Ranking Prospects 2020-2021

[herman]

I started my list but I got too sad after the top-8.

I had full intention to fill out a list of 25 but I too, got sad at 12 and just trimmed it back.

I'd probably swap 2/3 on yours, unless we're taking AAV into consideration which we aren't here.

The Robertson-Sandin-Kapanen block can really go any way. I'm generally "potential in the next few years trumps what the player did last season" when it comes to these lists but even still I might put Kappy over Robertson for now. I'm not sure Robertson's value in the next few years will be much more than "good scoring middle-6 winger" which Kapanen is already at.

I'm sort of the same re: potential > last season's usage. I know Marner generates a lot (aaaaa loooootttt) of points and it's great and he's fantastic and fun and works hard and plays all three phases of the game to varying degrees of above average to great/elite and is still very young.

That being said, a lot of his points are power play assists, where the power play scheme is built around him touching the puck at some point. So of course he's going to rack up numbers (a la Nikita Zaitsev and Tyson Barrie). How many are legit Marner-only plays? Does he get as many points if he is not feeding Tavares/Matthews/Nylander/JvR? When he was injured, did the PP suffer greatly due to his missing contribution?

I just see more potential in Nylander, I guess. If Tavares and Matthews both went down to injury around the same time, Nylander is the one getting shifted over to centre. If there isn't a perfect pass to be had, I'm betting Nylander's shot goes in more often than Marner's. I like Nylander's NZ carry better. I like Marner's gumption better. And I don't think their passing prowess is that far off from each other, and I don't think their off-puck play is much different either (just one looks like he works harder because of his skating posture). They both have room and runway to improve too and the Leafs are going to be scary for a long time because of these two playing alongside Matthews either way.

I might swap Dermott and Liljegren. Not a popular opinion but I've expressed doubts about Dermott playing in a top-4 role while my fingers are still crossed Liljegren can get there.

After that, who knows. I might go Engvall then Korshkov but if you think Korshkov can play a top-6 role in the next few seasons then I can understand him being over Engvall who despite just finishing his "rookie" season I'm not sure will really grow past the 3rd line.

I think Dermott and Liljegren can both turn into very dependable 4th D as their floor in the next year or two. Liljegren clearly needs more time to adjust to NHL speeds, and Dermott is very nearly there. I like Liljegren's offensive ceiling more (best two+ line passer in our system with Gardiner gone). Sandin looks to me like he has better instincts in both zones than both Dermott and Liljegren, but he's still defensively raw compared to Dermott.

Yeah, I have Korshkov over Engvall because there's top-6 upside. Similar template to Mikheyev. Korshkov's not as fast as either player, but he has better hands in tight and better playmaking than both of them.

 

[herman]

19. Joey Duszak!

An NCAA free agent pickup late last season who didn't start playing defense until 14, and it can be argued still sort of doesn't! It's like getting Tyson Barrie, but before he has a chance to fully settle into a one-dimensional blueline forward, so expect to see Duszak start being trained defensively (a la Liljegren, Dermott) when hockey starts up again (who knows when).

 

[Bullfrog]

I think Dermott and Liljegren can both turn into very dependable 4th D as their floor in the next year or two. Liljegren clearly needs more time to adjust to NHL speeds, and Dermott is very nearly there. I like Liljegren's offensive ceiling more (best two+ line passer in our system with Gardiner gone). Sandin looks to me like he has better instincts in both zones than both Dermott and Liljegren, but he's still defensively raw compared to Dermott.

Agreed. I'm still quite optimistic about Dermott. He's only 23 and he's got all the tools.

 

[Kin]

I think Dermott and Liljegren can both turn into very dependable 4th D as their floor in the next year or two. Liljegren clearly needs more time to adjust to NHL speeds, and Dermott is very nearly there. I like Liljegren's offensive ceiling more (best two+ line passer in our system with Gardiner gone). Sandin looks to me like he has better instincts in both zones than both Dermott and Liljegren, but he's still defensively raw compared to Dermott.

Agreed. I'm still quite optimistic about Dermott. He's only 23 and he's got all the tools.

Dermott seems like he'll be an interesting case in how much a player's career can progress if he's ok at everything but excellent at nothing.

 

[Bullfrog]

My thoughts exactly. I often consider him to be somewhat like Carl Gunnarsson in that regard. He didn't really do anything great nor did he do anything particularly poorly.

 

[herman]

Agreed. I'm still quite optimistic about Dermott. He's only 23 and he's got all the tools.

Dermott seems like he'll be an interesting case in how much a player's career can progress if he's ok at everything but excellent at nothing.

I think he's our best NZ defenseman at the moment, and given more reps against harder competition, it's only a matter of time until he adjusts. He was more than adequate alongside Holl in relief of Muzzin/Rielly injuries considering he floundered a bit earlier in the season having missed training camp. He's a bit like the inverse of Rielly with a similar build. The Leafs are on their way to having 3-4 Dermotts (cheap, mobile, inoffensive defenders) of varying flavours in the lineup over the next handful of seasons.

It'll be interesting to see what a 'full' training camp alongside Rielly will do for Dermott.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

My thoughts exactly. I often consider him to be somewhat like Carl Gunnarsson in that regard. He didn't really do anything great nor did he do anything particularly poorly.

Gunnarsson was always one of our top penalty killers during his time here. I get what you're saying: he might not have been our biggest defender or fastest defender or had the best shot or pass or something like that, but he's someone who had pretty good defensive impacts while playing important minutes.

My worry with Dermott is that he becomes another Connor Carrick. We were always pretty jacked about him and gave him a lot of the same compliments that we give Dermott like how good his possession numbers are. But the same flaws are present too: he generally plays the cushiest minutes and he doesn't play on any specialty teams. That's not to say that having good 3rd pairing defencemen isn't a valuable thing I just don't think we should jump to the conclusions that he can have the same results playing in the top-4.

 

[herman]

Carrick's issue, from afar, always looked like overthinking, leading to late reaction (rather than steering play); coupled with his not as good as Dermott skating agility, he had limitations.

 

[Kin]

Agreed. I'm still quite optimistic about Dermott. He's only 23 and he's got all the tools.

Dermott seems like he'll be an interesting case in how much a player's career can progress if he's ok at everything but excellent at nothing.

I think he's our best NZ defenseman at the moment, and given more reps against harder competition, it's only a matter of time until he adjusts. He was more than adequate alongside Holl in relief of Muzzin/Rielly injuries considering he floundered a bit earlier in the season having missed training camp. He's a bit like the inverse of Rielly with a similar build. The Leafs are on their way to having 3-4 Dermotts (cheap, mobile, inoffensive defenders) of varying flavours in the lineup over the next handful of seasons.

It'll be interesting to see what a 'full' training camp alongside Rielly will do for Dermott.

Yeah, I'm not saying that Dermott can't be valuable with his skillset but I do think what he brings to the table tends to be undervalued by NHL people. Someone like Roman Polak or Hal Gill always found work because a team would get them and be like "Well, our #2 defenseman on the PK position is filled". I'm not sure Dermott does that in any regard.

Where I think it becomes a problem is when you have, like you suggest the Leafs might, several guys who fit that description and cumulatively you can't figure out something like a really effective PK. That's when I think teams get antsy and look to trade all-arounders for specialists.

 

[herman]

18. Pontus Holmberg

Um this is basically might be Par Lindholm. Does all the little coach-happy things, enough to earn him an SHL centre job at 19-20 years old.

 

[herman]

Yeah, I'm not saying that Dermott can't be valuable with his skillset but I do think what he brings to the table tends to be undervalued by NHL people. Someone like Roman Polak or Hal Gill always found work because a team would get them and be like "Well, our #2 defenseman on the PK position is filled". I'm not sure Dermott does that in any regard.

Where I think it becomes a problem is when you have, like you suggest the Leafs might, several guys who fit that description and cumulatively you can't figure out something like a really effective PK. That's when I think teams get antsy and look to trade all-arounders for specialists.

I think this front office isn't going to undervalue Dermott the way other organizations historically have.

From what I can see, they're just identifying the type of hockey seed they want to try to grow, and then planting bunches of them at a time to see what they can get out of it. Maybe some specialize as effective PK, while others are more offensively dynamic, while the vast majority fizzle out. At the baseline, the players that get through to the Marlies will have a solid foundation of hockey sense, mobility, and puck skills.

Given our forward core, I still maintain the Leafs don't really need to invest in buying offense from the blueline. They just need to be comfortable jumping into plays and making lots of good passes to our gamebreaking forwards. Ideally, our defense can focus their development efforts on check attachments and removing pucks from players, and it keeps them cheap in the long run.

 

[herman]

17. Egor Korshkov

So where are we with Korshkov now? He?ll be 24 in July, so he?s nearing the end of any ?prospect? status he had been holding on to. He?s a 6?4? winger, so has more size than almost any current Leaf forward, but he?s also a good skater for his size and can score some goals ? he?s reminding more and more of a Russian version of Pierre Engvall. He had a pretty successful first AHL season this past year, scoring 16 goals in 44 games playing mostly a middle-six checking line role.

He also scored at an 82-goal pace in his brief NHL stint, so that?s pretty great!

More seriously, Korshkov seemed to quickly settle into the same sort of role he always played in the KHL. Playing on 2nd or 3rd line, providing some secondary scoring and being relied upon for his defensive play. He was used on both the powerplay as the net front guy and did so pretty effectively from what Hardev tells me. Perhaps more importantly, he was one of their top few penalty killers and did very well.

 

[Kin]

I think this front office isn't going to undervalue Dermott the way other organizations historically have.

That's my assumption as well given their tendencies but just like "We don't need anyone at the top, we can make decisions by consensus" fell apart as soon as they encountered rough waters the proof will be in the actual construction of a team that can challenge for the cup within those parameters.

 

[Bender]

17. Egor Korshkov

So where are we with Korshkov now? He?ll be 24 in July, so he?s nearing the end of any ?prospect? status he had been holding on to. He?s a 6?4? winger, so has more size than almost any current Leaf forward, but he?s also a good skater for his size and can score some goals ? he?s reminding more and more of a Russian version of Pierre Engvall. He had a pretty successful first AHL season this past year, scoring 16 goals in 44 games playing mostly a middle-six checking line role.

He also scored at an 82-goal pace in his brief NHL stint, so that?s pretty great!

More seriously, Korshkov seemed to quickly settle into the same sort of role he always played in the KHL. Playing on 2nd or 3rd line, providing some secondary scoring and being relied upon for his defensive play. He was used on both the powerplay as the net front guy and did so pretty effectively from what Hardev tells me. Perhaps more importantly, he was one of their top few penalty killers and did very well.

I get that maybe they thought they needed some size and they already had something in Bracco.... but I will never get over them passing on DeBrincat.

 

[herman]

I get that maybe they thought they needed some size and they already had something in Bracco.... but I will never get over them passing on DeBrincat.

I like DeBrincat, but the bigger miss is Sam Girard.

 

[Bender]

I get that maybe they thought they needed some size and they already had something in Bracco.... but I will never get over them passing on DeBrincat.

I like DeBrincat, but the bigger miss is Sam Girard.

True, and I mean I didn't follow Girard much but I was well aware of DeBrincat before the draft so that's what it felt like. I remember sitting there on draft day going.... Really?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

True, and I mean I didn't follow Girard much but I was well aware of DeBrincat before the draft so that's what it felt like. I remember sitting there on draft day going.... Really?

Was going through the draft thread from then and DeBrincat and Girard were both often brought up as targets that weekend before the actual pick. Someone even suggested Carter Hart,which would have also been nice.

It's a good thing we nailed our 1st rounder that year at least...

 

[Kin]

I think part of the pre-draft Girard mania was just that the team had so much already up front prospect-wise that it seemed like the logical thing to do was take as many big swings at high potential D prospects in the second and third rounds as possible. In 2015 I was big on Oliver Kylington for the same reason.

That the Leafs never did that remains a fairly perplexing thing. It's obviously kind of operating with hindsight after so many of their 2nd/3rd round picks from then look unimpressive but even if Bracco did look like a good pick right now it'd just be adding to the glut of wingers.

 

[Bender]

I think part of the pre-draft Girard mania was just that the team had so much already up front prospect-wise that it seemed like the logical thing to do was take as many big swings at high potential D prospects in the second and third rounds as possible. In 2015 I was big on Oliver Kylington for the same reason.

That the Leafs never did that remains a fairly perplexing thing. It's obviously kind of operating with hindsight after so many of their 2nd/3rd round picks from then look unimpressive but even if Bracco did look like a good pick right now it'd just be adding to the glut of wingers.

I mean they say to not draft for positional need but at some point you have to slot those positions one way or another. You're not always going to get a 1:1 trade worth your time, you may have to begrudgingly part with more than you bargained for to get what you actually need.

 

[herman]

16. Denis Malgin

I liked Mason Marchment, but I also really liked this trade. Ultimately they both probably pan out to bottom-3 forwards but Malgin looks to have a higher floor and slightly higher ceiling and younger, so this was a no brainer for someone we plucked out of ECHL purgatory.