2011 Blue Jays/MLB Thread

[Kin]

Ignore that, working with bad salary data. 

 

[bustaheims]

Didn't we have Hill for 2 more years? I was operationg on that assumption. If not, well, then that changes my opinion.

THe Jays had options on Hill for 2 more seasons, but, with the way he's been declining both at the plate and in the field, there was no way they would have been picked up. On top of that, Johnson is a better bet to decline arbitration than Hill right now - he's having a poor season after a breakout season, whereas Hill is coming to the end of his 2nd straight subpar season, to the point where Hill is producing less than a replacement level player would - and Johnson has better odds of getting signed to a MLB deal in the winter, meaning he give the Jays better odds at compensation picks (both ranked as Type B guys - Johnson was in fact just beneath being a Type A) in their respective leagues pre-trade, not sure where they end up afterwards.

 

[Kin]

THe Jays had options on Hill for 2 more seasons, but, with the way he's been declining both at the plate and in the field, there was no way they would have been picked up. On top of that, Johnson is a better bet to decline arbitration than Hill right now - he's having a poor season after a breakout season, whereas Hill is coming to the end of his 2nd straight subpar season, to the point where Hill is producing less than a replacement level player would

And, I mean, both guys will be on the market in the winter assuming Arizona also declines Hill's options. So, realistically, this trade has almost no bearing on whether or not Aaron Hill will play for the Blue Jays next year.

 

[maplesyrup]

So why throw MacDonald in then?

 

[bustaheims]

So why throw MacDonald in then?

Because Johnson has more value than Hill.

 

[maplesyrup]

So why throw MacDonald in then?

Because Johnson has more value than Hill.

To who though?... if neither guy was going to play for either team next year, the point of all of this is???.... Unless Hill is projected to be a type "B" and Johnson an "A."

 

[Kin]

So why throw MacDonald in then?

It saves the Jays a couple hundred thousand bucks and there's an increased likelihood of getting a pick out of Johnson than there is Hill.

 

[bustaheims]

To who though?... if neither guy was going to play for either team next year, the point of all of this is???.... Unless Hill is projected to be a type "B" and Johnson an "A."

THey're both Bs, but, Hill was a borderline B in the AL and quite easily would have been unranked by the end of the season with the way he's been hitting, whereas Johnson was a borderline A in the NL and likely remains a solid B in the AL for the rest of the year.

 

[Derk]

Morrow with another rough start - down 3-0 after 4 having already thrown 79 pitches. Jays bats looking again like they are having a tough time - 1 hit through 4. 

 

[maplesyrup]

The deal was just explained to me this way... Either Johnson signs long term or we get him for one year through arbitration. If he rejects arbitration, the Jays land a sandwich pick. The feeling is that McDonald is close to a lock to re-sign with us in the off-season so, given all that, I suppose it's a decent deal. If not for the nervous Nelly in me telling me that it isn't a good idea to to enter the off-season with zero certainty for at least one MLB ready second baseman, my feeling would be that it's actually a pretty good trade.

 

[Kin]

If not for the nervous Nelly in me telling me that it isn't a good idea to to enter the off-season with zero certainty for at least one MLB ready second baseman, my feeling would be that it's actually a pretty good trade.

Unless you're actually suggesting the Jays should have picked up Hill's option for 8 million just so they'd have a second baseman on the roster that would have been the case either way.

 

[sucka]

The deal was just explained to me this way... Either Johnson signs long term or we get him for one year through arbitration. If he rejects arbitration, the Jays land a sandwich pick. The feeling is that McDonald is close to a lock to re-sign with us in the off-season so, given all that, I suppose it's a decent deal. If not for the nervous Nelly in me telling me that it isn't a good idea to to enter the off-season with zero certainty for at least one MLB ready second baseman, my feeling would be that it's actually a pretty good trade.

Even better...maybe their was an 'understanding' for Hill to sign back with the jays and Johnson to sign back with the Dbacks...then both teams get the extra picks

 

[maplesyrup]

The deal was just explained to me this way... Either Johnson signs long term or we get him for one year through arbitration. If he rejects arbitration, the Jays land a sandwich pick. The feeling is that McDonald is close to a lock to re-sign with us in the off-season so, given all that, I suppose it's a decent deal. If not for the nervous Nelly in me telling me that it isn't a good idea to to enter the off-season with zero certainty for at least one MLB ready second baseman, my feeling would be that it's actually a pretty good trade.

Even better...maybe their was an 'understanding' for Hill to sign back with the jays and Johnson to sign back with the Dbacks...then both teams get the extra picks

I think we've seen the last of Hill... hopefully.

Interesting... I didn't realize how much of a better hitter Johnson was than Hill;

Hill: 396 AB, 124 TB. Johnson: 430 AB, 177 TB... That's a pretty signifigant gap in total bases. To put that in perspective, Escobar (who has had a fairly decent year at the plate) has 190 TB in 448 AB. - Johnson isn't that far off. Depending on what he does for the rest of the year, Johnson might in fact be a nice addition going forward should both parties be willing.   

 

[maplesyrup]

Speaking of total bases, which is the better measure of offensive prowess in baseball? OPS ot TB? Everyone is gaga over OPS (as perhaps they should be) but nobody ever talks TBs. Don't TB's speak as loudly to a player's ability at the plate as OPS does? 

 

[bustaheims]

Speaking of total bases, which is the better measure of offensive prowess in baseball? OPS ot TB? Everyone is gaga over OPS (as perhaps they should be) but nobody ever talks TBs. Don't TB's speak as loudly to a player's ability at the plate as OPS does?

TB is taken into account as part of OPS. Slugging % is TB divided by AB, and, OPS is Slg% + OBP, so . . .

 

[maplesyrup]

Speaking of total bases, which is the better measure of offensive prowess in baseball? OPS ot TB? Everyone is gaga over OPS (as perhaps they should be) but nobody ever talks TBs. Don't TB's speak as loudly to a player's ability at the plate as OPS does?

TB is taken into account as part of OPS. Slugging % is TB divided by AB, and, OPS is Slg% + OBP, so . . .

Ah, right. Sorry. OPS pretty much covers it all, doesn't it?

 

[bustaheims]

Ah, right. Sorry. OPS pretty much covers it all, doesn't it?

Pretty much. The only things it doesn't really take into account are runs, RBIs and SB, though, you can get a feel for how good a player will be at the first two from it.

 

[Kin]

Ah, right. Sorry. OPS pretty much covers it all, doesn't it?

It does, but it has it's flaws. It doesn't adjust for park factors or league conditions and a lot of people think that it over-emphasizes SLG% when OBP is a more important component.

 

[hockeyfan1]

The last time the Jays had a Kelly, his last name was Gruber, and they won their first World Series.

Maybe if they keep this Kelly (Johnson), might bring them some luck!  ;D

 

[hockeyfan1]

Speaking of total bases, which is the better measure of offensive prowess in baseball? OPS ot TB? Everyone is gaga over OPS (as perhaps they should be) but nobody ever talks TBs. Don't TB's speak as loudly to a player's ability at the plate as OPS does?

TB is taken into account as part of OPS. Slugging % is TB divided by AB, and, OPS is Slg% + OBP, so . . .

Some critics feel that the OPS is not a great formula for measuring performance. They feel that the on base percentage is nearer to the mark than the combination of on base percentage and slugging percentage.

Criticism stems from the fact that slugging percentage and on base percentage are given equal status in OPS. However, on base percentage tends to more accurately indicate the likelihood that a player will actually make it to the home plate and score a run. In fact on base percentage tends to be about a 10-25% lower than OPS.

Babe Ruth has the highest career OPS at 1.1636. He is followed by Ted Williams and Lou Gehrig.
Barry Bonds stands fourth in the rankings for career OPS with a 1.0533 measurement.

http://www.wisegeek.com/in-baseball-what-is-ops.htm