Tank Nation UNITE!!!

[Arn]

• McDavid is around 3.30 PPG when playing with Strome, he is 1.91 PPG without Strome.
• Strome is 2.65 PPG with McDavid, he is 1.61 PPG without McDavid.

Source: http://oilersnation.com/2015/2/8/how-good-is-dylan-strome

So can we win the lottery then trade Kessel for Buffalo's first and get them both?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So say we get one of Marner or Strome.  Would you play them one more year in junior or bring them up to the Leafs?  They can't play for the Marlies.  Are these two kids ready for prime time?

My natural instinct would be to say send them back. The teams been preaching patience with all their other prospects the last little bit so it would be in line with that philosophy. The problem of course is that they're both dominating the OHL right now. But Strome could probably use a full year in the OHL where he's the top dog on his team. And Marner would probably be sent back for the same reason Jonathan Drouin was.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

So say we get one of Marner or Strome.  Would you play them one more year in junior or bring them up to the Leafs?  They can't play for the Marlies.  Are these two kids ready for prime time?

My natural instinct would be to say send them back. The teams been preaching patience with all their other prospects the last little bit so it would be in line with that philosophy. The problem of course is that they're both dominating the OHL right now. But Strome could probably use a full year in the OHL where he's the top dog on his team. And Marner would probably be sent back for the same reason Jonathan Drouin was.

And bringing up good young players might ruin next year's tank effort, which will likely be a better one than this year.

At this point, seven points separate Toronto and NJ, so even if they go on a run I can't imagine the Leafs finish out of the bottom 6.  In the unlikely event that someone above them in the standings wins the lottery, the Leafs' worst case scenario/position in this draft will very likely be 7th.

The top 4 are pretty much indisputable.  Assuming Marner goes in the 5-spot, what two players round out the top 7?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The top 4 are pretty much indisputable.  Assuming Marner goes in the 5-spot, what two players round out the top 7?

It'll likely go McDavid-Eichel-Hanifin. Then Strome, Marner, and Crouse will be the next 3 picks in some order. After that it's a mess. A lot of good players but no real consensus on where they'll go.

 

[Boston Leaf]

What is so wrong with Crouse? I have never seen him play and living in states I don't have too much exposure to the juniors. But I heara  lot of people rip him??

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Someone combined the top-30 rankings of 6 major sources so you can view them all at a glance and see how things average out:

http://jetsnation.ca/2015/3/5/aggregating-draft-rankings

 

[CarltonTheBear]

What is so wrong with Crouse? I have never seen him play and living in states I don't have too much exposure to the juniors. But I heara  lot of people rip him??

His offensive numbers are pretty underwhelming. Everything else about his game is pretty good though. This is a previous post I made about him:

Corey Pronman actually wrote an article about Crouse today explaining his stance on him:

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/nhl-draft/post/_/id/709/why-lawson-crouse-is-a-top-10-prospect

It's insider-only, but I'll post a couple of paragraphs:

Crouse has many positives to his game other than ?size.? He skates well in general, and very well for a big man. The same can be said for his puck skills, even if he?s not a dynamic offensive player. He?s a very advanced two-way thinker, who is one of the best defensive forwards available in this year?s draft class. And yes, he has an elite physical game as well due to his size, strength, work ethic and physicality that allows him to win a lot of battles.

...

In the case of Crouse, the scouting analysis shows us that we have a winger whose skating and puck skills are good (but not great), is great defensively, has high-end hockey sense and has an elite physical game. That combination of skills projects a reasonable ceiling of that player being an above-average scoring NHLer, who clearly isn?t top-line caliber in scoring, but plays very well versus the opponent?s best forwards, and can be one of a team?s top penalty killers. If that outcome is realized, this is a very valuable asset for any NHL team, and certainly any of the teams looking to be picking in the top 10 of this year's draft.

 

[Boston Leaf]

thanks Carlton

 

[L K]

What is so wrong with Crouse? I have never seen him play and living in states I don't have too much exposure to the juniors. But I heara  lot of people rip him??

His offensive numbers are pretty underwhelming. Everything else about his game is pretty good though.

Underwhelming is an understatement.  He has 39 points in 48 games.  He has 66 points in 111 games over two seasons in the OHL.  I only went as far back as the 2000 NHL entry draft but I don't think there has ever been a forward who has scored below PPG in his draft year taken in the top 10 from any of the three Canadian Junior leagues.

If a guy can't score in Junior hockey, he's not going to score at the professional level.  Whoever gets Crouse is going to get an NHL player but he's not going to be anything special.  In a draft that has an exceptional player (and maybe 2 of them) as well as having some fantastic depth, I find it disappointing that Crouse gets remotely mentioned above guys like Strome/Marner at any time.

 

[Boston Leaf]

What is so wrong with Crouse? I have never seen him play and living in states I don't have too much exposure to the juniors. But I heara  lot of people rip him??

His offensive numbers are pretty underwhelming. Everything else about his game is pretty good though.

Underwhelming is an understatement.  He has 39 points in 48 games.  He has 66 points in 111 games over two seasons in the OHL.  I only went as far back as the 2000 NHL entry draft but I don't think there has ever been a forward who has scored below PPG in his draft year taken in the top 10 from any of the three Canadian Junior leagues.

If a guy can't score in Junior hockey, he's not going to score at the professional level.  Whoever gets Crouse is going to get an NHL player but he's not going to be anything special.  In a draft that has an exceptional player (and maybe 2 of them) as well as having some fantastic depth, I find it disappointing that Crouse gets remotely mentioned above guys like Strome/Marner at any time.

which is what is puzzling. In a draft that is raved about for being so deep how is a guy like that ranked in top 10? He has to be excpetional at something??

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

What is so wrong with Crouse? I have never seen him play and living in states I don't have too much exposure to the juniors. But I heara  lot of people rip him??

His offensive numbers are pretty underwhelming. Everything else about his game is pretty good though.

Underwhelming is an understatement.  He has 39 points in 48 games.  He has 66 points in 111 games over two seasons in the OHL.  I only went as far back as the 2000 NHL entry draft but I don't think there has ever been a forward who has scored below PPG in his draft year taken in the top 10 from any of the three Canadian Junior leagues.

If a guy can't score in Junior hockey, he's not going to score at the professional level.  Whoever gets Crouse is going to get an NHL player but he's not going to be anything special.  In a draft that has an exceptional player (and maybe 2 of them) as well as having some fantastic depth, I find it disappointing that Crouse gets remotely mentioned above guys like Strome/Marner at any time.

I went back further and found Boyd Devereaux, 6th overall in 1996 (58 in 66 GP OHL); Mike Rupp, 9th overall in 1998 (27 in 64 GP - why the heck was he 9th overall? Terrible draft I suppose), Manny Malhotra, 7th overall in 1998 (51 in 57 GP), Kris Beech, 7th overall in 1999 (67 in 68 GP).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If a guy can't score in Junior hockey, he's not going to score at the professional level.  Whoever gets Crouse is going to get an NHL player but he's not going to be anything special.  In a draft that has an exceptional player (and maybe 2 of them) as well as having some fantastic depth, I find it disappointing that Crouse gets remotely mentioned above guys like Strome/Marner at any time.

ISS has him 3rd over Hanifin too. Crazy.

 

[cw]

So say we get one of Marner or Strome.  Would you play them one more year in junior or bring them up to the Leafs?  They can't play for the Marlies.  Are these two kids ready for prime time?

My natural instinct would be to say send them back. The teams been preaching patience with all their other prospects the last little bit so it would be in line with that philosophy. The problem of course is that they're both dominating the OHL right now. But Strome could probably use a full year in the OHL where he's the top dog on his team. And Marner would probably be sent back for the same reason Jonathan Drouin was.

And bringing up good young players might ruin next year's tank effort, which will likely be a better one than this year.

At this point, seven points separate Toronto and NJ, so even if they go on a run I can't imagine the Leafs finish out of the bottom 6.  In the unlikely event that someone above them in the standings wins the lottery, the Leafs' worst case scenario/position in this draft will very likely be 7th.

The top 4 are pretty much indisputable.  Assuming Marner goes in the 5-spot, what two players round out the top 7?

A fair amount of consensus these are commonly the top 5:
1. Connor McDavid
2. Jack Eichel
3. Noah Hanifin
4. Dylan Strome
5. Mitch Marner

After that, these three pop up a lot in the top 7:
6. Zach Werenski
7. Lawson Crouse
8. Mathew Barzal

Darn good chance one of those top 8 guys gets picked by the Leafs

Beyond that, I've seen these guys crack the top 7 more than once:
Ivan Provorov
Pavel Zacha
Oliver Kylington
Jeremy Roy
Mikko Rantanen

 

[ZBBM]

It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for a team like the Leafs to add a forward who sounds like he could be a perennial Selke candidate.  It would certainly send a message that the club is interested in playing team defense.  And -- dare I say it -- it might actually allow you to keep a guy like Kessel on the roster. nevermindthat

 

[CarltonTheBear]

It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for a team like the Leafs to add a forward who sounds like he could be a perennial Selke candidate.  It would certainly send a message that the club is interested in playing team defense.  And -- dare I say it -- it might actually allow you to keep a guy like Kessel on the roster. nevermindthat

Perennial Selke candidates still score 60-70 points a season. Very, very unlikely Crouse can produce those types of numbers in the NHL.

 

[ZBBM]

It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for a team like the Leafs to add a forward who sounds like he could be a perennial Selke candidate.  It would certainly send a message that the club is interested in playing team defense.  And -- dare I say it -- it might actually allow you to keep a guy like Kessel on the roster. nevermindthat

Perennial Selke candidates still score 60-70 points a season. Very, very unlikely Crouse can produce those types of numbers in the NHL.

I knew that would be brought up, but that just tells you about how the Selke is misvoted.  Trophies aside, let's say Crouse has an upside that puts him among the best defensive forwards in the league -- great on FOs, on PK.  If we pick, say, 6/7/8 ... he could be the best choice.

 

[Kin]

It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for a team like the Leafs to add a forward who sounds like he could be a perennial Selke candidate.  It would certainly send a message that the club is interested in playing team defense.  And -- dare I say it -- it might actually allow you to keep a guy like Kessel on the roster. nevermindthat

Or regardless, just if he becomes a good pro and is the best available choice I think that's the way to go. I get the sense that a lot of the push to get into the top five here is from people who want to "jump start" the rebuild or whatever which is really just a coded way of saying that they don't really have the patience for the team to do it right.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I get the sense that a lot of the push to get into the top five here is from people who want to "jump start" the rebuild or whatever which is really just a coded way of saying that they don't really have the patience for the team to do it right.

The push to get into the top five is so the team has a chance at drafting a better player than they would at 6-7-8. Looking at it in any other way is pretty odd in my opinion.

 

[cw]

It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for a team like the Leafs to add a forward who sounds like he could be a perennial Selke candidate.  It would certainly send a message that the club is interested in playing team defense.  And -- dare I say it -- it might actually allow you to keep a guy like Kessel on the roster. nevermindthat

They may need a couple of franchise players if Kessel & Rielly are not or don't pan out.

At this juncture, I'd be inclined to swing a little for the fences - until they secure those franchise players to build around.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I knew that would be brought up, but that just tells you about how the Selke is misvoted.  Trophies aside, let's say Crouse has an upside that puts him among the best defensive forwards in the league -- great on FOs, on PK.  If we pick, say, 6/7/8 ... he could be the best choice.

If we're at 6/7/8 (particularly say 8 ) then I could stomach a Crouse selection. He might not be my personal pick there, but if Hunter & co. say so then I won't judge. It's only if we pick him over a Strome or Marner that I'd be livid. And while the Selke voting may be a bit off, almost all of the very best defensive forwards in the NHL still have very high offensive skills. Things like high hockey sense, elite skating, and puck moving abilities are transferable to both ends of the ice. Can you name the best defensive forwards who score under say 40 points? I'd still probably take Hossa/Toews/Kopitar/Bergeron over them even strictly in a defensive-manner.

At the very, very best, Crouse likely projects to a David Backes type player. 50-60 points, big, mean, and very good defensively. Backes has the advantage of being a centre though, which Crouse is not. I wonder if maybe that's something a NHL team tries to change, as centres obviously carry much more defensive responsibilities. And while that projection definitely sounds awesome, I'd say it's more likely he turns into a Daniel Winnik-type player than Backes. And that's obviously the rub.