Sharp signs 5 year extension with Hawks.

[dappleganger]

You probably also put little value in a stat like HR per at bat.

Compared to a proper cumulative number like WARP? Yeah.

I mean, for starters, it assumes all ice time is equal, which we know isn't true.

Sure, but it also doesn't help that you say Grabs is way better player because he scored 5 more points than another player while playing 3 minutes more a game. All ice time is time on the ice and some players are better at using their given ice time to create points. It's a broad stroke to be sure. 

Equal Ice time*: Grabs had more power play time per game than the players we mentioned earlier so if anything Grabs had more higher quality playing than the other two.

No stat is perfect because parameters change. Everyone plays with different players, against different opposing lines and play for different coaches. All effect individual performance.

One stat doesn't tell the whole story and doesn't take all things into consideration but it can used to get a comparison on different players. Don't dismiss it because it doesn't serve your purpose.

 

[Kin]

Sure, but it also doesn't help that you say Grabs is way better player because he scored 5 more points than another player while playing 3 minutes more a game.

Which is a pretty ridiculous strawman. I've said Grabo has the edge on Leino due to being a centre and being a much more productive goal scorer. Likewise I think the actual accomplishments Grabo produced outstrip the projected accomplishment's of Fleischmann's half-season.

cw wrote a post a while back about how TOI/points isn't a terribly great stat because it doesn't tend to translate when those players then get increased ice-time. Likewise, without knowing more about how those players are used I'm not inclined to pay it much mind when I know for a fact that Grabo's line was often used in defensive situations. Grabovski got roughly 8 times as much SH ice time as those two players did combined.

There's a threshold here. Unless I know a stat's a useful measurement I'm not going to automatically give it credence simply because it is a stat. Without knowing about the way those players were used, I'm not going to assume anything. You shouldn't just because it serves your purpose.

 

[dappleganger]

Sure, but it also doesn't help that you say Grabs is way better player because he scored 5 more points than another player while playing 3 minutes more a game.

Which is a pretty ridiculous strawman. I've said Grabo has the edge on Leino due to being a centre and being a much more productive goal scorer. Likewise I think the actual accomplishments Grabo produced outstrip the projected accomplishment's of Fleischmann's half-season.

cw wrote a post a while back about how TOI/points isn't a terribly great stat because it doesn't tend to translate when those players then get increased ice-time. Likewise, without knowing more about how those players are used I'm not inclined to pay it much mind when I know for a fact that Grabo's line was often used in defensive situations. Grabovski got roughly 8 times as much SH ice time as those two players did combined.

There's a threshold here. Unless I know a stat's a useful measurement I'm not going to automatically give it credence simply because it is a stat. Without knowing about the way those players were used, I'm not going to assume anything. You shouldn't just because it serves your purpose.

You bring up SH time (Grabs had 60s more a game) but you negate the 50 seconds a game more Grabs had on the power play.  :

I'll let you figure it out Nik. One player gets 53 points and another player gets 71 points. Which player is the one who scores 58 points closer to?

I just took exception with you calling TOI vs. points a ridiculous stat. It is a good indication of the effectiveness of a player in the broad sense.

Next year, both those players won't be as good as Grabs, I'll call that now, but I think you can make a case they are in Grabs league when it comes to production. Grabs is better, we both know that.

 

[Kin]

You bring up SH time (Grabs had 60s more a game) but you negate the 50 seconds a game more Grabs had on the power play.  :

I brought up SH time because it re-enforces something we already know about Grabo, that being that he was a defensively responsible enough player that Wilson often had him out in key defensive situations. That the other guys didn't is evidence, not conclusive but circumstantial, that they probably weren't used in similar situations. That can drastically effect the way a player can score during his ES ice time. It's why TOI/P isn't a great stat without a really good familiarity with how the players are used.

I'll let you figure it out Nik. One player gets 53 points and another player gets 71 points. Which player is the one who scores 58 points closer to?

But none of us are so simple that we're going to stop our consideration of offensive players at their point totals. Like I said, there's the premium put on goal scorers. In terms of goal scoring, it goes Sharp - 34, Grabo - 29 and Leino - 19. To me that's just as significant, if not more so, than the point gap.

Likewise, it ignores context. Sharp scored his points playing the majority of his time with Kane and Toews. That's going to help his point totals more than either of the other guys. To simply look at the totals and ignore the conditions where they come from doesn't really tell us much.

It's like the issue of PP time. Did Grabo get more PP time? Yes. But Leino's PP time seems to have come with Richards/Carter or Richards/Giroux. I don't know that Grabo's more time outweighs the better conditions Leino was playing under.

I just took exception with you calling TOI vs. points a ridiculous stat.

Because it is. If Colton Orr scores a fluke goal in his 6 minutes he hasn't had an offensive game that's three times as effective as Mikhail Grabovski if he scores despite the fact that his P/TOI will be three times better.

Like I said, if there were a better indication that a player's scoring automatically increases as his TOI does then, yeah, it would be indicative of the potential for future growth but to use it as a measurement of a player's effectiveness doesn't even pass the most basic smell test.

 

[dappleganger]

You bring up SH time (Grabs had 60s more a game) but you negate the 50 seconds a game more Grabs had on the power play.  :

I brought up SH time because it re-enforces something we already know about Grabo, that being that he was a defensively responsible enough player that Wilson often had him out in key defensive situations. That the other guys didn't is evidence, not conclusive but circumstantial, that they probably weren't used in similar situations. That can drastically effect the way a player can score during his ES ice time. It's why TOI/P isn't a great stat without a really good familiarity with how the players are used.

Grabs was 383rd in SH ice time. More than half the league spent more time on the penalty kill than Grabs so I wouldn't call it substantial.

If you think the reason Grabs didn't score more was because he was used often in defensive situations, I can assure you he had the green light to try and scorel. The only circumstances that could breed credence to your philosophy would be the last ten minutes of the 3rd period of a close game the Leafs were winning. How much time did he actually spend doing that? This is totally conjecture on your part. 

I'll let you figure it out Nik. One player gets 53 points and another player gets 71 points. Which player is the one who scores 58 points closer to?

But none of us are so simple that we're going to stop our consideration of offensive players at their point totals. Like I said, there's the premium put on goal scorers. In terms of goal scoring, it goes Sharp - 34, Grabo - 29 and Leino - 19. To me that's just as significant, if not more so, than the point gap.

I'm talking about ppg. Care to discuss? We can talk about Connolly's 13 goals and and 4.5m paycheck if you like. Assists aren't worthless. 

Likewise, it ignores context. Sharp scored his points playing the majority of his time with Kane and Toews. That's going to help his point totals more than either of the other guys. To simply look at the totals and ignore the conditions where they come from doesn't really tell us much.

Sharp played the most with Hossa and Kopecky. Mac and Kuley are comparable.

It's like the issue of PP time. Did Grabo get more PP time? Yes. But Leino's PP time seems to have come with Richards/Carter or Richards/Giroux. I don't know that Grabo's more time outweighs the better conditions Leino was playing under.

I don't know either, but I know who I'd rather play with. I already discussed teammates making a difference so let's move on.

I just took exception with you calling TOI vs. points a ridiculous stat.

Because it is. If Colton Orr scores a fluke goal in his 6 minutes he hasn't had an offensive game that's three times as effective as Mikhail Grabovski if he scores despite the fact that his P/TOI will be three times better.

Yeah, that tends to even out during a season. lol. Take a look at the top p/toi and you'll get a clear indication on who the better players in the league are. I know simply giving a guy more toi doesn't automatically translate into more points (look at Vik Stalberg) but some GM's out there are hoping it does. (it worked for Grabs  ) 

Fleischmann averaged over 4 minutes more toi after his trade from washington and posted a .95ppg with the Avs (up from his .43ppg with the Caps.)

Sometimes ice time can make a difference and obviously there's a GM banking on that ridiculous stat.

(Sorry Nik, I like to argue)

 

[Kin]

Grabs was 383rd in SH ice time. More than half the league spent more time on the penalty kill than Grabs so I wouldn't call it substantial.

If you think the reason Grabs didn't score more was because he was used often in defensive situations, I can assure you he had the green light to try and scorel. The only circumstances that could breed credence to your philosophy would be the last ten minutes of the 3rd period of a close game the Leafs were winning. How much time did he actually spend doing that? This is totally conjecture on your part. 

No, it's not. It's a pretty simple concept. If Grabovski is sometimes used in defensive situations it means he's often going up against the other team's better offensive lines. That makes the conditions under which he's trying to score less advantageous than it would be otherwise.

I'm talking about ppg. Care to discuss? We can talk about Connolly's 13 goals and and 4.5m paycheck if you like. Assists aren't worthless.

Yes, you are. But that's because you're refusing to acknowledge the pretty significant advantage Grabovski has as a goal scorer or the fact that goal scoring is at a premium. Assists aren't worthless, they're just worth less.

As I said, we're not so simple that our discussion of offensive players ends at point totals. GM's certainly aren't.

Sharp played the most with Hossa and Kopecky.

Not true, according to Dobber. He got 12.5% with Hossa and Kopecky, 17.87 with Kane/Toes.

I don't know either, but I know who I'd rather play with. I already discussed teammates making a difference so let's move on.

Yes, I'm sure you'd like to move on from one of the glaring holes in your argument but there's a simple reality here of what Grabo's season was. It was closer in value to Sharp's than Leino's, even if it blows our ppg minds.

Yeah, that tends to even out during a season. lol.

So it's not a small-scale measure of offensive effectiveness. It's not much of a large scale one either.

I know simply giving a guy more toi doesn't automatically translate into more points (look at Vik Stalberg) but some GM's out there are hoping it does. (it worked for Grabs  ) 

Fleischmann averaged over 4 minutes more toi after his trade from washington and posted a .95ppg with the Avs (up from his .43ppg with the Caps.)

Sometimes ice time can make a difference and obviously there's a GM banking on that ridiculous stat.

All of this is pretty meaningless conjecture on your part. Assuming that Fleiscmann and Leino got the contracts that they did not because the market for 20 goal, 30 assist guys is what it was but because their values are being inflated because you think GM's are foolish enough to pay serious attention to points/TOI is ridiculous nonsense .

You're putting the cart before the horse. Grabs' ice time was a result of his effective play, not the reason for it.

 

[dappleganger]

Dobber's Rankings for August 2011:*

45. Patrick Sharp
94. Ville Leino
97. Mikhail Grabovski
114. Tomas Fleischmann

*Rankings are based on keeper leagues.

 

[cw]

cw wrote a post a while back about how TOI/points isn't a terribly great stat because it doesn't tend to translate when those players then get increased ice-time. Likewise, without knowing more about how those players are used I'm not inclined to pay it much mind when I know for a fact that Grabo's line was often used in defensive situations. Grabovski got roughly 8 times as much SH ice time as those two players did combined.

I feel pretty strongly that generally, within reasonable limits, scoring is a function of ice time given. BUT the type of ice time they're given is a significant factor. If two very similarly skilled players are getting the same ice time and one player gets 2 mins/game on the 2nd PP unit and 2 mins/game PK while the other guy gets 4 mins/game on the 1st PP unit and no PK, I expect, all other things being equal,  that the similarly skilled player with more PP time and no PK will score significantly more because he's getting significantly more opportunity to score.

I've never done the statistical analysis to prove that but I've seen that trend so often with players and scoring stats with ice time. It seemed pointless to bother to prove that point as it strikes me as pretty basic common sense. The PPG stat has real limitations.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Why don't we wait and see what Grabovski does next season before we start handing him 5+ million a season? Last year at this time a good group of Leaf fans wanted him moved out of town.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Why don't we wait and see what Grabovski does next season before we start handing him 5+ million a season? Last year at this time a good group of Leaf fans wanted him moved out of town.

Uh-oh.  I've already offered him the deal.

 

[L K]

Dobber's Rankings for August 2011:*

45. Patrick Sharp
94. Ville Leino
97. Mikhail Grabovski
114. Tomas Fleischmann

*Rankings are based on keeper leagues.

Of course fantasy keeper leagues take into account defensive play and faceoffs.

 

[dappleganger]

Dobber's Rankings for August 2011:*

45. Patrick Sharp
94. Ville Leino
97. Mikhail Grabovski
114. Tomas Fleischmann

*Rankings are based on keeper leagues.

Of course fantasy keeper leagues take into account defensive play and faceoffs.

I'm sorry, I couldn't find a list of defensive rankings.

 

[maplesyrup]

Dobber's Rankings for August 2011:*

45. Patrick Sharp
94. Ville Leino
97. Mikhail Grabovski
114. Tomas Fleischmann

*Rankings are based on keeper leagues.

Of course fantasy keeper leagues take into account defensive play and faceoffs.

I'm sorry, I couldn't find a list of defensive rankings.

Grabovski's agent better find one quick if he hopes to approach anything close to Sharp money.

 

[Kin]

Of course fantasy keeper leagues take into account defensive play and faceoffs.

Well, fantasy leagues don't care in the slightest about context. If Sharp's totals are jacked up because of his linemates it doesn't negatively affect his ranking at all.

 

[L K]

Dobber's Rankings for August 2011:*

45. Patrick Sharp
94. Ville Leino
97. Mikhail Grabovski
114. Tomas Fleischmann

*Rankings are based on keeper leagues.

Of course fantasy keeper leagues take into account defensive play and faceoffs.

I'm sorry, I couldn't find a list of defensive rankings.

Well, that's the thing.  Fantasy sports are a terrible representation of player quality simply because they only assess easily measured stats and don't take into account quality of linemates, non-measurable stats like defense, and other things.  Playing a full season and putting up points are what you want when ranking a player.