Point signs 3-year bridge deal

[mr grieves]

Less income tax and bridge deal or no this makes the Marner deal look like the Leafs got bent over bad.

How does this make the Eichel or Aho deals look?

This deal is the outlier right now. Not Marner. I mean, Point outscored Boeser by like 40 points and got a million more than he did.

Is it not safer to say both Marner and Point are outliers here? Marner in a player-friendly direction, Point in a team-friendly one. We're still waiting on a few others have others, but it looks like the market is generally delivering contracts somewhere between the two.

 

[Strangelove]

You're referring to contracts that are longer than Marner's and have a lower AAV. What am I supposed to be explaining?

Really? Boeser's three year deal is longer than Marner's six?

The question is in simple English. If the Leafs are exclusive in paying significantly higher rates than Tampa than explain Point's deal in relation to some of the other deals signed.

I don't really know what Boeser has to do with anything. Marner's deal looks bad relative to other RFA deals, both recent and older. One of the deals that makes it look bad is the Point deal. This isn't very complicated.

 

[Kin]

Is it not safer to say both Marner and Point are outliers here?

No, because I don't think Marner really is one. Is he on the higher side of things? Sure. But is his deal wildly out of whack with, say, the Draisaitl deal in terms of AAV? I don't think so.

I did a point per % of the cap thing in the Boeser thread and, for instance, Draisaitl got .147 of the cap for every point he scored in the final year of his ELC. Marner got .142.

 

[Kin]

I don't really know what Boeser has to do with anything.

He's another recently signed RFA whose deal is part of the salary structure of the league that we're trying to compare these deals to. Again, Marner and Point are not the only two contracts in the league.

Tampa is getting a leg up on everyone in this regard, not just the Leafs. Their deals are outliers, not a representation of the norm.

 

[mr grieves]

Is it not safer to say both Marner and Point are outliers here?

No, because I don't think Marner really is one. Is he on the higher side of things? Sure. But is his deal wildly out of whack with, say, the Draisaitl deal in terms of AAV? I don't think so.

I did a point per % of the cap thing in the Boeser thread and, for instance, Draisaitl got .147 of the cap for every point he scored in the final year of his ELC. Marner got .142.

On a deal that bought up an extra 2 UFA years... Eichel's another in Marner's C.H.% range, but, again, on a deal that runs to 8 years. Some of recent 4-to-5-year deals for high-end players leaving their ELCs (Larkin, Meier, Guentzel), but most are in the 7% range, with Aho in the 10% range. One extra year, and the Leafs are paying as if they've bought up three more? 

I don't know. I get it's very attractive and awfully easy to say we oughtn't compare Point to Marner to draw conclusions about the current RFA market, but, looking beyond Tampa, I can't find a sample of RFA deals where Marner's isn't a notable outlier.

 

[Kin]

On a deal that bought up an extra 2 UFA years...

But there's a lot of ways to parse things. Marner wasn't playing with McDavid. He was also killing penalties. He also had three good years of point production to Draisaitl's one or one and a half. Marner outscored Draisaitl in their third years by 22%. Yes, Draisaitl's deal bought up extra years but that's reflected in Draisaitl getting more of the cap per point despite not really being close to Marner's out put.

Either way, the Marner deal is pretty roughly comparable to Draisaitl's and a host of others. Point's deal isn't.

 

[Kin]

Eichel, as a comparable, for instance would be at .208 of the cap per point scored in the year before he signed or roughly 40% higher than Marner. Even if you pro-rate Eichel that year to 82 games and 78 points he's still at .170.

 

[Bates]

Only a couple deals signed this summer make Marner's look good.  Hayes and Keller, not exactly a group you want in.

 

[Bill_Berg]

This is the sort of deal I thought Marner wanted. TB will qualify Point for year 4 at 9 mill, he could accept, and then walk to UFA and be asking for 15+ mill there. We'll only really know which path is best for teams and players in six years. How much is Point going to make during those 6 years?

 

[Bates]

Marner wasn't exactly playing with The Goat last season. He did however help Tavares gain a whopping 4 points over his previous season while gaining 25 of his own. Hmmm could there be something there??

 

[mr grieves]

Eichel, as a comparable, for instance would be at .208 of the cap per point scored in the year before he signed or roughly 40% higher than Marner. Even if you pro-rate Eichel that year to 82 games and 78 points he's still at .170.

But, as you note, there's a lot of ways to parse things. Eichel is Buffalo's franchise 1C. He was drafted just behind the greatest player of his generation. He wasn't playing with talent in Tavares's league. He was injured and production takes a hit even when one's back. And so on.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Marner wasn't exactly playing with The Goat last season. He did however help Tavares gain a whopping 4 points over his previous season while gaining 25 of his own. Hmmm could there be something there??

I believe I said it when it was known JT and Marner would play together, that it would cost the Leafs big time because he was going to have a great year. It did. As for comparing Point and Marner. It is what it is.
I think the NHL needs to level the playing field with the tax system. Pick the highest income tax in the places they play and put it on everyone cap wise. So while Point makes 6 mill, his actual cap hit is 8.5 kind of deal. Don't know if it's possible but it would remove the imbalance and takeaway any advantages of a no or low tax state.

 

[L K]

Marner wasn't exactly playing with The Goat last season. He did however help Tavares gain a whopping 4 points over his previous season while gaining 25 of his own. Hmmm could there be something there??

He also helped Tavares score 10 more goals than the previous season and 9 more than his career high.

 

[Bates]

Marner wasn't exactly playing with The Goat last season. He did however help Tavares gain a whopping 4 points over his previous season while gaining 25 of his own. Hmmm could there be something there??

I believe I said it when it was known JT and Marner would play together, that it would cost the Leafs big time because he was going to have a great year. It did. As for comparing Point and Marner. It is what it is.
I think the NHL needs to level the playing field with the tax system. Pick the highest income tax in the places they play and put it on everyone cap wise. So while Point makes 6 mill, his actual cap hit is 8.5 kind of deal. Don't know if it's possible but it would remove the imbalance and takeaway any advantages of a no or low tax state.

What should they do with endorsement money?

 

[Kin]

But, as you note, there's a lot of ways to parse things. Eichel is Buffalo's franchise 1C. He was drafted just behind the greatest player of his generation. He wasn't playing with talent in Tavares's league. He was injured and production takes a hit even when one's back. And so on.

Right, but do those things add up to 40% more per point? Does that make it a good or better deal that Eichel was drafted behind McDavid?

One of the things that's frustrating about this discussion is that there seems to be a set of generally accepted principles that we all accept like teams should pay a premium to buy up extra UFA years(although it wasn't too long ago that teams sold that as "guaranteeing security") but how much? Teams generally value Centres over Wings and goal scoring over assists but how does that actually translate specifically?

But it's not just deals like Eichel and Draisaitl or a bunch of other historical comparisons I could make(Kessel's 2nd deal was .016 cap % per point higher than Marner, RNH's was .048!). Point's deal has him paid, per point, less than Andreas Johnsson. It's just completely unprecedented.

 

[Bates]

Marner wasn't exactly playing with The Goat last season. He did however help Tavares gain a whopping 4 points over his previous season while gaining 25 of his own. Hmmm could there be something there??

He also helped Tavares score 10 more goals than the previous season and 9 more than his career high.

Does the goal scorer get the passer points or the other way around? No goal, no assist. I'm kidding, both are important.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Marner wasn't exactly playing with The Goat last season. He did however help Tavares gain a whopping 4 points over his previous season while gaining 25 of his own. Hmmm could there be something there??

He also helped Tavares score 10 more goals than the previous season and 9 more than his career high.

All true. Both definitely helped each other but Marner wasn't getting 94 points last year playing with Bozak or Kadri as his centre.
Someone posted a stat or graph in the past that showed JT was more beneficial to Marner's stats then Marner was to JT.

 

[Kin]

Pre-Marner, Tavares averaged 33 goals and 38 points per 82 games.

 

[Bates]

Pre-Marner, Tavares averaged 33 goals and 38 points per 82 games.

And only Marner changed for Tavares? And what were Marner's averages?

 

[Kin]

All true. Both definitely helped each other but Marner wasn't getting 94 points last year playing with Bozak or Kadri as his centre.
Someone posted a stat or graph in the past that showed JT was more beneficial to Marner's stats then Marner was to JT.

Marner went from 69 points to 94 from year 2 to year 3. Is some of that attributable to Tavares? Sure.

But....

- His ice time was also up
- His PP time was up
- Scoring around the league was up

Throw in some natural progression and it's really hard to make the case that Tavares accounted for a huge jump for Marner.