2016-17 Centennial Leafs General Team Discussion

[L K]

Kristen Shilton‏ @kristen_shilton
Babs answering question about Matt Martin having never come out of the lineup, interjects with a quick "and he won't."

Anybody who thinks for a second that the Leafs would leave Martin unprotected in the expansion draft is kidding themselves.

7 points in 64 games.  It's frustrating that a guy who has limited playing ability is the guy with protected status.    It's a good reminder that there is no such thing as a perfect coach without any bias in his lineups.

 

[McGarnagle]

Kristen Shilton‏ @kristen_shilton
Babs answering question about Matt Martin having never come out of the lineup, interjects with a quick "and he won't."

Anybody who thinks for a second that the Leafs would leave Martin unprotected in the expansion draft is kidding themselves.

I think that goes double for Komarov. Although that's far more justifiable, imo.

 

[herman]

That bit about Leivo is depressing, but at least it's Soshnikov getting the minutes, and not Fehr.

But really, it ought to be Soshnikov - Boyle - Hyman with Leivo in the top 9 with Kadri, and Nylander - Matthews - Brown.

 

[Kin]

Kristen Shilton‏ @kristen_shilton
Babs answering question about Matt Martin having never come out of the lineup, interjects with a quick "and he won't."

Anybody who thinks for a second that the Leafs would leave Martin unprotected in the expansion draft is kidding themselves.

7 points in 64 games.  It's frustrating that a guy who has limited playing ability is the guy with protected status.    It's a good reminder that there is no such thing as a perfect coach without any bias in his lineups.

Which I think was always the point some of us were making about his contract. It's not so much the actual effects of the deal so much as it is what the deal says about the way the front office values him.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

7 points in 64 games.  It's frustrating that a guy who has limited playing ability is the guy with protected status.    It's a good reminder that there is no such thing as a perfect coach without any bias in his lineups.

Which shouldn't have been a surprise coming in though. Babs played Dan Cleary in Detroit well, well beyond his expiration date for largely the same reasons he likes Martin.

 

[Coco-puffs]

LOL at this Matt Martin business.  He's about as good as you can get in an enforcer-4th line player and he has been dragged down by Ben Smith this year (see below).

You can argue all you want that we shouldn't carry an enforcer-4th line type because we want 4 lines full of skill, but Babcock, Management, and even the Leafs players want him on their team backing the young players up.  I generally don't agree with it, I'd rather see a more skilled 4th line but objectively speaking Matt Martin is not really a big problem.  His contract on the other hand is too heavy for his value on the ice but show me a team without UFA's that are overpaid.

More on being dragged down by Ben Smith:

linky link

His CF% and GF% are 50.2% and 50% respectively away from Smith.  With Smith they are 44.8% and 53.8% respectively, the GF% being propped up by a very high save percentage when they are on the ice together.

Btw, Smith away from Martin sports a 20% GF% and 35.1% CF%.  The problem with the 4th line wasn't Matt Martin, it was Ben Smith.

 

[mr grieves]

From MLHS's Anaheim game review:

4. You don?t have to like every little decision a coach makes on a game-to-game basis. Even if I don?t agree, I typically see the logic in most of what Mike Babcock does. Scratching Josh Leivo is an exception.

It is bothersome on a couple of levels: 1) The Leafs are a better team with him in the lineup; 2) It sends a pretty awful message.

Leivo bided his time for over half a season on the sidelines and by all accounts worked very hard in practice (it showed in his skating when he got his chance). He entered the lineup on the fourth line playing alongside Ben Smith and Matt Martin with little to no game reps under his belt and did a pretty good job of making the most of those eight or nine minutes. Hungry and motivated, he was effective retrieving/recovering pucks on the forecheck and showed his skill down low.

An injury then occurred higher in the lineup and he took full advantage of an opportunity to play on Komarov and Kadri?s line ? the sort of opportunity Babcock would talk about when asked about Leivo or Corrado, in terms of the player needing to be patient and ready when called on. Babcock went as far as to say that trio was ?dominant? in his review of the line?s performance against Winnipeg. Overall, Leivo has put up nine points and 21 shots on goal in his last eight games and has posted a 56.4 CF% over his 12 games this season (small sample size, but that?s tops on the team).

After Mitch Marner came back, Leivo played on the fourth line at even strength along with some powerplay time against the Sharks. He picked up a nice primary assist on Auston Matthews? PP goal in that game.

He did everything the coach asked of him, and now he?s been scratched for two consecutive games.

 

[herman]

Re-reading the Matt Martin and Ben Smith signing threads now.
For funsies.

 

[herman]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/03/06/leafs-notebook-expansion-draft-update/

Forwards since Feb 1:

Player		Games Played		Points		Time on Ice		Herman's Thoughts
Auston Matthews		16		16		18:03		Yeah, baby! He's like a shark with lasers.
Leo Komarov		16		7		17:29		That's fair, but it's a lot of time (both special teams)
Connor Brown		16		6		17:11		As expected
Zach Hyman		16		4		17:09		Riding shotgun with Matthews and Nylander, eh?
Nazem Kadri		16		12		17:03		Niiiice
William Nylander		16		14		16:50		Very niiice? The defensive game is rounding out nicely. More minutes please.
Tyler Bozak		15		10		16:09		Pretty good in sheltered minutes
Mitch Marner		11		9		15:56		That's really good for sheltered minutes
JVR		16		8		15:24		Just okay
Josh Leivo		10		9		13:27		This guy should be a healthy scratch on a nightly basis
Brian Boyle		3		1		12:13		Solid
Ben Smith		11		1		11:00		Whoa, he got one?
Nikita Soshnikov		11		1		10:05		Slightly more selective shooting would be nice
Frederik Gauthier		3		0		9:59		Needs more oven time
Matt Martin		16		0		8:54		This guy should be in the lineup night in and night out

 

[mr grieves]

From Herman's link above:

Notable players not included on that list include Nazem Kadri, Connor Brown and JVR, as all three will surely be protected. It also appears unlikely that Toronto would be willing to lose Tyler Bozak or Leo Komarov for free considering their roles on the team and potential trade value should the club look to move them.

That would leave two protected spots for any of Matt Martin, Brendan Leipsic, Josh Leivo, Eric Fehr, Martin Marincin, Alexey Marchenko, and Kerby Rychel. It?s tough to get a read on which of the young players Toronto likes enough to keep ? Leivo has looked good but is a regular healthy scratch, the same goes for Marincin, Leipsic and Rychel haven?t played in the NHL this season, and Marchenko doesn?t look like anything special. At the same time, the coaching staff and management have sung the praises of Matt Martin all season and it would be surprising if Toronto made him available with that in mind.

Hopefully they can trade some of Bozak, JvR, and Komarov before the expansion draft so they can protect both Babcock's toys and the young guys with upside...

 

[LuncheonMeat]

Kristen Shilton‏ @kristen_shilton
Babs answering question about Matt Martin having never come out of the lineup, interjects with a quick "and he won't."

Anybody who thinks for a second that the Leafs would leave Martin unprotected in the expansion draft is kidding themselves.

I don't think this Babcock quote has been posted yet. Just more of his thoughts on Martin and his (perceived) importance to the team.  :-\

?(Martin) doesn?t let anyone get smacked,? Babcock said. ?We have a bunch of kids and I don?t want them to get cross-checked and abused.
We haven?t had any of that. Now with Boyle here, suddenly that?s two big men. I thought their line was really good for us (in Anaheim).?

 

[herman]

Sort of to Coco-puff's point, Martin (and the 4th line overall) has looked good with Boyle in this small sample.

The centres really determine the playstyle of the lines, unless the winger is an exceptional play driver himself.

As Martin is a complementary winger, his performance is basically tied to his centre's. He was good* with Holland, he's been pretty good with Gauthier, and he's been revitalized with Boyle. Smith, unfortunately, can't play fast, skilled, or heavy, and his hand injury nerfed his one skill of value.

I like how Martin takes care of the rookies off the ice. I think his on-ice value is marginal, but survivable in a build year.

*good is a relative term to expectations

Edit: I still hate the contract and the fact they dug into the FA market for this, but I can't change the past so I'm not going to sweat it.

 

[mr grieves]

I think the problem is less Matt Martin himself than how many Matt Martins Babcock has. Gritty guys who are alway going, diggin around for the puck for the opportunity to put food on the table or whatever are fine... in moderation.

I looked at the same stuff herman/MLHS did in the chart above, but went back to the bye-week, when the decline started. Nylander, Kadri, Marner, and Soshnikov are playing and producing better than they were earlier in the season. Some have been holding pretty steady -- Komarov and Martin are what they are (Bozak and JvR struggled without Marner). But there's been a decline in points, P60, xGF% for Brown, Hyman, and Matthews.

So, I dunno. It seems pretty clear this Leivo kid should be in the top9 over Komarov, Brown, and Hyman. But Babcock sure does love them.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I think the problem is less Matt Martin himself than how many Matt Martins Babcock has. Gritty guys who are alway going, diggin around for the puck for the opportunity to put food on the table or whatever are fine... in moderation.

I looked at the same stuff herman/MLHS did in the chart above, but went back to the bye-week, when the decline started. Nylander, Kadri, Marner, and Soshnikov are playing and producing better than they were earlier in the season. Some have been holding pretty steady -- Komarov and Martin are what they are (Bozak and JvR struggled without Marner). But there's been a decline in points, P60, xGF% for Brown, Hyman, and Matthews.

So, I dunno. It seems pretty clear this Leivo kid should be in the top9 over Komarov, Brown, and Hyman. But Babcock sure does love them.

I'll agree with you on Hyman and Komarov... but not Brown.  Take a look at Matthews numbers with and without Brown and you'll be shocked. 

Matthews w/ Brown.  3.58 GF60
Matthews w/o Brown.  1.93 GF60

Underlying numbers (ie Corsi) aren't as good compared to Nylander on his wing, but actual results favour Brown.

Seriously though, this would be my lineup:

Nylander - Matthews - Brown
JvR - Bozak - Marner
Komarov/Hyman - Kadri - Leivo
Hyman/Komarov - Boyle - Sosh

 

[mr grieves]

I'll agree with you on Hyman and Komarov... but not Brown.  Take a look at Matthews numbers with and without Brown and you'll be shocked. 

Matthews w/ Brown.  3.58 GF60
Matthews w/o Brown.  1.93 GF60

Underlying numbers (ie Corsi) aren't as good compared to Nylander on his wing, but actual results favour Brown.

Seriously though, this would be my lineup:

Nylander - Matthews - Brown
JvR - Bozak - Marner
Komarov/Hyman - Kadri - Leivo
Hyman/Komarov - Boyle - Sosh

I included Brown for no reason other than how he's looked. He seems, to my eyes, like he's hit a bit of a wall, could use a few games off. Especially when there are young guys waiting to get in.

The lecture I'm in is very dull. A chart comparing forwards before and after the bye-week:

Forwards............	pre-GP...	ES Pts...	PPG...............	post-GP...	ES Pts...	PPG...............	Change
J Leivo	2	0	0.00	10	7	0.70	0.70
N Kadri	39	14	0.36	25	18	0.72	0.36
W Nylander	38	11	0.29	25	14	0.56	0.27
N Soshnikov	29	3	0.10	20	3	0.15	0.05
M Martin	39	4	0.10	25	3	0.12	0.02
M Marner	39	23	0.59	20	11	0.55	-0.04
L Komarov	39	10	0.26	25	5	0.20	-0.06
C Brown	39	15	0.38	25	8	0.32	-0.06
T Bozak	36	18	0.50	24	10	0.42	-0.08
A Matthews	39	25	0.64	25	13	0.52	-0.12
JvRiemsdyk	39	23	0.59	25	10	0.40	-0.19
Z Hyman	39	18	0.46	25	4	0.16	-0.30
F Gauthier	9	3	0.33	12	0	0.00	-0.33

So, I'd give a Marner a few more games to get back into gear after the injury, see if the sheltered scoring line can return, and start getting creative to get Matthews going again.

Nylander - Matthews - Brown
Komarov - Kadri - Leivo
JvR - Bozak - Marner
Martin/Hyman - Boyle - Hyman/Soshnikov

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/03/06/leafs-notebook-expansion-draft-update/

As per usual, his "5 Things I Think I?d Do" list is pretty good. One of them, putting Marincin back in for Marchenko, is something I suggested the other day too. There's really no reason Marincin should be sitting for this long, especially considering we aren't exactly piling up the wins right now.

I also like the "try Boyle in front of the net instead of Komarov" idea on the PP. I remember Babs said that would be a thing when the trade went down, but I don't think we've seen it yet.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/03/06/leafs-notebook-expansion-draft-update/

As per usual, his "5 Things I Think I?d Do" list is pretty good. One of them, putting Marincin back in for Marchenko, is something I suggested the other day too. There's really no reason Marincin should be sitting for this long, especially considering we aren't exactly piling up the wins right now.

I also like the "try Boyle in front of the net instead of Komarov" idea on the PP. I remember Babs said that would be a thing when the trade went down, but I don't think we've seen it yet.

I like both ideas. Marchenko hasn't been very impressive so far, and I think the Leafs would be farther ahead with Marincin in the lineup.... unless I'm missing something. As for Boyle, I look forward to seeing him in front of the net. Hopefully he can channel his inner Andreychuk (that's a thing).

 

[McGarnagle]

As per usual, his "5 Things I Think I?d Do" list is pretty good. One of them, putting Marincin back in for Marchenko, is something I suggested the other day too. There's really no reason Marincin should be sitting for this long, especially considering we aren't exactly piling up the wins right now.

I'm wondering if Marincin's injury earlier in the year has him still having issues getting back into form. He looked like a lock for a 5-6 at the end of last season, and this season he's looked slow, both in foot speed and decision making.

If he's truly healthy, then yeah, I'd want to see him back in, but I wonder if there's something else going on with him.

 

[herman]

I wouldn't mind this:
https://twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/838915583538262016
www.twitter.com/ChartingHockey/status/838915583538262016

 

[Kin]

I don't think Babcock would be ok without a L-R split on defense.