princedpw said:
I?ve seen these charts a ton of times.
On the one hand, I wonder if the circumstances in which Marner is without Tavares (eg, as a pk roles into 5-on-5? Just with crappy players?) are somehow skewing the results. (There?s also the Marner-vs-Brown withyou/withoutyou with Kadri that don?t shed Marner in a positive light.).
On the other hand, I can?t help wonder if, well, they are telling us something pretty important.
[this is an example of how to write a content-free post in case anyone wants to follow my lead.]
I will say this is just a hunch and I don't have data to back it up- so feel free to disagree or blast me.
These models are now using expected goals instead of Corsi to try and isolate impact- which I think is an improvement. Obviously a shot from the top of the slot is gonna be very good. I'd be willing to bet a guy like Kapanen could set up Tavares for those shots just as often as Marner. Despite xG saying it takes quality into account- my understanding is its using shot location and not a whole lot more (maybe time from entering the zone?). I don't believe it takes Royal Road passes into account. I also KNOW it doesn't take defender and goalie positioning into account.
I'd be willing to bet Marner does three things much better than the rest of the "average" impact guys:
1. Holds onto the puck waiting for better opportunities- this would have a NEGATIVE impact as his rates would go down if he's not force feeding guys every opportunity.
2. Freezes the defender or gets a second defender to come over to him to overhelp- freeing up time/space for his linemate.
3. Freezes or pulls the goalie further out of position before feeding his linemates.
I have my doubts the xG models take much of that into account and just going by rates paints Marner in a more negative light than his actual contributions.