2012 Toronto Blue Jays Thread

[maplesyrup]

OTOH, fine... Let's get that ace... But we're still going to need another quality starter.

Sure, but it'll be a back of the rotation guy, and they're much easier to find and much cheaper to acquire - and they could already be in the organization.

Like I said in my last post, there may be one but I doubt there's two.

 

[Kin]

But why aren't you using the same logic on Arencibia as you have on Rasmus?  Isn't Gose, in fact, a more known entity that D'Arnaud?

Well, no. Yes, we know more offensively about Gose but what we know about Gose and his ability to hit major league pitching isn't good. Rasmus, even having a not so great year, still has an OPS around 100 points higher than Gose. So by sticking with Rasmus you're favouring the better offensive option and a guy who's had a very good defensive year.

Conversely, we don't know what D'Arnaud could do offensively. We do know that, unlike Gose, D'Arnaud crushed minor league pitching and is regarded as an upgrade over Arencibia defensively.

1. TBD (2 B/LF)
2. Hecheverria (SS)
3. Lawrie (3B)
4. Bautista (RF)
5. Encarnacion (1B/DH)
6. Arencibia (1B/DH)
7. Rasmus (CF)
8. D'arnaud (C)
9. TBD (2 B/LF)

Well, leaving aside the fact that there's just a massive OBP hole at the top of the order there the problem with that is that Arencibia's bat has proven to be just a little bit better than replacement level at Catcher the last two seasons(oWAR's of 1.5 and 1.2 respectively). Give him at-bats at DH/1B and he's probably no better than a replacement level hitter.

 

[Kin]

Sure, but it'll be a back of the rotation guy, and they're much easier to find and much cheaper to acquire - and they could already be in the organization.

If nothing else, they're much easier to acquire in free agency.

 

[maplesyrup]

Overall, I tend to agree with Sarge that pitching will be the team's priority.  I'm sceptical that AA will bring in much positional talent.  I'd love to think about adding David Ortiz into the lineup, but my glass-half-empty perscpective is killing my creativity.

Yeah, I just don't think AA should even look at the order without fixing the rotation first.

 

[bustaheims]

I don't know though. Having both a #4 or #5 who has no business starting at the major league level probably hurts us more I would think. Like I said earlier, if you're hell bent for that ace, fine... but we're still going to have to go out and get a guy who can start at or near the bottom of the rotation because I sincerely doubt there's two guys in the system right now that can do it.

The bolded part is quite the leap from what I was saying. I'd wager that there are at least 2 guys in the system right now that are capable of being quality back of the rotation starters for a big league team. Between Happ, Laffey, Jenkins, Alvarez, some of the older prospects who should be close to making the jump, and guys like Drabek and Hutchison (both of which could potentially be back by spring training - though, that's probably best case scenario for both, mid season is more likely), I don't have much doubt the team could find 2 more than acceptable 4/5 types - and, if not, free agency is filled with decent to good back of the rotation guys and a couple middle of the rotation guys. Filling back of the rotation holes is pretty easy when the rest of the spots in the rotation are filled properly.

 

[bustaheims]

If nothing else, they're much easier to acquire in free agency.

Yeah. I'd say close to 80% (if not more) of the free agent starters out there are 4/5 types on successful teams.

 

[Kin]

The bolded part is quite the leap from what I was saying. I'd wager that there are at least 2 guys in the system right now that are capable of being quality back of the rotation starters for a big league team. Between Happ, Laffey, Jenkins, Alvarez, some of the older prospects who should be close to making the jump, and guys like Drabek and Hutchison

Or, even if you're wrong and none of those guys are capable, guys like Drabek, Alavarez and Hutchison should at least be given the shots at those spots next year. I mean, sure, none of them had great years but they're 24, 22 and 21. Filling out the back end of the rotation might be a concern at some point down the road but for now, assuming there's still some patience with some pretty talented pitchers, I don't see that the team should be depleting the farm system to address that right now.

 

[maplesyrup]

I don't know though. Having both a #4 or #5 who has no business starting at the major league level probably hurts us more I would think. Like I said earlier, if you're hell bent for that ace, fine... but we're still going to have to go out and get a guy who can start at or near the bottom of the rotation because I sincerely doubt there's two guys in the system right now that can do it.

The bolded part is quite the leap from what I was saying. I'd wager that there are at least 2 guys in the system right now that are capable of being quality back of the rotation starters for a big league team. Between Happ, Laffey, Jenkins, Alvarez, some of the older prospects who should be close to making the jump, and guys like Drabek and Hutchison (both of which could potentially be back by spring training - though, that's probably best case scenario for both, mid season is more likely), I don't have much doubt the team could find 2 more than acceptable 4/5 types - and, if not, free agency is filled with decent to good back of the rotation guys and a couple middle of the rotation guys. Filling back of the rotation holes is pretty easy when the rest of the spots in the rotation are filled properly.

Nope. Not happening. Wilner said last night that one isn't going to be ready until late July/early August and the other probably won't be ready until months later. Even then, he said it'll be probably months after that until they're back to "normal." Of the other guys you mention, sure maybe one of them can fill a 4/5 spot but I don't know how you can hope that two do  :-\

 

[Deebo]

Drabek and Hutchison (both of which could potentially be back by spring training - though, that's probably best case scenario for both, mid season is more likely)

Just to adress this specifically, I was under the impression that tommy john surgery usually had an 18 month recovery period, which would rule them both for the entire season next year.

I thought those 2 would be back for 2014 spring training.

 

[Champ Kind]

Well, leaving aside the fact that there's just a massive OBP hole at the top of the order there the problem with that is that Arencibia's bat has proven to be just a little bit better than replacement level at Catcher the last two seasons(oWAR's of 1.5 and 1.2 respectively). Give him at-bats at DH/1B and he's probably no better than a replacement level hitter.

I have to plead naivete - well, maybe ignorance - with advanced baseball statistics, but I just don't really feel comfortable with the wins above replacement stat.  While JP may have a relatively low WAR, it was an injury marred year for him and, with again apologies to the advanced statistics, experience tells me that 25 HR, 80 RBI catchers (albeit ones who rarely walk and hit in the .220s) are ones you want to hold on to.  Add in the intangibles - at least as I perceive them, could be wrong - and I don't entertain the thoguht of moving him at this point.

I also think it's a stretch to suggest D'Arnaud's minor league numbers will translate at the major league level.  The Jays had another catcher in the minor leagues recently who destroyed AAA pitching and who hasmn't exactly enjoyed the same productivity in the majors: JP Arencibia.

I'm high on Gose and I think he is showing improvement.  Is he 'there' yet?  No way.  But I feel more optimistic about him because he has made adjustments that have improved his result (caveat: WAY more work required).

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

The 2012 off-season is starting to look eerily similar to the 2011 off-season, which doesn't bode well, methinks.

How can the 2012 off-season start to resemble anything when it hasn't even begun yet?

 

[Kin]

I have to plead naivete - well, maybe ignorance - with advanced baseball statistics, but I just don't really feel comfortable with the wins above replacement stat.  While JP may have a relatively low WAR, it was an injury marred year for him and, with again apologies to the advanced statistics, experience tells me that 25 HR, 80 RBI catchers (albeit ones who rarely walk and hit in the .220s) are ones you want to hold on to.  Add in the intangibles - at least as I perceive them, could be wrong - and I don't entertain the thoguht of moving him at this point.

Well, let's leave aside the metric gap for a second and just deal with some common sense stuff. I'm not saying Arencibia is terrible and valueless. One of the reasons I think he is someone the team should look into dealing is precisely because he has value at catcher and that, in D'Arnaud, they have a good replacement who's major league ready by most accounts.

Right? I mean, if the Jays are going to make deals to address their pitching problem which is far more serious than what they need to do with their offense, they're going to have to trade pieces that have value. I'd rather they deal a guy like Arencibia than mine the farm system.

I also think it's a stretch to suggest D'Arnaud's minor league numbers will translate at the major league level.  The Jays had another catcher in the minor leagues recently who destroyed AAA pitching and who hasmn't exactly enjoyed the same productivity in the majors: JP Arencibia.

Well, again, I'm not saying D'Arnaud is definitely going to come up and destroy things. Just that he's a guy who deserves that chance.

And I think it's important to note that while JP destroyed things at Vegas, the reality is that everyone and their mother looks like a superstar in Vegas. JP didn't have a very good OBP through the minors(.319). D'Arnaud on the other hand not only has a good track record of getting on base in the minors(.343) but he looked just as good in New Hampshire, a far tougher hitter's environment, putting up a slash line of .311/.371/.542. JP, also as a 22 year old catcher in New Hampshire, had a line of .282/.302/.496

 

[Kin]

The 2012 off-season is starting to look eerily similar to the 2011 off-season, which doesn't bode well, methinks.

How can the 2012 off-season start to resemble anything when it hasn't even begun yet?

In terms of the players available as UFA's? Both years had pretty weak crops.

 

[bustaheims]

Just to adress this specifically, I was under the impression that tommy john surgery usually had an 18 month recovery period, which would rule them both for the entire season next year.

I thought those 2 would be back for 2014 spring training.

Guys have come back from it in 8 months in the past - especially younger guys. It's unusual, but not impossible. Average recovery seems to be in the 10-14 month range. The 18 month number is sort of an older guideline from before the procedure became as common as it is now and before they refined the process. They'll both be pitching somewhere in the system next season.

 

[bustaheims]

Nope. Not happening. Wilner said last night that one isn't going to be ready until late July/early August and the other probably won't be ready until months later. Even then, he said it'll be probably months after that until they're back to "normal."

You really have to take what anyone says about these guys right now with a grain of salt, because no one can really say for sure where they'll be in their recovery in February/March. A lot can happen in those 4/5 months.

Of the other guys you mention, sure maybe one of them can fill a 4/5 spot but I don't know how you can hope that two do  :-\

Well, we already know that Happ is capable of being a back of the rotation starter at the big league level. He's done so for a number of seasons now, and, in fact, looked like he might be capable of more (though, only for the one season). So, the team really only needs one other guy to step up. And, really, considering there are probably a dozen potential candidates in house already, there's a good chance that guy is already there.

 

[Champ Kind]

The 2012 off-season is starting to look eerily similar to the 2011 off-season, which doesn't bode well, methinks.

How can the 2012 off-season start to resemble anything when it hasn't even begun yet?

Primarily because the message appeears to be "wait until next year" again.  As Sarge mentioned earlier, the cost of acquiring pitching will be steep.  Free agents will be expensive.  The Jays' minor leagues (and major league team) are full of good, young, relatively unproven talent.  Adam Lind is a question mark.  Jose Bautista is one year older.  To me, this appears eerily familiar to what we heard going into the 2011 off-season.

 

[#1PilarFan]

Well, again, I'm not saying D'Arnaud is definitely going to come up and destroy things. Just that he's a guy who deserves that chance.

And I think it's important to note that while JP destroyed things at Vegas, the reality is that everyone and their mother looks like a superstar in Vegas. JP didn't have a very good OBP through the minors(.319). D'Arnaud on the other hand not only has a good track record of getting on base in the minors(.343) but he looked just as good in New Hampshire, a far tougher hitter's environment, putting up a slash line of .311/.371/.542. JP, also as a 22 year old catcher in New Hampshire, had a line of .282/.302/.496

There's no question that D'Arnaud projects to be a better hitter than JPA, but there's no real need to deal Arencibia before seeing if D'Arnaud is ready for MLB pitching. At this point, JPA is more like insurance for the Jays. Like you said, he's not a terrible offensive catcher and he doesn't make much. Keep him for the start of 2013, and see what D'Arnaud can do. He's still young and may need a little more seasoning.

As for pitching, AA has said he intends to acquire two pitchers to support Morrow and Romero - without going so far as to label anyone as "1" or "2". This will push all the pitchers down in the system, giving the Jays both depth in case of injuries and time to work on the younger guys a little more.

 

[Kin]

There's no question that D'Arnaud projects to be a better hitter than JPA, but there's no real need to deal Arencibia before seeing if D'Arnaud is ready for MLB pitching. At this point, JPA is more like insurance for the Jays. Like you said, he's not a terrible offensive catcher and he doesn't make much. Keep him for the start of 2013, and see what D'Arnaud can do. He's still young and may need a little more seasoning.

Well, but again, the point of trying to deal Arencibia is precisely because he does have value. I mean, like you say, if AA is serious about trying to acquire two pitchers he's got to give something to get them. So the "need" to deal him isn't about him being terrible and needing to be replaced just the "need" to address other areas of the club.

 

[Champ Kind]

Right? I mean, if the Jays are going to make deals to address their pitching problem which is far more serious than what they need to do with their offense, they're going to have to trade pieces that have value. I'd rather they deal a guy like Arencibia than mine the farm system.


Well, again, I'm not saying D'Arnaud is definitely going to come up and destroy things. Just that he's a guy who deserves that chance.

And I think it's important to note that while JP destroyed things at Vegas, the reality is that everyone and their mother looks like a superstar in Vegas. JP didn't have a very good OBP through the minors(.319). D'Arnaud on the other hand not only has a good track record of getting on base in the minors(.343) but he looked just as good in New Hampshire, a far tougher hitter's environment, putting up a slash line of .311/.371/.542. JP, also as a 22 year old catcher in New Hampshire, had a line of .282/.302/.496

I can't argue with you there, Nik.  JP may be the most valuable roster player that the organization could consider trading.  After all, talent will likely be acquired through trades rather than free agency, so you're absolutely right.  I suppose I'm coming at this from a normative perspective and less from a practical one.  I just think that JP would make a pretty good - and affordable - (poor man's?) Victor Martinez by being able to give time at DH, 1B. and catcher while supplying some decent power in the late middle of the order.

I understand AAA Vegas tends to inflate hitters statistics, but that was a massive MVP season he enjoyed a few years back.  The prospect of going with D'Arnaud and only Mathis as a backup is not appealing.  Having JP around as D'Arnaud acclimates would be the approach I would take.

 

[#1PilarFan]

Primarily because the message appeears to be "wait until next year" again.  As Sarge mentioned earlier, the cost of acquiring pitching will be steep.  Free agents will be expensive.  The Jays' minor leagues (and major league team) are full of good, young, relatively unproven talent.  Adam Lind is a question mark.  Jose Bautista is one year older.  To me, this appears eerily familiar to what we heard going into the 2011 off-season.

That's not the impression that I got from AA or Beeston. As I mentioned earlier, AA said he intends to add to the rotation and Beeston believes this team is ready to make big moves to push this team over the top.

Offensively, I don't think the Jays will have too much to be concerned about. With Bautista and Encarnacion, the Jays have two very good power hitters. I expect Encarnacion to take a couple steps back from this year, but his decline should be offset by a healthy Bautista.

This year, the Jays are more or less a middle of the pack offensive team, and that's with injuries, an underperforming Brett Lawrie, and some truly heinous numbers posted by guys who I think can and should do better, Rasmus being the primary offender. They will likely be a better team offensively net year even if they fail to make any acquisitions.