2014-15 Prospects Thread

[Kin]

I wonder if "defensive talent" as observed by scouts in the minor leagues is something that translates to anything in the NHL.  In other words, is it the case that players observed to be "good defensive players" in the minor leagues turn in to "good defensive players" at the NHL level?  Or is being good defensively at the NHL level independent of what kind of a defensive player you were in junior?  It wouldn't surprise me at all if the latter were true. 

Were guys like Datsyuk, Chara, Bergeron, Toews known as top defenders when they were juniors or were they just the best players all over the ice (something that would be reflected in their offensive stats).

I wonder if scouts should completely dispense with evaluating defensive talent and teams should stop drafting based on "defensive talent" and just take the guys with the top offensive talent/stick skills/skating/etc.

For what it's worth a quick scan of some of the players who have been recognized as top defensive players tends to show that they don't have particularly great junior scoring numbers.

I think what you probably see is that most guys who have the attributes needed to be good defensive players in the NHL will see those attributes translate to some extent to offensive play at lower levels and, being as offense will always be valued over defense, will probably be used in less of a defensive role in junior and, as a result, they won't be the first guys considered for a best defensive forward award.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Speaking of Gauthier, he's been nominated for best defensive forward in the QMJHL despite only playing in 37 games.

I'm not saying that's a bad thing or anything but I was surprised that the winners of the award over the last 10 years have had little to no (almost overwhelmingly no) nhl success.

Anyone have names before 2005 that have won the carbonneau award and gone onto significant nhl careers?

No idea, but even the Michel-Bri?re Trophy for MVP of the league has more misses than NHL stars on it.

I think it's pretty meaningless in any event, but figured it was relevant to this thread that he was nominated.

Better than NOT being nominated, right?....

I wonder if "defensive talent" as observed by scouts in the minor leagues is something that translates to anything in the NHL.  In other words, is it the case that players observed to be "good defensive players" in the minor leagues turn in to "good defensive players" at the NHL level?  Or is being good defensively at the NHL level independent of what kind of a defensive player you were in junior?  It wouldn't surprise me at all if the latter were true. 

Were guys like Datsyuk, Chara, Bergeron, Toews known as top defenders when they were juniors or were they just the best players all over the ice (something that would be reflected in their offensive stats).

I wonder if scouts should completely dispense with evaluating defensive talent and teams should stop drafting based on "defensive talent" and just take the guys with the top offensive talent/stick skills/skating/etc.

With Gauthier I don't think it's so much that he was good defensively but that scouts thought he was SO good defensively at his age:

Chris Bordeleau of NHL Central Scouting has tracked the progress of countless players in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League pipeline over the past three decades.

Still, he struggles when asked to recall a forward matching the defensive acumen and awareness exhibited by 2013 draft-eligible center Frederik Gauthier of the Rimouski Oceanic.

The closest resemblance might be Philadelphia Flyers center Sean Couturier, who starred for the Drummondville Voltigeurs for three seasons. But even that's a stretch.

"I've never seen a kid get back and play defense like he does in 20 years," Bordeleau told NHL.com. "In his own end, he's always around the puck. A kid that can play defense like he does at his age, with that kind of maturity, is very rare."

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=670537

It seems like if you're comparing him to players drafted for defensive ability predominantly, he stands out from that pack.

 

[Highlander]

Looks like a lot of signings for the Marlies for the coming year, two more today:
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-marlies/2015/3/27/8302567/marlies-sign-foster-to-two-year-ahl-contract and some guy named Jack Rodewald. In addition to the Russian and Casey at the Bat, we are looking at at least 4 Marlies with the big team next year. Whats that say?

 

[bustaheims]

In addition to the Russian and Casey at the Bat, we are looking at at least 4 Marlies with the big team next year. Whats that say?

I'm not sure where you're getting that conclusion from. It's more likely that it means a number of the current Marlies won't be in the organization at all next season. In fact, that's almost a certainty.

 

[Highlander]

True that but I don't think Hunter and Dubois are finished yet, in fact I think they are just beginning.

 

[cw]

https://twitter.com/scottcwheeler/status/581860394559508480

 

[Tanaer]

I know it is likely a depth signing at this point, but Rodewald but could be a good signing going forward.  He is a power forward type that Moose Jaw got from Regina, where he was being used as 3rd/4th line guy.  Moose Jaw moved him to the top line with Brayden Point and the guy took off.  He has been used in all situations by the Warriors and worked his butt off every shift of every game.  He had 85 points, including 35 goals, this year and carried the Warriors while Point was with the World Juniors.  He was a solid leader for the team and was a crowd favorite.  He won the team's awards for Humanitarian of the Year and the True Warrior Award for personifying team spirit on and off the ice.  I thought I would give a sort of synopsis for you as you wouldn't know him much.  Having watched him play the past two years, I'm kind of excited about his signing with the Marlies.  I had hoped that the Leaf scout could look at him as a potential player.  Was pumped to see him sign.  He has gotten better by big amounts in each of the past two years.  I'm pulling for him!

 

[L K]

McKegg puts the Marlies up 1-0 on Hsmilton.  The Malies have a few games in hand on 7th and 8th place now.  The playoffs are looking bright and should only get better.

 

[Highlander]

Hi Tanaer to the site, I really enjoyed your post, keep bringing it bro.
I agree that the guys the Leafs are signing all seem to have potential, the Ruskie seems to have a huge upside and they signed Foster yesterday whom also seems to have an upside.  Not to mention Casey at the Bat.  Man if we could translate these four into 1 top 6 and perhaps a 3rd liner.
The main thing is to fill the cupboard with as many high quality "wallet free" prospects and let them develop.

 

[Frank E]

Just checking on the rankings...so tell me again what's wrong with Lawson Crouse?

This is where Elite Prospects has his ranking:

Ranked #8 by Hockeyprospect.com
Ranked #3 by ISS Hockey
Ranked #6 by Future Considerations
Ranked #6 by McKeen's Hockey
Ranked #4 by NHL Central Scouting (NA Skaters)

He's already 6'4 212lbs (Elite Prospects)...maybe he's just getting used to his size, and the points will come?

 

[Kin]

Just checking on the rankings...so tell me again what's wrong with Lawson Crouse?

This is where Elite Prospects has his ranking:

Ranked #8 by Hockeyprospect.com
Ranked #3 by ISS Hockey
Ranked #6 by Future Considerations
Ranked #6 by McKeen's Hockey
Ranked #4 by NHL Central Scouting (NA Skaters)

He's already 6'4 212lbs (Elite Prospects)...maybe he's just getting used to his size, and the points will come?

I think the argument would be that typically that doesn't happen and that if someone has the tools to score in the NHL they will almost universally manifest themselves in Junior to a greater extent.

It might have been interesting to see what numbers Crouse would have put up if Bennett were healthy this year but the idea that players will develop a scoring touch as a professional has very, very questionable precedent.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Just checking on the rankings...so tell me again what's wrong with Lawson Crouse?

This is where Elite Prospects has his ranking:

Ranked #8 by Hockeyprospect.com
Ranked #3 by ISS Hockey
Ranked #6 by Future Considerations
Ranked #6 by McKeen's Hockey
Ranked #4 by NHL Central Scouting (NA Skaters)

He's already 6'4 212lbs (Elite Prospects)...maybe he's just getting used to his size, and the points will come?

Slightly more offensive and more physical Frederick Gauthier, worse defensively, but not a pivot. I read a comparison of him and other highly touted prospects that produced at the same clip in Jnr, I think just about every one underwhelmed at the Pro level.

If you read historical analysis of the draft, it's apparent that the most overvalued metric in the draft is size. Most scouts are seduced by the old school mentality that if they have the size the rest of the game will develop.

It's actually a better risk to take a smaller guy who already has most of the skills, perhaps they need to be polished still and he can potentially grow a few more inches.

 

[cw]

Just checking on the rankings...so tell me again what's wrong with Lawson Crouse?

This is where Elite Prospects has his ranking:

Ranked #8 by Hockeyprospect.com
Ranked #3 by ISS Hockey
Ranked #6 by Future Considerations
Ranked #6 by McKeen's Hockey
Ranked #4 by NHL Central Scouting (NA Skaters)

He's already 6'4 212lbs (Elite Prospects)...maybe he's just getting used to his size, and the points will come?

Slightly more offensive and more physical Frederick Gauthier, worse defensively, but not a pivot. I read a comparison of him and other highly touted prospects that produced at the same clip in Jnr, I think just about every one underwhelmed at the Pro level.

If you read historical analysis of the draft, it's apparent that the most overvalued metric in the draft is size. Most scouts are seduced by the old school mentality that if they have the size the rest of the game will develop.

It's actually a better risk to take a smaller guy who already has most of the skills, perhaps they need to be polished still and he can potentially grow a few more inches.

Agree.

He was under a ppg in the CHL. It's not a rule without exception because there have been a few exceptions over the years but usually, if one cannot put up a ppg in the CHL, they cannot put up top 6 points in the NHL.

Rankings I saw had him between 3rd and 12th. From the comfort of my couch, his probable top side is as a 3rd liner - but he may be a "safer pick" - more likely to get there (though that's really a guess because I haven't seen much of him).

Because of that, I'd be inclined the beat the bushes for more top end skill that might be riskier. The Leafs can afford to buy Winniks and Santorellis economically at no talent cost.

 

[Frank E]

Just checking on the rankings...so tell me again what's wrong with Lawson Crouse?

This is where Elite Prospects has his ranking:

Ranked #8 by Hockeyprospect.com
Ranked #3 by ISS Hockey
Ranked #6 by Future Considerations
Ranked #6 by McKeen's Hockey
Ranked #4 by NHL Central Scouting (NA Skaters)

He's already 6'4 212lbs (Elite Prospects)...maybe he's just getting used to his size, and the points will come?

Slightly more offensive and more physical Frederick Gauthier, worse defensively, but not a pivot. I read a comparison of him and other highly touted prospects that produced at the same clip in Jnr, I think just about every one underwhelmed at the Pro level.

If you read historical analysis of the draft, it's apparent that the most overvalued metric in the draft is size. Most scouts are seduced by the old school mentality that if they have the size the rest of the game will develop.

It's actually a better risk to take a smaller guy who already has most of the skills, perhaps they need to be polished still and he can potentially grow a few more inches.

Agree.

He was under a ppg in the CHL. It's not a rule without exception because there have been a few exceptions over the years but usually, if one cannot put up a ppg in the CHL, they cannot put up top 6 points in the NHL.

Rankings I saw had him between 3rd and 12th. From the comfort of my couch, his probable top side is as a 3rd liner - but he may be a "safer pick" - more likely to get there (though that's really a guess because I haven't seen much of him).

Because of that, I'd be inclined the beat the bushes for more top end skill that might be riskier. The Leafs can afford buy Winniks and Santorellis economically.

Getzlaf had 29g 39a = 68pts in 70 games in his draft year when he was picked 19th overall. *Cherry picked player

Crouse has doubled his output of last year, and is close to a point a game. 

I just think an argument could be made that he's growing into a big body, and that also takes a little time.  He scored damn near a goal a game in AAA a couple of seasons ago, so maybe there's something there.

And just to be clear, I'm not suggesting the Leafs take him at 4 or 5.  I'm just curious as to why people around here haven't been a fan of his, given that he's pretty highly ranked.  I get your arguments, and I really don't feel strongly about it, but man, 6'4 and 212 at 18 years old...and with hands?

 

[L K]

Just checking on the rankings...so tell me again what's wrong with Lawson Crouse?

This is where Elite Prospects has his ranking:

Ranked #8 by Hockeyprospect.com
Ranked #3 by ISS Hockey
Ranked #6 by Future Considerations
Ranked #6 by McKeen's Hockey
Ranked #4 by NHL Central Scouting (NA Skaters)

He's already 6'4 212lbs (Elite Prospects)...maybe he's just getting used to his size, and the points will come?

Slightly more offensive and more physical Frederick Gauthier, worse defensively, but not a pivot. I read a comparison of him and other highly touted prospects that produced at the same clip in Jnr, I think just about every one underwhelmed at the Pro level.

If you read historical analysis of the draft, it's apparent that the most overvalued metric in the draft is size. Most scouts are seduced by the old school mentality that if they have the size the rest of the game will develop.

It's actually a better risk to take a smaller guy who already has most of the skills, perhaps they need to be polished still and he can potentially grow a few more inches.

Agree.

He was under a ppg in the CHL. It's not a rule without exception because there have been a few exceptions over the years but usually, if one cannot put up a ppg in the CHL, they cannot put up top 6 points in the NHL.

Rankings I saw had him between 3rd and 12th. From the comfort of my couch, his probable top side is as a 3rd liner - but he may be a "safer pick" - more likely to get there (though that's really a guess because I haven't seen much of him).

Because of that, I'd be inclined the beat the bushes for more top end skill that might be riskier. The Leafs can afford buy Winniks and Santorellis economically.

Getzlaf had 29g 39a = 68pts in 70 games in his draft year when he was picked 19th overall. *Cherry picked player

Crouse has doubled his output of last year, and is close to a point a game. 

I just think an argument could be made that he's growing into a big body, and that also takes a little time.  He scored damn near a goal a game in AAA a couple of seasons ago, so maybe there's something there.

And just to be clear, I'm not suggesting the Leafs take him at 4 or 5.  I'm just curious as to why people around here haven't been a fan of his, given that he's pretty highly ranked.  I get your arguments, and I really don't feel strongly about it, but man, 6'4 and 212 at 18 years old...and with hands?

I think it's more just where he is ranked more than a genuine dislike.  I think guys like Bo Horvat and Getzlaf are fair arguments but this is a deeper draft than Horvat and as you said Getzlaf was a midround pick. 

I think people are seeing the size and getting too easily wooed.  Kind of like saying wait for Gauthier to develop some Offense.  Cruise has better offensive instincts but to me you shouldn't be drafting a 3rd liner in the top 5

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

McKegg puts the Marlies up 1-0 on Hsmilton.  The Malies have a few games in hand on 7th and 8th place now.  The playoffs are looking bright and should only get better.

Quality jinxing here.

 

[Kin]

And just to be clear, I'm not suggesting the Leafs take him at 4 or 5.  I'm just curious as to why people around here haven't been a fan of his, given that he's pretty highly ranked.

Patrick really answered that though. Size plays a big role in how players are ranked to begin with. It's not anything personal it's just that when you look at the actual data for the draft people see the warning signs. The Leafs especially have a need for top-end offensive talent so there's bound to be less enthusiasm for taking a flyer on someone like Crouse than there might be in Edmonton.

 

[cw]

Just checking on the rankings...so tell me again what's wrong with Lawson Crouse?

This is where Elite Prospects has his ranking:

Ranked #8 by Hockeyprospect.com
Ranked #3 by ISS Hockey
Ranked #6 by Future Considerations
Ranked #6 by McKeen's Hockey
Ranked #4 by NHL Central Scouting (NA Skaters)

He's already 6'4 212lbs (Elite Prospects)...maybe he's just getting used to his size, and the points will come?

Slightly more offensive and more physical Frederick Gauthier, worse defensively, but not a pivot. I read a comparison of him and other highly touted prospects that produced at the same clip in Jnr, I think just about every one underwhelmed at the Pro level.

If you read historical analysis of the draft, it's apparent that the most overvalued metric in the draft is size. Most scouts are seduced by the old school mentality that if they have the size the rest of the game will develop.

It's actually a better risk to take a smaller guy who already has most of the skills, perhaps they need to be polished still and he can potentially grow a few more inches.

Agree.

He was under a ppg in the CHL. It's not a rule without exception because there have been a few exceptions over the years but usually, if one cannot put up a ppg in the CHL, they cannot put up top 6 points in the NHL.

Rankings I saw had him between 3rd and 12th. From the comfort of my couch, his probable top side is as a 3rd liner - but he may be a "safer pick" - more likely to get there (though that's really a guess because I haven't seen much of him).

Because of that, I'd be inclined the beat the bushes for more top end skill that might be riskier. The Leafs can afford buy Winniks and Santorellis economically.

Getzlaf had 29g 39a = 68pts in 70 games in his draft year when he was picked 19th overall. *Cherry picked player

Crouse has doubled his output of last year, and is close to a point a game. 

I just think an argument could be made that he's growing into a big body, and that also takes a little time.  He scored damn near a goal a game in AAA a couple of seasons ago, so maybe there's something there.

And just to be clear, I'm not suggesting the Leafs take him at 4 or 5.  I'm just curious as to why people around here haven't been a fan of his, given that he's pretty highly ranked.  I get your arguments, and I really don't feel strongly about it, but man, 6'4 and 212 at 18 years old...and with hands?

Bertuzzi was another whose numbers were on the low side (I don't recall his exact numbers and how they fell against the scoring projection model). So yeah, there are significant exceptions. But I can also say: there are not lots of them - it's almost rare.

On the other side: there are plenty of guys who scored plenty of CHL points (on points projection basis, they'd project to comfortably be within NHL top six scoring) who didn't even make it to the NHL. So we have to be careful.

And I'd also agree that the bigger bodies tend to develop slower and that probably helps improve the perception of Crouse.

EDIT: another key factor when projecting scoring is the month the player was born - some in the draft are nearly a year older than others.

 

[TML fan]

Would you take Crouse with Nashville's pick?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Would you take Crouse with Nashville's pick?

I would for sure.