2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion
- Thread starter herman
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Coco-puffs
New member
Something I'd like to see them try after tonight's game (mostly because Hainsey seems to have been overworked this season):
Gardiner - Rielly
Dermott - Zaitsev
Hainsey - Carrick
It will give Dermott more minutes (which I think he's ready for) without having him play the other teams top guys and drop Hainsey's 5v5 minutes. We know he's still going to play most of a PK.
Gardiner - Rielly
Dermott - Zaitsev
Hainsey - Carrick
It will give Dermott more minutes (which I think he's ready for) without having him play the other teams top guys and drop Hainsey's 5v5 minutes. We know he's still going to play most of a PK.
Coco-puffs said:
I'd even settle for Hainsey-Polak if it meant we got that top-4. It won't happen this season though.
herman said:
Oh, sure, there's tons of reasons to not like that pairing.
herman
Well-known member
https://theathletic.com/281474/2018/03/23/dellow-why-isnt-the-maple-leafs-first-line-more-dominant/
Tyler Dellow asks, why isn't the Leafs' 'first' line more dominant?
They have the highest 5v5 goal differential, and highest shooting percentage (12% compared to 9% league avg for 1st lines), and a pretty high save percentage when they're on the ice. They seem to give up a lot of shot attempts that make it to the net too (hovering around 50% CF%, and nearly 60% of the chances against them make it to the net).
Send me your theories that aren't just 'Zach Hyman'.
Tyler Dellow asks, why isn't the Leafs' 'first' line more dominant?
They have the highest 5v5 goal differential, and highest shooting percentage (12% compared to 9% league avg for 1st lines), and a pretty high save percentage when they're on the ice. They seem to give up a lot of shot attempts that make it to the net too (hovering around 50% CF%, and nearly 60% of the chances against them make it to the net).
Send me your theories that aren't just 'Zach Hyman'.
It's because of Zach Hy... oh, nevermind.
How about because they don't play enough? Matthews is 69th among forwards in all-situations ice time. Nylander is 132nd. For Matthews it's a little better if you're looking at 5-on-5 only... he's ranked 12th there, but Nylander is still only 67th.
How about because they don't play enough? Matthews is 69th among forwards in all-situations ice time. Nylander is 132nd. For Matthews it's a little better if you're looking at 5-on-5 only... he's ranked 12th there, but Nylander is still only 67th.
ZBBM
Active member
CarltonTheBear said:
Well, this.
Also, I have to say that Nylander seems to miss quite a few Grade A chances. Last night's breakaway being one example. And yes, I understand how hard it is to score.
More ice time though I think is the simple answer.
Plus, what is premise of the question? Is it, if they were more "dominant," the Leafs would be right up there with TBL and NSH in points? I mean, they aren't that far off.
Coco-puffs
New member
herman said:
Since not everyone has access to The Athletic, Dellow is asking why they aren't more "dominant" from a Corsi/Fenwick/ShotsOnNet perspective.
From a goals perspective, they are the best line the league, sitting at +30 in terms of 5v5 Goal Difference. They've done that on the backs of very high percentages (12% OnIce Sh%, .944 OnIce Sv%).
Well, when you have a heat map like this,
https://twitter.com/arvi/status/977204474698661889
I'd say you are dominating (in terms of quality) enough not to worry about your shot share. Although, I'd prefer if they weren't relying on Freddie to make as many saves as they are.
Dellow's point is you can't bank on percentages always going your way. But, if the analytics are missing the fact that they are clearly passing up lots of low quality shots in order to try and generate high-quality shots, then his concern regarding their shot share shouldn't be a big deal.
herman
Well-known member
Coco-puffs said:
The concern is that percentages tend to regress to the mean over time, both save percentages and shoot percentages, whereas shot share is a good deal more stable in the long run.
They definitely are being more selective than other players tend to be, hence the heatmap and shooting percentages. I also think raw Corsi is not something the team is deliberately building for (Corsi is just one of our best proxies for puck possession so far). It?s hard to say without the microstats available publicly, but it seems to me their focus is on creating pre-shot movement from and for specific areas of the ice, and/or generating chaos (tips from the high-low point shot; rebounds of the far pad).
If they can sort out the shot attempts against, I think they?ll be even better off in the long run. They play a very open attack, which does result in chances against, but they?re usually more offensively skilled enough that it?s a worthwhile trade off.
herman
Well-known member
This is not to say that our guys will necessarily be worse next year. I think it can be argued that their percentages last year were below their individual means, and this year it corrected a bit over.
But the surefire way to hedge against probabilistic regression is to have the puck far more frequently.
https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/977224538101637120
But the surefire way to hedge against probabilistic regression is to have the puck far more frequently.
https://twitter.com/dellowhockey/status/977224538101637120
bustaheims
Active member
bustaheims said:
Update:
Washington (1st in Metro): 15
Pittsburgh (2nd in Metro): 10
Columbus (3rd in Metro): 9
Philly (1st Wildcard): 8
Florida: 7
New Jersey (2nd Wildcard): 6
Leafs could clinch a playoff spot as early as Monday.
herman
Well-known member
http://faceoffcircle.ca/2018/03/24/the-leafs-ice-time-and-how-it-pertains-to-usage-not-record/
In response to people/media conflating ice time with team records, Jeff Veillette dives into what the bench does in different phases of the game this season.
Top Third, Middle Third, Bottom Third indicate chunks when the players down the left receive TOI that slots into the top, middle, or bottom third of the roster by the end of the game and shows the game results.
Just looking at the line-ups that Babcock puts together for the most part, he likes to build them with these situations in mind: driving for offense, and buttoning up a lead, with one line being the primary for each, and another line for being the backup. Because hockey is a flow game, most lines also have a tertiary role they temporarily take on due to circumstance.
This is why I've been saying the Plekanec trade is important down the stretch (and Babcock has said it a few times already); coupled with Kapanen and Johnsson's emergences, it gives us a 4th line that comes a lot closer to providing the shutdown minutes that Kadri's is relied on (with tertiary backup from Matthews). It's nice when they score, but their main priority is to take the puck out of their own zone and keep it in the OZ. They tried to do it with big and strong (Gauthier, Martin, Boyle), and Babcock is coming around to the idea that speed (mixed with smart gumption) can perform the same role even better at times. Our 4th line is awesome because they're all at least 3rd liners being pushed down the depth chart.
In response to people/media conflating ice time with team records, Jeff Veillette dives into what the bench does in different phases of the game this season.
Top Third, Middle Third, Bottom Third indicate chunks when the players down the left receive TOI that slots into the top, middle, or bottom third of the roster by the end of the game and shows the game results.
Just looking at the line-ups that Babcock puts together for the most part, he likes to build them with these situations in mind: driving for offense, and buttoning up a lead, with one line being the primary for each, and another line for being the backup. Because hockey is a flow game, most lines also have a tertiary role they temporarily take on due to circumstance.
This is why I've been saying the Plekanec trade is important down the stretch (and Babcock has said it a few times already); coupled with Kapanen and Johnsson's emergences, it gives us a 4th line that comes a lot closer to providing the shutdown minutes that Kadri's is relied on (with tertiary backup from Matthews). It's nice when they score, but their main priority is to take the puck out of their own zone and keep it in the OZ. They tried to do it with big and strong (Gauthier, Martin, Boyle), and Babcock is coming around to the idea that speed (mixed with smart gumption) can perform the same role even better at times. Our 4th line is awesome because they're all at least 3rd liners being pushed down the depth chart.
https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/978450523857731584
Cool.
Cool.
Strangelove
New member
CarltonTheBear said:
Leave it to Babcock to automatically plug in the "heavy" body who barely hits, can't keep up with his linemates, and is one of the worst offensive players in the league.
herman
Well-known member
Let me preface this by stating that Johnsson is better than Komarov.
Komarov went out of the lineup because of injury. You can?t really take spots away from someone because of injury, or else players start hiding them. Komarov - Plekanec - Kapanen is good. The role of that line is not for offence, but it can still contribute. Johnsson is better for offence, but Komarov is better for defense and PK. Some of the MLHS guys theorized that Komarov has been told to hold back on the physical stuff for the regular season so he has enough in the tank for the actual games.
That being said, I still prefer Johnsson there as he and Kapanen can both flex up and down the lineup. Komarov is used that way, but he is generally one dimensional. He has a shot, but it takes too much time to use effectively.
Komarov went out of the lineup because of injury. You can?t really take spots away from someone because of injury, or else players start hiding them. Komarov - Plekanec - Kapanen is good. The role of that line is not for offence, but it can still contribute. Johnsson is better for offence, but Komarov is better for defense and PK. Some of the MLHS guys theorized that Komarov has been told to hold back on the physical stuff for the regular season so he has enough in the tank for the actual games.
That being said, I still prefer Johnsson there as he and Kapanen can both flex up and down the lineup. Komarov is used that way, but he is generally one dimensional. He has a shot, but it takes too much time to use effectively.
We all knew that Komarov was coming back in right away. The issue now is will Babcock take him out after a few games when the question isn't "can you take spots away from someone because of an injury" but "can you take spots away from someone because someone else is clearly better".
I mean, the answer to that will still be "no" probably but we'll see.
I mean, the answer to that will still be "no" probably but we'll see.