Unofficial 2013-2014 Armchair GM Thread

[Tigger]

Maybe, depends on how things flush out this year. Say, if the Leafs aren't in the playoff hunt, maybe they make a few moves, maybe it leaves more dough on the table for them to play with... does he get a lot more than what he's making now?

Yeah, Clarkson came to mind before I posted but if the Leafs accept that mistake and relegate him to the third line, where he belongs, and say move Kulemin in a deal, that should leave a top six wing spot open, in theory.

 

[bustaheims]

Maybe, depends on how things flush out this year. Say, if the Leafs aren't in the playoff hunt, maybe they make a few moves, maybe it leaves more dough on the table for them to play with... does he get a lot more than what he's making now?

I don't know about a lot more, but, he'll almost certainly get more than the $5.25M per that Clarkson got. His agent will certainly use that as a baseline. As for the Leafs making moves, there's really not a lot of future salary for them to move out without trading a core piece. Unless they somehow move Bozak or Clarkson (both of which seem unlikely due to their contract situations), the only real salaries to move out would be Liles (a difficult move without retaining some) or Gunnarsson. Everyone else with significant salary is, to some extend, a core piece.

 

[Champ Kind]

A few things have become clear to me as we near the halfway point of this season:

a) the Leafs have some good, young players, some of whom are the calibre that the team can build around
b) the team needs to grow and, despite the relative success of last season, they are not serious contenders (although tiptoeing into the playoffs in the 7'th / 8'th seed may be likely)
c) the team is likely some years away from true contention
d) there seem to be subjective (or qualitatative, or cultural, or whatever you prefer) issues with this team

Bearing these issues in mind, here are a few of near-term moves that I think need to be made:

1) Trade Phaneuf before the deadline: for me, this isn't as much about the player himself as it is the committment that needs to be made to him relative to the runway this team has.  Dion will be 29 when next season starts and while I like him at the $7M he'll command for the next few seasons, I'm sceptical at the prospect of committing 7 or 8 years.  A late first round pick + a good prospect, maybe a decent backup goalie ala Ben Scrivens, would be a good return.

2) Trade James Reimer and Nazem Kadri in the offseason for either a top pairing defenseman or someone to centre the top line. 

3) Sign Dave Bolland to a 5 year deal: I see Bolland as a very important part of this team.  He has the ability to provide options, move up or down the lineup, play responsible defense, and give real value on the third line.  Kulemin gets resigned as well.

4) Tread carefully but explore whether Paul Stastney and Dan Girardi can be obtained on a reasonable deal.  Sign Brian Boyle or resign McClement.

Like I said, I think that this team still needs to develop and evolve, but some of the basic pieces are there.  I really like what Peter Holland and Jonathan Bernier are doing, which makes Reimer and Kadri expendable.  The team builds around Kessel, JVR, and Lupul in the top 6, Bolland and Clarkson in the bottom 6, and Reilly, Gardiner, and Franson on defense.

Kessel - Stastny (UFA) / TBD - JVR
Lupul - Bozak / Holland - Raymond / TBD (UFA - Moulson, Penner)
Kulemin - Bolland - Clarkson
Broll - Boyle / McClement - D'Amigo / Biggs

Girardi - Bogosian (dealt for Reimer +)
Reilly - Gardiner
Franson - Mark Stuart (UFA)

Bernier
McIntyre

I haven't considered the specific cap implications, but gut feel is that this would work while providing a bit of flexibility.  Additional tinkering needed, of course, but this would be the rough outline of the 2014-15 team that continues to build toward contention.

 

[bustaheims]

Bearing these issues in mind, here are a few of near-term moves that I think need to be made:

1) Trade Phaneuf before the deadline: for me, this isn't as much about the player himself as it is the committment that needs to be made to him relative to the runway this team has.  Dion will be 29 when next season starts and while I like him at the $7M he'll command for the next few seasons, I'm sceptical at the prospect of committing 7 or 8 years.  A late first round pick + a good prospect, maybe a decent backup goalie ala Ben Scrivens, would be a good return.

That prospect better be more than just a good prospect, otherwise, that's a terrible return. If that's the best offer the Leafs get for Phaneuf at the deadline, they're signing him to an extension, not trading him.

2) Trade James Reimer and Nazem Kadri in the offseason for either a top pairing defenseman or someone to centre the top line. 

At this point, I wouldn't be looking to trade either of the team's goalies, as neither has really stepped up and claimed the starting job. On top of that, I doubt the team gets full value trading both of these guys together, so, I'd also prefer not to do that, but, if Kadri is going, another top 6 centre has to either have been brought in already or has to be coming back in the deal.

3) Sign Dave Bolland to a 5 year deal: I see Bolland as a very important part of this team.  He has the ability to provide options, move up or down the lineup, play responsible defense, and give real value on the third line.  Kulemin gets resigned as well.

I like Bolland, but, right now, if he's healthy and the Leafs are out of a playoff spot, I think moving him at the deadline might be the best value proposition for the Leafs. Probably the same thing with Kulemin, unfortunately. I would, however, look very strongly at bringing them back into the fold in the summer.

4) Tread carefully but explore whether Paul Stastney and Dan Girardi can be obtained on a reasonable deal.  Sign Brian Boyle or resign McClement.

I agree with you here. Looking at the more successful teams in the league, most of them have not brought in many big dollar UFAs from other teams, and those that they have largely been of the "no-brainer" variety or on 1 year deals. The best teams in the league build through the draft and through trades, while using UFAs more for depth roles. I'd prefer to see the Leafs employ the same strategy (and, right now, that's sort of where they are, as Clarkson is the only big money player brought into the organization as a NHL UFA). While I'd prefer to move on from McClement as well (though, that may be in part due to the way Carlyle overuses him), if he can be signed for a contract similar to the one he's already on, that wouldn't be the end of the world.

Like I said, I think that this team still needs to develop and evolve, but some of the basic pieces are there.  I really like what Peter Holland and Jonathan Bernier are doing, which makes Reimer and Kadri expendable.

I touched on the Reimer/Bernier thing earlier, so, I'm not going to rehash that here, but, as much as I've enjoyed watching Holland play, he does not at all make Kadri expendable. This whole concept of one player making another player expendable is largely asinine. It really only applies to when you have two starting goalies or when you have a situation where two guys are looking for big money to fill the same role. Neither is the case here. There's room on this team for both Holland and Kadri,and, quite frankly, the team will almost certainly need both of them going forward.

The team builds around Kessel, JVR, and Lupul in the top 6, Bolland and Clarkson in the bottom 6, and Reilly, Gardiner, and Franson on defense.

Franson is probably the one player on the team I trade before next season, regardless of how the Leafs fare. When he's at his best, he's a 3rd pairing guy getting a lot of PP time. When he's used more than that, he's struggled. If history is any indication, negotiations with him this summer are going to be difficult, and, my guess is there are strong odds that he'll opt for arbitration. The odds are he's either going to end up with a contract that pays him more than what the Leafs should be giving him for the role he's best suited for or he'll end up on another one year deal - only, this time it won't be as reasonable and he'll be a UFA at the end of it. The Leafs should be seriously looking to move him while his value is high.

 

[Champ Kind]

I'm not sure how one could reasonably expect a deadline return for Phaneuf much greater than what I outlined, unless a contract extension is announced with the deal.  I'm struggling to find comparables, but the Dan Boyle trade comes to mind, though he was already signed to a long-term deal, and the return seems farily consistent.  How many times have top-pairing, UFA eligible, sub-30 year old defensemen been traded at the deadline?  Plus, I've already made the decision that Phaneuf moves on, so better the proposed return than nothing at all.

I disagree with your assessment of Bolland.  Coming off major injury, I don't think he has much value at the deadline, past playoff performance notwithstanding.  I think that, at 28 years old going into next year, he offers a lot of long-term value to the eafs.  By and large, the whole 'trading a pending UFA and resigning him the next summer' thing is an unreasonable proposition.

I also disagree with your statement that

This whole concept of one player making another player expendable is largely asinine.

.  I'd give you that it might be premature to consider for the Leafs, but I consider this part of the effective management of assets is the premise behind drafting the best player available.  Different context, but isn't this what the Tampa Bay Rays do so well?  Granted, that's done primarily from a cost perspective, but boy doesn't the James Shields for Will Myers deal+++ look pretty darn good now?  And that's only done because they have Jeremy Hellickson (or whoever) to fill in. 

I think that if you have strength in some areas and weaknesses in others it's prudent to reallocate assets in the hopes it makes your team stronger.  Whether it's the right time for the Leafs to do this is up for debate, but I have no doubt they'll need to go that route at some point.

 

[bustaheims]

I'm not sure how one could reasonably expect a deadline return for Phaneuf much greater than what I outlined, unless a contract extension is announced with the deal.  I'm struggling to find comparables, but the Dan Boyle trade comes to mind, though he was already signed to a long-term deal, and the return seems farily consistent.  How many times have top-pairing, UFA eligible, sub-30 year old defensemen been traded at the deadline?  Plus, I've already made the decision that Phaneuf moves on, so better the proposed return than nothing at all.

A 1st round pick, good but not great prospect and maybe a backup goalie is not going to be enough for the Leafs to move on from Phaneuf. That's what I'm saying, and that's all that really matters. That's basically what the Leafs got for Kaberle when the entire league knew he wasn't going to be re-signed. The price you're expecting is the price teams get when they've already moved on from the player. The Leafs haven't done that with Phaneuf.

I disagree with your assessment of Bolland.  Coming off major injury, I don't think he has much value at the deadline, past playoff performance notwithstanding.  I think that, at 28 years old going into next year, he offers a lot of long-term value to the eafs.  By and large, the whole 'trading a pending UFA and resigning him the next summer' thing is an unreasonable proposition.

Playoff performance is what teams are paying for at the deadline. If he's shown himself to be healthy by then, he should net the Leafs a nice return for what they paid to acquire him in the first place. As for signing players the team has previously traded . . . while I'll grant it's not a strategy teams should rely on, it's not like it's something that never happens, either. It's not all that uncommon.

I also disagree with your statement that

This whole concept of one player making another player expendable is largely asinine.

.  I'd give you that it might be premature to consider for the Leafs, but I consider this part of the effective management of assets is the premise behind drafting the best player available.  Different context, but isn't this what the Tampa Bay Rays do so well?  Granted, that's done primarily from a cost perspective, but boy doesn't the James Shields for Will Myers deal+++ look pretty darn good now?  And that's only done because they have Jeremy Hellickson (or whoever) to fill in. 

Using a trade from another sport is so completely out of context that I don't know where to begin - especially when you're talking about starting pitchers. Nevertheless, as you mentioned, that was done very much from a cost perspective, which, as I outlined, was one of the areas where moving one player in favour of another is reasonable. That's not true of the Leafs situation with Kadri and Holland. There are no cost issues there.

I think that if you have strength in some areas and weaknesses in others it's prudent to reallocate assets in the hopes it makes your team stronger.  Whether it's the right time for the Leafs to do this is up for debate, but I have no doubt they'll need to go that route at some point.

Sure, but, right now, down the middle is very much not an area of strength for the Leafs. It's an area that has improved a little this season, but, it's still something most people consider to be an area of weakness. Right now, the team's only real area of strength is on the wing, and, there's not really enough depth there to take a significant long-term piece out of it. They need help down the middle, they need help on defence and they need one of their young goalies to actually show that they're going to be a starter in this league long-term. I don't see the Leafs as a team in position to make major acquisitions. What they need to do is move as many of the spare parts as possible, bring in assets like picks and prospects (even if they're not significant picks or significant prospects - I'm not talking about moving significant players, either), and re-assess from there. In all honesty, I look at the lineup you propose after your moves, and I don't see a better team. I see a team that has basically the same level of talent, but less mobility on the blue line and less depth in goal.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Looking at the Leafs lineup, any holes it might have, what the Leafs could probably move without too much pain and what other teams might have that would fill the Leafs holes.

In L.A. Martin Jones has shown himself a capable backup to Quick and when Quick returns from his injury the Kings will have 3 NHL goalies on ready to go: Quick and Jones who are under contract next year for $5.8 MIL and $0.55 MIL respectively as well as Scrivens who is a UFA this summer.

If the Leafs lines are similar to last game and Bolland is added then the result could be:

JVR / Bozak / Kessel
Lupul / Kadri / *Holland
*Kulemin / Bolland / Clarkson
D'Amigo / McClement / Orr

* could switch

With Quick on the verge on returning to the Kings that could allow UFA Mason Raymond to be moved for UFA Ben Scrivens

Reimer could be moved for defensive help which is needed if Scrivens was back with the Leafs.

Ofcourse I would like to see Reimer traded for Gudbranson considering the good job big 6'4" RH dman Alex Petrovic has done while Gudbranson has been out with orbital bone fracture. Also, no offense to UFA Clemmenson but Reimer would be significantly better for Florida especially if Thomas is coming back for another year.  Throw in a RH dman like Granberg, Holzer or Blacker to help Florida balance out their skilled LH dmen Campbell, Kulikov and newly aquired Chicago 1st rounder Olsen.

Gunnarsson / Phaneuf
Gardiner / Gudbranson
Rielly / Franson

Liles needs to be playing and should be sent to a team needing veteran leadership with offensive abilities.

 

[Tigger]

Trying to invent a way to bring in both Stastny and Callahan, it meant not paying Reimer 4 mil and buying out Gleason, still, phun with numbers... forwards improve, defence doesn't and all the eggs go in a Bernier shaped basket...

Gone would be Kulemin, Bozak, Franson, Reimer, Orr, Mclaren, Raymond, Fraser... the back up goalie isn't really a preference, more of a place holder.

FORWARDS

JVR ($4.250m) / Paul Stastny ($7.000m) / Phil Kessel ($8.000m)
Joffrey Lupul ($5.250m) / Nazem Kadri ($2.900m) / Ryan Callahan ($5.750m)
Peter Holland ($0.851m) / Dave Bolland ($4.275m) / David Clarkson ($5.250m)
Jerry D'Amigo ($0.851m) / Jay McClement ($1.700m) / leo komarov ($1.500m)
Tyler Biggs ($0.894m)

DEFENSEMEN

Carl Gunnarsson ($3.150m) / Dion Phaneuf ($7.000m)
Jake Gardiner ($2.000m) / Morgan Rielly ($0.894m)
Clayton Stoner ($1.550m) / Paul Ranger ($1.200m)
Andrew MacWilliam ($0.875m) / T.J. Brennan ($0.660m)

GOALTENDERS

Jonathan Bernier ($2.900m)
Drew MacIntyre ($0.600m)

BUYOUTS
Mike Komisarek ($0.000m)
Mikhail Grabovski ($0.000m)
Tim Gleason ($0.833m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(estimations for 2014-15)
SALARY CAP: $71,100,000; CAP PAYROLL: $70,132,667; BONUSES: $1,275,000
CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $967,333

 

[Highlander]

Hey BBB hard to trade Blacker when we traded him for Holland.

 

[Britishbulldog]

Hey BBB hard to trade Blacker when we traded him for Holland.

I was thinking that but didn't look it up because the Leafs site still has him in the 'system'.

http://mapleleafs.nhl.com/club/roster.htm?type=prospect

http://mapleleafs.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8475203

My concern is still the Leafs defense and I wouldn't at this point be adding any significant pieces to the forward corp until it was addressed.

After watching the last 3 Leaf games, I am concerned about Franson and Orr and think neither should be on the team.  I would send Orr down and add Franson to Reimer as a decent trade piece and keep Gardiner and Bernier.

I suspect that I will be hoping that Gleason is traded or bought out by the summer.

 

[dappleganger]

Anybody interested in a Kadri+Gardiner+1st for Shea Weber swap?

 

[moon111]

Anybody interested in a Kadri+Gardiner+1st for Shea Weber swap?

No dealing 1st round picks unless it's for a better 1st round pick.

 

[maplesyrup]

Anybody interested in a Kadri+Gardiner+1st for Shea Weber swap?

No dealing 1st round picks unless it's for a better 1st round pick.

Hell yeah... But I doubt the Preds would be. 

 

[Britishbulldog]

Anybody interested in a Kadri+Gardiner+1st for Shea Weber swap?

No dealing 1st round picks unless it's for a better 1st round pick.

Ofcourse I would do it as I really like Shea Weber for the Leafs.  Nashville is in a tough spot financially, they were 25th in revenue out of the 30 teams last year, they lost money last year and July 1st they have to cut a cheque to Weber for $13 MIL which is just the 3rd of 6 years of signing bonuses.

Right now Weber wouldn't fit under the cap so the trade would have to be done after the season is over and I feel that Nashville needs scoring wingers so I expect they would be more interested in Lupul or JVR with Gardiner and a 2014 1st.    Kind of 3 dimes for a quarter.

The blockbuster trade I would try is still with Florida for Gudbranson.  I would try something like Reimer and Franson for Gudbranson...and maybe get them to throw in UFA Clemmenson to back Bernier until the end of the year.

 

[losveratos]

Anybody interested in a Kadri+Gardiner+1st for Shea Weber swap?

No dealing 1st round picks unless it's for a better 1st round pick.

Hell yeah... But I doubt the Preds would be.

Yeah, They did turn down 4 1sts already for him.
So you'd think change Gardiner to Rielly and Kadri to JVR.

But then I'm not sure I'd make that trade.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

The blockbuster trade I would try is still with Florida for Gudbranson.  I would try something like Reimer and Franson for Gudbranson...and maybe get them to throw in UFA Clemmenson to back Bernier until the end of the year.

I would pursue this trade, certainly not giving them as much as you have, but Gudbranson is a good target. You would be buying a tad low, as I don't think Gudbranson is where he should be. The question is, do you think Gudbranson will be a star?

Trading for Weber would gut our team of too many young parts to call us a playoff contender I think.

 

[Britishbulldog]

The blockbuster trade I would try is still with Florida for Gudbranson.  I would try something like Reimer and Franson for Gudbranson...and maybe get them to throw in UFA Clemmenson to back Bernier until the end of the year.

I would pursue this trade, certainly not giving them as much as you have, but Gudbranson is a good target. You would be buying a tad low, as I don't think Gudbranson is where he should be. The question is, do you think Gudbranson will be a star?

Trading for Weber would gut our team of too many young parts to call us a playoff contender I think.

Gudbranson hasn't shown his true colours to me yet.  He reminds me of the hype of Luke Schenn and Jared Cowan and Schenn dropped down to a 4th - 5th dman while Cowan still is teasing us.

Worst case Gudbranson becomes Adam McQuaid which is a tough servicable dman.  Best case?  I don't know who to compare him to.

Shea Weber is a different story.  The only reason I ever mention him unlike Crosby, Ovechkin, Stamkos, etc is the brutal financial situation Paul Holgrem put Nashville.  Even so as Losveratos pointed out Nashville turned down the Flyers 4 1st round picks and KEPT the brutal contract so they obviously highly value this franchise dman more than Calgary valued Phaneuf.

With Nashville choosing financial stress of keeping Weber over the 4 1st round assets and financial relief doesn't bode well in Armchair GM land.  I suspect it would hurt any team to muster the assets needed to pry Weber from Nashville and it would have to be top players signed to great contracts like Lupul and not Gleason or Clarkson.

I could see a Nashville trade for Weber easily being Lupul, Kadri, Gardiner and a 1st for Weber.

That would leave the lineup:

JVR / Bozak / Kessel
Kulemin / Holland / Clarkson
D'Amigo / Bolland / Leivo
McLaren / McCement / Orr

Rielly / Weber
Phaneuf / Gudbranson
Gunnarsson / Gleason

Bernier
Clemmenson


Maybe those 3 Leafs could be replaced somehow.  Holland kind of replaces Kadri but doesn't have Kadri's feisty hard hitting side.  Lupul's feistyness and pure skill is hard to replace as well.

The fanstasy trade for me is:
1st Pick 2104, Holland, Gunnarsson, and Connor Brown for Weber.

 

[nutman]

The blockbuster trade I would try is still with Florida for Gudbranson.  I would try something like Reimer and Franson for Gudbranson...and maybe get them to throw in UFA Clemmenson to back Bernier until the end of the year.

I would pursue this trade, certainly not giving them as much as you have, but Gudbranson is a good target. You would be buying a tad low, as I don't think Gudbranson is where he should be. The question is, do you think Gudbranson will be a star?

Trading for Weber would gut our team of too many young parts to call us a playoff contender I think.

Gudbranson hasn't shown his true colours to me yet.  He reminds me of the hype of Luke Schenn and Jared Cowan and Schenn dropped down to a 4th - 5th dman while Cowan still is teasing us.

Worst case Gudbranson becomes Adam McQuaid which is a tough servicable dman.  Best case?  I don't know who to compare him to.

Shea Weber is a different story.  The only reason I ever mention him unlike Crosby, Ovechkin, Stamkos, etc is the brutal financial situation Paul Holgrem put Nashville.  Even so as Losveratos pointed out Nashville turned down the Flyers 4 1st round picks and KEPT the brutal contract so they obviously highly value this franchise dman more than Calgary valued Phaneuf.

With Nashville choosing financial stress of keeping Weber over the 4 1st round assets and financial relief doesn't bode well in Armchair GM land.  I suspect it would hurt any team to muster the assets needed to pry Weber from Nashville and it would have to be top players signed to great contracts like Lupul and not Gleason or Clarkson.

I could see a Nashville trade for Weber easily being Lupul, Kadri, Gardiner and a 1st for Weber.

That would leave the lineup:

JVR / Bozak / Kessel
Kulemin / Holland / Clarkson
D'Amigo / Bolland / Leivo
McLaren / McCement / Orr

Rielly / Weber
Phaneuf / Gudbranson
Gunnarsson / Gleason

Bernier
Clemmenson


Maybe those 3 Leafs could be replaced somehow.  Holland kind of replaces Kadri but doesn't have Kadri's feisty hard hitting side.  Lupul's feistyness and pure skill is hard to replace as well.

The fanstasy trade for me is:
1st Pick 2104, Holland, Gunnarsson, and Connor Brown for Weber.

Are you insane. I wouldn't even think of going there. them four pieces would get you Crosby or ovie.

 

[Bullfrog]

Are you insane. I wouldn't even think of going there. them four pieces would get you Crosby or ovie.

Sarcasm, right? The reality is it's the other way. Those four pieces are not enough for Weber.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Are you insane. I wouldn't even think of going there. them four pieces would get you Crosby or ovie.

Sarcasm, right? The reality is it's the other way. Those four pieces are not enough for Weber.

He must mean Evan Crosby