2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
- Thread starter herman
- Start date
bustaheims
Active member
Weird spot to put Robertson. Definitely unlikely to help his offensive production, but it does put an emphasis on him to focus on his defensive responsibilities.
louisstamos
Active member
Zee said:
I believe it's combination of a softer schedule, and math that the team is better than how they're playing.
bustaheims
Active member
louisstamos said:
Also imagine it has something to do with the reasons they started with a higher probability - like expected strength in net, their success over the last few seasons, etc.
herman
Well-known member
bustaheims said:
A good portion of the Leafs' points so far are also off of one-point games/OT stuff, which are statistically coin flips in larger samples, so not projected to be stable signs of future performance. I can't speak to specifics on how hockeyviz's modeling works, but he does show a handy view of how a team has collected its points so far.
The Leafs have a huge chunk of their points so far earned off these close games. Now I'm biased and inclined to believe the Leafs are generally good, but it's undeniable that they've been getting well-above average goaltending when Murray/Samsonov are on. Our projection is spiking with the awakening of Marner and Matthews' offense, which it appears hockeyviz's model values quite a bit.
I really do like hockeyviz, but something does seem just a bit off with their projections at the moment. Before Monday's game they posted their point projections graph and it had the Leafs finishing with 97 points. That would have the Leafs earning just 66 points in their remaining 59 games, which is a 0.559 points percentage. That seems pretty unlikely. They even had Boston at just 107 points, which would have them earning just 71 points in their remaining 61 games. I mean the Bruins will slow down a bit eventually (currently on pace for 141 points) but I'd be pretty shocked to see them finish before 120 points even with the start they've had.
Highlander
Active member
This; Robertson-Holmburg-Malgin
herman
Well-known member
caveman said:
https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq
When using LTIR, teams can exceed the normal cap (82.5M) by the amount of the injured player?s cap hit minus the existing team cap total?s difference from the cap ceiling.
Ex. 82.5 M ceiling, Team is at 82M when a 5M player is injured. Once LTIR is invoked, the new ceiling for that team is: 82.5M + 5M - (82.5M-82.0M) = 87.0 M
I.e. they can add 5M of annualized cap hit on their current roster provided they have the roster slots (23 max). No salary cap space is accrued by the team so long as the LTIR space is used. Any transactions with cap hits coming back are the full AAV, not the partial pro-rated amounts (left to pay) you?d normally see in trade deadline discussions.
If for whatever reason the team in LTIR dips below the original cap level at the time they invoked LTIR, let?s say they trade away a 7M player for a pick and an AHL prospect (87-7 is 2M less than the original 82), then cap space begins to accrue.
The Leafs have 13ish M on LTIR and are using just under half of it so they can add 7M right now but will have to clear it out once they have to activate Rielly.
I'm swamped with other things. Little time to watch and I've been thousands of miles away.
I'd just throw out these thoughts from checking in:
To have a team
- lose half their top six dmen - short in their top 6 dmen all season.
- break in two sort of marginal goalies - both going down with lengthy injury
- rebuilding their bottom six forwards
and they're top 3 in GAA, near the top in shots against, near the top in save% and playing .700 hockey ... that's not "normal". It is a reflection that the forwards probably have been pitching in on defense - sacrificing some offense. Hat tip to the coaching for getting them to do that.
That is the sort of characteristic you would hope to see in a good playoff team.
I haven't had time to see them enough to figure them all out but this is an unusually capable hockey team to do what they've done under the circumstances.
Still wounded/stunned by Salming's rapid demise.
I'd just throw out these thoughts from checking in:
To have a team
- lose half their top six dmen - short in their top 6 dmen all season.
- break in two sort of marginal goalies - both going down with lengthy injury
- rebuilding their bottom six forwards
and they're top 3 in GAA, near the top in shots against, near the top in save% and playing .700 hockey ... that's not "normal". It is a reflection that the forwards probably have been pitching in on defense - sacrificing some offense. Hat tip to the coaching for getting them to do that.
That is the sort of characteristic you would hope to see in a good playoff team.
I haven't had time to see them enough to figure them all out but this is an unusually capable hockey team to do what they've done under the circumstances.
Still wounded/stunned by Salming's rapid demise.
ZBBM
Active member
I'd say the team is overperforming somewhat. Those colored bar graphs herman posted are pretty telling.
They've been getting excellent goaltending from their 2 starters, and above-average from the 3rd-stringer. Sustainable? Hmmmm
And truth be told, almost all the calls have been going our way lately. It's as if the hockey gods are feeling sorry for all those years they screwed us.
They've been getting excellent goaltending from their 2 starters, and above-average from the 3rd-stringer. Sustainable? Hmmmm
And truth be told, almost all the calls have been going our way lately. It's as if the hockey gods are feeling sorry for all those years they screwed us.