2020-2021 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[princedpw]

Hyman, Foligno, and Nash have all been skating recently and look pretty close to being healthy. Hopefully they're able to get into the final 2 regular season games and we can get a better idea what our playoff line-up is gonna look like. Still sticking to my prediction from a little bit ago which was:

Foligno-Matthews-Marner
Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Nash-Hyman
Thornton-Spezza-Simmonds

Gally and Engvall have done a good job in the last couple weeks to make this a tough decision on Keefe, and to signal to the rest of the line-up that changes could come quick if need be. And that could certainly be the case if guys like Nash/Thornton/Simmonds don't make an impact early on (or make a negative impact).

Personally I take out Mikheyev over Galchenyuk and I run the following:

Foligno-Matthews-Marner
Galchenyuk-Tavares-Nylander
Kerfoot-Nash-Hyman
Thornton-Spezza-Simmonds

Foligno can take Mikheyev's spot on the PK if needed. Plus having Hyman & Nash back is another huge PK player in the mix. With that in mind, I think Galchenyuk brings more to the table than Mikheyev.

From what I see on the ice, either Thornton or Simmonds are the team?s least effective players. I?d push Thornton to the bench ... but of course intangibles... still I think this might be my favorite lineup:

Foligno-Matthews-Marner
Galchenyuk-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Nash-Hyman
Kerfoot-Spezza-Simmonds

 

[ZBBM]

This is a really interesting debate.  Dappleganger has a point about taking scorers off the board (even if, like Mikheyev, their scoring has been more potential than actual this year).

Vs MTL, if Price is back in and he starts stoning us, then I would question having Nash in over anybody else who can score better.  We don't need an elite shutdown center to shut down MTL.

1) I'm not so sure it's true that we don't need a shutdown guy to beat Montreal. Suzuki would be the guy that line goes up against and he has 19 points in his last 21 games including 7 points in 6 games against Toronto in that span. He could be an x-factor for them.

2) Like I said before I think having Nash in that spot actually improves our offence on other lines. As a Leaf Kerfoot hasn't really shown that he can produce much offence as the 3C, but has a good track record of putting up points on the Tavares line while also being a good defensive presence.

3) Nash, if he plays like he has in the past, is a guy who will probably provide more value in the 2nd, 3rd, and hopefully 4th rounds of the playoffs when we're playing teams with a deeper offensive roster.

I mean, we've kind of seen what he did against us in the last couple of playoffs. Why are we writing him off all of a sudden because he's not an offensive weapon?

You can never win in this fanbase. Dubas is leaning to heavily on offense, defense wins championships. Why did Dubas get defensive specialists when we need more firepower from 3 lines?

I'm not.  I'm saying in certain situations against certain teams it makes sense to sit him in favor of someone with more offensive potential.  I'm not worried about Suzuki or anyone else on the Habs outgunning us.  And even against them, I am all for Nash unless Price (or whomever) looks like he's going to steal the series.

The story's different with Edomonton, or even Winnipeg.  If we win the first round, then it's all Nash all the time.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

This is a really interesting debate.  Dappleganger has a point about taking scorers off the board (even if, like Mikheyev, their scoring has been more potential than actual this year).

Vs MTL, if Price is back in and he starts stoning us, then I would question having Nash in over anybody else who can score better.  We don't need an elite shutdown center to shut down MTL.

1) I'm not so sure it's true that we don't need a shutdown guy to beat Montreal. Suzuki would be the guy that line goes up against and he has 19 points in his last 21 games including 7 points in 6 games against Toronto in that span. He could be an x-factor for them.

2) Like I said before I think having Nash in that spot actually improves our offence on other lines. As a Leaf Kerfoot hasn't really shown that he can produce much offence as the 3C, but has a good track record of putting up points on the Tavares line while also being a good defensive presence.

3) Nash, if he plays like he has in the past, is a guy who will probably provide more value in the 2nd, 3rd, and hopefully 4th rounds of the playoffs when we're playing teams with a deeper offensive roster.

I mean, we've kind of seen what he did against us in the last couple of playoffs. Why are we writing him off all of a sudden because he's not an offensive weapon?

You can never win in this fanbase. Dubas is leaning to heavily on offense, defense wins championships. Why did Dubas get defensive specialists when we need more firepower from 3 lines?

I'm not.  I'm saying in certain situations against certain teams it makes sense to sit him in favor of someone with more offensive potential.  I'm not worried about Suzuki or anyone else on the Habs outgunning us.  And even against them, I am all for Nash unless Price (or whomever) looks like he's going to steal the series.

The story's different with Edomonton, or even Winnipeg.  If we win the first round, then it's all Nash all the time.

Even with Price standing on his head, Nash would free up Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares.

The Leafs don't need help scoring. They need help defending. They are not getting anymore offense from Mikheyev than they could get from Nash...So, like I said above, you put the better defender in. And if we want to keep Mikheyev in for his speed, you drop Galchenyuk and move Kerfoot up to the 2nd line like Carlton suggested.

 

[bustaheims]

Even with Price standing on his head, Nash would free up Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares.

The Leafs don't need help scoring. They need help defending. They are not getting anymore offense from Mikheyev than they could get from Nash...So, like I said above, you put the better defender in. And if we want to keep Mikheyev in for his speed, you drop Galchenyuk and move Kerfoot up to the 2nd line like Carlton suggested.

Yup. Things get tighter in the playoffs, sure, but the Leafs also have to tighten up defensively, and Nash could be a huge help there. He needs to get into games before we throw him at the high-end forwards the team could see if they advance. Better to do it against less dangerous individual competition like the Habs.

 

[L K]

2/5 of our PP can't put the puck in the net.  Marner and Rielly have combined for 1 goal on the PP this year.  They have a combined shooting percentage of 2% and the best team in the league has a .900 SV% on the PP.

It really doesn't help with the two guys who touch the puck the most on the PP aren't dangerous.  Defenders can cheat off of them to take away the passing lanes to Matthews and I honestly don't know how you fix that.  The Leafs are honestly more dangerous and have better movement on a lot of their 5 on 5 cycling shifts.

We know fewer PPs will be called in the postseason and the Leafs already don't get a lot of opportunities so:

They are also second in the league on 5 on 5 scoring and are only 1 goal behind the Golden Knights for first with a game in hand so we are a pretty deadly 5 on 5 scoring team and that should work out favourably for the Leafs in the postseason.  I think we have heard people talk about Montreal's 5on5 scoring a lot. We have 24 more goals than them at even strength.

EVEN STRENGTH
5on5 - 124 goals for, 91 goals against
4on4 - 3 goals for, 0 goals against
3on3 - 5 goals for, 6 goals against

6on5 - 5 goals for, 2 goals against
6on4 - 0 goals for, 1 goal against
6on3 - 0 goals for, 0 goals against
5on4 - 27 goals for, 5 goals against
5on3 - 3 goals for, 0 goals against
4on3 - 0 goals for, 0 goals against

3vs4 - 0 goals for, 1 goal against
3vs5 - 0 goals for, 3 goals against
3vs6 - 0 goals for, 0 goals against
4vs5 - 4 goals for, 25 goals against
4vs6 - 0 goals for, 1 goal against
5vs6 - 6 goals for, 5 goals against

So at even strength the Leafs outscore their opponents 132-97
With a man advantage (PP/EN) the Leafs outscore their opponents 36-35
While short handed (PK/EN) the Leafs outscore their opponents 10-8

 

[CarltonTheBear]

There's a small, tiny part of me that is holding onto the hope that the Leafs powerplay struggles are all some sort of long con to mess with their future playoff opponents.

 

[Redleaf]

I think I know the consensus view on this but just for fun, here goes anyways...

Let?s say the Leafs plow through the first 2 rounds and make it to the final 4. How would that contrast in perception among fans if instead, let?s say they made their way into the top 4 defeating the Bruins and Lightning in a close 6 or 7 game series ?

In other words would beating teams like the Canadiens and the Oilers diminish the accomplishment somewhat? Or does it matter HOW they get there as long as they do?

 

[Kin]

You can only play the teams the league tells you to.

 

[bustaheims]

Playoff series are very rarely "easy" to win. Winning two rounds would be an accomplishment, regardless of who they beat. Other fan bases would downplay it, sure, but the team that comes out of the North would still be one of only 4 teams to do so this season.

 

[L K]

It's not super likely but the Leafs still have a shot at the President's trophy.

They are 4 points back of Vegas with two games left.  Vegas has one game remaining.  Both teams have 29 wins so a regulation loss from Vegas and two wins from the Leafs (at least one in regulation) and they would be tied at 80 points but the Leafs would hold the tie-breaker with 30 wins.

Colorado would also have to pick up no more than 1 point in their last two games.

Colorado plays the LA kings twice and Vegas plays San Jose (although probably with half a roster again because of cap constrictions).

Not very likely to happen but it could.

As for the Leafs in the playoffs...you can only play the teams that you get to play.  Do you assess the team a little differently in the offseason if they get steamrolled in the conference finals, sure but playoff wins are playoff wins.  The team needs to show progress there to continue to develop.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Playoff series are very rarely "easy" to win. Winning two rounds would be an accomplishment, regardless of who they beat. Other fan bases would downplay it, sure, but the team that comes out of the North would still be one of only 4 teams to do so this season.

There's a chance that we might need to get past a player who just had the greatest regular season of his generation and possibly in the entire history of the NHL... so yeah I don't think we should really downplay that competition.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I think I know the consensus view on this but just for fun, here goes anyways...

Let?s say the Leafs plow through the first 2 rounds and make it to the final 4. How would that contrast in perception among fans if instead, let?s say they made their way into the top 4 defeating the Bruins and Lightning in a close 6 or 7 game series ?

In other words would beating teams like the Canadiens and the Oilers diminish the accomplishment somewhat? Or does it matter HOW they get there as long as they do?

It will certainly diminish the view of non Leaf fans.

 

[herman]

I think I know the consensus view on this but just for fun, here goes anyways...

Let?s say the Leafs plow through the first 2 rounds and make it to the final 4. How would that contrast in perception among fans if instead, let?s say they made their way into the top 4 defeating the Bruins and Lightning in a close 6 or 7 game series ?

In other words would beating teams like the Canadiens and the Oilers diminish the accomplishment somewhat? Or does it matter HOW they get there as long as they do?

It will certainly diminish the view of non Leaf fans.

Who here cares what non Leaf fans think of the Leafs 

 

[Kin]

Playoff series are very rarely "easy" to win. Winning two rounds would be an accomplishment, regardless of who they beat. Other fan bases would downplay it, sure, but the team that comes out of the North would still be one of only 4 teams to do so this season.

There's a chance that we might need to get past a player who just had the greatest regular season of his generation and possibly in the entire history of the NHL... so yeah I don't think we should really downplay that competition.

Yeah. At this point some of the overconfidence I'm seeing is making me pretty nervous. Like, let's win a playoff series before we start debating whether or not we won it good enough.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Even with Price standing on his head, Nash would free up Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares.

The Leafs don't need help scoring. They need help defending. They are not getting anymore offense from Mikheyev than they could get from Nash...So, like I said above, you put the better defender in. And if we want to keep Mikheyev in for his speed, you drop Galchenyuk and move Kerfoot up to the 2nd line like Carlton suggested.

They didn't lose last year to CBJ because of defence. They couldn't score. You can never have too much offence.
I would be surprised to see Keefe sit Mikheyev who is arguably our most dependable defensive player. Mik may not score a lot but he produces more then Nash and has all of 3 less 5v5 goals then Hyman. No one on the Leafs generates as much offence killing penalties either. Nash maybe going in but I doubt it's for Mik.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Playoff series are very rarely "easy" to win. Winning two rounds would be an accomplishment, regardless of who they beat. Other fan bases would downplay it, sure, but the team that comes out of the North would still be one of only 4 teams to do so this season.

There's a chance that we might need to get past a player who just had the greatest regular season of his generation and possibly in the entire history of the NHL... so yeah I don't think we should really downplay that competition.

Yeah. At this point some of the overconfidence I'm seeing is making me pretty nervous. Like, let's win a playoff series before we start debating whether or not we won it good enough.

The habs will not be an easy out....no one will.

 

[L K]

Even with Price standing on his head, Nash would free up Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares.

The Leafs don't need help scoring. They need help defending. They are not getting anymore offense from Mikheyev than they could get from Nash...So, like I said above, you put the better defender in. And if we want to keep Mikheyev in for his speed, you drop Galchenyuk and move Kerfoot up to the 2nd line like Carlton suggested.

They didn't lose last year to CBJ because of defence. They couldn't score. You can never have too much offence.
I would be surprised to see Keefe sit Mikheyev who is arguably our most dependable defensive player. Mik may not score a lot but he produces more then Nash and has all of 3 less 5v5 goals then Hyman. No one on the Leafs generates as much offence killing penalties either.

Even though Mikheyev is basically guaranteed not to finish on those shorthanded breakaways, they are crucial opportunities to kill time off the clock and get line changes.  We *should* have Foligno and Hyman back in the lineup to help kill penalties too so between Mikheyev/Marner/Kerfoot/Foligno/Hyman/(Spezza for faceoffs) the Leafs don't really *Need* Nash although I'm sure that he will play games for the Leafs in the playoffs especially if they lose games or have injuries.

 

[L K]

Playoff series are very rarely "easy" to win. Winning two rounds would be an accomplishment, regardless of who they beat. Other fan bases would downplay it, sure, but the team that comes out of the North would still be one of only 4 teams to do so this season.

There's a chance that we might need to get past a player who just had the greatest regular season of his generation and possibly in the entire history of the NHL... so yeah I don't think we should really downplay that competition.

Yeah. At this point some of the overconfidence I'm seeing is making me pretty nervous. Like, let's win a playoff series before we start debating whether or not we won it good enough.

The habs will not be an easy out....no one will.

The only thing that has me tilting my head on the Habs right now is how mediocre they looked in the three games against us this past week.  The Leafs really weren't playing for anything and realistically the Habs weren't in danger of missing the playoffs but they really just seem like a team that is missing something fundamental for a team that still had a chance of being eliminated. Granted that might be fixed by their injured guys but I'm kind of surprised how teams don't seem to be getting into "playoff mode".

 

[Redleaf]

Playoff series are very rarely "easy" to win. Winning two rounds would be an accomplishment, regardless of who they beat. Other fan bases would downplay it, sure, but the team that comes out of the North would still be one of only 4 teams to do so this season.

There's a chance that we might need to get past a player who just had the greatest regular season of his generation and possibly in the entire history of the NHL... so yeah I don't think we should really downplay that competition.

Yeah. At this point some of the overconfidence I'm seeing is making me pretty nervous. Like, let's win a playoff series before we start debating whether or not we won it good enough.

The habs will not be an easy out....no one will.

Completely agree. But let's face it... everybody is expecting a 1st round victory. In fact, if they can't get past the Canadiens in the first round we've got a lot more discussion ahead about what kind of team these Leafs are, than we do about the confidence level of fans going into this years playoffs.

 

[Kin]

I would be surprised to see Keefe sit Mikheyev who is arguably our most dependable defensive player. Mik may not score a lot but he produces more then Nash and has all of 3 less 5v5 goals then Hyman. No one on the Leafs generates as much offence killing penalties either. Nash maybe going in but I doubt it's for Mik.

You can't always be gameplanning for the series you lost last year but even then I don't agree. The reality of playoff hockey is that no matter how much offense you have, the other team might turn things into a grind it out game. I don't know who might come out of the lineup if Nash comes in but I think the ability to play that sort of game will be better than trying to overwhelm it by having marginally better offensive players on your third line.