Ranking Prospects

[Kin]

I'd be very interested to see how Gauthier turns out if they use him like Patrice Bergeron down in Orlando, as opposed to a 3rd line centre on the Marlies.

I don't think they should develop him based on the pretty slim possibility he becomes a top line or top 6 player as opposed to focusing on his more realistic top end as being a bottom 6 player.

 

[Highlander]

Can we still trade guy or is that window closed?  At this point I would like to see Bozak gone.

 

[herman]

I'd be very interested to see how Gauthier turns out if they use him like Patrice Bergeron down in Orlando, as opposed to a 3rd line centre on the Marlies.

I don't think they should develop him based on the pretty slim possibility he becomes a top line or top 6 player as opposed to focusing on his more realistic top end as being a bottom 6 player.

I just looked up Dubas' remarks on Gauthier again, and you're right, he's penciled in for the Marlies, but they're looking to expand his offensive role on the team.

From: https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2015/07/09/kyle-dubas-on-frederik-gauthier-william-nylander-and-more/

[Gauthier will] be with the Marlies. Sheldon really likes him. The more he sees him out here on the ice, he likes him even more. For us, we don?t just want to have him pigeonholed as this defensive center, we want him to grow as a player, we want him to expand offensively, we want him to be more assertive defensively ? [Rimouski] was great spot for his development that he played so much. You could see it, especially in the Memorial Cup after the end of a long playoff run ? especially in the later games in the tournament ? you could see him start to try to conserve his energy and be a bit more passive and play a bit more in containment on defence. We?re going to want him to be more assertive, quicker, close on people quicker and get the puck moving up the ice, and I think you?ll see his offensive game expand from there.

Perhaps the Marlies top six is looking like:
Leipsic - Nylander - Brown
Soshnikov - Gauthier - Kapanen

 

[Kin]

I just looked up Dubas' remarks on Gauthier again, and you're right, he's penciled in for the Marlies, but they're looking to expand his offensive role on the team.

I'm sure they would love him to grow as a player. Realistically being a decent offensive option is probably going to be what separates a defensive player from 3rd or 4th line duties and obviously they'd prefer the former.

I don't think they're going to put too many eggs into that basket though.

 

[herman]

Peter Holland is PPP's #7 T25U25, which means the top 6 are going to be some listing of:

• Nazem Kadri
• Jake Gardiner
• Morgan Rielly
• William Nylander
• Mitch Marner
• Kasperi Kapanen

I think it shakes out as: Nylander, Marner, Rielly, Kadri, Gardiner, Kapanen

 

[Highlander]

how about Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Kadri, Gardiner?  We should wager!

 

[Bender]

how about Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Kadri, Gardiner?  We should wager!

1. Mitch Marner
2. Morgan Rielly
3. William Nylander
4. Nazem Kadri
5. Jake Gardiner
6. Kasperi Kapanen

I think the top 3-4 are fairly tough. It depends on criteria. Is Nazem Kadri being in the NHL worth more than Marner killing it in the O?  Or is Nylander doing well in the AHL worth more than either? Who knows.

 

[herman]

Yeah, the criteria for each voter is a bit different and far from absolutely objective (just like mine!).

I feel like I have a pretty good read on Kadri (just above average 1st line centre with occasional flashes of brilliance) and Gardiner (2/3D) now, which is why I put the potential of Nylander, Marner, and Rielly above them. Kapanen is still young and has some flaws to iron out, but the ceiling is definitely higher than the NHL players he surpassed on this list (Holland/Panik).

Marner has the most to prove still of the top three, but he has all the right tools and attitude. Nylander has dominated everything he's been involved in and looks to be on pace to do the same this year with a full season in the AHL. Rielly is definitely an NHLer, but hasn't yet turned the corner to take on the 1D workload; it would've been really helpful to see that 1 more year in Junior + WJHC following his draft.

 

[skrackle]

how about Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Kadri, Gardiner?  We should wager!

1. Mitch Marner
2. Morgan Rielly
3. William Nylander
4. Nazem Kadri
5. Jake Gardiner
6. Kasperi Kapanen

I think the top 3-4 are fairly tough. It depends on criteria. Is Nazem Kadri being in the NHL worth more than Marner killing it in the O?  Or is Nylander doing well in the AHL worth more than either? Who knows.

That's a nice list of players. It will be fun to watch these guys develop. It also really illustrates the necessity of keeping the focus on drafting for the near future.

Ideally, the Leafs draft high and often over the next 2-3 seasons.

 

[mr grieves]

how about Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Kadri, Gardiner?  We should wager!

1. Mitch Marner
2. Morgan Rielly
3. William Nylander
4. Nazem Kadri
5. Jake Gardiner
6. Kasperi Kapanen

I think the top 3-4 are fairly tough. It depends on criteria. Is Nazem Kadri being in the NHL worth more than Marner killing it in the O?  Or is Nylander doing well in the AHL worth more than either? Who knows.

That's a nice list of players. It will be fun to watch these guys develop. It also really illustrates the necessity of keeping the focus on drafting for the near future.

Ideally, the Leafs draft high and often over the next 2-3 seasons.

I really like signing short term deals for the likes of Winnik, Santo, and others who can be converted into 2nd and 3rd round picks at the trade deadline, and the current management seems to be savvy enough to get rid of players on favorable but expiring deals. That seems a pretty sustainable way to draft often.

But Leafs have been drafting high a lot lately -- top ten in 3 of the last 4 years. Given that they haven't been screwing up completely, do you really think it's likely they'll still be drafting high in three years? How many teams draft in the top 10 that often? I'm guessing only the more ineptly managed ones...

 

[Kin]

Or, you know, where a team drafts in the top 10 matters somewhat.

 

[skrackle]

how about Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Kadri, Gardiner?  We should wager!

1. Mitch Marner
2. Morgan Rielly
3. William Nylander
4. Nazem Kadri
5. Jake Gardiner
6. Kasperi Kapanen

I think the top 3-4 are fairly tough. It depends on criteria. Is Nazem Kadri being in the NHL worth more than Marner killing it in the O?  Or is Nylander doing well in the AHL worth more than either? Who knows.

That's a nice list of players. It will be fun to watch these guys develop. It also really illustrates the necessity of keeping the focus on drafting for the near future.

Ideally, the Leafs draft high and often over the next 2-3 seasons.

I really like signing short term deals for the likes of Winnik, Santo, and others who can be converted into 2nd and 3rd round picks at the trade deadline, and the current management seems to be savvy enough to get rid of players on favorable but expiring deals. That seems a pretty sustainable way to draft often.

But Leafs have been drafting high a lot lately -- top ten in 3 of the last 4 years. Given that they haven't been screwing up completely, do you really think it's likely they'll still be drafting high in three years? How many teams draft in the top 10 that often? I'm guessing only the more ineptly managed ones...

I expect the Leafs to be pretty bad this year, so if they end up with a great draft pick, plus whatever other picks/prospects they can trade for, maybe that will do it. They have some good prospects now, but I have a feeling they don't yet have the elite franchise player(s) that will win them a Cup.

Of course, I could be wrong on that as I haven't seen any of the younger guys play yet. But, the Leafs are attempting to dig themselves out of a very deep hole and I don't see it turning around dramatically in a season or two. Now is the time for them to keep stocking up on picks and prospects and get their development on track.

Maybe by 3 seasons from now, they are turning the corner. I hope they are. I do believe Babcock when he says there is pain coming, but it's more like pain is continuing. If the new management starts building the team properly instead of the shuffle the deck and hope for the best philosophy of the Nonis era, then 2-3 years isn't a big deal to me.

 

[mr grieves]

how about Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Kadri, Gardiner?  We should wager!

1. Mitch Marner
2. Morgan Rielly
3. William Nylander
4. Nazem Kadri
5. Jake Gardiner
6. Kasperi Kapanen

I think the top 3-4 are fairly tough. It depends on criteria. Is Nazem Kadri being in the NHL worth more than Marner killing it in the O?  Or is Nylander doing well in the AHL worth more than either? Who knows.

That's a nice list of players. It will be fun to watch these guys develop. It also really illustrates the necessity of keeping the focus on drafting for the near future.

Ideally, the Leafs draft high and often over the next 2-3 seasons.

I really like signing short term deals for the likes of Winnik, Santo, and others who can be converted into 2nd and 3rd round picks at the trade deadline, and the current management seems to be savvy enough to get rid of players on favorable but expiring deals. That seems a pretty sustainable way to draft often.

But Leafs have been drafting high a lot lately -- top ten in 3 of the last 4 years. Given that they haven't been screwing up completely, do you really think it's likely they'll still be drafting high in three years? How many teams draft in the top 10 that often? I'm guessing only the more ineptly managed ones...

I expect the Leafs to be pretty bad this year, so if they end up with a great draft pick, plus whatever other picks/prospects they can trade for, maybe that will do it. They have some good prospects now, but I have a feeling they don't yet have the elite franchise player(s) that will win them a Cup.

They haven't drafted high enough to have the elite franchise player that makes for a perennial contender, no. But, as Nik points out, it matters where you draft, and they've been drafting high enough that I don't think they can engineer the suck necessary to draft in the top five through 2018.

They've already got Kadri and Rielly on the NHL roster. A lot of folks are saying Nylander might become a regular after the trade deadline and will be a full-time NHLer in 2016-17 (and, for a guy drafted outside the coveted top 3, he is rated the 6th best prospect in the NHL). I don't think Marner's the sort to spend a full year in the AHL (4th best prospect in league?), so he'll be up in 2016-17. And, if the Leafs are as bad as their roster suggests they'll be this season, they're looking at a top 3 pick for 2016. I don't recall the numbers, but not too many players drafted in the top 3 are sent back to junior.

So... I don't think they're contenders after next year's draft. But, even just looking at the first round picks and how they graduate into the NHL, I don't see how they don't have enough talent to be much worse than a young, borderline playoff team in 2016-17 (drafting 10-15).

Maybe by 3 seasons from now, they are turning the corner. I hope they are. I do believe Babcock when he says there is pain coming, but it's more like pain is continuing. If the new management starts building the team properly instead of the shuffle the deck and hope for the best philosophy of the Nonis era, then 2-3 years isn't a big deal to me.

I guess the question is what you mean by 'turn the corner.' Let's say there are bottom feeders/ tanks (who draft top 3), perennial losers & the deeply unlucky & 'rebuilding' (4-10), teams on the way up/down (10-20), contenders (21-30). Seems to me there are a lot of corners to turn between 'in a position to draft franchise talent that'll win a Cup' and 'contender.'

How long do you really think until they've 'turned the corner' from bottom feeder to something that doesn't pick at the very top of the draft?

 

[Highlander]

Herman & Bender win todays version of pick a pick; #6 is Kapanen as the big the H & B predicted.

 

[Kin]

But, as Nik points out, it matters where you draft, and they've been drafting high enough that I don't think they can engineer the suck necessary to draft in the top five through 2018.

That assumes that the players in the Leafs system not only make the NHL in the next couple of years but that they're immediately significant difference makers. That's something that is genuinely uncommon for players picked where the Leafs have been picking. The Leafs have not been picking at the spots that enabled teams like the Lightning, Penguins or Blackhawks to make a quick turnaround.

And, if the Leafs are as bad as their roster suggests they'll be this season, they're looking at a top 3 pick for 2016. I don't recall the numbers, but not too many players drafted in the top 3 are sent back to junior.

Again, your point only works as a vague generality rather than a pesky specific.

In the five drafts prior to this year, 7 out of 15 players taken in the top three spent a significant amount of their next season in Junior(I'm including Draisatl/Galchenyuk who played partial seasons in the NHL but who didn't make much of an impact there regardless)

Of course if you really break it down it goes:

#1 Pick: 0
#2 Pick: 2
#3 Pick: 5

None of the #3 picks in the league over the last 5 years had impactful rookie seasons and 4 of the 5 spent their entire post-draft year in junior. Jonathan Huberdeau is the closest any of them have come to becoming an impact player.

Go back another 5 years and you have more success at the #3 pick with Toews and Matt Duchene in the picture but you also include Jack Johnson, Zach Bogosian and Kyle Turris. The idea that just getting a "Top 3" pick will lead to a quick turnaround is far from fact and, in actuality, the odds are pretty long against it. For the Leafs to have a quick turnaround they'll need legitimate franchise players who:

A) Usually do not develop from where the Leafs have drafted in recent years
B) Usually only turn up in the top 2 picks in the draft

So the Leafs need to not only be bad this year to have a really good shot at a player like that, they need to be lucky at the lottery too. So it's actually a pretty good bet that as bad as they'll be this year, they'll probably be for a year or two afterwards as well.

 

[bustaheims]

Timing is an issue as well. You can usually be assured that you end up with a pretty good player drafting 1st overall, but, every so often, the best available guy is Chris Phillips. And, sometimes, that guy is good, but not franchise level good - like Fleury, RNH or Yakupov. There's a lot of variables at play.

 

[Kin]

Timing is an issue as well. You can usually be assured that you end up with a pretty good player drafting 1st overall, but, every so often, the best available guy is Chris Phillips. And, sometimes, that guy is good, but not franchise level good - like Fleury, RNH or Yakupov. There's a lot of variables at play.

True. Also, even in a best case scenario anyone other than a Crosby/McDavid type prospect is going to take a year at least until they're making a huge impact. Players like Stamkos, Tavares and Hall all look like they're absolutely legitimate #1 picks but between the three of them their first seasons average out to:

75 GP, 23 goals, 47 points.

So not exactly guys who come in and take teams to the next level. In fact, after drafting those guys at #1 this is where those teams drafted the next year:

Tampa: 2nd
NYI: 5th
EDM: 1st

I could be wrong about this but in the last 10 drafts it seems to me that the only instances of a team drafting a player at #1, that player having a pretty significant season and the team taking a big step forward are Chicago with Kane, Colorado with Mackinnon and Florida with Ekblad. But what do those situations have in common? All of those picks were at the end of runs where those teams made multiple top 3 picks. Colorado had already taken Landeskog and Duchene in the top 3(and their "improvement" was short lived), Florida had Barkov and Huberdeau, Chicago had Toews and Barker(who, admittedly, didn't play a huge role in their improvement).

So it usually takes teams multiple shots at top 3 picks and those players coming together for a team to make that leap forward. Even the Penguins. They take Sidney Crosby after drafting #1 and #2 the previous two years, he has one of the all-time great rookie seasons and they finish...with the second worst record in the league.

 

[bustaheims]

So it usually takes teams multiple shots at top 3 picks and those players coming together for a team to make that leap forward. Even the Penguins. They take Sidney Crosby after drafting #1 and #2 the previous two years, he has one of the all-time great rookie seasons and they finish...with the second worst record in the league.

Also, to really turn from a bottom feeder into a Cup contender, you have hit a couple homeruns outside the 1st round. You have find the Keiths, Letangs, etc, and they're much harder to put a timeline on finding. If you're lucky, you already have a couple guys like that in the system when you're bottoming out, but most teams don't, and a lot of teams never find them.

 

[Frank E]

So it usually takes teams multiple shots at top 3 picks and those players coming together for a team to make that leap forward. Even the Penguins. They take Sidney Crosby after drafting #1 and #2 the previous two years, he has one of the all-time great rookie seasons and they finish...with the second worst record in the league.

Also, to really turn from a bottom feeder into a Cup contender, you have hit a couple homeruns outside the 1st round. You have find the Keiths, Letangs, etc, and they're much harder to put a timeline on finding. If you're lucky, you already have a couple guys like that in the system when you're bottoming out, but most teams don't, and a lot of teams never find them.

Yep.  And that's probably why the Leafs are drafting in larger numbers...increasing your probability of drafting an impact player. 

 

[bustaheims]

Yep.  And that's probably why the Leafs are drafting in larger numbers...increasing your probability of drafting an impact player.

That's the hope, yeah. Also why they overhauled the scouting staff. Trying to bring in better scouts, scouts with different perspectives, fresh eyes, etc. Gotta do everything you can to maximize your chances at finding quality NHLers outside the 1st round, and finding those unpolished gems.