Steve Stamkos?

[Tigger]

You can't assume all the prospects on the Marlies will turn into elite talent.  Who knows how many, or IF any turn into those types of players.

That's very true but that's a point the anti-Stamkos crowd has made more consistently than the pro-Stamkos crowd. The people who are loudly advocating for Stamkos to be signed in this thread are doing so on the basis of assuming that all of the Leafs' top prospects work out spectacularly and the team doesn't need any more high first round picks.

Show me a team who's core is built exclusively of all high, first round picks.

Oh right.  Edmonton.

What do you mean by exclusively? Does it have to be so blank and white? Can't I want them to sign FAs and trade for stars in a few years? Or if I am willing to say they should sign a big name FA in 2019 do I have to also think they should sign Stamkos this year?

I think you work with what is tangible when it becomes so.  Not what may or may not be tangible a couple years down the road. Most teams generally have to trade good present and/or future assets for those pieces when the time comes that they determine that they "need" to.

Uh huh, so maybe Matthews and Marner aren't Toews and Kane just yet?

 

[TBLeafer]

You can't assume all the prospects on the Marlies will turn into elite talent.  Who knows how many, or IF any turn into those types of players.

That's very true but that's a point the anti-Stamkos crowd has made more consistently than the pro-Stamkos crowd. The people who are loudly advocating for Stamkos to be signed in this thread are doing so on the basis of assuming that all of the Leafs' top prospects work out spectacularly and the team doesn't need any more high first round picks.

Show me a team who's core is built exclusively of all high, first round picks.

Oh right.  Edmonton.

What do you mean by exclusively? Does it have to be so blank and white? Can't I want them to sign FAs and trade for stars in a few years? Or if I am willing to say they should sign a big name FA in 2019 do I have to also think they should sign Stamkos this year?

I think you work with what is tangible when it becomes so.  Not what may or may not be tangible a couple years down the road. Most teams generally have to trade good present and/or future assets for those pieces when the time comes that they determine that they "need" to.

Uh huh, so maybe Matthews and Marner aren't Toews and Kane just yet?

Took them a couple seasons of development before they reached contention too, if I recall.

From going to no 1C, to a proven 1C and a future 1C is a pretty decent start to a rebuilding the next Leafs core I'd say.

Then add Nylander, Marner, Brown, Carrick and Zaitsev to what already exists in the players that did stick around.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I love the debate back and forth on this.  I think they can make it work either way so I'm not too worried about this.  We'll know soon enough what happens -- 17 days!

I don't doubt that they could also make it work without Stamkos.  It will just take a couple seasons longer.  I'd prefer to see them contend a little sooner than the 2019-20 season given that they don't have to give up any assets to be a contender sooner.

This is exactly the pit that every other recent management team has fallen into, and specifically the one Babcock and Shanahan have said will be toughest to avoid, but that they intend to avoid. That's less a point towards why signing Stamkos is a bad idea and more a point towards why the Leafs won't sign him.

 

[TBLeafer]

I love the debate back and forth on this.  I think they can make it work either way so I'm not too worried about this.  We'll know soon enough what happens -- 17 days!

I don't doubt that they could also make it work without Stamkos.  It will just take a couple seasons longer.  I'd prefer to see them contend a little sooner than the 2019-20 season given that they don't have to give up any assets to be a contender sooner.

This is exactly the pit that every other recent management team has fallen into, and specifically the one Babcock and Shanahan have said will be toughest to avoid, but that they intend to avoid. That's less a point towards why signing Stamkos is a bad idea and more a point towards why the Leafs won't sign him.

No it isn't a pit.  Trading away your future players for a now player is a pit.  There's a BIG difference.

 

[bustaheims]

That said, the rebuild for me started the moment they fired Randy Carlyle.  That's when they started actively tanking.  But even if you consider that, that was 1.5 years ago.  3 seasons ago, they were in the playoff race until the whole "18-wheeler off the cliff" thing happened.

Exactly. It wasn't until Carlyle was fired that they started focusing on making moves that were geared towards a long-term rebuilding plan, rather than simply giving up on the season and making the best of it at the deadline. I mean, two summers ago, they signed Robidas and Komarov to multi-year deals, with the hope of turning the team into a competitive one. They trade for Polak. They made a long-term, significant dollar offer to Bolland to retain him. These are not the moves a rebuilding team makes. Last summer was when they made the first big move of the rebuild - trading Kessel. That's when they really started actively rebuilding. Everything before that was about failed attempts to compete, and reacting to those failures.

The Leafs were a bad team for years before they started the rebuild, but, they were still trying to build around what they already had - they were working to turn the core of Kessel, Phaneuf, etc., in to a winner. That's not rebuilding. That's just failing.

 

[bustaheims]

Year 3.  Shanny will be starting year 3 in the fall.  His rebuild started the season his team plummeted to obtain 4th OA.

At most, the team is entering Year 2. Failing in your attempts to build a competitive team and being bad is not rebuilding. Breaking up your existing core and starting over is. That only started last summer.

 

[Tigger]

Took them a couple seasons of development before they reached contention too, if I recall.

From going to no 1C, to a proven 1C and a future 1C is a pretty decent start to a rebuilding the next Leafs core I'd say.

Then add Nylander, Marner, Brown, Carrick and Zaitsev to what already exists in the players that did stick around.

Sure, but you've been saying 'we have our Toews and Kane', like it's a foregone conclusion and that the Leafs have the talent in the pipeline to support them ( like Chicago did ). I want them to be that, I don't know they're that and it tempers my enthusiasm when it comes to Leafs success sooner rather than later. Believe me, I understand the pull of wanting a player of Stamkos calibre, but to paraphrase you, don't count your chickens before they're chickens.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I love the debate back and forth on this.  I think they can make it work either way so I'm not too worried about this.  We'll know soon enough what happens -- 17 days!

I don't doubt that they could also make it work without Stamkos.  It will just take a couple seasons longer.  I'd prefer to see them contend a little sooner than the 2019-20 season given that they don't have to give up any assets to be a contender sooner.

This is exactly the pit that every other recent management team has fallen into, and specifically the one Babcock and Shanahan have said will be toughest to avoid, but that they intend to avoid. That's less a point towards why signing Stamkos is a bad idea and more a point towards why the Leafs won't sign him.

No it isn't a pit.  Trading away your future players for a now player is a pit.  There's a BIG difference.

Not being patient is the pit. You said "I'd prefer to see them contend a little sooner than the 2019-20 season", if that's not in the original plan, then changing your mind to speed things up is the pit. However that manifests itself, FAs signing, trades, etc...

 

[bustaheims]

Not being patient is the pit. You said "I'd prefer to see them contend a little sooner than the 2019-20 season", if that's not in the original plan, then changing your mind to speed things up is the pit. However that manifests itself, FAs signing, trades, etc...

At the very least, it's a slippery slope - which is still bad.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Not being patient is the pit. You said "I'd prefer to see them contend a little sooner than the 2019-20 season", if that's not in the original plan, then changing your mind to speed things up is the pit. However that manifests itself, FAs signing, trades, etc...

At the very least, it's a slippery slope - which is still bad.

Sure, a slippery slope that many a Leaf GM has slipped upon though. And why walk across the slope when there's a perfectly good walking path just a few meters out of the way.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Took them a couple seasons of development before they reached contention too, if I recall.

From going to no 1C, to a proven 1C and a future 1C is a pretty decent start to a rebuilding the next Leafs core I'd say.

Then add Nylander, Marner, Brown, Carrick and Zaitsev to what already exists in the players that did stick around.

Sure, but you've been saying 'we have our Toews and Kane', like it's a foregone conclusion and that the Leafs have the talent in the pipeline to support them ( like Chicago did ). I want them to be that, I don't know they're that and it tempers my enthusiasm when it comes to Leafs success sooner rather than later. Believe me, I understand the pull of wanting a player of Stamkos calibre, but to paraphrase you, don't count your chickens before they're chickens.

And, although I'm willing to be optimistic about Nylander and Marner, who's to say for sure that Brown, Carrick and Zaitsev are even an upgrade over Boyes, Marincin and Harrington?

 

[TBLeafer]

Year 3.  Shanny will be starting year 3 in the fall.  His rebuild started the season his team plummeted to obtain 4th OA.

At most, the team is entering Year 2. Failing in your attempts to build a competitive team and being bad is not rebuilding. Breaking up your existing core and starting over is. That only started last summer.

Shanahan knowing Carlyle's Leafs would implode, he let's Carlyle's Leafs implode.  I said when the season started that Carlyle would be fired at year's end.  I was off by days and the full on tank effort under Horachek began. A tank effort is a rebuilding effort and it resulted in Marner, who will be a key piece going forward.

Year 3.

In year 3 we challenge for a playoff spot.  In year 4 we are a playoff team.  In year five we should be ready to compete for the cup in the third year of Matthews and Marner's ELC's.  Stanley Cup contenders in the 2018/19 season with Stamkos.

That is not an accelerated rebuild.  That's a 5 year plan as set in motion by Shanny (aka the Shanaplan) in the 2014/15 season.

There is no need whatsoever to wash, rinse and repeat last season. There is a need to start getting much better for anyone who plays to win.

That is precisely what Shanahan is about to start doing so you can either be surprised by it, or prepared for it.

Tank Nation is over.

And yes that's just IMO.

 

[TBLeafer]

Took them a couple seasons of development before they reached contention too, if I recall.

From going to no 1C, to a proven 1C and a future 1C is a pretty decent start to a rebuilding the next Leafs core I'd say.

Then add Nylander, Marner, Brown, Carrick and Zaitsev to what already exists in the players that did stick around.

Sure, but you've been saying 'we have our Toews and Kane', like it's a foregone conclusion and that the Leafs have the talent in the pipeline to support them ( like Chicago did ). I want them to be that, I don't know they're that and it tempers my enthusiasm when it comes to Leafs success sooner rather than later. Believe me, I understand the pull of wanting a player of Stamkos calibre, but to paraphrase you, don't count your chickens before they're chickens.

Based on where they went in their respective draft classes, we have our version of them.  That they develop into something as good or near as good as them is still admittedly a hope, yes.  But its not an irrational one.

 

[TBLeafer]

Not being patient is the pit. You said "I'd prefer to see them contend a little sooner than the 2019-20 season", if that's not in the original plan, then changing your mind to speed things up is the pit. However that manifests itself, FAs signing, trades, etc...

At the very least, it's a slippery slope - which is still bad.

Sure, a slippery slope that many a Leaf GM has slipped upon though. And why walk across the slope when there's a perfectly good walking path just a few meters out of the way.

How many draft picks has Shanahan traded away on players to make his team better thus far?

How full are our prospect cupboards?

He's already managed this organization in his first two seasons like no management has ever done before him in my lifetime.  Its time to reap a big reward for successfully clearing all that cap.

 

[Tigger]

Year 3.  Shanny will be starting year 3 in the fall.  His rebuild started the season his team plummeted to obtain 4th OA.

At most, the team is entering Year 2. Failing in your attempts to build a competitive team and being bad is not rebuilding. Breaking up your existing core and starting over is. That only started last summer.

Shanahan knowing Carlyle's Leafs would implode, he let's Carlyle's Leafs implode.  I said when the season started that Carlyle would be fired at year's end.  I was off by days and the full on tank effort under Horachek began. A tank effort is a rebuilding effort and it resulted in Marner, who will be a key piece going forward.

Year 3.

In year 3 we challenge for a playoff spot.  In year 4 we are a playoff team.  In year five we should be ready to compete for the cup in the third year of Matthews and Marner's ELC's.  Stanley Cup contenders in the 2018/19 season with Stamkos.

That is not an accelerated rebuild.  That's a 5 year plan as set in motion by Shanny (aka the Shanaplan) in the 2014/15 season.

There is no need whatsoever to wash, rinse and repeat last season. There is a need to start getting much better for anyone who plays to win.

That is precisely what Shanahan is about to start doing so you can either be surprised by it, or prepared for it.

Tank Nation is over.

And yes that's just IMO.

You think the Leafs are challenging for a playoff spot next season?

 

[TBLeafer]

Year 3.  Shanny will be starting year 3 in the fall.  His rebuild started the season his team plummeted to obtain 4th OA.

At most, the team is entering Year 2. Failing in your attempts to build a competitive team and being bad is not rebuilding. Breaking up your existing core and starting over is. That only started last summer.

Shanahan knowing Carlyle's Leafs would implode, he let's Carlyle's Leafs implode.  I said when the season started that Carlyle would be fired at year's end.  I was off by days and the full on tank effort under Horachek began. A tank effort is a rebuilding effort and it resulted in Marner, who will be a key piece going forward.

Year 3.

In year 3 we challenge for a playoff spot.  In year 4 we are a playoff team.  In year five we should be ready to compete for the cup in the third year of Matthews and Marner's ELC's.  Stanley Cup contenders in the 2018/19 season with Stamkos.

That is not an accelerated rebuild.  That's a 5 year plan as set in motion by Shanny (aka the Shanaplan) in the 2014/15 season.

There is no need whatsoever to wash, rinse and repeat last season. There is a need to start getting much better for anyone who plays to win.

That is precisely what Shanahan is about to start doing so you can either be surprised by it, or prepared for it.

Tank Nation is over.

And yes that's just IMO.

You think the Leafs are challenging for a playoff spot next season?

I can see them getting +/- 85 points.  Without Stamkos.

 

[Tigger]

Took them a couple seasons of development before they reached contention too, if I recall.

From going to no 1C, to a proven 1C and a future 1C is a pretty decent start to a rebuilding the next Leafs core I'd say.

Then add Nylander, Marner, Brown, Carrick and Zaitsev to what already exists in the players that did stick around.

Sure, but you've been saying 'we have our Toews and Kane', like it's a foregone conclusion and that the Leafs have the talent in the pipeline to support them ( like Chicago did ). I want them to be that, I don't know they're that and it tempers my enthusiasm when it comes to Leafs success sooner rather than later. Believe me, I understand the pull of wanting a player of Stamkos calibre, but to paraphrase you, don't count your chickens before they're chickens.

Based on where they went in their respective draft classes, we have our version of them.  That they develop into something as good or near as good as them is still admittedly a hope, yes.  But its not an irrational one.

Kinda is.

 

[Tigger]

Year 3.  Shanny will be starting year 3 in the fall.  His rebuild started the season his team plummeted to obtain 4th OA.

At most, the team is entering Year 2. Failing in your attempts to build a competitive team and being bad is not rebuilding. Breaking up your existing core and starting over is. That only started last summer.

Shanahan knowing Carlyle's Leafs would implode, he let's Carlyle's Leafs implode.  I said when the season started that Carlyle would be fired at year's end.  I was off by days and the full on tank effort under Horachek began. A tank effort is a rebuilding effort and it resulted in Marner, who will be a key piece going forward.

Year 3.

In year 3 we challenge for a playoff spot.  In year 4 we are a playoff team.  In year five we should be ready to compete for the cup in the third year of Matthews and Marner's ELC's.  Stanley Cup contenders in the 2018/19 season with Stamkos.

That is not an accelerated rebuild.  That's a 5 year plan as set in motion by Shanny (aka the Shanaplan) in the 2014/15 season.

There is no need whatsoever to wash, rinse and repeat last season. There is a need to start getting much better for anyone who plays to win.

That is precisely what Shanahan is about to start doing so you can either be surprised by it, or prepared for it.

Tank Nation is over.

And yes that's just IMO.

You think the Leafs are challenging for a playoff spot next season?

I can see them getting +/- 85 points.  Without Stamkos.

Alrighty then, that's pretty optimistic.

 

[bustaheims]

Shanahan knowing Carlyle's Leafs would implode, he let's Carlyle's Leafs implode.  I said when the season started that Carlyle would be fired at year's end.  I was off by days and the full on tank effort under Horachek began. A tank effort is a rebuilding effort and it resulted in Marner, who will be a key piece going forward.

That's all well and good, but it doesn't change the fact that the moves made going into that season were made by a GM who thought the team only needed a few tweaks to make the playoffs, and was trying to build a competitive team. That wasn't a team built with the purpose of being bad. It was a team that was badly built. There were no moves made to strip the team down or break up the core until the season was lost. As I said before, being bad isn't rebuilding. Being bad is being bad. That team wasn't bad on purpose or by design. That team didn't tank. That team just sucked.

The rebuild officially kicked off when Kessel was dealt. He was the first core piece out the door. The first clear signal that the core of the team was going to be rebuilt.

 

[louisstamos]

Based on where they went in their respective draft classes, we have our version of them.  That they develop into something as good or near as good as them is still admittedly a hope, yes.  But its not an irrational one.

While I do get where you're going at with that - Matthews and Marner playing similar "type" of games to Toews and Kane, you can't really let draft position dictate the quality of the player.  The quality of the draft pool varies incredibly from year to year.  Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is nowhere near the same level of Sidney Crosby, but they're both playmaking centres that went first overall.

We had that discussion about Kadri a few weeks back - some people were disappointed because they thought a player taken that high (7th overall) should be a first line player.  But if you looked at the rest of the picks immediately after in the first round - Kadri was still arguably the best player taken at that #7 spot.  It just so happened that outside of the top 3 (Tavares, Hedman, Duchene) and OEL at #6 (the pick right before :S), that draft didn't really produce first unit players.