Unofficial 2013-2014 Armchair GM Thread

[BlueWhiteBlood]

They can't trade O'Reilly until next March.

Oh right, they matched an offer. Forgot about that.

 

[Rebel_1812]

Horton will be a UFA.  I know he plays RW now, but I think he was drafted as a centre.  Him and Lecavelier give some options in the UFA market to get a centre.  Bozak should be shown the door the time to upgrade is now.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Bozak should be shown the door the time to upgrade is now.

Provided the right one is there, I agree. I think Nonis has to trade for one.

 

[Tigger]

A 'topical' and quickly crunched lineup...

FORWARDS
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Vincent Lecavalier ($6.027m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($5.500m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Joe Colborne ($0.927m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.551m) / Cal Clutterbuck ($2.100m)
Boyd Gordon ($1.725m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)
Ryan Hamilton ($0.700m) / Frazer McLaren ($0.696m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Carl Gunnarsson ($2.550m) / Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Cody Franson ($2.700m)
Jesse Blacker ($0.870m) / Andrew Ference ($3.050m)
Mark Fraser ($0.960m) /
GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m)
Jonathan Bernier ($2.025m)
OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.848% of upper limit)
Matt Frattin ($0.437m?0.5%) Ben Scrivens ($0.062m?0.1%) Mike Komisarek ($0.045m?1.0%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $64,467,065; BONUSES: $460,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $292,935

That's pretty close to the wire, cap wise, still.

 

[princedpw]

My rough calculation suggests the leafs don't really have any more cap space now having Bolland and assuming $3 million for each of Kadri, Franson and Gunnar and $2 million for Bernier.  I mean, they'll fill out the bottom end of their roster with some low-end guys making a million or less but that is about it.  My rough guesses suggest that UFAs like Mac, Horton, Clarkson, Ference even are too rich (the 2.5 million dead space on our roster from buyouts/salary retention hurts). 

 

[Tigger]

My rough calculation suggests the leafs don't really have any more cap space now having Bolland and assuming $3 million for each of Kadri, Franson and Gunnar and $2 million for Bernier.  I mean, they'll fill out the bottom end of their roster with some low-end guys making a million or less but that is about it.  My rough guesses suggest that UFAs like Mac, Horton, Clarkson, Ference even are too rich (the 2.5 million dead space on our roster from buyouts/salary retention hurts).

That's not taking into account the likely buyout of Komisarek though, right? Almost 20 mil I think.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

My rough calculation suggests the leafs don't really have any more cap space now having Bolland and assuming $3 million for each of Kadri, Franson and Gunnar and $2 million for Bernier.  I mean, they'll fill out the bottom end of their roster with some low-end guys making a million or less but that is about it.  My rough guesses suggest that UFAs like Mac, Horton, Clarkson, Ference even are too rich (the 2.5 million dead space on our roster from buyouts/salary retention hurts).

That's not taking into account the likely buyout of Komisarek though, right? Almost 20 mil I think.

Using princedpw's estimates (which I think are fair), the Leafs would have $5,233,333 in cap space. Throw in Colborne ($800k), McLaren ($600k), and Fraser ($800k) for $2.2mil total and we're down to $3,033,333 while still needing a 2nd/3rd line winger and another defenceman (ideally a top-4 guy).

And yeah, that's without a Komisarek buy-out. If he goes, our cap space goes up to $6,608,333. Even that amount would make it tricky to fill those holes. But there's no guarantee that the Leafs buy him out at this point. If he stays AND is on the roster, our cap space is $2,108,333.

With that said, this is all probably a little premature. It's very difficult to look at our cap situation without knowing exactly what is going to happen with Komisarek. And I'm sure Nonis will still be looking to make moves before July 5th comes around.

 

[mr grieves]

My rough calculation suggests the leafs don't really have any more cap space now having Bolland and assuming $3 million for each of Kadri, Franson and Gunnar and $2 million for Bernier.  I mean, they'll fill out the bottom end of their roster with some low-end guys making a million or less but that is about it.  My rough guesses suggest that UFAs like Mac, Horton, Clarkson, Ference even are too rich (the 2.5 million dead space on our roster from buyouts/salary retention hurts).

I think that's a bit too high for Kadri, Franson, and Gunner and that there'll be another $1m left over. But, more importantly, Komi can be bought out and/or Liles moved to open up more space. I don't think there'll be room to sign Lecavalier (unless Grabbo's given away/ bought out), but there's room enough for several of the UFAs that've been brought up.

And with $1.8m + $2.5m (buyouts, retained salary) + the cap going up (~$5m?), shouldn't be too hard to re-sign Kessel, Phaneuf, Gardiner, and Reimer.

Tossed together, a roster I'd feel okay about:

FORWARDS
James Van Riemsdyk ($4.250m) / Mikhail Grabovski ($5.500m) / Phil Kessel ($5.400m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.850m) / David Clarkson ($4.250m)
Joe Colborne ($0.950m) / Dave Bolland ($3.375m) / Nikolai Kulemin ($2.800m)
Viktor Stalberg ($1.000m) / Jay McClement ($1.500m) / Colton Orr ($0.925m)
Jerry D'Amigo ($1.083m) / Frazer McLaren ($0.696m) /

DEFENSEMEN
Dion Phaneuf ($6.500m) / Carl Gunnarsson ($2.250m)
Jake Gardiner ($1.117m) / Andrew Ference ($3.000m)
Cody Franson ($2.750m) / Mark Fraser ($0.660m)
Jesse Blacker ($0.870m) /

GOALTENDERS
James Reimer ($1.800m)
Jonathan Bernier ($1.900m)

OTHER
Buyout: Darcy Tucker ($1.000m)
Buyout: Colby Armstrong ($1.000m)
Buyout: Mike Komisarek ($0.000m)
RETAINED SALARY TRANSACTIONS (0.778% of upper limit)
Matt Frattin ($0.437m?0.5%) Ben Scrivens ($0.062m?0.1%)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,174,917; BONUSES: $672,500
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $1,797,583

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If Nonis is able to sign Kadri, Franson, Ference, Clarkson and Stalberg to those amounts I'll throw him a parade. I'd even be impressed if he got Clarkson for that low, even if I still wouldn't want him.

And if he does get Kadri and Franson for that low, it means they're likely on one-year deals and we'll have to negotiate a higher price next offseason.

 

[Tigger]

My rough calculation suggests the leafs don't really have any more cap space now having Bolland and assuming $3 million for each of Kadri, Franson and Gunnar and $2 million for Bernier.  I mean, they'll fill out the bottom end of their roster with some low-end guys making a million or less but that is about it.  My rough guesses suggest that UFAs like Mac, Horton, Clarkson, Ference even are too rich (the 2.5 million dead space on our roster from buyouts/salary retention hurts).

That's not taking into account the likely buyout of Komisarek though, right? Almost 20 mil I think.

Using princedpw's estimates (which I think are fair), the Leafs would have $5,233,333 in cap space. Throw in Colborne ($800k), McLaren ($600k), and Fraser ($800k) for $2.2mil total and we're down to $3,033,333 while still needing a 2nd/3rd line winger and another defenceman (ideally a top-4 guy).

And yeah, that's without a Komisarek buy-out. If he goes, our cap space goes up to $6,608,333. Even that amount would make it tricky to fill those holes. But there's no guarantee that the Leafs buy him out at this point. If he stays AND is on the roster, our cap space is $2,108,333.

With that said, this is all probably a little premature. It's very difficult to look at our cap situation without knowing exactly what is going to happen with Komisarek. And I'm sure Nonis will still be looking to make moves before July 5th comes around.

Yeah, that seems right for the moment though I think it's fairly likely they'll buyout Komisarek barring a trade of some sort ( unlikely ). I hope Nonis can find another home for Liles, he's an extravagant redundancy.

 

[mr grieves]

If Nonis is able to sign Kadri, Franson, Ference, Clarkson and Stalberg to those amounts I'll throw him a parade. I'd even be impressed if he got Clarkson for that low, even if I still wouldn't want him.

And if he does get Kadri and Franson for that low, it means they're likely on one-year deals and we'll have to negotiate a higher price next offseason.

I was imaging Kadri with a Subban-like bridge contract (which is $2.85m or so, no?), Franson something similar. And Gunnarson isn't the sort of RFA that can hold out for big money.

Not sure what's so unreasonable about Stalberg... Ference is seeing a rather significant raise (and can't we use TO's excellent composting program to lure him?)... and Clarkson... well, I was sort of hoping that'd be MacArthur anyway. Should be able to find 20-25 goals on the wing for less than $4.5m.

Anyhow, $6.6m is more like $10m if JML is moved. And that puts both a second-line winger and a top-4 defenseman in play. If JML isn't moved... I guess he's in the top 4?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Yeah, that seems right for the moment though I think it's fairly likely they'll buyout Komisarek barring a trade of some sort ( unlikely ). I hope Nonis can find another home for Liles, he's an extravagant redundancy.

I'm not sure. I'm a little surprised that it hasn't happened already. I guess there's no rush, but if they were going to buy him out the decision must have been made already. Why wait?

I won't be surprised at all if he does get bought out, but I wouldn't consider it a done deal.

 

[mr grieves]

Yeah, that seems right for the moment though I think it's fairly likely they'll buyout Komisarek barring a trade of some sort ( unlikely ). I hope Nonis can find another home for Liles, he's an extravagant redundancy.

I'm not sure. I'm a little surprised that it hasn't happened already. I guess there's no rush, but if they were going to buy him out the decision must have been made already. Why wait?

I won't be surprised at all if he does get bought out, but I wouldn't consider it a done deal.

The way Nonis sounded during an interview today, seemed buyouts were going to be considered if some unnamed 'other' ways of opening up cap space didn't pan out. He didn't sound all that keen on using them. I'd guess he's trying to move Liles, and, if that fails, buyouts will be announced.

One would hope at least one is used soon. If that cap goes up much next year, there'll be less of a "market" for the buyouts -- not that we've seen (outside of a few rumors about NHL-nixed deals) one develop yet. And all that's just a silly fan's way of thinking about them. Could well be the case that Nonis isn't inclined to use them because he'd like to be good steward of Rogers' money.

 

[Tigger]

Not sure what's so unreasonable about Stalberg... Ference is seeing a rather significant raise (and can't we use TO's excellent composting program to lure him?)... and Clarkson...

Stalberg's going to get more than a mil, for sure, Ference could get more ( I had him at 3mil too ) and if it's a choice of not a lot more dough for Horton instead of Clarkson, I'd choose Nathan.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I was imaging Kadri with a Subban-like bridge contract (which is $2.85m or so, no?), Franson something similar. And Gunnarson isn't the sort of RFA that can hold out for big money.

Since they play different positions, Subban probably isn't a very good comparable for Kadri. Given their draft positions and NHL success, Matt Duchene is probably the best comparable for Kadri and has been mentioned a number of times. He signed a two-year "bridge" deal for $3.5mil. Aside from Duchene though there's almost no successful top-10 draft picks that went for a bridge deal after their ELC expired. So it's going to be very difficult for the Leafs to look at other contracts in these negotiations.

Franson and Subban seem like a good comparison, but Subban's contract is a little deceptive. He was paid $2mil (pro-rated) to play a lock-out shortened season where he missed training camp and the first couple of weeks of the schedule. This upcoming season though he's making $3.75mil. I'm sure that's the number his camp was fighting for in their negotiations. Subban was also coming off a season where he finished 28th among defencemen in points. Franson was 8th this season.

Not sure what's so unreasonable about Stalberg... Ference is seeing a rather significant raise (and can't we use TO's excellent composting program to lure him?)... and Clarkson... well, I was sort of hoping that'd be MacArthur anyway. Should be able to find 20-25 goals on the wing for less than $4.5m.

Stalberg was on pace for 40 points this season. He's also 27 years old, and has very good size and speed. Last season Tootoo signed for $1.9mil per for 3 years after a 30 point season. Ponikarovsky signed a 1-year deal for $1.8mil after a 33 point season. $2mil will probably be the minimum Stalberg gets.

As for Ference, I think you can probably make the argument that he's the best defenceman available. $3mil would be a very fair price to pay for a player like him, but a bidding war will drive his asking price way up. Last July Bryan Allen, Sami Salo, and Sheldon Souray all got at least $3.7mil. That's probably what Ference will be looking at.

 

[mr grieves]

I was imaging Kadri with a Subban-like bridge contract (which is $2.85m or so, no?), Franson something similar. And Gunnarson isn't the sort of RFA that can hold out for big money.

Since they play different positions, Subban probably isn't a very good comparable for Kadri. Given their draft positions and NHL success, Matt Duchene is probably the best comparable for Kadri and has been mentioned a number of times. He signed a two-year "bridge" deal for $3.5mil. Aside from Duchene though there's almost no successful top-10 draft picks that went for a bridge deal after their ELC expired. So it's going to be very difficult for the Leafs to look at other contracts in these negotiations.

Franson and Subban seem like a good comparison, but Subban's contract is a little deceptive. He was paid $2mil (pro-rated) to play a lock-out shortened season where he missed training camp and the first couple of weeks of the schedule. This upcoming season though he's making $3.75mil. I'm sure that's the number his camp was fighting for in their negotiations. Subban was also coming off a season where he finished 28th among defencemen in points. Franson was 8th this season.

Not sure what's so unreasonable about Stalberg... Ference is seeing a rather significant raise (and can't we use TO's excellent composting program to lure him?)... and Clarkson... well, I was sort of hoping that'd be MacArthur anyway. Should be able to find 20-25 goals on the wing for less than $4.5m.

Stalberg was on pace for 40 points this season. He's also 27 years old, and has very good size and speed. Last season Tootoo signed for $1.9mil per for 3 years after a 30 point season. Ponikarovsky signed a 1-year deal for $1.8mil after a 33 point season. $2mil will probably be the minimum Stalberg gets.

As for Ference, I think you can probably make the argument that he's the best defenceman available. $3mil would be a very fair price to pay for a player like him, but a bidding war will drive his asking price way up. Last July Bryan Allen, Sami Salo, and Sheldon Souray all got at least $3.7mil. That's probably what Ference will be looking at.

Huh. Nik had convinced me giving up Scrivens and Frattin  -- while retaining another half of a million in salary -- wasn't so bad... now I'm not so sure.

You don't think the cap will at least reign in the UFA deals a bit?

 

[hockeyfan1]

If Nonis is able to sign Kadri, Franson, Ference, Clarkson and Stalberg to those amounts I'll throw him a parade. I'd even be impressed if he got Clarkson for that low, even if I still wouldn't want him.

And if he does get Kadri and Franson for that low, it means they're likely on one-year deals and we'll have to negotiate a higher price next offseason.

If it were possible (including all due 'restraints'), it would suit the Leafs on ice if not on paper at least, on a practical viewpoint, to have an experienced d-man (Ference), and an eager forward in Clarkson. 

 

[Kin]

My rough calculation suggests the leafs don't really have any more cap space now having Bolland and assuming $3 million for each of Kadri, Franson and Gunnar and $2 million for Bernier.  I mean, they'll fill out the bottom end of their roster with some low-end guys making a million or less but that is about it.  My rough guesses suggest that UFAs like Mac, Horton, Clarkson, Ference even are too rich (the 2.5 million dead space on our roster from buyouts/salary retention hurts).

I think the problem with that, though, is that if you do sign Gunnarsson and Franson to 3 million dollar contracts each that's not the Leafs pricing themselves out of Ference, that's the Leafs saying in big bright bold neon letters that they don't want Ference. If the Leafs make those signings then they would have five defensemen on the books making 3+ million of the cap plus Gardiner who's probably going to get top 4 minutes. Even if we imagine a cap that was 4 million higher so they could sign Ference it doesn't make any sense to sign him and then have one or both of your bottom pairing defensemen making that kind of money.

The Leafs entry into this year's free agent market always depended on them making some tough choices about who they have vs. who they ideally want. Trading/buying out Liles and Komisarek was always where that money was going to come from.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

I think the problem with that, though, is that if you do sign Gunnarsson and Franson to 3 million dollar contracts each that's not the Leafs pricing themselves out of Ference, that's the Leafs saying in big bright bold neon letters that they don't want Ference. If the Leafs make those signings then they would have five defensemen on the books making 3+ million of the cap plus Gardiner who's probably going to get top 4 minutes. Even if we imagine a cap that was 4 million higher so they could sign Ference it doesn't make any sense to sign him and then have one or both of your bottom pairing defensemen making that kind of money.

I agree with all that. The Leafs have 4 defensemen that will play top 4 minutes already, it's wiser to save the money for something else and give the bottom 2-3 spots to younger players and or stay at home players on small contracts.

That is unless they have a decent trade that brings in another top 4 guy that improves the team, that changes things. We'll have to wait and see how this weird off-season plays out, with all it's dynamics.

 

[Zee]

I'd even rather have Horton over Clarkson. At least with Horton you know you're getting a top-6 forward. I have a serious problem overpaying for 3rd liners. Look at every Stanley Cup finalist in the past 5 years and find me more than 2 overpaid players (total) in a teams bottom-6 group of forwards.

Why not both?  Horton and Clarkson.