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Training Camp Thread - Currently with Marner now

princedpw said:
herman said:
https://twitter.com/hennytweets/status/1172484453563867143

When Muzzin is taking reps with Barrie instead, Liljegren is partnered with Kivihalme.
Click to expand...

Interesting
Click to expand...

No one else has reported the Muzzin-Liljegren pairing and Henny somewhat frequently points out incorrect lines/pairings.
 
princedpw said:
herman said:
https://twitter.com/steveburtch/status/1172307431629606912

Hey guys, it looks like we have a good team.
Click to expand...

I?ve seen these charts a ton of times.

On the one hand, I wonder if the circumstances in which Marner is without Tavares (eg, as a pk roles into 5-on-5? Just with crappy players?) are somehow skewing the results. (There?s also the Marner-vs-Brown withyou/withoutyou with Kadri that don?t shed Marner in a positive light.).

On the other hand, I can?t help wonder if, well, they are telling us something pretty important.

[this is an example of how to write a content-free post in case anyone wants to follow my lead.]
Click to expand...

I will say this is just a hunch and I don't have data to back it up- so feel free to disagree or blast me. 

These models are now using expected goals instead of Corsi to try and isolate impact- which I think is an improvement.  Obviously a shot from the top of the slot is gonna be very good.  I'd be willing to bet a guy like Kapanen could set up Tavares for those shots just as often as Marner.  Despite xG saying it takes quality into account- my understanding is its using shot location and not a whole lot more (maybe time from entering the zone?).  I don't believe it takes Royal Road passes into account.  I also KNOW it doesn't take defender and goalie positioning into account.

I'd be willing to bet Marner does three things much better than the rest of the "average" impact guys:

1.  Holds onto the puck waiting for better opportunities- this would have a NEGATIVE impact as his rates would go down if he's not force feeding guys every opportunity.
2.  Freezes the defender or gets a second defender to come over to him to overhelp- freeing up time/space for his linemate.
3.  Freezes or pulls the goalie further out of position before feeding his linemates.

I have my doubts the xG models take much of that into account and just going by rates paints Marner in a more negative light than his actual contributions.

 
Coco-puffs said:
princedpw said:
herman said:
https://twitter.com/steveburtch/status/1172307431629606912

Hey guys, it looks like we have a good team.
Click to expand...

I?ve seen these charts a ton of times.

On the one hand, I wonder if the circumstances in which Marner is without Tavares (eg, as a pk roles into 5-on-5? Just with crappy players?) are somehow skewing the results. (There?s also the Marner-vs-Brown withyou/withoutyou with Kadri that don?t shed Marner in a positive light.).

On the other hand, I can?t help wonder if, well, they are telling us something pretty important.

[this is an example of how to write a content-free post in case anyone wants to follow my lead.]
Click to expand...

I will say this is just a hunch and I don't have data to back it up- so feel free to disagree or blast me. 

These models are now using expected goals instead of Corsi to try and isolate impact- which I think is an improvement.  Obviously a shot from the top of the slot is gonna be very good.  I'd be willing to bet a guy like Kapanen could set up Tavares for those shots just as often as Marner.  Despite xG saying it takes quality into account- my understanding is its using shot location and not a whole lot more (maybe time from entering the zone?).  I don't believe it takes Royal Road passes into account.  I also KNOW it doesn't take defender and goalie positioning into account.

I'd be willing to bet Marner does three things much better than the rest of the "average" impact guys:

1.  Holds onto the puck waiting for better opportunities- this would have a NEGATIVE impact as his rates would go down if he's not force feeding guys every opportunity.
2.  Freezes the defender or gets a second defender to come over to him to overhelp- freeing up time/space for his linemate.
3.  Freezes or pulls the goalie further out of position before feeding his linemates.

I have my doubts the xG models take much of that into account and just going by rates paints Marner in a more negative light than his actual contributions.
Click to expand...

I'm here mostly for the comedy but you guys sure uncork some decent analysis.
 
Siegel with the handy list of all the lines from day 1:

Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Kapanen-Brooks (Tavares)-Bracco
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Petan
Moore-Spezza-Aberg
Agostino-Kossila-Marchment
Timashov-Gauthier-Korshkov
Conrad-Shore-Read

Rielly-Ceci
Muzzin-Barrie
Sandin-Schmaltz
Harpur-Marincin
Gravel-Holl
Kivihalme-Liljegren

Safe to say that gives us a pretty good look what our top-12 forwards are going to look like on opening day. The past two training camps had the lines set from the very start as well.

That bottom pairing defence will obviously need to be decided through pre-season games.
 
I don't get the point of Petan.  Yes, limited eyball time so far but he looked to me like a much less effective Ennis.
 
I'm really interested in seeing what Kivihalme can do.

CarltonTheBear said:
Siegel with the handy list of all the lines from day 1:

Johnsson-Matthews-Nylander
Kapanen-Brooks (Tavares)-Bracco
Mikheyev-Kerfoot-Petan
Moore-Spezza-Aberg
Agostino-Kossila-Marchment
Timashov-Gauthier-Korshkov
Conrad-Shore-Read

Rielly-Ceci
Muzzin-Barrie
Sandin-Schmaltz
Harpur-Marincin
Gravel-Holl
Kivihalme-Liljegren

Safe to say that gives us a pretty good look what our top-12 forwards are going to look like on opening day. The past two training camps had the lines set from the very start as well.

That bottom pairing defence will obviously need to be decided through pre-season games.
Click to expand...
 
https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1172521509577011200

D?awwwww

Edit:
Sandin is rep'd by Lewis Gross as well, if I recall correctly.
 
Coco-puffs said:
princedpw said:
I?ve seen these charts a ton of times.

On the one hand, I wonder if the circumstances in which Marner is without Tavares (eg, as a pk roles into 5-on-5? Just with crappy players?) are somehow skewing the results. (There?s also the Marner-vs-Brown withyou/withoutyou with Kadri that don?t shed Marner in a positive light.).

On the other hand, I can?t help wonder if, well, they are telling us something pretty important.

[this is an example of how to write a content-free post in case anyone wants to follow my lead.]
Click to expand...

I will say this is just a hunch and I don't have data to back it up- so feel free to disagree or blast me. 

These models are now using expected goals instead of Corsi to try and isolate impact- which I think is an improvement.  Obviously a shot from the top of the slot is gonna be very good.  I'd be willing to bet a guy like Kapanen could set up Tavares for those shots just as often as Marner.  Despite xG saying it takes quality into account- my understanding is its using shot location and not a whole lot more (maybe time from entering the zone?).  I don't believe it takes Royal Road passes into account.  I also KNOW it doesn't take defender and goalie positioning into account.

I'd be willing to bet Marner does three things much better than the rest of the "average" impact guys:

1.  Holds onto the puck waiting for better opportunities- this would have a NEGATIVE impact as his rates would go down if he's not force feeding guys every opportunity.
2.  Freezes the defender or gets a second defender to come over to him to overhelp- freeing up time/space for his linemate.
3.  Freezes or pulls the goalie further out of position before feeding his linemates.

I have my doubts the xG models take much of that into account and just going by rates paints Marner in a more negative light than his actual contributions.
Click to expand...

There is a regression analysis applied to the xG data to account for teammates and situations (to a degree). These charts, specifically, are isolated impacts, so it kind of makes sense for a playmaker who doesn't shoot as much as he maybe ought to.

Marner, for some reason, doesn't show up as positively as most would expect in the hockeyviz and Evolving-Hockey models (RAPM). His profile on hockeyviz looks a lot like Patrick Kane's (whose style Marner does emulate). I think his selectiveness is part of the reason. Marner's on-ice numbers, i.e. how he and his linemates in general do together, however, still shows his net effect is very positive.
marnemi97

You can see the red zone largely lines up with Tavares' isolated impact.
 
I noticed that Marlie signees Trey Bradley, Riley Woods, Ryan Moore and draft pick Zach Bouthillier weren't on the training camp roster or injured list. Any updates on these players?
 
sooner2220 said:
I noticed that Marlie signees Trey Bradley, Riley Woods, Ryan Moore and draft pick Zach Bouthillier weren't on the training camp roster or injured list. Any updates on these players?
Click to expand...

A bunch of prospects with zero chance of making the NHL roster were 'sent down'. They'll join the Marlies camp which opens later this month.
 
herman said:
No one with performance bonuses is making the team this year.
Click to expand...

On a somewhat related note, there's a chance that by not missing like a month of the season Marner just ruined Jeremy Bracco's NHL career.
 
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