Possible Phaneuf Extension
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mr grieves
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Nik the Trik said:
It's possible I'm misreading you, but, if you're saying second pairing guys on good teams will be worth $7m/yr in a few years, that's been said after the Bozak and Clarkson signings too. The Leafs seem to keep banking this increasing cap coin -- well, nevermind, cap'll make it look palatable in year 3 -- but I wonder: wouldn't it be better to be the team that doesn't overcommit to inadequate players and is able to put those available cap dollars to better use? I don't think a Phaneuf signing would quite be in this territory, but it sort of seems like the Leafs are buying swampland in a place where real estate prices are skyrocketing. You're still probably better off if you've got some bedrock underneath the property.
Kin
New member
mr grieves said:
Well, I suppose the operative word there is "worth" and it depends on how you want to use it. What I've said is that the deals won't be out of place given the actual market and what will have to be paid to acquire players of similar talents. That remark is just...I'm interested in the price of a pint of milk.
As for the rest of it...do you really need to ask me if I think the Leafs should keep paying market prices for their current core?
bustaheims
Active member
Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate said:
Sure, but the problem is that I really don't agree with Nik's statements there. Maybe Phaneuf is a #2 on a really good team rather than a #1, but, he's not a second pairing guy. And, the fact that he's the team's #1 isn't the big issue with the defence - but, rather, the talent gap between the where Phaneuf is in his defensive play and his overall play and where the rest of the blue line are in theirs. The team needs to really bring up the talent of their bottom line players, because they're rapidly approaching the point of diminishing returns in terms of improving their front line players.
Kin
New member
I would like to point out, in the interest of clearing up some confusion, that my categorization of Unfrozen Caveman Defenseman as a second pairing defenseman on a really good team is sort of dependant on my view that really good teams are few and far between in the modern NHL and that having a good record in a crummy league isn't my yardstick.
That said, I think that there are a few teams, Chicago and St. Louis especially, where he'd be the #3 guy at best.
edit: And, while this is probably opening a bit of a can of worms, it also bears mentioning that a team's #1 defense pairing isn't always their two best defensemen. Niedermayer played most of his even strength time under Carlyle with Beauchemin, not Pronger.
That said, I think that there are a few teams, Chicago and St. Louis especially, where he'd be the #3 guy at best.
edit: And, while this is probably opening a bit of a can of worms, it also bears mentioning that a team's #1 defense pairing isn't always their two best defensemen. Niedermayer played most of his even strength time under Carlyle with Beauchemin, not Pronger.
I think Phaneuf at $7 million is very different than Clarkson. I think Clarkson is probably untradeable at his salary level (save for other equally bad contracts). Clarkson just doesn't give you something (a 30-40 point player who takes a lot of penalties) you can't get in other ways.
If you offered Phaneuf with a $7 million/year salary at the trade deadline or in the offseason at free agent time, lots of teams would snap him up. There would be huge demand. These days, UFAs as good as Phaneuf just do not come along very often. Teams with defensemen as good as Phaneuf don't usually trade them. I actually think $7 million is cheap given standard UFA prices. If Phaneuf went on the open UFA market, I would not be surprised at all to see him offered $9+ million per year.
So, even if the leafs want to rebuild (which, of course, management won't because leafs management never does), signing Phaneuf may not be a bad idea. Even at a very high salary, I'll bet they could trade him for some valuable picks and prospects.
If you offered Phaneuf with a $7 million/year salary at the trade deadline or in the offseason at free agent time, lots of teams would snap him up. There would be huge demand. These days, UFAs as good as Phaneuf just do not come along very often. Teams with defensemen as good as Phaneuf don't usually trade them. I actually think $7 million is cheap given standard UFA prices. If Phaneuf went on the open UFA market, I would not be surprised at all to see him offered $9+ million per year.
So, even if the leafs want to rebuild (which, of course, management won't because leafs management never does), signing Phaneuf may not be a bad idea. Even at a very high salary, I'll bet they could trade him for some valuable picks and prospects.
Rebel_1812
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Nik the Trik said:
Are you advocating tanking and drafting then after the first playoff appearance in years? How did the tanking and drafting work out before Carlyle took over as coach?
J
Jalili
Guest
The only team that has a defense where I'd really consider Phaneuf to be clearly 3rd in their pecking order is St. Louis. And I guess probably Phoenix too with Ekman-Larsson and Yandle.
The others are pretty speculative.
I'd have thrown New York in the mix with McDonagh-Staal had Staal's career not been derailed by injuries.
Chicago doesn't really have a clearly defined #2 these days as it is, with Hjalmarsson and Seabrook both being relatively equal D-men. I think Phaneuf's on par with those two if not a bit better as of recent.
If Letang wasn't such a trainwreck this year, maybe Pittsburgh with him and Martin.
San Jose maybe with Vlasic and Boyle? I don't know if Boyle's still up there these days though.
I think Phaneuf is pretty clearly a top pairing guy. As much as things could go south when signing a 7 year commitment, I wouldn't resent the team at all for locking him up.
The others are pretty speculative.
I'd have thrown New York in the mix with McDonagh-Staal had Staal's career not been derailed by injuries.
Chicago doesn't really have a clearly defined #2 these days as it is, with Hjalmarsson and Seabrook both being relatively equal D-men. I think Phaneuf's on par with those two if not a bit better as of recent.
If Letang wasn't such a trainwreck this year, maybe Pittsburgh with him and Martin.
San Jose maybe with Vlasic and Boyle? I don't know if Boyle's still up there these days though.
I think Phaneuf is pretty clearly a top pairing guy. As much as things could go south when signing a 7 year commitment, I wouldn't resent the team at all for locking him up.
Andy007
Active member
Rebel_1812 said:
There wasn't any tanking and drafting; the team actively avoided any kind of committed rebuild, which was been a key factor in the long playoff drought.
Quite frankly I'm sick of this "1st playoff appearance in so in so years" talk. They barely made the playoffs in a shortened season and bowed out in the 1st round. Let's not pretend this was a Stanley Cup Final team.
But anyway in response to your rhetorical question, one could say that the drafting pre-Carlyle actually worked out great because it yielded Reimer, the sole reason the Leafs made the playoffs last year.
Kin
New member
Rebel_1812 said:
Well, they never really did it but to the extent that they did it yielded Kadri, who looks like a pretty good player, and Rielly who is a heck of a prospect. Based on those two picks I think an objective reading would be forced to conclude that if they ever managed their way into a top 3 pick or, heck, multiple top 3 picks, that it would also yield very good young players that a team could build around.
If the Leafs hadn't made the Kessel trade and invested a ton of money and prospects into their "retooling" and just kept their first round picks then they could be building around Kadri, Seguin, Hamilton and Rielly. However that assumes that all of their "retooling" and guys like Phaneuf, Kessel and whoever didn't help the team at all. If those guys even helped the Leafs place in the standings by one spot per year, the Leafs could be building around a mix of young players like Taylor Hall, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Sean Couturier and so on and so forth.
And that doesn't even take into account that the team would be even richer prospect wise because instead of doing things like trading a bunch of assets for guys like Phaneuf, they could have been trading assets for picks and prospects.
So, again, I find it very hard to believe that someone looking at what has happened in the last five years wouldn't believe that if the team had hired a talented, smart GM who was dedicated to truly rebuilding and who had the resources that MLSE could make available to him or her that things couldn't easily look rosier than they do right now.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Just a stats dump (or a shart for Reinhart?):
This season at 5 on 5, the Leafs have played 1,683:00. At 5 on 5 Phaneuf has played 536:40 this season. So Phaneuf has been on the ice for roughly 32% of the team's total 5 on 5 play this season (Gardiner - 36%). In those 1,683:00 minutes at 5 on 5, the Leafs have surrendered 62 goals. In his 536:40 minutes at 5 on 5 this season, Phaneuf has been on the ice for 12 of those goals against, or roughly 19% of them (Gardiner - 27%).
In those 1,683:00 minutes at 5 on 5, the Leafs have scored 60 goals. In his 536:40 at 5 on 5, Phaneuf has been on the ice for 21 of those goals for, or roughly 35% of them (Gardiner - 35%).
Extraskater.com has Phaneuf/Gunnarsson facing toughest competition in the league among D. Behindthenet.ca has them in the top 4/5. Hockeyanalysis has Phaneuf 6th. Or just use the eye test, Phaneuf/Gunnarsson get the toughest matchups on the team. No defenceman on the team starts fewer of their shifts from a face-off at even-strength (5 on 5 and 4 on 4) in the offensive zone than Phaneuf (just 24% of them). Along with Gunnarsson and Franson, it is among the lowest in the league for defencemen.
Basically to sum up - no one on the D plays tougher minutes than Phaneuf (and few in the entire league do) and no one on the Leafs D has been on the ice for more 5 on 5 goals for (tied with Gardiner) or has been on the ice for less 5 on 5 goals against than Phaneuf.
He's had a tough go of it on the PP (seriously, switch them around on the point, let him try to regain that one-timer), but the majority of the game is played at 5 on 5 and in those situations, Phaneuf has been great for the team this season. Latch onto a particularly bad couple of games if you want, but he's been given the toughest assignments and is performing better than arguably any skater on the roster with them. His offensive numbers are down, but it's not just a Phaneuf thing, and considering his role right now, not altogether surprising (other than on the PP).
With a rising cap, $7 million is fair for a player like that, especially after back to back seasons of being top 10 in D scoring. He has provided offense from the back-end when given the opportunity in his time here and when asked to play a tough, defensive role, he has done that very well too.
/logs off
This season at 5 on 5, the Leafs have played 1,683:00. At 5 on 5 Phaneuf has played 536:40 this season. So Phaneuf has been on the ice for roughly 32% of the team's total 5 on 5 play this season (Gardiner - 36%). In those 1,683:00 minutes at 5 on 5, the Leafs have surrendered 62 goals. In his 536:40 minutes at 5 on 5 this season, Phaneuf has been on the ice for 12 of those goals against, or roughly 19% of them (Gardiner - 27%).
In those 1,683:00 minutes at 5 on 5, the Leafs have scored 60 goals. In his 536:40 at 5 on 5, Phaneuf has been on the ice for 21 of those goals for, or roughly 35% of them (Gardiner - 35%).
Extraskater.com has Phaneuf/Gunnarsson facing toughest competition in the league among D. Behindthenet.ca has them in the top 4/5. Hockeyanalysis has Phaneuf 6th. Or just use the eye test, Phaneuf/Gunnarsson get the toughest matchups on the team. No defenceman on the team starts fewer of their shifts from a face-off at even-strength (5 on 5 and 4 on 4) in the offensive zone than Phaneuf (just 24% of them). Along with Gunnarsson and Franson, it is among the lowest in the league for defencemen.
Basically to sum up - no one on the D plays tougher minutes than Phaneuf (and few in the entire league do) and no one on the Leafs D has been on the ice for more 5 on 5 goals for (tied with Gardiner) or has been on the ice for less 5 on 5 goals against than Phaneuf.
He's had a tough go of it on the PP (seriously, switch them around on the point, let him try to regain that one-timer), but the majority of the game is played at 5 on 5 and in those situations, Phaneuf has been great for the team this season. Latch onto a particularly bad couple of games if you want, but he's been given the toughest assignments and is performing better than arguably any skater on the roster with them. His offensive numbers are down, but it's not just a Phaneuf thing, and considering his role right now, not altogether surprising (other than on the PP).
With a rising cap, $7 million is fair for a player like that, especially after back to back seasons of being top 10 in D scoring. He has provided offense from the back-end when given the opportunity in his time here and when asked to play a tough, defensive role, he has done that very well too.
/logs off
Rebel_1812
New member
TML fan said:
Yeah drafting high doesn't always equal winning team. They should try like burke to add talent threw trades, UFA's and drafting. Luke Schenn was a high draft pick that turned out to have not much talent, burke wisely traded him into a better playing in JVR. I don't see how letting Phaneuf walk would increase the talent of the leafs; your not going to find a better player threw UFA's or trades. A draft replacement would take years at the earliest.
Kin
New member
Rebel_1812 said:
That's as much an indictment of the strategy as a reckless driver is an indictment of the internal combustion engine.
Rebel_1812 said:
Proving, again, that high draft picks have a lot of value.
Rebel_1812 said:
Nobody would advocate letting him walk. The way to maximize him as an asset is to trade him.
Champ Kind
New member
Potvin29 said:
I read this and spilled my water....did you mean to say "shart"?
Edit: sorry, I see that you did. Well, kudos for an excellent use of the word.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
A Weekend at Bernier's said:
Reference for those who don't know: http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=1877.msg160185#msg160185
Carlton gets all the credit.
x.jr.benchwarmer
New member
If Phaneuf gets a 7 year extension, that will be a terrific thing for him, and not so much for the Leafs, IMHO.
His skating is still average at best. (Realistically he doesn't have much of a chance at all to be picked as one of Team Canada's top 6 defencemen because of that fact alone, IMHO).
He does not generate, offence, notwithstanding all of his minutes on the power play. In fact, if the Leafs do get a new coach, rhetorically, how could he improve offensively, given all of the time that he has had on the power play to date?
He doesn't have agility, (some of his turns after getting beat are reminiscent of an ocean liner), doesn't have good hands, lacks a finely tuned hockey IQ, and his shot is certainly a good one, but it is not in any way better than any other defencemen in creating scoring chances. In fact, Gardiner and Franson are better options right now, even, as the starting defencemen on the power play IMHO.
And, looking at his defensive play this year, I would agree that it has been better than it has in previous years, but realistically the bar has been set somewhat low.
His plus-minus over the past 4 years has been a minus every year. He was the Leafs' fourth-worst player in plus-minus in the playoffs last year against Boston. (Frasor was actually tied for 14th best in the NHL last season at +18, but is now of course deservedly a healthy scratch largely because of his skating).
He was voted the most overrated player in a poll with 30 current NHL players (and Steen was voted the most underrated I believe).
And looking at give-aways, even this year, he is among the NHL worst. He is ranked with 29 give-aways, which is the 45th worst among some 868 players in NHL this year.
Of course, any stat may be construed in any manner of supporting or disproving an argument. And he has played a huge number of minutes this year. In fact, it seems that after he is out on a shift over 1 1/2 minutes, he is just gassed, and is really a liability, and that this has been a pattern over the last several years for him.
I would argue that if the Leafs are convinced that they want to use them as their number 1, that his play be restricted on the power play as well as the penalty kill, and that the length of his term be restricted to about 4 or 5 years, as he will not be getting any faster, and will be that much slower in 4 - 7 years from now, IMHO.
And the clincher is that the Leafs would not have as much trouble trading him in the future or buying him out if his play hampers the Leafs, especially towards the end of his contract.
But is seems that the Leaf management is committed to signing him, and there won't be much that will be done to change their position. Hence, the need to mitigate the potential damage, IMHO.
His skating is still average at best. (Realistically he doesn't have much of a chance at all to be picked as one of Team Canada's top 6 defencemen because of that fact alone, IMHO).
He does not generate, offence, notwithstanding all of his minutes on the power play. In fact, if the Leafs do get a new coach, rhetorically, how could he improve offensively, given all of the time that he has had on the power play to date?
He doesn't have agility, (some of his turns after getting beat are reminiscent of an ocean liner), doesn't have good hands, lacks a finely tuned hockey IQ, and his shot is certainly a good one, but it is not in any way better than any other defencemen in creating scoring chances. In fact, Gardiner and Franson are better options right now, even, as the starting defencemen on the power play IMHO.
And, looking at his defensive play this year, I would agree that it has been better than it has in previous years, but realistically the bar has been set somewhat low.
His plus-minus over the past 4 years has been a minus every year. He was the Leafs' fourth-worst player in plus-minus in the playoffs last year against Boston. (Frasor was actually tied for 14th best in the NHL last season at +18, but is now of course deservedly a healthy scratch largely because of his skating).
He was voted the most overrated player in a poll with 30 current NHL players (and Steen was voted the most underrated I believe).
And looking at give-aways, even this year, he is among the NHL worst. He is ranked with 29 give-aways, which is the 45th worst among some 868 players in NHL this year.
Of course, any stat may be construed in any manner of supporting or disproving an argument. And he has played a huge number of minutes this year. In fact, it seems that after he is out on a shift over 1 1/2 minutes, he is just gassed, and is really a liability, and that this has been a pattern over the last several years for him.
I would argue that if the Leafs are convinced that they want to use them as their number 1, that his play be restricted on the power play as well as the penalty kill, and that the length of his term be restricted to about 4 or 5 years, as he will not be getting any faster, and will be that much slower in 4 - 7 years from now, IMHO.
And the clincher is that the Leafs would not have as much trouble trading him in the future or buying him out if his play hampers the Leafs, especially towards the end of his contract.
But is seems that the Leaf management is committed to signing him, and there won't be much that will be done to change their position. Hence, the need to mitigate the potential damage, IMHO.
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