Unofficial 2013-2014 Armchair GM Thread

[bustaheims]

I absolutely think that they will, I'm just not sure it's a good idea. I'll give Bozak all the credit in the world for his production this season, but I'm skeptical he'll repeat it. It's kind of like Clarkson. I think he deserves full blame and ridicule for how he's played this season, but I also don't think he'll ever be this bad again.

I agree that Bozak likely won't be this good again next season, but, to me, the question is really whether the difference between the production of the top line with Stastny versus the production of the top line with Bozak is worth the difference between what Bozak is earning and the contract Stastny is likely to get, and, quite frankly, I'm not convinced it is. Unless the return on Bozak is really pretty good, I'm not sure these are moves the Leafs should be making.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Am I the only one that is starting to think the Leafs might just stick with the current top line? I mean, Bozak, minus the injury, has had a pretty good season.

I absolutely think that they will, I'm just not sure it's a good idea. I'll give Bozak all the credit in the world for his production this season, but I'm skeptical he'll repeat it. It's kind of like Clarkson. I think he deserves full blame and ridicule for how he's played this season, but I also don't think he'll ever be this bad again.

Let's say they do go after a more "sure thing" at center, call him Statsny, Bozak is too expensive for the third line, so it would probably mean trading Kadri, or worse, playing him on the 3rd line. Has Bozak regressed at all since being here?

I don't really want to see Kadri leave, I think I'd like to see him under a different coach first. Changing the top center would mean major moves in my opinion and I kinda hope they don't do that.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Legit never done one of these Armchair GM things before.  My first attempt at a Bozak-less, Stastny-full Leafs:

I've seen MacIntyre listed as the back-up in a few of these. Really not comfortable with him in a full-time NHL role. Especially considering the injury troubles Bernier has went through in his first full NHL season. I'd rather look at somebody who has established himself as a NHL back-up for the past couple of seasons. Greiss, Montoya, and Peters would be the 3 I'd target, but they likely won't come in at too much more than $900k.

 

[Kin]

I'll give Bozak all the credit in the world for his production this season, but I'm skeptical he'll repeat it.

I don't really think you're giving someone much credit for what they did if you then say they're incapable of replicating it.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Let's say they do go after a more "sure thing" at center, call him Statsny, Bozak is too expensive for the third line, so it would probably mean trading Kadri, or worse, playing him on the 3rd line. Has Bozak regressed at all since being here?

I don't really want to see Kadri leave, I think I'd like to see him under a different coach first. Changing the top center would mean major moves in my opinion and I kinda hope they don't do that.

Well that's where the "trade Bozak while his value is high" thing comes into play. But I think I ran the numbers once and it'd be possible to keep both, at least for another season before Kadri needs a raise. I'd have Bozak centre the checking unit and he'd essentially fill Bolland's role in that case.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Well that's where the "trade Bozak while his value is high" thing comes into play. But I think I ran the numbers once and it'd be possible to keep both, at least for another season before Kadri needs a raise. I'd have Bozak centre the checking unit and he'd essentially fill Bolland's role in that case.

Sorry, my fault, I was speaking with Kadri's next contract in mind, so keeping Bozak on the team and not seeing Holland go to Calgary for a 4th rounder was important, I just didn't get that out right.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Legit never done one of these Armchair GM things before.  My first attempt at a Bozak-less, Stastny-full Leafs:

I've seen MacIntyre listed as the back-up in a few of these. Really not comfortable with him in a full-time NHL role. Especially considering the injury troubles Bernier has went through in his first full NHL season. I'd rather look at somebody who has established himself as a NHL back-up for the past couple of seasons. Greiss, Montoya, and Peters would be the 3 I'd target, but they likely won't come in at too much more than $900k.

Yeah I looked at Peters' stats but wasn't convinced he had really established himself.  But yeah, substitute any of them really.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I don't really think you're giving someone much credit for what they did if you then say they're incapable of replicating it.

What I meant was that I do think he's played better this season than previous ones. I'd expect his level of play to remain at that level, but I don't think he'll repeat his production. And I think there are some pretty big signs that that will be the case (2nd highest shooting percentage in the league, 3rd highest on-ice shooting percentage in the league).

 

[Kin]

What I meant was that I do think he's played better this season than previous ones. I'd expect his level of play to remain at that level, but I don't think he'll repeat his production. And I think there are some pretty big signs that that will be the case (2nd highest shooting percentage in the league, 3rd highest on-ice shooting percentage in the league).

Although if that's true and assuming that other teams are as up on this stuff as has been claimed, the idea that Bozak's value would be significantly higher now than it would be a year later when his shooting percentage inevitably regresses to the mean might not be as true as you'd hope.

 

[AvroArrow]

Trade Bozak while his value is highest, sign Stastny.

In reverse order, though, right?
(ie: sign Stastny first, then move Bozak)

Ha, true.  Or maybe trade Bozak, draft McDavid.

I was thinking the same thing.

 

[bustaheims]

The other question that really needs to be answered in terms of signing Stastny is whether he's the answer at the position long-term or if he's really just the best of what's available right now? To me, he's the latter, and, considering the length and cost of the contract he's likely to sign, he really needs to be the former.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

The other question that really needs to be answered in terms of signing Stastny is whether he's the answer at the position long-term or if he's really just the best of what's available right now? To me, he's the latter, and, considering the length and cost of the contract he's likely to sign, he really needs to be the former.

I'm in that mindset also. But I also haven't seen Bozak plateau yet either, maybe the stats show otherwise, but he seems to have improved his play every year he's been here.

Chemistry is probably the most important thing here, Statsny could very well come in and totally not work with JvR and Kessel. Bozak obviously has that already, for probably a lot less money and term.

 

[Tigger]

The other question that really needs to be answered in terms of signing Stastny is whether he's the answer at the position long-term or if he's really just the best of what's available right now? To me, he's the latter, and, considering the length and cost of the contract he's likely to sign, he really needs to be the former.

Sure, I agree, however if it boils down to concrete availability between him and Bolland? Well....

 

[bustaheims]

Sure, I agree, however if it boils down to concrete availability between him and Bolland? Well....

Then the correct answer is probably "neither."

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

The other question that really needs to be answered in terms of signing Stastny is whether he's the answer at the position long-term or if he's really just the best of what's available right now? To me, he's the latter, and, considering the length and cost of the contract he's likely to sign, he really needs to be the former.

To me, you've got to go for it as much as you can while Kessel's racking up the points and JVR's coming into his prime.  Leafs have already made the commitment to Kessel.  I think as an overall player Stastny is better at both ends of the ice, and to me his offensive stats are more impressive because he hasn't had a linemate of even the calibre of Kessel, let alone Kessel/JVR, in the past 3 seasons.  It's hard to quantify defensive contributions in the NHL, so it's just based off of doing some reading of Colorado forums and generally not thinking Bozak is anything special in the Leafs end.  I also don't think Bozak has shown the ability to be able to drive play like Stastny has, which I think is something you want from a 1st line C, the guy who's going to be going deep into your own end and getting the tough matchups.

But yes, it also depends what he's going to get.

 

[Tigger]

Sure, I agree, however if it boils down to concrete availability between him and Bolland? Well....

Then the correct answer is probably "neither."

Probably. I'd still be interested in Paul given the lack of centre talent available, though I highly doubt he'll be available.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Sure, I agree, however if it boils down to concrete availability between him and Bolland? Well....

Then the correct answer is probably "neither."

Probably. I'd still be interested in Paul given the lack of centre talent available, though I highly doubt he'll be available.

But you'd think that one of those good centers will be leaving Colorado. Is there enough room for 4 very good ones?

 

[bustaheims]

But you'd think that one of those good centers will be leaving Colorado. Is there enough room for 4 very good ones?

I think what's likely to happen with Stastny is either Colorado trades his rights or possibly a sign-and-trade. I don't think he'll actually hit the open market.

 

[Tigger]

Sure, I agree, however if it boils down to concrete availability between him and Bolland? Well....

Then the correct answer is probably "neither."

Probably. I'd still be interested in Paul given the lack of centre talent available, though I highly doubt he'll be available.

But you'd think that one of those good centers will be leaving Colorado. Is there enough room for 4 very good ones?

They have more than enough cap space and Stastny has said he'd like to stay. One of them is playing wing at a pretty high level ( O'Reilly ) and might be the one to go of the 4 ( I'm assuming along with Duchene and Mac ) if they have another negotiation clash but I doubt any of them leave.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

But you'd think that one of those good centers will be leaving Colorado. Is there enough room for 4 very good ones?

I think what's likely to happen with Stastny is either Colorado trades his rights or possibly a sign-and-trade. I don't think he'll actually hit the open market.

Yeah, maybe. I always thought it would be O'Rielly, but as Tigger points out, he's been playing the wing.

If I had to guess, it would be Statsny leaving on pure financial management terms, with McKinnon looking like a hit. It was just hearing all the trade rumours with O'Rielly that had me thinking it was him leaving.