Unofficial 2012/2013 Armchair GM

[Bender]

Yea I know. It's a nice trick that you also employ in your arguments so as to technically be covered against counter arguments

Referring to an opinion held by most but not all is a "trick"? Pointing out that the opinion is not held by everyone is a counter argument?

I knew I picked the wrong week to give up horse tranquilizers.

I actually wrote an example of how I felt on draft day when it happened and it was ignored because it didn't suit his argument. Oh well.

 

[Kin]

You're exagerrating with this example.  Yes, Rask was highly regarded, but there were two goalies that the Leafs considered elite prospects.

But my point isn't what the Leafs considered because, clearly, the Leafs perception at the time both in regards to Rask vs. Pogge and Raycroft's ability to play in the changed NHL were, to put it bluntly, wackadoo.

My point is that outside the organization, while both prospects were well regarded, Rask was seen as the better guy.

  With Rielly, he's the blue chipper of Leafs' prospects.

Maybe, although if you considered Gardiner part of the equation I think you'd get some argument there.

  And their relative draft positions, I think, matter in this comparison as well.  Maybe Stuart Percy would make a better example, though I understand why you would pick Rielly.

Well, I suppose my counter to that is that Stuart Percy might be a longshot to crack the list of top 50 defensive prospects in the league whereas Tukka Rask was very much on the shortlist at the time of the best goaltending prospects in the game. Rielly was drafted 5th overall, sure, but he was also the 3rd defenseman chosen in his draft. Rask was picked 21st overall, sure, but was the 2nd goaltender chosen in his draft. The point isn't what Rielly is to the Leafs, it's what Rielly is to the world of defensive prospects.

So in light of all that I think it's an apt comparison. If anything I'm probably being a little kind to JFJ on it.

 

[Erndog]

I don't want to promote another board here, but here's the Rask for Raycroft thread when it happened:

Tor-Bos Deal:  Raycroft for Rask

You'll see, the majority of fans didn't like the trade.

So please no revisionist history.  This same sort of thread happened here too, I remember.

 

[Zee]

I don't want to promote another board here, but here's the Rask for Raycroft thread when it happened:

Tor-Bos Deal:  Raycroft for Rask

You'll see, the majority of fans didn't like the trade.

So please no revisionist history.  This same sort of thread happened here too, I remember.

I went through the first page and counted the replies (trying to take note of duplicate posters) to see the "hate", "love" and "wait and see"

hate: 12
love: 7
wait and see: 3

Not exactly a runaway hate at least by the first page.

 

[Erndog]

I don't want to promote another board here, but here's the Rask for Raycroft thread when it happened:

Tor-Bos Deal:  Raycroft for Rask

You'll see, the majority of fans didn't like the trade.

So please no revisionist history.  This same sort of thread happened here too, I remember.

I went through the first page and counted the replies (trying to take note of duplicate posters) to see the "hate", "love" and "wait and see"

hate: 12
love: 7
wait and see: 3

Not exactly a runaway hate at least by the first page.

I looked at the 2nd page.  I see 1 poster that likes it (shaner), and 1 that thinks its a win-win (TheBudsForever).  The rest either didn't like it, were fans of other teams or just had vague comments.

 

[Zee]

I don't want to promote another board here, but here's the Rask for Raycroft thread when it happened:

Tor-Bos Deal:  Raycroft for Rask

You'll see, the majority of fans didn't like the trade.

So please no revisionist history.  This same sort of thread happened here too, I remember.

I went through the first page and counted the replies (trying to take note of duplicate posters) to see the "hate", "love" and "wait and see"

hate: 12
love: 7
wait and see: 3

Not exactly a runaway hate at least by the first page.

I looked at the 2nd page.  I see 1 poster that likes it (shaner), and 1 that thinks its a win-win (TheBudsForever).  The rest either didn't like it, were fans of other teams or just had vague comments.

Well i'm not about to go through the entire thread, but I think there was a fair share of people who didn't mind the deal.

 

[lc9]

I don't want to promote another board here, but here's the Rask for Raycroft thread when it happened:

Tor-Bos Deal:  Raycroft for Rask

You'll see, the majority of fans didn't like the trade.

So please no revisionist history.  This same sort of thread happened here too, I remember.

I went through the first page and counted the replies (trying to take note of duplicate posters) to see the "hate", "love" and "wait and see"

hate: 12
love: 7
wait and see: 3

Not exactly a runaway hate at least by the first page.

So in total, there were 22 respondents in your estimation.  3 were neutral and 7 loved the trade.  7/22=31.8%.  12 people hated it, 12/22=54.5%.  That is a 22.7% difference.  In what world is a nearly 23% difference not a run away?  I would say these numbers are even generous based on the sample size. 

 

[Zee]

I don't want to promote another board here, but here's the Rask for Raycroft thread when it happened:

Tor-Bos Deal:  Raycroft for Rask

You'll see, the majority of fans didn't like the trade.

So please no revisionist history.  This same sort of thread happened here too, I remember.

I went through the first page and counted the replies (trying to take note of duplicate posters) to see the "hate", "love" and "wait and see"

hate: 12
love: 7
wait and see: 3

Not exactly a runaway hate at least by the first page.

So in total, there were 22 respondents in your estimation.  3 were neutral and 7 loved the trade.  7/22=31.8%.  12 people hated it, 12/22=54.5%.  That is a 22.7% difference.  In what world is a nearly 23% difference not a run away?  I would say these numbers are even generous based on the sample size.

I would include the "wait and see" people into the other category.  If they didn't immediately hate the trade they obviously thought Rask hadn't proven anything.  By that account 10/22 would be 45%

 

[Erndog]

I don't want to promote another board here, but here's the Rask for Raycroft thread when it happened:

Tor-Bos Deal:  Raycroft for Rask

You'll see, the majority of fans didn't like the trade.

So please no revisionist history.  This same sort of thread happened here too, I remember.

I went through the first page and counted the replies (trying to take note of duplicate posters) to see the "hate", "love" and "wait and see"

hate: 12
love: 7
wait and see: 3

Not exactly a runaway hate at least by the first page.

So in total, there were 22 respondents in your estimation.  3 were neutral and 7 loved the trade.  7/22=31.8%.  12 people hated it, 12/22=54.5%.  That is a 22.7% difference.  In what world is a nearly 23% difference not a run away?  I would say these numbers are even generous based on the sample size.

I would include the "wait and see" people into the other category.  If they didn't immediately hate the trade they obviously thought Rask hadn't proven anything.  By that account 10/22 would be 45%

You can play around with the "wait and see" group any way....  so remove them entirely.  It's the only fair way.

Because I would put the "wait and see" people closer to "hate" because clearly they didn't like the trade and had reservations on it from the get go.

So I would say 15/22 did not LIKE the trade from the get go.  That's close to 70% of people who IMMEDIATELY did not like the trade.

 

[Zee]

I don't want to promote another board here, but here's the Rask for Raycroft thread when it happened:

Tor-Bos Deal:  Raycroft for Rask

You'll see, the majority of fans didn't like the trade.

So please no revisionist history.  This same sort of thread happened here too, I remember.

I went through the first page and counted the replies (trying to take note of duplicate posters) to see the "hate", "love" and "wait and see"

hate: 12
love: 7
wait and see: 3

Not exactly a runaway hate at least by the first page.

So in total, there were 22 respondents in your estimation.  3 were neutral and 7 loved the trade.  7/22=31.8%.  12 people hated it, 12/22=54.5%.  That is a 22.7% difference.  In what world is a nearly 23% difference not a run away?  I would say these numbers are even generous based on the sample size.

I would include the "wait and see" people into the other category.  If they didn't immediately hate the trade they obviously thought Rask hadn't proven anything.  By that account 10/22 would be 45%

You can play around with the "wait and see" group any way....  so remove them entirely.  It's the only fair way.

Because I would put the "wait and see" people closer to "hate" because clearly they didn't like the trade and had reservations on it from the get go.

So I would say 15/22 did not LIKE the trade from the get go.  That's close to 70% of people who IMMEDIATELY did not like the trade.

You should be a lawyer. 

 

[Kin]

Regardless of the specific numbers it's pretty good proof positive that thinking the trade stunk isn't just the result of after the fact analysis. Even if it were split evenly 50-50 then 50% of those people just would have been wrong.

 

[McPwnage]

This is what I would like to see going forward.

1) Trade Bozak and a prospect for O'Reilly
2) Sign Getzlaf as a UFA
3) trade/buy out Grabovski in the offseason

Making our top 9

Van Reimsdyk - Getzlaf - Kessel
Lupul - O'Reilly - Kulemin/MacArthur/someone else
Frattin - Kadri - Kulemin/MacArthur/someone else

 

[Jalili]

This is what I would like to see going forward.

1) Trade Bozak and a prospect for O'Reilly
2) Sign Getzlaf as a UFA
3) trade/buy out Grabovski in the offseason

Making our top 9

Van Reimsdyk - Getzlaf - Kessel
Lupul - O'Reilly - Kulemin/MacArthur/someone else
Frattin - Kadri - Kulemin/MacArthur/someone else

I would too but you don't think another team would look at that offer and say we can offer you a better asset than Bozak?

 

[Tigger]

This is what I would like to see going forward.

1) Trade Bozak and a prospect for O'Reilly
2) Sign Getzlaf as a UFA
3) trade/buy out Grabovski in the offseason

Making our top 9

Van Reimsdyk - Getzlaf - Kessel
Lupul - O'Reilly - Kulemin/MacArthur/someone else
Frattin - Kadri - Kulemin/MacArthur/someone else

Why would Colorado make that trade? What makes you think Getzlaf will be available? Why buy out Grabovski?

 

[princedpw]

We need more offense with Lupul and Frattin out.  Bring up Connolly to play on the 3rd line.  Reunite Kulemin Grabbo Mac.

 

[Champ Kind]

This is what I would like to see going forward.

1) Trade Bozak and a prospect for O'Reilly
2) Sign Getzlaf as a UFA
3) trade/buy out Grabovski in the offseason

Making our top 9

Van Reimsdyk - Getzlaf - Kessel
Lupul - O'Reilly - Kulemin/MacArthur/someone else
Frattin - Kadri - Kulemin/MacArthur/someone else

Why would Colorado make that trade? What makes you think Getzlaf will be available? Why buy out Grabovski?

While I think including Grabovski is a potential buy-out candidate is premature, there's beginning to be some merit in this consideration.  Grabo plays hard, is defensively responsible,  and I don't think his effort has diminished this year.  But he's got to produce offensively.  To me, five more years at $5.5M for someone who is playing like a very good third line centre is unsustainable.  I agree, it's too early to draw any conclusions, but if his plays continues then it's soemthing that has to be considered either this year or next.

 

[Boston Leaf]

We need more offense with Lupul and Frattin out.  Bring up Connolly to play on the 3rd line.  Reunite Kulemin Grabbo Mac.

How has Connolly played with the Marlies?

 

[princedpw]

We need more offense with Lupul and Frattin out.  Bring up Connolly to play on the 3rd line.  Reunite Kulemin Grabbo Mac.

How has Connolly played with the Marlies?

He currently has 3G, 5pt in 9 games.  Not great. Small sample size.  His history suggests he's got more in him offensively if paired with Kadri than one of Mcclement or Komarov.

 

[Zee]

This is what I would like to see going forward.

1) Trade Bozak and a prospect for O'Reilly
2) Sign Getzlaf as a UFA
3) trade/buy out Grabovski in the offseason

Making our top 9

Van Reimsdyk - Getzlaf - Kessel
Lupul - O'Reilly - Kulemin/MacArthur/someone else
Frattin - Kadri - Kulemin/MacArthur/someone else

Why would Colorado make that trade? What makes you think Getzlaf will be available? Why buy out Grabovski?

While I think including Grabovski is a potential buy-out candidate is premature, there's beginning to be some merit in this consideration.  Grabo plays hard, is defensively responsible,  and I don't think his effort has diminished this year.  But he's got to produce offensively.  To me, five more years at $5.5M for someone who is playing like a very good third line centre is unsustainable.  I agree, it's too early to draw any conclusions, but if his plays continues then it's soemthing that has to be considered either this year or next.

Grabovski has always been hot and cold, but this season so far he seems colder than normal offensively.  I agree he needs to do more to live up to this salary and so far he's not doing it.  Not sure where that leaves the Leafs in deciding his future with the team.

 

[Britishbulldog]

This is what I would like to see going forward.

1) Trade Bozak and a prospect for O'Reilly
2) Sign Getzlaf as a UFA
3) trade/buy out Grabovski in the offseason

Making our top 9

Van Reimsdyk - Getzlaf - Kessel
Lupul - O'Reilly - Kulemin/MacArthur/someone else
Frattin - Kadri - Kulemin/MacArthur/someone else

Why would Colorado make that trade? What makes you think Getzlaf will be available? Why buy out Grabovski?

While I think including Grabovski is a potential buy-out candidate is premature, there's beginning to be some merit in this consideration.  Grabo plays hard, is defensively responsible,  and I don't think his effort has diminished this year.  But he's got to produce offensively.  To me, five more years at $5.5M for someone who is playing like a very good third line centre is unsustainable.  I agree, it's too early to draw any conclusions, but if his plays continues then it's soemthing that has to be considered either this year or next.

Grabovski has always been hot and cold, but this season so far he seems colder than normal offensively.  I agree he needs to do more to live up to this salary and so far he's not doing it.  Not sure where that leaves the Leafs in deciding his future with the team.

Grabovski has been one of my favorite Leafs for years.  He has played with heart a great compete level, has been responsible at both ends of the rink and had great offensive chemistry with Kulemin.  Then he was given a 1st line, game breaker $5.5 MIL 5 year contract which I don't expect he can ever live up to.

Their are 2 contracts on the Leafs that I think are untradeable. Komisarek's and Grabovski.  Komisarek only has the 1 year left so he actually might be able to be moved in a non-amnesty time by keeping 50% of his salary.

With the 2 buyout amnesty each NHL team I think Nonis really has to consider buying out those 2 players this summer.  Especially if every Leafs fan's ultimate fantasy happens and Getzlaf is signed as a UFA.