Possible Phaneuf Extension

[moon111]

For power-play points/minute, it looks approximately like this:
Franson  .11
Rielly      .09
Gardiner  .045
Phaneuf    .04

Phaneuf is the 4th highest per minute on the PP.  I would rather lose Phaneuf and see three high quality defensive defensemen brought in.
If the Leafs are out of it come trade deadline, I'd rather trade him for Paul Stastny.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

For power-play points/minute, it looks approximately like this:
Franson  .11
Rielly      .09
Gardiner  .045
Phaneuf    .04

Phaneuf is the 4th highest per minute on the PP.  I would rather lose Phaneuf and see three high quality defensive defensemen brought in.
If the Leafs are out of it come trade deadline, I'd rather trade him for Paul Stastny.

What are the numbers based on more than 37 games?

 

[Mike1]

Don't like it whatsoever. He isn't a elite defencemen & because of that it's an overpayment. Phaneuf's foot speed is a big concern & he isn't going to get any more quicker as he gets older.

I look at this team in general & don't see enough there that is worth locking these guys up long-term like they are special. Every night I see a team that gets outshot, outworked & doesn't look anywhere near cohesive enough on the ice. Yet Leafs management is going to pay these guys like they are elite? Give me a break! Wake up & stop making excuses for a team that does nothing but give lackluster performances night after night.

 

[Redleaf]

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=439873

Hopefully his 'good' season doesn't start to taper off after the signing.

 

[Leafaholic99]

Aside from a couple of details that still have to be worked out, the Toronto Maple Leafs are 'very close' to locking up captain Dion Phaneuf to a seven-year, $49 million contract extension, according to TSN Hockey Insider Darren Dreger.

Those details, according to TSN Hockey Insider Bob McKenzie, are regarding Phaneuf's no-movement and no-trade clauses in the language of the new contract.

Don't really like the term or amount, I figured he would stay at the same salary or a bit of a pay cut and would prefer only 5 years. Hopefully the cap rises and continues to rise, otherwise this deal is going to look bad in 3-4 years.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

$1.75mil more than Clarkson.

 

[brothert]

I hate those NTC/NMC clauses.  Nothing has burned the leafs more than these over the past decade.  I wish the Leafs would adopt a stand against them.  Make it public that its a principle, don't come here if you want one.  I still think players would sign with the leafs for the money regardless of the NTC/NMC.  Phaneuf certainly doesn't deserve one at the salary he'll be getting.

 

[moon111]

I think he's a $6-6.5 million/year player and I wouldn't go higher then that.  I'd let him walk.  I would kick him out immediately if he wanted a no-trade clause.  In fact, I would be okay seeing Phaneuf, Ranger, and Fraser gone in return for three solid, if unspectacular defensemen in return.  Of course if the Leafs can have their cake and eat it to, I'm okay with that.  With Franson, Gardiner, and Reilly, it's not offense that's needed, it's defense.

 

[maplesyrup]

7x7? I don't hate that. I think that's slightly less than what he'd get as a UFA actually.

 

[Andy007]

I think he's a $6-6.5 million/year player and I wouldn't go higher then that.  I'd let him walk.  I would kick him out immediately if he wanted a no-trade clause.  In fact, I would be okay seeing Phaneuf, Ranger, and Fraser gone in return for three solid, if unspectacular defensemen in return.  Of course if the Leafs can have their cake and eat it to, I'm okay with that.  With Franson, Gardiner, and Reilly, it's not offense that's needed, it's defense.

You'd pay him 6.5 but not 7? Seriously?

 

[bustaheims]

7x7? I don't hate that. I think that's slightly less than what he'd get as a UFA actually.

Yeah. He almost certainly gets 7 years on the open market, and probably gets close to $8M per.

 

[L K]

7x7? I don't hate that. I think that's slightly less than what he'd get as a UFA actually.

Yeah. He almost certainly gets 7 years on the open market, and probably gets close to $8M per.

7x7, not terrible but when you look at the top paid defensemen in the league:

Shea Weber - 7.8M (offer sheet)
Ryan Suter - 7.53M (UFA contract)
Brian Campbell - 7.14M
Drew Doughty - 7.0M
Zdeno Chara - 6.91M

I think the Leafs would have a hard time replacing Phaneuf, but I'm not quite sure that he is the 4th best defenseman in the league.  He's easily a #1 defenseman IMO, but the Leafs roster seems to be filled with an awful lot of highly paid players who haven't been able to elevate their game.

 

[maplesyrup]

7x7? I don't hate that. I think that's slightly less than what he'd get as a UFA actually.

Yeah. He almost certainly gets 7 years on the open market, and probably gets close to $8M per.

My feeling (and I could be wrong) is that he's have a handful of choices of destinations in the 7.5 mil. range and if his decision was strictly financial, he'd probably have a couple choices at 8 or above. 

Edit: (given where the cap is going.)

 

[bustaheims]

I think the Leafs would have a hard time replacing Phaneuf, but I'm not quite sure that he is the 4th best defenseman in the league.

That's a false equivalency, though. You can't make a straight comparison with these contract because they were mostly signed under significantly difference circumstances - lower cap, RFA instead of UFA, no limit on term, etc. Position in the cap hit hierarchy is very much an inexact placement.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

7x7, not terrible but when you look at the top paid defensemen in the league:

Shea Weber - 7.8M (offer sheet)
Ryan Suter - 7.53M (UFA contract)
Brian Campbell - 7.14M
Drew Doughty - 7.0M
Zdeno Chara - 6.91M

It's tough to compare all those contracts to Phaneuf without looking at them more closely though. Weber and Suter's contracts are both about twice as long as Phaneuf's (that's ridiculous to even think about). And their cap hits are both artificially lowered because of the cheap years added to the ends of them. Of course that's not an option anymore. Suter gets paid $71mil in his first 7 years. Weber gets $86mil. That's a huge increase from the $49mil Phaneuf is going to be paid.

As for Campbell, he signed his contract in in 2008. The salary cap in his first season was $56.7mil. So his cap hit accounted for about 12.5% of his teams salary cap. Phaneuf's reported deal will account for about 9.9% of our cap hit.

As for Chara, well I'm pretty sure Boston used some voodoo magic on him.

 

[L K]

7x7, not terrible but when you look at the top paid defensemen in the league:

Shea Weber - 7.8M (offer sheet)
Ryan Suter - 7.53M (UFA contract)
Brian Campbell - 7.14M
Drew Doughty - 7.0M
Zdeno Chara - 6.91M

It's tough to compare all those contracts to Phaneuf without looking at them more closely though. Weber and Suter's contracts are both about twice as long as Phaneuf's (that's ridiculous to even think about). And their cap hits are both artificially lowered because of the cheap years added to the ends of them. Of course that's not an option anymore. Suter gets paid $71mil in his first 7 years. Weber gets $86mil. That's a huge increase from the $49mil Phaneuf is going to be paid.

As for Campbell, he signed his contract in in 2008. The salary cap in his first season was $56.7mil. So his cap hit accounted for about 12.5% of his teams salary cap. Phaneuf's reported deal will account for about 9.9% of our cap hit.

As for Chara, well I'm pretty sure Boston used some voodoo magic on him.

My concern isn't really so much that the cap hit is out of line with what Phaneuf would get paid, but whether the Leafs should pay him that much.

Heading in to next year the Leafs will have:
4 defensemen: 14.92M  (Phaneuf, Gunnarsson, Liles, Rielly)
8 forwards: 31.48M
1 goalie: 2.9M
49.3M

The Cap is set at 71M for next year so they will have 21.7M to re-sign at least 5 forwards, 3 defensemen and a goaltender.

Based on current salaries of the existing players:
Holland, Kulemin, Raymond, Bolland - 8.47M
Franson, Gardiner, Fraser - 4.39M
Reimer - 1.8M
14.66M

So the Leafs will have 7 million to deal with raises for the rest of the team.

That's not a great deal to work with in a massively increased cap era and a number of teams who are going to have to spend like the dickens just to hit the floor.  So the Leafs have locked themselves in long-term to a team that is barely a playoff team. 

I have some real concern about that.

And that isn't a criticism of Phaneuf, because he's been a great player for the team this year (although his offensive game has fallen off a cliff).  I'm just concerned that the Leafs have so many high cap hit players and have very little to re-work the rest of the team because of it. 

 

[Kin]

My concern isn't really so much that the cap hit is out of line with what Phaneuf would get paid, but whether the Leafs should pay him that much.

Exactly. It's the Clarkson problem all over again. The issue isn't what the market is, it's whether or not the Leafs can win by paying market prices.

 

[Frank E]

My concern isn't really so much that the cap hit is out of line with what Phaneuf would get paid, but whether the Leafs should pay him that much.

Exactly. It's the Clarkson problem all over again. The issue isn't what the market is, it's whether or not the Leafs can win by paying market prices.

I thought the Clarkson problem was that he's not playing up to the level that the market had expected of him (20-25 goals, good physical play in both offensive and defensive zones)?

That problem is different than paying a guy $7 mil for $7 mil performance...assuming he continues to play like he has this past couple of years.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

During his time as a Calgary Flame (2005-2010), Phaneuf led all NHL defencemen in powerplay goals with 48. He averaged 9.6 powerplay goals per season, although granted his first couple of seasons were coming out of the lockout when across the league the powerplay was booming and his numbers dropped each season until the year he was traded.

In the 11-12 NHL season, Phaneuf had 7 powerplay goals which tied him for 3rd among NHL defencemen. Last season he had 3, which put him in the bottom quarter of the top-20. This season he has 0. Clearly, Dion's biggest weapon on the powerplay is his big shot. I'm pretty sure most players don't lose that talent as they age. So what happened to his goal totals? I watched clips of all 7 of his powerplay goals in 11-12, his most successful offensive season as a Leaf in that regard:

PPG #1: D-to-D pass, one-timer slapshot from the right point
PPG #2: D-to-D pass, one-timer slapshot from the right point
PPG #3: LW-to-D pass, one-timer slapshot from the left point
PPG #4: Cross-crease pass tap-in, from the left side
PPG #5: Unassisted slapshot from the right point
PPG #6: Wristshot from the right hashmarks
PPG #7: D-to-D pass, one-timer slapshot from the right hashmarks

So 5 of his 7 goals were scored on one-timers from the right side. I would imagine if you looked at his powerplay goal history from Calgary you would find a similar result. Carlyle has moved him from the right side to the left on the powerplay. It's essentially impossible to set up a D-to-D one-timer in that situation, which is how Phaneuf and probably the majority of the top scoring defencemen score their goals on the powerplay. He's taken Phaneuf's biggest weapon on the powerplay and completely negated it.

 

[Kin]

My concern isn't really so much that the cap hit is out of line with what Phaneuf would get paid, but whether the Leafs should pay him that much.

Exactly. It's the Clarkson problem all over again. The issue isn't what the market is, it's whether or not the Leafs can win by paying market prices.

I thought the Clarkson problem was that he's not playing up to the level that the market had expected of him (20-25 goals, good physical play in both offensive and defensive zones)?

That problem is different than paying a guy $7 mil for $7 mil performance...assuming he continues to play like he has this past couple of years.

I meant the Clarkson problem in a theory sense. An inflated market doesn't justify a contract on its own.