The Leo Komarov Question

[Frank E]

Interestingly enough, they'll turn Komarov into a 2016 1st round pick.  That guy will be developed over the next few years and turn into a top liner for the Marlies with some second line NHL potential.  In 2019, the Leafs will trade him for a gritty 40 point player like Komarov for a playoff run.   

 

[Tigger]

Looking at the top 10 Leafs PP toi, Komarov is seventh, just ahead of Holland, while Parenteau is fourth ahead by almost 20 mins and Boyes is ninth behind by about 8 mins. If he keeps producing, and keeping in mind the likelihood of Brad and PA being gone at least by next year, I can't see why Leo wouldn't remain a presence on the PP.

Having said that, he also has 17 ES points, so it wouldn't be the end of the world if his PP time dropped a bit.

If the argument is that Leo might be dropped from the PP and to third line ES minutes, speaking to his trade value at least, I'd have to ask why a coach would do that if he's still effective.

 

[Kin]

Looking at the top 10 Leafs PP toi, Komarov is seventh, just ahead of Holland, while Parenteau is fourth ahead by almost 20 mins and Boyes is ninth behind by about 8 mins. If he keeps producing, and keeping in mind the likelihood of Brad and PA being gone at least by next year, I can't see why Leo wouldn't remain a presence on the PP.

Well:

A) Boyes and Parenteau will be gone but (hopefully), Nylander, Marner and another high value prospect will be here.

B) At some point it stands to reason that Babcock will shift away from the 4 forwards/1 defenseman PP model. Right now the Leafs have 8 forwards averaging 1:49 or more PP time per night. That's not typical.

Having said that, he also has 17 ES points, so it wouldn't be the end of the world if his PP time dropped a bit.

He's also not likely to keep shooting 22% so he's almost certain to drop down to a 25-35 point range just based on those numbers.

If the argument is that Leo might be dropped from the PP and to third line ES minutes, speaking to his trade value at least, I'd have to ask why a coach would do that if he's still effective.

Well, like I said above it would be to incorporate better players and because he's not likely to remain this "effective" regardless of ice time/linemates.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Maybe but with the exception of last year Babcock never gave Abdelkader anything much in the way of PP time and, probably not coincidentally, last year is the only year he produced anything offensively in all of that time.

Sure but that just shows how much Babcock values a grit guy on the top line: he'll keep one there even in lieu of points. Anyway, I've never said that we should expect Komarov to be a perennial-30 goal scorer or that we should sign him to a Clarkson-like contract when his is up. All I'm saying is that Babcock loves players like Komarov. Babcock loves Komarov. Babcock will likely fight to keep Komarov.

If anything what happens with Leo will likely be a good sign of how the power structure within our management group is defined. I could very well see Dubas drooling at the thought of what Komarov could bring back in a trade this deadline. Can/will Babcock put his foot down on this?

 

[bustaheims]

Well, like I said above it would be to incorporate better players and because he's not likely to remain this "effective" regardless of ice time/linemates.

I agree, though, I can see Babcock (or any other coach) seeing him as a useful 3rd piece on a line with 2 skilled offensive players and using him in a Holmstrom type role on the PP, so, even though he wouldn't have the same level of effectiveness in terms of shooting percentage and such, I can see him still being a good position to put up points.

I'd still trade high on him, though. I like him a lot, and if he was ~5 years younger, I'd be arguing in favour of hanging on to him, but, I don't think the long-term value in holding on to him is there. Guys with his style tend not to last well into their 30s. He might have a little more gas in the tank because he played mostly in the KHL, but it's not like he suddenly picked up the physical game when he came to the NHL.

 

[Tigger]

Looking at the top 10 Leafs PP toi, Komarov is seventh, just ahead of Holland, while Parenteau is fourth ahead by almost 20 mins and Boyes is ninth behind by about 8 mins. If he keeps producing, and keeping in mind the likelihood of Brad and PA being gone at least by next year, I can't see why Leo wouldn't remain a presence on the PP.

Well:

A) Boyes and Parenteau will be gone but (hopefully), Nylander, Marner and another high value prospect will be here.

B) At some point it stands to reason that Babcock will shift away from the 4 forwards/1 defenseman PP model. Right now the Leafs have 8 forwards averaging 1:49 or more PP time per night. That's not typical.

Having said that, he also has 17 ES points, so it wouldn't be the end of the world if his PP time dropped a bit.

He's also not likely to keep shooting 22% so he's almost certain to drop down to a 25-35 point range just based on those numbers.

If the argument is that Leo might be dropped from the PP and to third line ES minutes, speaking to his trade value at least, I'd have to ask why a coach would do that if he's still effective.

Well, like I said above it would be to incorporate better players and because he's not likely to remain this "effective" regardless of ice time/linemates.

Yup, Nylander and Marner, pretty much why I outlined Boyes and Parenteau. I can't speak to the likelihood of the Leafs continuing to deploy their PP the way they are.

His shooting percentage is going to drop, yes, perhaps his shot totals increase to offset that.

We'll have to see how he carries it, when I look back to last year before the Ovie hit he had 4g 12a in 23 games, I think all at ES, so that's a .7 ppg rate ( not a great sample size, still )

Like I said, it's not about not trading him but what is more useful to the Leafs for me, if he continues to be effective overall, he might be more useful in a deal down the line ( maybe as part of a package ). I guess the question is what you could likely get for him, and I really don't know the answer to that at this point given his situation ( playing well, 2 years left at a reasonable price point ).

 

[Kin]

Sure but that just shows how much Babcock values a grit guy on the top line: he'll keep one there even in lieu of points. Anyway, I've never said that we should expect Komarov to be a perennial-30 goal scorer or that we should sign him to a Clarkson-like contract when his is up. All I'm saying is that Babcock loves players like Komarov. Babcock loves Komarov. Babcock will likely fight to keep Komarov.

If anything what happens with Leo will likely be a good sign of how the power structure within our management group is defined. I could very well see Dubas drooling at the thought of what Komarov could bring back in a trade this deadline. Can/will Babcock put his foot down on this?

I just don't buy that Babcock is that shortsighted. He very well might prefer to have a grinder on a top line(although I'd point out that he actually won his cup using a top line of Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Franzen so that might just be borne out of necessity rather than preference) but that's an argument for having a grinder in that position when the team is ready to compete, it's not really an argument for holding onto a specific player years before that with a likely inflated value.

 

[Kin]

His shooting percentage is going to drop, yes, perhaps his shot totals increase to offset that.

A significant increase in his shot totals, which he'd need to offset his shooting percentage normalizing, would typically be seen as a significant improvement in his play overall. Given his age and style of play, that happening over the next few years strikes me roughly as likely as his shooting percentage staying where it is.

 

[Bullfrog]

If someone offered a 1st rounder, I wouldn't be able to hit the trade button fast enough.

 

[Tigger]

His shooting percentage is going to drop, yes, perhaps his shot totals increase to offset that.

A significant increase in his shot totals, which he'd need to offset his shooting percentage normalizing, would typically be seen as a significant improvement in his play overall. Given his age and style of play, that happening over the next few years strikes me roughly as likely as his shooting percentage staying where it is.

Well, his shot totals are increasing year by year in the NHL on a per game basis, and, he had 3 shots a game 2 years in the KHL, his two best years, roughly a third more than now. It's not the NHL I know, still, he's shown that when opportunity arises he makes the most of it and his game still seems to be improving.

I also don't think his shooting percentage is the make or break note of whether to trade him or not, there's a lot more on the table than that.

 

[Kin]

Well, his shot totals are increasing year by year in the NHL on a per game basis, and, he had 3 shots a game 2 years in the KHL, his two best years, roughly a third more than now. It's not the NHL I know, still, he's shown that when opportunity arises he makes the most of it and his game still seems to be improving.

Or rather he's shown that his stats are heavily influenced by outside factors. Last year his two most frequent linemates were Santo and Holland. Now it's Kadri and JVR. There isn't really anywhere to go from there. Once you're on the top line they can't bump you higher. Any further improvement would have to come from him or the Leafs having better first line players, which is unlikely for the duration of Komarov's deal.

 

[caver]

Well, like I said above it would be to incorporate better players and because he's not likely to remain this "effective" regardless of ice time/linemates.

I agree, though, I can see Babcock (or any other coach) seeing him as a useful 3rd piece on a line with 2 skilled offensive players and using him in a Holmstrom type role on the PP, so, even though he wouldn't have the same level of effectiveness in terms of shooting percentage and such, I can see him still being a good position to put up points.

I'd still trade high on him, though. I like him a lot, and if he was ~5 years younger, I'd be arguing in favour of hanging on to him, but, I don't think the long-term value in holding on to him is there. Guys with his style tend not to last well into their 30s. He might have a little more gas in the tank because he played mostly in the KHL, but it's not like he suddenly picked up the physical game when he came to the NHL.

I think these are the points to remember...as much as Komarov is liked..and another younger grinder may come along..maybe Brendan Leipsic.. ( he may be a bit small to do it in the NHL )

 

[Tigger]

Well, his shot totals are increasing year by year in the NHL on a per game basis, and, he had 3 shots a game 2 years in the KHL, his two best years, roughly a third more than now. It's not the NHL I know, still, he's shown that when opportunity arises he makes the most of it and his game still seems to be improving.

Or rather he's shown that his stats are heavily influenced by outside factors. Last year his two most frequent linemates were Santo and Holland. Now it's Kadri and JVR. There isn't really anywhere to go from there. Once you're on the top line they can't bump you higher. Any further improvement would have to come from him or the Leafs having better first line players, which is unlikely for the duration of Komarov's deal.

So you don't think it's possible for him to improve, ok.

 

[Kin]

So you don't think it's possible for him to improve, ok.

I'm pretty sure I said it wasn't likely, not impossible but you do you.

 

[Tigger]

So you don't think it's possible for him to improve, ok.

I'm pretty sure I said it wasn't likely, not impossible but you do you.

I think he's shown improvement every year, notably this one too. There's a ceiling to that, sure, but I don't think he's reached it.

Anywho, unless a team is going to seriously break the bank to try to get him, I think he stays a Leaf until his last contract year. One thing I've been mulling, if the Leafs were to offer say, JVR and Leo in a package, what could they get? It's not very likely to happen, still, if we're trying to see what Leo is worth it's interesting to cover other angles too.

 

[Joe S.]

He's having his Klein season.

He's having his Kulemin 2010-2011 season.

That's what I typed. It auto corrected a I didn't notice.

 

[freer]

If the Leafs keep at this pace, minus October, I don't see them trading players for picks at all.

 

[Kin]

Anywho, unless a team is going to seriously break the bank to try to get him, I think he stays a Leaf until his last contract year. One thing I've been mulling, if the Leafs were to offer say, JVR and Leo in a package, what could they get? It's not very likely to happen, still, if we're trying to see what Leo is worth it's interesting to cover other angles too.

Even if you do that in the off-season you're talking about a team taking on enough salary that I don't know if you'd do better than just offering them up individually.

 

[Rebel_1812]

This is his Jason Blake year.  Sell while high.

 

[Highlander]

Komarov was the best player on the Leaf side tonight