2016-17 Centennial Leafs General Team Discussion

[Coco-puffs]

Speaking of systems and specialty teams:
https://theathletic.com/38962/2017/02/23/how-jim-hiller-has-brought-special-teams-success-and-an-analytical-eye-to-the-leafs-bench/

TIL: Jim Hiller was actually one of those analytics hires; he was trying to sell an analytics package to the Red Wings, impressing Babcock to the point of hiring him outright. He's also one of those analytics guys that can translate what the numbers say into what options and decisions players can take next time in those situations. If you see a mid-game adjustment in offensive tactics, it's likely Hiller behind the move.

I thought that was a very good article.  The interesting thing to me that actually requires some more comment:

Hiller made a significant and immediate impact on the Red Wings power play. They went from 18th in the league (17.7 per cent) before his arrival to second in the league with a 23.8 per cent success rate.

This year the Leafs have the #1 power play.  So it shows he's having quite an impact on PP's, but to some degree it's overstated.  He was also the PP coach last year, when they had the 29th ranked PP in the league.  Elite talent makes a HUGE difference. 

As the article states, he's doing a very good job in making our Elite talent execute and adjust to the opposition.  But without that Elite talent, coaching doesn't get you very far on a PP.

(Note:  I haven't looked at underlying numbers.  I'd bet they generated a ton on the PP last year too, but had some poor luck and poor finishing)

 

[herman]

I'd bet they generated a ton on the PP last year too, but had some poor luck and poor finishing

Pretty much. You're spot on about elite shooting talent making the difference.

It's been noted a few times in broadcasts, but the players coming up are much more skilled in general, largely due to the trickle-down effect of the 2004 lockout and rule changes (and I guess wanting to show off on Instagram). The kids coming in have had ample access to composite sticks, and played in youth leagues where the emphasis was on skill and speed, not hitting.

 

[Arn]

Is Conor Brown vastly underrated due to the presence of the likes of Matthews Marner & Nylander, or is his value recognised?

 

[Kin]

Is Conor Brown vastly underrated due to the presence of the likes of Matthews Marner & Nylander, or is his value recognised?

Eh, I'm not so high on him. I think he's benefiting a ton from the aggregated offensive talent on the team.

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/MapleLeafsHS/status/834945351580794885
Love the gumption here by the goat.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Is Conor Brown vastly underrated due to the presence of the likes of Matthews Marner & Nylander, or is his value recognised?

Eh, I'm not so high on him. I think he's benefiting a ton from the aggregated offensive talent on the team.

And Nik proves the point he's underrated.  He might not the the most skilled guy, but he plays fast and he plays right.  He's a good middle six RW ALREADY.  Having two Elite ones right now definitely keeps him under the radar. 

 

[Arn]

Is Conor Brown vastly underrated due to the presence of the likes of Matthews Marner & Nylander, or is his value recognised?

Eh, I'm not so high on him. I think he's benefiting a ton from the aggregated offensive talent on the team.

I wonder if he could be a bit of an Alex Steen type. He's on pace for approaching 40 points this season in his first full year.

I reckon given the right circumstances he could maybe push 60 points in a very productive year. I like him as a solid 3rd line winger with potential to slide up to cover injuries.

 

[Kin]

I wonder if he could be a bit of an Alex Steen type. He's on pace for approaching 40 points this season in his first full year.

I reckon given the right circumstances he could maybe push 60 points in a very productive year. I like him as a solid 3rd line winger with potential to slide up to cover injuries.

If "solid 3rd line winger" is how we want to talk about him I think that's more or less fair. In that context though I guess I'm confused as to how he could really be vastly underrated. I don't see people saying, and I'm not saying, he shouldn't be in the league or anything.

I think he'll be an ok guy to have on the third line. I guess I'm not sure to what extent we should be celebrating that.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I wonder if he could be a bit of an Alex Steen type. He's on pace for approaching 40 points this season in his first full year.

I reckon given the right circumstances he could maybe push 60 points in a very productive year. I like him as a solid 3rd line winger with potential to slide up to cover injuries.

If "solid 3rd line winger" is how we want to talk about him I think that's more or less fair. In that context though I guess I'm confused as to how he could really be vastly underrated. I don't see people saying, and I'm not saying, he shouldn't be in the league or anything.

I think he'll be an ok guy to have on the third line. I guess I'm not sure to what extent we should be celebrating that.

Ok guy on the third line?  He's on pace for 20 goals in his rookie season.  Only 5 players did that last year (McJesus would have been the 6th had he not been injured).  And only 3 of his points have come on the Power Play, where he's not seen consistent minutes.

Number of forwards to hit 20 Goals last year:  101
Number of forwards to hit 40 Points last year:  136

He'll be a 20 G - 20 A player IMO.  That's solid 2nd line territory. 

I know I'm biased in my view of Brown because I've been excited about him since his Draft+1 year.  But if you think he's "just an ok 3rd line guy" you are underrating him.   

 

[Kin]

Ok guy on the third line?  He's on pace for 20 goals in his rookie season.  Only 5 players did that last year (McJesus would have been the 6th had he not been injured).  And only 3 of his points have come on the Power Play, where he's not seen consistent minutes.

That seems like an odd threshold to invest quite so heavily in.

If, instead, you looked at a threshold of 35 points or so, you'd see that roughly 8-10 rookies a year hit that mark and, if you look at that roll through the years, you'd see that some of those guys go on to see significant growth and some don't(and typically the ones who do are the ones who hit that level at a fairly young age and with a solid draft pedigree).

His scoring per 60 at 5v5 is 110th in the league among forwards who've played 500+ minutes so, you know, that's not mindbending or anything. His possession numbers are ok but, again, nothing to write home about.

Not all rookies score at his level, sure, but not all rookies get to play with as talented a center as he has most of the year(or been on such an offensive minded team).

Right now he's 3rd on the team's RW depth chart. I don't expect him to get higher than that and I think he'll do alright in the job. I'm pretty comfortable with the accuracy of how I'm rating him.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Ok guy on the third line?  He's on pace for 20 goals in his rookie season.  Only 5 players did that last year (McJesus would have been the 6th had he not been injured).  And only 3 of his points have come on the Power Play, where he's not seen consistent minutes.

That seems like an odd threshold to invest quite so heavily in.

If, instead, you looked at a threshold of 35 points or so, you'd see that roughly 8-10 rookies a year hit that mark and, if you look at that roll through the years, you'd see that some of those guys go on to see significant growth and some don't(and typically the ones who do are the ones who hit that level at a fairly young age and with a solid draft pedigree).

His scoring per 60 at 5v5 is 110th in the league among forwards who've played 500+ minutes so, you know, that's not mindbending or anything. His possession numbers are ok but, again, nothing to write home about.

Not all rookies score at his level, sure, but not all rookies get to play with as talented a center as he has most of the year(or been on such an offensive minded team).

Right now he's 3rd on the team's RW depth chart. I don't expect him to get higher than that and I think he'll do alright in the job. I'm pretty comfortable with the accuracy of how I'm rating him.

110th out of 285 qualifed forwards.  So he's in the 39th percentile out of an average of 9.5 forwards per team that qualify (ie, mostly Top 9 guys).  Yup, 3rd liner.

As for 3rd on the team at RW depth chart- I'm not sure HOW that correlates to whether or not he's truly a 3rd line player.  Especially just an "ok" or "alright" one when he's playing behind elite players on that chart.  When Nylander moves to Center, and he will eventually according to Babcock, Brown moves to 2nd in that depth chart. 

Glad you are comfortable under-rating him.  It means anything above that is a bonus.  If we want to be a cup contender, we need Brown to be better than an "ok" 3rd line player considering Kapanen is probably the only other player I'd say has a shot to supplant him on the RW depth chart.

 

[Kin]

110th out of 285 qualifed forwards.  So he's in the 39th percentile out of an average of 9.5 forwards per team that qualify (ie, mostly Top 9 guys).  Yup, 3rd liner.

I think that if you were to take a critical, unbiased look at the guys above him you'd find a pretty healthy mix of really top flight hockey players and guys who just happen to be playing with really top flight hockey players. I think Brown's in the latter category.

As for 3rd on the team at RW depth chart- I'm not sure HOW that correlates to whether or not he's truly a 3rd line player.  Especially just an "ok" or "alright" one when he's playing behind elite players on that chart.  When Nylander moves to Center, and he will eventually according to Babcock, Brown moves to 2nd in that depth chart.

I mention he's third on the depth chart only because right now the Leafs don't exactly have a top down 4 line structure and so it's important to differentiate where a player is on the depth chart from the sort of arbitrary "first line" or "third line" designation.

And I think if the Leafs were seriously faced with the possibility of an extended period of time with Brown as the #2 guy on the depth chart they'd probably start looking externally for other options. I think Kapanen slots into that #2 spot when Nylander makes the transition and, if he can't hack it, they probably look elsewhere. 

Glad you are comfortable under-rating him.  It means anything above that is a bonus.

It really doesn't. Where I rate Brown doesn't really have any bearing on his value.

  If we want to be a cup contender, we need Brown to be better than an "ok" 3rd line player considering Kapanen is probably the only other player I'd say has a shot to supplant him on the RW depth chart.

Not really. Teams win cups with ok 3rd line players all the time. You win cups based on your top end guys. Chicago didn't beat Tampa because Bryan Bickell was head and shoulders above Alex Killorn.

 

[Arn]

I think what I was getting at was that in another year Brown would be putting in performances where you'd be noticing him and thinking he could be a solid long term piece of the puzzle. But he's clearly being outshone by a pretty unique trio meaning Brown is flying under the radar a little. So "under rated" perhaps was more "under recognised"?

 

[mr grieves]

Ok guy on the third line?  He's on pace for 20 goals in his rookie season.  Only 5 players did that last year (McJesus would have been the 6th had he not been injured).  And only 3 of his points have come on the Power Play, where he's not seen consistent minutes.

That seems like an odd threshold to invest quite so heavily in.

If, instead, you looked at a threshold of 35 points or so, you'd see that roughly 8-10 rookies a year hit that mark and, if you look at that roll through the years, you'd see that some of those guys go on to see significant growth and some don't(and typically the ones who do are the ones who hit that level at a fairly young age and with a solid draft pedigree).

His scoring per 60 at 5v5 is 110th in the league among forwards who've played 500+ minutes so, you know, that's not mindbending or anything. His possession numbers are ok but, again, nothing to write home about.

Not all rookies score at his level, sure, but not all rookies get to play with as talented a center as he has most of the year(or been on such an offensive minded team).

Right now he's 3rd on the team's RW depth chart. I don't expect him to get higher than that and I think he'll do alright in the job. I'm pretty comfortable with the accuracy of how I'm rating him.

110th out of 285 qualifed forwards.  So he's in the 39th percentile out of an average of 9.5 forwards per team that qualify (ie, mostly Top 9 guys).  Yup, 3rd liner.

As for 3rd on the team at RW depth chart- I'm not sure HOW that correlates to whether or not he's truly a 3rd line player.  Especially just an "ok" or "alright" one when he's playing behind elite players on that chart.  When Nylander moves to Center, and he will eventually according to Babcock, Brown moves to 2nd in that depth chart. 

Glad you are comfortable under-rating him.  It means anything above that is a bonus.  If we want to be a cup contender, we need Brown to be better than an "ok" 3rd line player considering Kapanen is probably the only other player I'd say has a shot to supplant him on the RW depth chart.

Does the depth chart on the RW really matter as much as the overall talent level of your third line? That is, the 3L is centered by Kadri or Nylander, rather than a Nick Bonino, they can probably do okay if Brown isn't a Kessel. 

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

https://twitter.com/GarretHohl/status/836062631622406146

 

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/GarretHohl/status/836062631622406146

LOL, my wife has said all along that Matthews reminds her of Jack White.  Never seen the Nylander thing before though.  He's more like King Joffrey from Game of Thrones.

 

[herman]

ICYMI: Bozak had a hand infection and it was scary gross.

https://theathletic.com/40998/2017/02/28/mirtle-the-harrowing-tale-of-tyler-bozaks-funky-finger/

 

[rdowdall]

ICYMI: Bozak had a hand infection and it was scary gross.

https://theathletic.com/40998/2017/02/28/mirtle-the-harrowing-tale-of-tyler-bozaks-funky-finger/

See that's where Babcock missed a way to have some fun with the media. 

Media:  "Can you tell us about Bozak's injury?"
Babcock:  (Looks in dressing room, Bozak's hands are at his side) "It's a lower body injury"
Media:  "What is your game plan for the Canadiens tonight?"
Babcock:  (Looks in dressing room, Bozak is scratching his chin) "I have an update on Bozie, it's now an upper body injury"
Media:  "Wait, what?"
Babcock: (Looks in dressing room, Bozak's hands are back at his side) " I have another update.  It's again a lower body injury"
Media:  "We're done here."

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Kristen Shilton‏ @kristen_shilton
Babs answering question about Matt Martin having never come out of the lineup, interjects with a quick "and he won't."

Anybody who thinks for a second that the Leafs would leave Martin unprotected in the expansion draft is kidding themselves.

 

[mr grieves]

Another infuriating bit from that press conference:

[tweet]838467512064966659[/tweet]

"...just one of those situations where that's what we've decided."

They have 5 wins in the last 18 games, so resting on decisions seems odd. The lines haven't moved much at all this year, and, while I get that constantly mixing things up can be harmful, the stasis is getting to the point that the coach seems complacent.