Steve Stamkos?

[L K]

I don't think Toronto is the perfect fit for Stamkos at this point, but are the Leafs really 3-4 years away from contending if they sign Stamkos?  I mean, yeah, if they don't fix their goaltending, sure but let's say Bernier figures it out or they make a trade in the offseason along the lines of JVR/Stuff for Anderson/Vatanen.

Pittsburgh made the playoffs in Crosby/Malkin's second season (won 47 games), make the finals in their 3rd season and win it in their 4th.  To me the definition of contending isn't really "being the best in the league", it's a team that's good enough that they can potentially beat anyone.

I fully expect next year to be tough because a lot of rookies means a lot of guys who are potentially 50-90 point players are going to score at 30-50 point paces.  But while I wouldn't equate Stamkos to Crosby, or Matthews to Malkin, you are also talking about adding Nylander and Marner to that list.  It's still a year or two before this team is good but I think adding a #1 pick like Matthews AND a premier established NHL goalscorer absolutely accelerates the rebuild.

So I don't really buy that argument that Stamkos is then coming to a team that is 3-4 years away.  I think he sacrifices 1-2 years maybe but this team is a hell of a lot closer if he does end up here.

I do buy the argument that he's just not a great fit because he comes in as arguably the #2 guy behind Matthews right away AND given that Tampa keeps moving him away from center I'm not entirely convinced that he's guaranteed to keep a spot up the middle in Toronto either.

 

[sneakyray]

Also just to nitpick a little.  Max money isn't kane and toews money.  Max money is 14 million per year.  So on a 7 year deal that's like a hair short of 100 million dollars.

 

[jdh1]

They don't need Stamkos. Keep the money and sign up the good prospects that are coming into the system. Need a top goalie right now.

 

[Peter D.]

To clarify more, here's my transcription of O'Sullivan's opinion, as a player, about Stamkos not likely wanting to sign in Toronto:

"It?s not because the Leafs aren?t completely interested, I think they would be.  But when I look at it from a player?s perspective [....]  for me, he?s looking at going to a place that is going to have their new #1 guy for a decade, hopefully, if things go well for Auston and the team.  So I just don?t see how it makes sense for Steven more importantly than anybody else;  I don?t know why he would want to go there and walk into a situation where they?re realistically 3 or 4 years from really being a team that?s contending and then to be their 2nd line centre or to play wing.  That?s one of the reasons he?s unhappy in Tampa because he?s been put on the wing, you know Tyler Johnson has kind of come in and taken a little bit of the ice time that was usually given to him without thinking twice about it.  So that?s really kind of where my thoughts come from.  If he?s looking for the money that I believe he is, which would be a max deal like Kane and Toews have, I don?t see a lot of teams even being interested in that, and I don?t see a team wanting to pay a guy that much money that?s not even going to be their #1 guy."

While I don't necessarily disagree with this, there seems to be a lot of moving parts with this argument.  Which teams out there: a) have the type of cap space to throw money at him; b) a #1 centre role needing to be filled; and c) based on the previous point, would be a contending team if Stamkos is coming in and being the #1 centre without a doubt. 

If going to a contender or to a team on the cusp of contention is a big influence on his decision, those teams will have a solid foundation already and fact is he is going to have to share the spotlight and/or accept a different role than he is used to. 

Otherwise he should just sign in Carolina.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

I'm torn. On one hand, the idea of Stamkos/Matthews/Kadri down the middle with Marner, Nylander, JVR, etc. on the wings is pretty appealing. But the max I would be willing to do, had I the choice, would be $9M/year. Stamkos is really going to have to value playing for his boyhood team to take that deal.

I'm curious how many teams could actually afford to pay him $10+/year, and how many of those teams wouldn't be scared off by his injury history. I would think the list is fairly short.

 

[Redleaf]

I'm torn. On one hand, the idea of Stamkos/Matthews/Kadri down the middle with Marner, Nylander, JVR, etc. on the wings is pretty appealing. But the max I would be willing to do, had I the choice, would be $9M/year. Stamkos is really going to have to value playing for his boyhood team to take that deal.

I'm curious how many teams could actually afford to pay him $10+/year, and how many of those teams wouldn't be scared off by his injury history. I would think the list is fairly short.

I would wager that list is longer than you would think.

 

[jonlleafs]

While getting Matthews is going to be huge for the franchise, I don't buy that we don't need him now that we have Matthews.  The cap hit is gonna suck, but when can you get a guy like Stamkos at 26yrs of age at his prime?  Not often at all nowadays.  There are a few positives in adding him to the teams that I can't overlook:

1.  A superstar Canadian-boy who loves the Leafs and wants to play for the Leafs.
2.  A player who steps in as the leader (and/or Captain) of the biggest hockey franchise in the world.  A guy the whole Leafs nation can get behind (i.e. Gilmour)
3.  Matthews is not going to be a #1 center his rookie season.  If he is thrust into that role, it may do more harm than good.  Having him start on the 3rd line is probably best where he'll be shielded from other #1 centers.  So having Stamkos then Kadri /Nylander above him in the depth chart for next season is probably the best way to go. 
4.  Again, Matthews will be shield from the constant scrutiny of this city and the media.  Stamkos is older and can handle most of the focus of the media on him. 
5.  We immediately become closer to becoming a playoff team and contender.  We could be knocking on the playoff door if we have him on the team next season not that we are expecting it of course.  They could surprise us next season.  Nylander was on a tear for a while there along with Soshnikov. 
6.  We would have some serious offensive threats on 3 lines versus 2.

The only thing will be salary that is a negative that I can see signing Stamkos, which everyone's already delved into.  If we can figure that out with him, then I don't see why we don't sign Stamkos. 

 

[Kin]

Some counterpoints:

1. I can only speak for myself but that doesn't mean a ton to me.

2. To be honest, I have some concerns re: Stamkos and Leadership. One of the reasons he seems to be on the outs with his coach is he's upset at the idea of being asked to play the wing. Maybe it's just me but that's the sort of thing I'd want the Team's Captain to say "Yup, no problem coach" to.  Regardless, I think the Captaincy should always be earned by what is done by a player on his current team.

3. I'm confident in Babcock's ability to find the right spot for Matthews. The presence of Nylander and Kadri means Babcock can start Matthews in the #1, #2 or #3 spot depending on how he thinks the kid looks.

4. I think that may be optimistic. There'll be a ton of pressure on Matthews regardless. Also, it seems like you'd be adding the pressure of a fanbase that may expect the team to go from worst in the league to a playoff contender immediately.

5. The team gets better but the defense is still young and, frankly, not very good. The goaltending is a mess. Stamkos doesn't really help the team in either area and, in fact, his cap hit would prevent them from addressing those areas to a degree.

6. That could be true anyway. Again, Kadri/Nylander/Matthews is already pretty good.   

I think everyone would welcome Stamkos for the right price. The issue is that I think we're getting to a point where for a lot of people "the right price" is kind of unrealistic given what other teams will be willing/capable of offering.   

 

[Redleaf]

While getting Matthews is going to be huge for the franchise, I don't buy that we don't need him now that we have Matthews.  The cap hit is gonna suck, but when can you get a guy like Stamkos at 26yrs of age at his prime?  Not often at all nowadays.  There are a few positives in adding him to the teams that I can't overlook:

1.  A superstar Canadian-boy who loves the Leafs and wants to play for the Leafs.
2.  A player who steps in as the leader (and/or Captain) of the biggest hockey franchise in the world.  A guy the whole Leafs nation can get behind (i.e. Gilmour)
3.  Matthews is not going to be a #1 center his rookie season.  If he is thrust into that role, it may do more harm than good.  Having him start on the 3rd line is probably best where he'll be shielded from other #1 centers.  So having Stamkos then Kadri /Nylander above him in the depth chart for next season is probably the best way to go. 
4.  Again, Matthews will be shield from the constant scrutiny of this city and the media.  Stamkos is older and can handle most of the focus of the media on him. 
5.  We immediately become closer to becoming a playoff team and contender.  We could be knocking on the playoff door if we have him on the team next season not that we are expecting it of course.  They could surprise us next season.  Nylander was on a tear for a while there along with Soshnikov. 
6.  We would have some serious offensive threats on 3 lines versus 2.

The only thing will be salary that is a negative that I can see signing Stamkos, which everyone's already delved into.  If we can figure that out with him, then I don't see why we don't sign Stamkos.

Let me add another, and perhaps biggest potential positive.

* it allows the Leafs to trade one of their other talented forwards for a much needed #1 or #2 defenseman

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I can't think of anything less relevant to whether Stamkos would love to play for the Leafs than the personal feelings of a TMLFans.ca poster to the same question.

 

[Kin]

I can't think of anything less relevant to whether Stamkos would love to play for the Leafs than the personal feelings of a TMLFans.ca poster to the same question.

I think most of us would like to play for the Leafs.

 

[mr grieves]

I'm curious how many teams could actually afford to pay him $10+/year, and how many of those teams wouldn't be scared off by his injury history. I would think the list is fairly short.

Well, I've heard that one reason he wouldn't come to Toronto would be that he wants to win now. So, which teams that are contenders could actually afford to pay him $10m+/year? Quick skim of team's cap space: the Predators, the Stars, the Sharks? Maybe the Panthers...?

If he's not that concerned about having a chance at the Cup immediately, there are plenty of rebuilding teams with enough space. Then we're imagining getting into a bidding war with Buffalo and Stamkos choosing the Sabres for a few million extra dollars.

 

[Kin]

I'm curious how many teams could actually afford to pay him $10+/year, and how many of those teams wouldn't be scared off by his injury history. I would think the list is fairly short.

I'd guess the list is pretty long if you include any team that could reasonably make that sort of space by trading players.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

I'm curious how many teams could actually afford to pay him $10+/year, and how many of those teams wouldn't be scared off by his injury history. I would think the list is fairly short.

I'd guess the list is pretty long if you include any team that could reasonably make that sort of space by trading players.

I suppose I was thinking more of who could do it with available cap space, rather than having to make moves to create that space. To clear up $10M a team  would likely have to trade a useful piece or two, and maybe that's not worth it. And that still doesn't address his injury history, assuming it's an issue.

 

[Kin]

I suppose I was thinking more of who could do it with available cap space, rather than having to make moves to create that space. To clear up $10M a team  would likely have to trade a useful piece or two, and maybe that's not worth it. And that still doesn't address his injury history, assuming it's an issue.

Sure, but what I was saying was that teams don't really have to have 10 million in cap space. They just need to get there. And that doesn't necessarily involve clearing the whole 10 million either. A team out there right now might figure on having 6 million to spend on free agency but, if Stamkos is available, might figure out a way to make that extra 4 million happen and that's a figure you can get to by trading a relatively minor piece or even through an incentivized salary dump like how we took on Brooks Laich.

But I guess the real question is what we mean by a long or short list of teams. Obviously there are some teams like Chicago or LA or Pittsburgh that couldn't swing it and there are probably some teams like Arizona or Carolina where an internal budget probably rules it out but there's probably a good 8-10 teams that are real possibilities provided, like you said, they aren't too bothered by the injuries.

 

[McGarnagle]

dump like how we took on Brooks Laich.

Hahahaha. Oh, grow up mcgarnagle.

 

[herman]

dump like how we took on Brooks Laich.

Hahahaha. Oh, grow up mcgarnagle.

 

[mr grieves]

Is this solely based on not needing a centre anymore?

Not solely, no. The future cap math comes into play, as well, and, more importantly, I feel like it will still be a few seasons until the team will be a position where the type of contract it'll take to sign Stamos will be worthwhile.

But won't the type of contract it'll take to sign Stamkos only get trickier from here on out?

Using the cap space to sign a top UFA (which means max term) this summer means the contract comes off the books as Marner and Matthews hit unrestricted free agency. 

For the three drafted stars to cause real cap trouble before that, each would have to pan out, by end of their ELCs, more or less as projected under the most wildly optimistic projections -- we'd have the 2020 versions of Kopitar (RFA 12% of cap), Kane (RFA 10.5%), and Backstrom (RFA 11%). That seems unlikely to happen, though I'm confident they'll all be really good players in playoff team's top six.

If the goal of the capped system is to extract as much value as possible from the ELC years of your talent, then having a Stamkos-level UFA ready for a run in 2018-19 seems like a smart move. If they can get him at a reasonable price, of course.

 

[herman]

[tweet]729127545438789632[/tweet]

 

[McGarnagle]

[tweet]729127545438789632[/tweet]

Hooboy. Here we go. No doubt another "accidental" like.