes of contending for the Cup. 2nd line centre, sure, maybe, but, 1st line? Realistically, not a chance.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

To be fair, I think it's a little misleading to say that he's only had one season at that level when his other two seasons were as an 18 and 19 year old. When the Leafs traded for Kessel he'd only had one season where he'd scored a good of amount of goals for a goalscorer but because it was his most recent one and his previous years were his first two in the league there's a good reason to look at his most recent year as the one most indicative of his ability.

Even in that most recent year, he looks like more of a Stephen Weiss type than anything else, and I don't think anyone would be happy to have that as a 1st line centre. His junior numbers don't exactly scream 1st line potential either.

Weiss didn't crack 50 points until he was 23 years old (well, 48 points in 74 games). As for his junior stats, well they might have looked a little more impressive had to spent another 2 seasons there like most prospects but he was busy collecting a NHL pay cheque.

 

[Redleaf]

Why is everyone so high on O'Reilly?  He has fewer career points than Bozak.

I don't get it either. He's had one season where he's looked like more than a 3rd liner (while getting the most ice time per game out of all the forwards on his team), and now he's being touted as a potential 1st line centre? Sorry, but, I just don't see it. Good 2nd line centre? Sure, I can see that, but, realistically, I think he's a 2nd/3rd line tweener on a contending team.

His one good season in the NHL was also the one and only season he played while not being a teenager. I don't understand how you can hold his first two seasons against him when he was playing as an 18/19 year old, especially when his primary linamates were Cody McLeod, Darcy Tucker, Matt Hendricks, Daniel Winnik, and Brandon Yip. The Avs weren't expecting him to score goals during those first two years. They needed a solid checking centre who can kill penalties, and that's exactly what he provided.

When they needed him to step up offensively he did exactly that, at the age of 20 which is still a pretty early age for prospects to make the jump into the NHL. To think that season is a ceiling for him and not a jumping point is pretty questionable to me.

My thoughts exactly. He was put into a defensive role and excelled, while still putting up pretty impressive point totals for a kid. He has the makings of a solid 2 way player, who may really surprise with his point production as he matures.

 

[bustaheims]

Weiss didn't crack 50 points until he was 23 years old (well, 48 points in 74 games). As for his junior stats, well they might have looked a little more impressive had to spent another 2 seasons there like most prospects but he was busy collecting a NHL pay cheque.

Well, to use Weiss again, in his first two years in junior, he produced a better pace than O'Reilly did in either of his, and it wasn't until Jokinen was moved that Weiss started getting the first line minutes that O'Reilly did last season. Had he been getting them earlier, he likely would have produced at a similar or great rate than O'Reilly did last season.

 

[Deebo]

I don't think a 10 game slump will effect his trade value.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't think a 10 game slump will effect his trade value.

It won't. Fans like to overstate the impact slumps have on trade values, but, most GMs know better. His trade value isn't significantly different than it was all summer, with the only real significant influences on it right now being the changes in the cap system.

 

[bustaheims]

Don't get me wrong, I have very little in the way of opinion on O'Reilly and wouldn't make him the centrepiece of any big trade the team made. I'm just saying that a step forward as a 20 year old is a sign of development, not inconsistency.

I'm not saying it's a sign of inconsistency either, but, at the same time, it's not proof that he'll progress past that level or even maintain that level. I'm not suggesting he'd regress back to the 3rd liner he was in his 1st two seasons, just that he may not progress much past the player he was last season.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Weiss didn't crack 50 points until he was 23 years old (well, 48 points in 74 games). As for his junior stats, well they might have looked a little more impressive had to spent another 2 seasons there like most prospects but he was busy collecting a NHL pay cheque.

Well, to use Weiss again, in his first two years in junior, he produced a better pace than O'Reilly did in either of his, and it wasn't until Jokinen was moved that Weiss started getting the first line minutes that O'Reilly did last season. Had he been getting them earlier, he likely would have produced at a similar or great rate than O'Reilly did last season.

And had O'Reilly not been stuck behind Stastny and Duchene in his first two seasons maybe he hits 50 points as a teenager.

Obviously, we're not going to see eye to eye on his one. So I just wanted to clear up my final thoughts on where I see O'Reilly's potential. Top-10 centre in the league? Of course not. But 65 points, strong defensively, kills penalties, +50% on the draw, with an A or a C on his chest on day? I'll take that over anything we have in this system and stop dreaming that a top-10 centre will fall into our laps.

 

[Kin]

I'm not saying it's a sign of inconsistency either, but, at the same time, it's not proof that he'll progress past that level or even maintain that level. I'm not suggesting he'd regress back to the 3rd liner he was in his 1st two seasons, just that he may not progress much past the player he was last season.

I agree. Much in the same way that when the Leafs dealt for Kessel they did run the risk that he'd forever be a 30 goal-25 assist kind of guy. I'm just saying that when a 20 year old does make a jump forward like that there's a reason to think it might go further.

 

[Jalili]

Weiss didn't crack 50 points until he was 23 years old (well, 48 points in 74 games). As for his junior stats, well they might have looked a little more impressive had to spent another 2 seasons there like most prospects but he was busy collecting a NHL pay cheque.

Well, to use Weiss again, in his first two years in junior, he produced a better pace than O'Reilly did in either of his, and it wasn't until Jokinen was moved that Weiss started getting the first line minutes that O'Reilly did last season. Had he been getting them earlier, he likely would have produced at a similar or great rate than O'Reilly did last season.

And had O'Reilly not been stuck behind Stastny and Duchene in his first two seasons maybe he hits 50 points as a teenager.

Obviously, we're not going to see eye to eye on his one. So I just wanted to clear up my final thoughts on where I see O'Reilly's potential. Top-10 centre in the league? Of course not. But 65 points, strong defensively, kills penalties, +50% on the draw, with an A or a C on his chest on day? I'll take that over anything we have in this system and stop dreaming that a top-10 centre will fall into our laps.

Not to mention that he's a heart and soul kind of player too.

Saw someone mention Bozak as a comparison for career points... Bozak is 5 years older and has had the offensive luxury of playing with Kessel most of his career.